Potential Crochet Trade discussion Thread

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

https://www.newsweek.com/sports/mlb/four-player-trade-proposal-sends-ace-garrett-crochet-al-east-team-1989272

I'm just the messenger

I can't Baltimore being willing to stepping up that much.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just a couple examples of mock trades proposed by non- White Sox fans. I’d say the general consensus is Crochet has more trade value than Cease had last winter.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I can't Baltimore being willing to stepping up that much.

After a second round exit and first round exit back to back years perhaps they will be. Mayo and Basallo are sort of blocked as well. 

Do they have any extra draft picks anywhere they can deal like they did for Burnes last off-season (this is why I wanted Cowser to win RoY)?

[ptatc]

30 minutes ago, JoeC said:

 

If I am to understand @ptatc's post, is it fair to say that your concern now is Crochet's not having gone through an offseason recovery after a 150-inning season, and therefore there may be a further risk of injury for 2025?
Or am I misreading / misinterpreting?

This is the unknown. What they did with him last year was a massive deviation from the typical way we have approached pitchers. Going from so few innings to his workload last season. I wouldn't have given it any chance of coming out ofnthe season without an injury.

However, it worked. After talking with people involved I can see how they approached it in a very different manner that could only have been done post ucl reconstruction. 

He came out of the season injury free. That was a huge success a very different program. I would have said his chances of injury or at least poor performance in 2025 was near 100%. But they convinced me that they have a good philosophy and plan for this year. 

So I would say I'm cautiously optimistic that he can have an injury free season based on the workload last year. Injuries can always happen to pitchers so it is a significant unknown on his chances of injury as what he did last year was unprecedented.

[JoeC]

3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

This is the unknown. What they did with him last year was a massive deviation from the typical way we have approached pitchers. Going from so few innings to his workload last season. I wouldn't have given it any chance of coming out ofnthe season without an injury.

However, it worked. After talking with people involved I can see how they approached it in a very different manner that could only have been done post ucl reconstruction. 

He came out of the season injury free. That was a huge success a very different program. I would have said his chances of injury or at least poor performance in 2025 was near 100%. But they convinced me that they have a good philosophy and plan for this year. 

So I would say I'm cautiously optimistic that he can have an injury free season based on the workload last year. Injuries can always happen to pitchers so it is a significant unknown on his chances of injury as what he did last year was unprecedented.

Understood. Thank you for the clear explanation.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

After a second round exit and first round exit back to back years perhaps they will be. Mayo and Basallo are sort of blocked as well. 

Do they have any extra draft picks anywhere they can deal like they did for Burnes last off-season (this is why I wanted Cowser to win RoY)?

If Baltimore WANTS to win a deal, I don't think anyone in baseball can beat them.  They have had multiple opportunties to do so, but have refused to so far.  If that changes, I will be thrilled.  But I just don't see it.

[EloyJenkins]

the mock ideas are going to ruin us all. i am NOT getting my hopes up that this will be a good trade. 

[Balta1701]

24 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

His strikeouts stayed high but his hits (and HR), walks, and ERA all did jump up in the second half.  Is that all due to BAbip?

No. Baseball Savant is struggling to load right now so I can't copy graphs, but while his velocity stayed high, he was genuinely hit harder in the 2nd half.

Just as an example, total exit velocity month by month:

April: 87.6
May: 86.1
June: 88.8
July: 86.7
August: 91.0
September: 89.7

Expected wOBA: 
April: .252
May: .218
June: .257
July: .265
August: .377
September: .261

All of the months other than August that expected wOBA would be a performance in the top 10% of big league pitchers. His drop-off in August was real, not just luck as that would be factored out by xwOBA, as was the mostly-recovery in September. 

[southsider2k5]

19 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

 

This feels like the part of the season we get all excited by these potential trade ideas only to get kicked in the balls, but someone's #4 prospect, #8 prospect and a 2/3 year experienced and overpaid utility player.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No. Baseball Savant is struggling to load right now so I can't copy graphs, but while his velocity stayed high, he was genuinely hit harder in the 2nd half.

Just as an example, total exit velocity month by month:

April: 87.6
May: 86.1
June: 88.8
July: 86.7
August: 91.0
September: 89.7

Expected wOBA: 
April: .252
May: .218
June: .257
July: .265
August: .377
September: .261

All of the months other than August that expected wOBA would be a performance in the top 10% of big league pitchers. His drop-off in August was real, not just luck as that would be factored out by xwOBA, as was the mostly-recovery in September. 

And still had two excellent months in the second half of the season so I wouldn’t call one bad month as justification that he hit a wall especially when September was so strong.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

https://www.newsweek.com/sports/mlb/four-player-trade-proposal-sends-ace-garrett-crochet-al-east-team-1989272

I'm just the messenger

I saw this the other day and was going to post it here, but obviously not even remotely realistic.  Mayo would be an awesome addition despite his corner profile.  And I do like Beavers as a secondary piece.  But no way they do Mayo & Basallo in the same deal.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I saw this the other day and was going to post it here, but obviously not even remotely realistic.  Mayo would be an awesome addition despite his corner profile.  And I do like Beavers as a secondary piece.  But no way they do Mayo & Basallo in the same deal.

I’d make a deal centered around Basallo and Beavers. I haven’t liked Mayo’s profile since last winter when he first came up in trade discussions.

[WhiteSox2023]

27 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I can't Baltimore being willing to stepping up that much.

Agreed.  It’s Newsweek reciting some Fansided author’s article here.

https://fansided.com/1-trade-every-al-east-team-improve-postseason-chances

[WhiteSox2023]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’d make a deal centered around Basallo and Beavers. I haven’t liked Mayo’s profile since last winter when he first came up in trade discussions.

To get 3 potential average to above average position players for 2 years of Crochet would be amazing.  I’m guessing when all is said and done (in a few years), we won’t be able to say that with whatever Crochet trade actually does go down.

Edited Thursday at 06:12 PM by WhiteSox2023

[Quin]

45 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

 

His innings pitched dropped a significant 2 innings per game, hence the "ran out of steam."

But considering you continuously argued Drew Thorpe > 2024 Dylan Cease, I don't expect much from your arguments.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 minutes ago, Quin said:

His innings pitched dropped a significant 2 innings per game, hence the "ran out of steam."

But considering you continuously argued Drew Thorpe > 2024 Dylan Cease, I don't expect much from your arguments.

Dude…the team put him on innings limit. Had nothing to do with running out of steam.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

“Can’t have a Fernando Tatis trade here” 😂 

[chitownsportsfan]

26 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

No. Baseball Savant is struggling to load right now so I can't copy graphs, but while his velocity stayed high, he was genuinely hit harder in the 2nd half.

Just as an example, total exit velocity month by month:

April: 87.6
May: 86.1
June: 88.8
July: 86.7
August: 91.0
September: 89.7

Expected wOBA: 
April: .252
May: .218
June: .257
July: .265
August: .377
September: .261

All of the months other than August that expected wOBA would be a performance in the top 10% of big league pitchers. His drop-off in August was real, not just luck as that would be factored out by xwOBA, as was the mostly-recovery in September. 

As I said at the time. He had like a 99th percentile season. I'd love to keep watching him on the South Side but the smart thing to do is sell at absolute peak value. Of which he is at. He has much more value than Cease. Cease is a nice pitcher. Garrett right now is one of the 3-5 best pitchers in MLB.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

As I said at the time. He had like a 99th percentile season. I'd love to keep watching him on the South Side but the smart thing to do is sell at absolute peak value. Of which he is at. He has much more value than Cease. Cease is a nice pitcher. Garrett right now is one of the 3-5 best pitchers in MLB.

Agreed. Crochet is an absolute monster. And is going to cost, what, a total of $12-15M for the next two seasons?? The only question has always been health, and I think he did a lot to dispel those concerns this past season.

[WhiteSox2023]

33 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

 

Very nice on quantity but where’s the HBK, the SHOWSTOPPA?!?  I need someone better than Crawford to be that guy in a Crochet trade.

Abel walks the world and Arroyo is tiny like Dominic Fletcher.  Tait and Peete are so young, who knows which way they go?

[46DidIt]

Crochet had a 32/2 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 17 innings. Not sure how you do that having run out of steam

[chitownsportsfan]

8 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

Crochet had a 32/2 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 17 innings. Not sure how you do that having run out of steam

The dude's lower body is transformed from when he came into the league. Every pitcher is an injury risk but with a surgically repaired elbow and his power and length he's as good as bet as any to give you two really strong years before you really gotta pay him. We're talking like 360 innings, 10 or so fWAR and that all important ace come playoffs.

[southsider2k5]

28 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

“Can’t have a Fernando Tatis trade here” 😂 

Actually if Bruce understood analogies, we NEED a Tatis Jr trade here where we come out of it with a superstar in the future after trading our veteran.  But C for Effort there Bruce.

[caulfield12]

22 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

As I said at the time. He had like a 99th percentile season. I'd love to keep watching him on the South Side but the smart thing to do is sell at absolute peak value. Of which he is at. He has much more value than Cease. Cease is a nice pitcher. Garrett right now is one of the 3-5 best pitchers in MLB.

It’s not like Cease is that far off…Top 2-8 performer two of last three years in MLB and a much better health profile overall.

Granted, for a playoff team to win a Game 7, you have to go with Crochet or Skubal true ace ability every time…versus being a key cog in making 30-32  starts and just getting your team to the postseason.