Potential Crochet Trade discussion Thread

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Why not both? Compete right now and maintain competitiveness for a long window like the Phillies or Dodgers?

lol, wat?  This team lost 121 games last year and will probably come into the spring with less talent than the did last year.  There will be no "compete right now" for the Chicago White Sox.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

The problem with this thinking is - the value of starting pitching going up also means that the value of prospects with 6 years of control goes up. How a team balances that isn't straightforward. A team wanting to compete right now, with a ticking clock, might see Crochet's value going up, while a team wanting to maintain competitiveness for a long window might see their prospects as even more valuable compared to a guy like Crochet.

I'm not sure why these two are correlated to you. 

Bigger guarantee short-term deals to questionable arms indicate a prioritization of the current value of a player versus the FV. 

A team trading for Crochet gets both that current value component, of which the market is telling you is worth a lot, but also a FV component to help justify moving control.

If Boyd is getting 2 years, 29 million it means crochet currently is worth like 2 years 90 million over same current value prices. 

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not sure why these two are correlated to you. 

Bigger guarantee short-term deals to questionable arms indicate a prioritization of the current value of a player versus the FV. 

A team trading for Crochet gets both that current value component, of which the market is telling you is worth a lot, but also a FV component to help justify moving control.

If Boyd is getting 2 years, 29 million it means crochet currently is worth like 2 years 90 million over same current value prices. 

If you're the orioles, what matters to you more. $60 million in future value over the next 2 years, or $80 million in future value over the next 6 years for 1 player and $50 million in future value for the second player?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're the orioles, what matters to you more. $60 million in future value over the next 2 years, or $80 million in future value over the next 6 years for 1 player and $50 million in future value for the second player?

Present dollars are always worth a lot more than future dollars imo.

A team with a deep system would be complete morons to not move 11 mil/yr over 12 years of total control versus 30+ mil/yr over the next 2. Supplementing for 11 is much easier than supplementing for 30.

One player worth 5 WAR is closer to 4 times more valuable (due to scarcity and roster share) than a player worth 2.5 WAR. finding guys like Crochet is much more challenging than finding guys like jameson taillon. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Present dollars are always worth a lot more than future dollars imo.

A team with a deep system would be complete morons to not move 11 mil/yr over 12 years of total control versus 30+ mil/yr over the next 2. Supplementing for 11 is much easier than supplementing for 30.

One player worth 5 WAR is closer to 4 times more valuable (due to scarcity and roster share) than a player worth 2.5 WAR. finding guys like Crochet is much more challenging than finding guys like jameson taillon. 

But the thing is - with the Montas deal, you're looking at a guy who put up 1.4 fWAR last year and has a projection of 1.9 fWAR next year, and was worth 0 fWAR in 2023. If that costs 2/$34 million, is it really the case for a team like Baltimore that they can afford guys like Montas? 

[southsider2k5]

20 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But the thing is - with the Montas deal, you're looking at a guy who put up 1.4 fWAR last year and has a projection of 1.9 fWAR next year, and was worth 0 fWAR in 2023. If that costs 2/$34 million, is it really the case for a team like Baltimore that they can afford guys like Montas? 

Baltimore has to worry about winning now.  If they miss this window, who knows when their next one will be.

[steveno89]

31 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're the orioles, what matters to you more. $60 million in future value over the next 2 years, or $80 million in future value over the next 6 years for 1 player and $50 million in future value for the second player?

That future value also assumes that those prospects actually pan out, which many never do 

Crochet, assuming health, looks like a strong bet to perform in the next two seasons for whoever acquires him 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

lol, wat?  This team lost 121 games last year and will probably come into the spring with less talent than the did last year.  There will be no "compete right now" for the Chicago White Sox.

lol, wat? Who said that??? I’m referring to the White Sox trade partner in a Crochet deal.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

38 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're the orioles, what matters to you more. $60 million in future value over the next 2 years, or $80 million in future value over the next 6 years for 1 player and $50 million in future value for the second player?

Considering the Orioles window is NOW, I sure hope their answer is $60M over the next two years.

I’d take it a step further. If the Orioles don’t make a deep playoff run within the next two years, this current rebuild of theirs will be a complete flop and they’ll be starting over shortly thereafter anyways..

[Chicago White Sox]

49 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not sure why these two are correlated to you. 

Bigger guarantee short-term deals to questionable arms indicate a prioritization of the current value of a player versus the FV. 

A team trading for Crochet gets both that current value component, of which the market is telling you is worth a lot, but also a FV component to help justify moving control.

If Boyd is getting 2 years, 29 million it means crochet currently is worth like 2 years 90 million over same current value prices. 

And all indications are that Crochet wants to sign an extension.  So a team trading for him potentially gets legit ace production on the cheap for two years and then another three or four (most likely) at what should be something below market cost.  The fact he’s likely a long-term addition is a huge plus for any team trading him as ace level talents are near impossible to come by in the first place and almost always inflated due to the free agency bidding process.

[Chicago White Sox]

46 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If you're the orioles, what matters to you more. $60 million in future value over the next 2 years, or $80 million in future value over the next 6 years for 1 player and $50 million in future value for the second player?

Are they actually trying to win a World Series with the core they already have in place or simply extent their playoff contention window as long as possible?

[steveno89]

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Considering the Orioles window is NOW, I sure hope their answer is $60M over the next two years.

I’d take it a step further. If the Orioles don’t make a deep playoff run within the next two years, this current rebuild of theirs will be a complete flop and they’ll be starting over shortly thereafter anyways..

Not sure how much I like the Orioles as a trade fit for the White Sox 

Their two top prospects, Mayo and Basallo are likely 1B/DH and maybe a catcher in Basallo. They each could be great players, but those are not the positions I would look for in a Crochet return. 

[Chicago White Sox]

39 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Present dollars are always worth a lot more than future dollars imo.

A team with a deep system would be complete morons to not move 11 mil/yr over 12 years of total control versus 30+ mil/yr over the next 2. Supplementing for 11 is much easier than supplementing for 30.

One player worth 5 WAR is closer to 4 times more valuable (due to scarcity and roster share) than a player worth 2.5 WAR. finding guys like Crochet is much more challenging than finding guys like jameson taillon. 

Exactly, WAR isn’t linear and a 5 win pitcher is worth considerably more than two 2.5 win players at the same cost.  And that’s before you factor in the value of having an elite SP in the post-season who can greatly reduce some of the luck factor in October.  Balta is greatly underestimating Crochet’s value.

[Chicago White Sox]

39 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But the thing is - with the Montas deal, you're looking at a guy who put up 1.4 fWAR last year and has a projection of 1.9 fWAR next year, and was worth 0 fWAR in 2023. If that costs 2/$34 million, is it really the case for a team like Baltimore that they can afford guys like Montas? 

They have new ownership…they can afford guys like Montas.  The question is can they afford guys like Burnes on a long-term deal.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

25 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Not sure how much I like the Orioles as a trade fit for the White Sox 

Their two top prospects, Mayo and Basallo are likely 1B/DH and maybe a catcher in Basallo. They each could be great players, but those are not the positions I would look for in a Crochet return. 

I agree with you. I think the Red Sox and Phillies are far better matches for Crochet.

[southsider2k5]

45 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And all indications are that Crochet wants to sign an extension.  So a team trading for him potentially gets legit ace production on the cheap for two years and then another three or four (most likely) at what should be something below market cost.  The fact he’s likely a long-term addition is a huge plus for any team trading him as ace level talents are near impossible to come by in the first place and almost always inflated due to the free agency bidding process.

I don't know if WANTS is the word I would use, it seemed more like willing to do so if he got enough money up front.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I don't know if WANTS is the word I would use, it seemed more like willing to do so if he got enough money up front.

I think he realizes he needs to capitalize off his Y24 season and push for an extension now or risking losing out on a ton of money.  I’m expecting this to be similar to what happened with Glasnow to the Dodgers, but not with it being a requirement to the trade since he stills comes with two cheap years of control.

[steveno89]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think he realizes he needs to capitalize off his Y24 season and push for an extension now or risking losing out on a ton of money.  I’m expecting this to be similar to what happened with Glasnow to the Dodgers, but not with it being a requirement to the trade since he stills comes with two cheap years of control.

The extension is tricky, as there is arguably more risk for the club than reward with him being two seasons away from free agency

There would have to be an element of team friendliness to the deal I would imagine?

[46DidIt]

On 11/28/2024 at 10:11 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Another RHH 1b/DH type. Not the kind of guy I want leading this trade.

Another? I guess I don’t see all those quality firstbasemen in the organization. The Sox need the best bats they can get. They currently have none at any position. 

 

3 hours ago, scotty22hotty said:

cease was projected to be a top 10 pitcher and ended up #5 on fangraphs. Sox got a 90mph SP with bone spurs for him after the brewers got Ortiz. every GM is going to lowball Getz because they know he cant properly negotiate.

not getting my hopes up 🤷‍♂️

Bones spurs are an easily resolved condition though that should have no effect after healing

[southsider2k5]

29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think he realizes he needs to capitalize off his Y24 season and push for an extension now or risking losing out on a ton of money.  I’m expecting this to be similar to what happened with Glasnow to the Dodgers, but not with it being a requirement to the trade since he stills comes with two cheap years of control.

I think he would like to realize some of that money up front for sure, but how much of a haircut is he going to be willing to take on his free agent years is the question.

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Present dollars are always worth a lot more than future dollars imo.

A team with a deep system would be complete morons to not move 11 mil/yr over 12 years of total control versus 30+ mil/yr over the next 2. Supplementing for 11 is much easier than supplementing for 30.

One player worth 5 WAR is closer to 4 times more valuable (due to scarcity and roster share) than a player worth 2.5 WAR. finding guys like Crochet is much more challenging than finding guys like jameson taillon. 

Good Point!

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

Another? I guess I don’t see all those quality firstbasemen in the organization. The Sox need the best bats they can get. They currently have none at any position. 

 

Bones spurs are an easily resolved condition though that should have no effect after healing

And Vaughn was supposed to be that quality RHH 1b. I don’t want another Vaughn, even if it’s a slightly improved version.

[46DidIt]

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And Vaughn was supposed to be that quality RHH 1b. I don’t want another Vaughn, even if it’s a slightly improved version.

So was Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko supposed to be quality RH 1b. Obviously almost any prospect could bust, but unlike Vaughn, Mayo actually successfully developed in minors prior to reaching the majors. I don’t thinking getting a right hand bat is that bad of an idea, either, since all of our top prospects aside from Ramos hit left handed. 

[46DidIt]

Mayo also with significantly more power than Vaughn was ever projected to have. I guess I just don’t see why just because Vaughn sucks that it follows that the Sox shouldn’t acquire another first baseman. Obviously if we could get a comparable bat at SS that would be preferable but good luck with that.

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And Vaughn was supposed to be that quality RHH 1b. I don’t want another Vaughn, even if it’s a slightly improved version.

So you will ignore the fact there are really valuable RH 1B in baseball because the one we drafted failed?