Potential Crochet Trade discussion Thread

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

23 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

So was Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko supposed to be quality RH 1b. Obviously almost any prospect could bust, but unlike Vaughn, Mayo actually successfully developed in minors prior to reaching the majors. I don’t thinking getting a right hand bat is that bad of an idea, either, since all of our top prospects aside from Ramos hit left handed. 

And I don’t recall Frank Thomas or Paul Konerko striking out like Coby Mayo does at any level. His K rate is a huge red flag imo. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So you will ignore the fact there are really valuable RH 1B in baseball because the one we drafted failed?

Unless he’s the second coming of Pete Alonso, that RHH 1b with a high K rate just isn’t that valuable. Even then, Alonso has only averaged 3.3 fWAR/162 games played in his career. Good but not great. And this is a guy that drops ~40 bombs each season.

Edited December 2 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Lyle Moooton]

31 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Unless he’s the second coming of Pete Alonso, that RHH 1b with a high K rate just isn’t that valuable. Even then, Alonso has only averaged 3.3 fWAR/162 games played in his career. Good but not great. And this is a guy that drops ~40 bombs each season.

Alonso’s k-rate also isn’t really that high. 

[Nardiwashere]

I can't do another offseason where weird Orioles fans come here to post 3,000 times to tell us our SP is worth only like Jud Fabian.  Please trade him quickly to Boston or someone else.  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

11 minutes ago, Lyle Moooton said:

Alonso’s k-rate also isn’t really that high. 

True, it isn’t that high. His career MLB K rate (~23%) is below Mayo’s career Milb K rate (~25%).

[Bob Sacamano]

28 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

I can't do another offseason where weird Orioles fans come here to post 3,000 times to tell us our SP is worth only like Jud Fabian.  Please trade him quickly to Boston or someone else.  

Go to the Red Sox and dominate the O’s every time.

[Balta1701]

36 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Go to the Red Sox and dominate the O’s every time.

Because no one has ever been annoyed by....Red Sox fans. 

[Texsox]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because no one has ever been annoyed by....Red Sox fans. 

I liked them better before they won a title and were just the Yankee's bitches. 

[Bob Sacamano]

30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Because no one has ever been annoyed by....Red Sox fans. 

Do their fans flood our message board

[46DidIt]

1 hour ago, Lyle Moooton said:

Alonso’s k-rate also isn’t really that high. 

Alonso was less advanced as a prospect than Mayo. At age 21-22, Alonso had only 47 ABs above A ball. At the same age, Mayo had 287 ABs at AA and 552 at AAA. And put up OPS of .974 and .964. That .964 mainly at AAA was at same age Alonso was still mostly at high A with lesser numbers

[46DidIt]

Age 22 Pete Alonso had 71/22 K/BB rate in 346 PA at high A

Coby Mayo at AAA had 97/41 K/BB rate in 390 PA

 

considering Mayo two full levels higher, I would argue that would favor Mayo in comparison

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

Alonso was less advanced as a prospect than Mayo. At age 21-22, Alonso had only 47 ABs above A ball. At the same age, Mayo had 287 ABs at AA and 552 at AAA. And put up OPS of .974 and .964. That .964 mainly at AAA was at same age Alonso was still mostly at high A with lesser numbers

Mayo has very similar minor league numbers to Robert at similar ages albeit with more ABs because even in the minors Robert had trouble staying healthy. The one concern many had with Robert in the minors was his strikeout rate, which also happens to be very similar to Mayo’s. Robert has been a good but not great hitter in mlb and still has strikeout issues. The problem is Robert’s career 790 OPS in MLB wouldn’t play all that well if he was an average defensive 1b like I expect from Mayo. Yes, it would be an upgrade from Vaughn but not a game changer by any means.

[46DidIt]

The. you’ve got the fact Mayo has a plus plus arm, so he has another tool all three of Thomas, Konerko and Alonso lacked. Theoretically he could stick at third. Not really an option for Alonso

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

Age 22 Pete Alonso had 71/22 K/BB rate in 346 PA at high A

Coby Mayo at AAA had 97/41 K/BB rate in 390 PA

 

considering Mayo two full levels higher, I would argue that would favor Mayo in comparison

And at age 24, there is a slim to none chance Mayo has 53 bombs and .941 OPS like Alonso did

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

10 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

The. you’ve got the fact Mayo has a plus plus arm, so he has another tool all three of Thomas, Konerko and Alonso lacked. Theoretically he could stick at third. Not really an option for Alonso

^admittedly, I haven’t seen Mayo play 3b but I saw an awful lot of these types of posts from Orioles fans over the last two months of the season. Sounds to me like he isn’t even serviceable at 3b without dramatic improvements.

[46DidIt]

At age 21, Mayo walked 93 times between AA and AAA in 614 PA. 
 

Robert walked 28 times in 551 PA. Come on, now, that’s not even comparable

[46DidIt]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And at age 24, there is a slim to none chance Mayo has 53 bombs and .941 OPS like Alonso did

Besides the elimination of the juiced ball, I’m not sure how you arrived at that conclusion. He clearly compares favorably to Alonso at the same age

[46DidIt]

And good luck trading for the equivalent of a 21 year old Luis Robert anyway

[PaleAleSox]

22 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

And good luck trading for the equivalent of a 21 year old Luis Robert anyway

A lot of 21 year olds in the minors ready to have disappointing careers. 

[46DidIt]

11 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

^admittedly, I haven’t seen Mayo play 3b but I saw an awful lot of these types of posts from Orioles fans over the last two months of the season. Sounds to me like he isn’t even serviceable at 3b without dramatic improvements.

Youre probably right there, but he only played 68 innings at 3rd for O’s, so not sure how sound their conclusions could be based off that. These guys seem to think he’s third baseman though, in this clip prior to his call up, in which they discuss whether he is too good to trade: 

 

[46DidIt]

15 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said:

A lot of 21 year olds in the minors ready to have disappointing careers. 

Well yeah that’s the issue with trading for prospects 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

17 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

And good luck trading for the equivalent of a 21 year old Luis Robert anyway

Congrats on earning your new badge. You make good points as does your opponent.

Of course the point is you have to try to maximize future value by trying to get players that can maximize their worth with multiple tools at the most valuable positions.

On the other hand we can make arguments against any player but the Sox aren't exactly in a position to turn down top prospects from any organization.

The teams that truly want Crochet and value current success against future unknowns will step up.

Prospects for the most part are fools gold or usually require time to reach their potential if they ever do.

If the Red Sox are the frontrunners for Soto their next quest could be Crochet if they envision him as the new Sale. They'll cling to certain prospects like they did with Devers but they will have to part with some high quality position talent to land Crochet unless they prefer spending $800M+ this off-season.

[SCCWS]

12 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Congrats on earning your new badge. You make good points as does your opponent.

Of course the point is you have to try to maximize future value by trying to get players that can maximize their worth with multiple tools at the most valuable positions.

On the other hand we can make arguments against any player but the Sox aren't exactly in a position to turn down top prospects from any organization.

The teams that truly want Crochet and value current success against future unknowns will step up.

Prospects for the most part are fools gold or usually require time to reach their potential if they ever do.

If the Red Sox are the frontrunners for Soto their next quest could be Crochet if they envision him as the new Sale. They'll cling to certain prospects like they did with Devers but they will have to part with some high quality position talent to land Crochet unless they prefer spending $800M+ this off-season.

I don't think the Red Sox are the frontrunners for Soto. I think the New York teams will battle it out . So I think Crochet is the trade the Red Sox will want. They just need to squeeze the Red Sox for a Number 1 attraction in their package not Abreu as a Number 1. If Red Sox do get Soto, I think Boston will go for a lesser SP target than Crochet.

[Chicago White Sox]

51 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

I don't think the Red Sox are the frontrunners for Soto. I think the New York teams will battle it out . So I think Crochet is the trade the Red Sox will want. They just need to squeeze the Red Sox for a Number 1 attraction in their package not Abreu as a Number 1. If Red Sox do get Soto, I think Boston will go for a lesser SP target than Crochet.

Will they be willing to give up Mayer or Campbell as the headliner?

[Lyle Moooton]

1 hour ago, SCCWS said:

I don't think the Red Sox are the frontrunners for Soto. I think the New York teams will battle it out . So I think Crochet is the trade the Red Sox will want. They just need to squeeze the Red Sox for a Number 1 attraction in their package not Abreu as a Number 1. If Red Sox do get Soto, I think Boston will go for a lesser SP target than Crochet.

I think the opposite. If they get Soto they’re going to want to upgrade pitching with limited money and one less open spot on the field for prospects to fill.  If they don’t get Soto they can reallocate those funds to a Fried, Burnes, etc and plug LF internally.