Potential Crochet Trade discussion Thread

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 12/6/2024 at 1:17 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

Yep, and those extensions sure paid off…

I dont understand your point. My point was prospects get extended all the time, not just Sox prospects ,so how it turned out for the examples I used  doesn't even matter.

Crochet is the most valuable tradable pitcher on the market .His peripherals are off the charts. He has 2 yrs left where a bad injury could be extremely costly to him. He may want to signn an extension right away to minimize that risk same as he did at the trade deadline. That feasible isn't it ? Even if you don't like the idea of giving a team a 48 hr window to sign him to an extension, how much  surplus value is it worth to be the team that has 1st shot at resigning him ? He a proven major League pitcher at the top of his game and you have him for 2 years. What's that worth now $30M-$40M per year ? I'll guess his surplus value is close to $100M Just for the 2 years and the chance to extend him .Exclusive negotiation rights.

How do they calculate surplus or future value for prospects with full service time ranked anywhere from 1 to 100 and beyond ? What is  proven value of a star pitcher worth per year over an unproven position prospect ? In the past they've calculated based on the prospects' grade like 45, 50 FV . I'm just trying to establish everyone's value to justify saying we deserve a haul even with these teams position player top prospects hugging. It makes it so much harder to evaluate trades given the huge disparity among fans on the Cease trade . The most vocal are always the ones who are unhappiest with it and yell "Getz better get a haul this time , he didn't get enough for Cease."

Everyone wants a haul but when I say damn right he's worth a haul  people want to argue that the chance to extend him, be it right away or a year from now , isnt worth as much as I think it is. Of course if you wait a year he may decide " f*** you , you didn't want to extend me right away  and I just pitched great for you so I'll just bet on myself now that I successfully completed another year and made myself possibly $100M more valuable by knocking off 50% of the time before I become a free agent. If I stay healthy 1 more year and pitch great again I might get $500M  but hey you couldve had me an extra year but you blew it" . There's still plenty of doubt out there about Crochet because of his health history and how he'll do the year after pitching the most innings he ever had.

These teams always find a reason to say you don't deserve more. Cease was healthy but oh no he had a down year which effectively  lowered his value. Crochet was as close as you can get to a stud for a guy who pitched way more innings than he ever had before and he had no health problems whatsoever. Everyone was screaming about shutting him down once he got knocked around a bit in August. But he came back very strong in September.

I'd be surprised if he's traded at the Winter Meetings. Getz is asking for a haul like our fans want but these other teams all scream it's too much , we aren't giving up our top prospects.

If everything goes right for Crochet he could be the 1st $500M starting pitcher .If a lot goes wrong he could be like Rodon was when he signed for $3M .

[poppysox]

6 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I did think Madrigal would be better than he was after his first two seasons with the Sox, but you could see the issues with his game immediately.  He was definitely not a very fast baserunner so it made you wonder how he was ever going to consistently beat out all those bunts, groundballs, and choppers for hits.

He was graded by major league scouts as the most complete hitter in his year's draft class.  Others claimed he was the player closest to major league-ready.  Injuries and whatever have made it look like a bad pick that hasn't worked out.  I think Moncada is a far bigger miss'  All of this missing on draft picks is one of the reasons I would prefer our guys be major league-ready rather than 3 or 4 years away.

[T R U]

3 minutes ago, poppysox said:

He was graded by major league scouts as the most complete hitter in his year's draft class.  Others claimed he was the player closest to major league-ready.  Injuries and whatever have made it look like a bad pick that hasn't worked out.  I think Moncada is a far bigger miss'  All of this missing on draft picks is one of the reasons I would prefer our guys be major league-ready rather than 3 or 4 years away.

But Moncada was a AA player who was major league ready. There is no fool proof plan here.

[Bob Sacamano]

10 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I dont understand your point. My point was prospects get extended all the time, not just Sox prospects ,so how it turned out for the examples I used  doesn't even matter.

Crochet is the most valuable tradable pitcher on the market .His peripherals are off the charts. He has 2 yrs left where a bad injury could be extremely costly to him. He may want to signn an extension right away to minimize that risk same as he did at the trade deadline. That feasible isn't it ? Even if you don't like the idea of giving a team a 48 hr window to sign him to an extension, how much  surplus value is it worth to be the team that has 1st shot at resigning him ? He a proven major League pitcher at the top of his game and you have him for 2 years. What's that worth now $30M-$40M per year ? I'll guess his surplus value is close to $100M Just for the 2 years and the chance to extend him .Exclusive negotiation rights.

How do they calculate surplus or future value for prospects with full service time ranked anywhere from 1 to 100 and beyond ? What is  proven value of a star pitcher worth per year over an unproven position prospect ? In the past they've calculated based on the prospects' grade like 45, 50 FV . I'm just trying to establish everyone's value to justify saying we deserve a haul even with these teams position player top prospects hugging. It makes it so much harder to evaluate trades given the huge disparity among fans on the Cease trade . The most vocal are always the ones who are unhappiest with it and yell "Getz better get a haul this time , he didn't get enough for Cease."

Everyone wants a haul but when I say damn right he's worth a haul  people want to argue that the chance to extend him, be it right away or a year from now , isnt worth as much as I think it is. Of course if you wait a year he may decide " f*** you , you didn't want to extend me right away  and I just pitched great for you so I'll just bet on myself now that I successfully completed another year and made myself possibly $100M more valuable by knocking off 50% of the time before I become a free agent. If I stay healthy 1 more year and pitch great again I might get $500M  but hey you couldve had me an extra year but you blew it" . There's still plenty of doubt out there about Crochet because of his health history and how he'll do the year after pitching the most innings he ever had.

These teams always find a reason to say you don't deserve more. Cease was healthy but oh no he had a down year which effectively  lowered his value. Crochet was as close as you can get to a stud for a guy who pitched way more innings than he ever had before and he had no health problems whatsoever. Everyone was screaming about shutting him down once he got knocked around a bit in August. But he came back very strong in September.

I'd be surprised if he's traded at the Winter Meetings. Getz is asking for a haul like our fans want but these other teams all scream it's too much , we aren't giving up our top prospects.

If everything goes right for Crochet he could be the 1st $500M starting pitcher .If a lot goes wrong he could be like Rodon was when he signed for $3M .

Could easily see the bolded happening. I'm trying not to get too excited like last year.

[poppysox]

22 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I was a Madrigal fan, but he makes Robert and Moncada, and Eloy look like Cal Ripken.

Yes...a major disappointment.  More or less why I stopped discussing him about two years ago.

[WhiteSox2023]

30 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

BA is not that important. For those of us not still stuck in the 50s and for those of us who dont spend most of our days yelling at kids to get off our lawn, OBP and SLG are better correlated with offensive production.

And .274 isn't super great anyway, it's like a 55 hitter....far from the Mr. 3000 t-shirts your boy was wearing.

Let's have him hit .315 to .320 a few years in a row and then we can talk.

Hey @SoCalChiSox…

[poppysox]

7 minutes ago, T R U said:

But Moncada was a AA player who was major league ready. There is no fool proof plan here.

Correct... there is nothing guaranteed whichever plan people prefer.  That's why I don't try to debate with people who disagree.  I will get what the baseball professionals decide and try to see their reasoning.

[PaleAleSox]

Has a single thing happened today? 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

21 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said:

Has a single thing happened today? 

I pooped a couple times.

[PaleAleSox]

6 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I pooped a couple times.

Proud of you. 

[MiddleCoastBias]

14 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I pooped a couple times.

Be careful or you'll summon hi8is

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

I would build this deal on two really solid guys who are ready to play on opening day.  Perhaps they are blocked because of the star players in front of them.  We desperately need players who make the team watchable.  Those big-name free agents get added when you are already good.  Those future star guys won't put a single fanny in a seat.

Making the team watchable should be the least of our concerns when it comes to a Crochet trade.  Getting the best, highest ceiling talent should be the main priority, although I would prefer some near-term proximity all else being equal.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, T R U said:

But Moncada was a AA player who was major league ready. There is no fool proof plan here.

FWIW, in 2017 Moncada did not look ready when he was called up. He wasn't called up because he was performing well at AAA, he was called up because Hahn traded Frazier and open spots meant high level prospects must come up. He had a lot of work to do and a really rough 2018.

[poppysox]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Making the team watchable should be the least of our concerns when it comes to a Crochet trade.  Getting the best, highest ceiling talent should be the main priority, although I would prefer some near-term proximity all else being equal.

If we don't see talent on the field very soon this board will be a ghost town.  As I said in an earlier post...the Cubs survived being last place awful for years but they had stars like Banks, Williams, and Santo to keep young fans thinking a great team is just around the corner.  Lots of hitting and homers.  Today those types of players would be unattainable for this club wanting to run a 50 M payroll.  Whatever method ownership wants to use going forward...it needs to put something entertaining on the field.

[southsider2k5]

19 minutes ago, poppysox said:

If we don't see talent on the field very soon this board will be a ghost town.  As I said in an earlier post...the Cubs survived being last place awful for years but they had stars like Banks, Williams, and Santo to keep young fans thinking a great team is just around the corner.  Lots of hitting and homers.  Today those types of players would be unattainable for this club wanting to run a 50 M payroll.  Whatever method ownership wants to use going forward...it needs to put something entertaining on the field.

There is zero chance the 2025 White Sox will be "entertaining".  Even with Crochet and Robert they were the worst team in the history of baseball.   Keeping them just makes the time until getting good again even longer, because we will soon be losing them for nothing if we don't trade them.

[Insert picture of a Vette in a sinkhole here]

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, poppysox said:

If we don't see talent on the field very soon this board will be a ghost town.  As I said in an earlier post...the Cubs survived being last place awful for years but they had stars like Banks, Williams, and Santo to keep young fans thinking a great team is just around the corner.  Lots of hitting and homers.  Today those types of players would be unattainable for this club wanting to run a 50 M payroll.  Whatever method ownership wants to use going forward...it needs to put something entertaining on the field.

This team will not be entertaining next year.  Not trying to be a dick, but I’d recommend finding something else to keep yourself busy if you’re looking for an enjoyable product.  Hopefully we won’t be historically bad though.

[PaleAleSox]

They could be entertaining in a “oh these

kids are showing a lot of heart” kind of way. 

[poppysox]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This team will not be entertaining next year.  Not trying to be a dick, but I’d recommend finding something else to keep yourself busy if you’re looking for an enjoyable product.  Hopefully we won’t be historically bad though.

I believe you can build for the future while entertaining in the present.  Minor league teams mostly draw fans with no stars to draw the customers.  This team can bring up two or more of their top-tier prospects.  They can sign some affordable over-the-hill additions like Veeck did with the 1977 team.   It's not me I'm worried about.  It's the kids who will find something else to keep them busy.  No fans...no game eventually.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I believe you can build for the future while entertaining in the present.  Minor league teams mostly draw fans with no stars to draw the customers.  This team can bring up two or more of their top-tier prospects.  They can sign some affordable over-the-hill additions like Veeck did with the 1977 team.   It's not me I'm worried about.  It's the kids who will find something else to keep them busy.  No fans...no game eventually.

You let me know who they are.

[WhiteSox2023]

Not that this is news, but I’m guessing the Yankees aren’t truly in on Crochet…

 

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I believe you can build for the future while entertaining in the present.  Minor league teams mostly draw fans with no stars to draw the customers.  This team can bring up two or more of their top-tier prospects.  They can sign some affordable over-the-hill additions like Veeck did with the 1977 team.   It's not me I'm worried about.  It's the kids who will find something else to keep them busy.  No fans...no game eventually.

But again, why rush our top prospects if they aren’t ready and burn valuable service time?  Does having Montgomery & Quero up a few months really change anything in terms of long-term attendance?

[poppysox]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You let me know who they are.

Hopefully, Quero, Montgomery, Schultz Smith, and Elder would all potentially make the 2025 roster.  MLB thinks so.

[poppysox]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But again, why rush our top prospects if they aren’t ready and burn valuable service time?  Does having Montgomery & Quero up a few months really change anything in terms of long-term attendance?

It changes a fan's interest in watching a game occasionally.  I presume the major league coaches are the best we have so I'm not buying the lack of development argument.  Service time is an ongoing discussion that I see both sides of.

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Hopefully, Quero, Montgomery, Schultz Smith, and Elder would all potentially make the 2025 roster.  MLB thinks so.

2 of those guys are years away.  1 was awful last year.  The other 2 weren't good enough to merit a September call up.

[bighurt574]

2 hours ago, poppysox said:

He was graded by major league scouts as the most complete hitter in his year's draft class.  Others claimed he was the player closest to major league-ready.  Injuries and whatever have made it look like a bad pick that hasn't worked out.  I think Moncada is a far bigger miss'  All of this missing on draft picks is one of the reasons I would prefer our guys be major league-ready rather than 3 or 4 years away.

Weak draft class but it’s a bit mind boggling that Madrigal was pretty much a consensus top 5 pick (it’s not like the Sox reached) given his limitations.  Everything would have had to go really right for him to live up to that draft slot.