Potential Crochet Trade discussion Thread

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

C/1B hence the young Carlos Santana reference

But that’s the same problem for Mayo then, you’ve just turned him into what, a 2.5 War player?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But that’s the same problem for Mayo then, you’ve just turned him into what, a 2.5 War player?

All else being equal, it’s much harder to find a guy that can C/1b/DH than a guy that can 1b/DH. Plus, Basallo is younger and hasn’t starting accruing mlb service time, both positives over Mayo in my eyes.

Oh, I also like that Basallo hits lefty and strikes out less than Mayo. I think his bat will translate to mlb better than Mayo’s.

Edited 13 hours ago by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[2Deep]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Based on scouting reports, videos I’ve seen of him, his athleticism for his size, and the fact he can play a bad, but passable 3B.  Why do you think his defense at 1B would be bad?  You are the first person I have ever seen make that claim.

I'm not familiar with Mayo's game.

From what you all are describing about mayo......is this Jake Burger 2.0?  OR he's better......if so why?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

 

Vaughn made 4 errors in 2024 for reference.

Thanks for sharing this.  That being said, I’m not overly concerned about his long-term potential at 1B as most of his errors at 3B have been of the throwing nature.

[Chicago White Sox]

14 minutes ago, 2Deep said:

I'm not familiar with Mayo's game.

From what you all are describing about mayo......is this Jake Burger 2.0?  OR he's better......if so why?

Mayo is going to draw a lot more walks than Burger and I think he’ll eventually be a 40 HR hitter.  I think he’s going to be a legit impact bat when it’s all said and done.  Being a 1B obviously caps his value, but I think he’ll end up being a 3+ win player year-in, year-out.

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Mayo is going to draw a lot more walks than Burger and I think he’ll eventually be a 40 HR hitter.  I think he’s going to be a legit impact bat when it’s all said and done.  Being a 1B obviously caps his value, but I think he’ll end up being a 3+ win player year-in, year-out.

This team needs power from anywhere.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 hours ago, SCCWS said:

I don't think the Red Sox are the frontrunners for Soto. I think the New York teams will battle it out . So I think Crochet is the trade the Red Sox will want. They just need to squeeze the Red Sox for a Number 1 attraction in their package not Abreu as a Number 1. If Red Sox do get Soto, I think Boston will go for a lesser SP target than Crochet.

There's been a lot smoke around Red Sox. A real lot but your guess is as good as mine.

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

This team needs power from anywhere.

This too.  A 6 year Jake Burger is worth a lot more to this team than a 3 year Jake Burger starting to hit his arb years.

[steveno89]

50 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Mayo is going to draw a lot more walks than Burger and I think he’ll eventually be a 40 HR hitter.  I think he’s going to be a legit impact bat when it’s all said and done.  Being a 1B obviously caps his value, but I think he’ll end up being a 3+ win player year-in, year-out.

What you are talking about is his ceiling

What is not talked about is the floor and likely result 

Again, Mayo could be a big time stud...but if he cannot stick on the field defensively, he really would need to rake to have much value as a DH type 

Not going to crucify a 22 year old for a 17 game cup of coffee at the MLB level, but he was totally overmatched, striking out nearly 50% of his at bats. Lets not pretend he is ready to mash the MLB right away. 

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Thanks for sharing this.  That being said, I’m not overly concerned about his long-term potential at 1B as most of his errors at 3B have been of the throwing nature.

6 errors in 20 games is pretty brutal for first base. I’d be curious to see the nature of those errors. Not many throws being made unless you are trying to turn a DP or trying to flip to a pitcher. Is he just booting that many grounders?

[Chicago White Sox]

17 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

This team needs power from anywhere.

And don’t get me wrong, I can understand not wanting a 1B as the centerpiece of a Crochet trade, but acting like a 3 win 1B is somehow not valuable is what I’m really arguing against.  Over the past three years, there have been 70 to 80 positional players each season who achieved 3+ wins.  That’s less than three players per team in an average year.  I get we all want a potential star as the centerpiece for Crochet and we should certainly push for that, but I think there is considerable value in getting a legit stud middle of the bat that can anchor a lineup for six years that doesn’t fully get reflected in WAR.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

6 errors in 20 games is pretty brutal for first base. I’d be curious to see the nature of those errors. Not many throws being made unless you are trying to turn a DP or trying to flip to a pitcher. Is he just booting that many grounders?

Yeah, would be interesting to see.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

6 errors in 20 games is pretty brutal for first base. I’d be curious to see the nature of those errors. Not many throws being made unless you are trying to turn a DP or trying to flip to a pitcher. Is he just booting that many grounders?

Especially because it seems to be an outlier with the rest of his time at 1B.,

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

15 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And don’t get me wrong, I can understand not wanting a 1B as the centerpiece of a Crochet trade, but acting like a 3 win 1B is somehow not valuable is what I’m really arguing against.  Over the past three years, there have been 70 to 80 positional players each season who achieved 3+ wins.  That’s less than three players per team in an average year.  I get we all want a potential star as the centerpiece for Crochet and we should certainly push for that, but I think there is considerable value in getting a legit stud middle of the bat that can anchor a lineup for six years that doesn’t fully get reflected in WAR.

I think 3 WAR is his ceiling while you think that’s his baseline. That’s why our opinions on Mayo differ so greatly. I think his baseline is an annual 1 WAR player that’s relatively easy to replace and his floor is much lower than that (see 2024 SSS). Only time will tell.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And don’t get me wrong, I can understand not wanting a 1B as the centerpiece of a Crochet trade, but acting like a 3 win 1B is somehow not valuable is what I’m really arguing against.  Over the past three years, there have been 70 to 80 positional players each season who achieved 3+ wins.  That’s less than three players per team in an average year.  I get we all want a potential star as the centerpiece for Crochet and we should certainly push for that, but I think there is considerable value in getting a legit stud middle of the bat that can anchor a lineup for six years that doesn’t fully get reflected in WAR.

First base also, imo, faces an over correction in WAR and are undervalued by the statistic. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

40 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

What you are talking about is his ceiling

What is not talked about is the floor and likely result 

Again, Mayo could be a big time stud...but if he cannot stick on the field defensively, he really would need to rake to have much value as a DH type 

Not going to crucify a 22 year old for a 17 game cup of coffee at the MLB level, but he was totally overmatched, striking out nearly 50% of his at bats. Lets not pretend he is ready to mash the MLB right away. 

His 2024 MLB stint made Miguel Vargas look good comparatively 😬

[WhiteSox2023]

18 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

His 2024 MLB stint made Miguel Vargas look good comparatively 😬

Mayo had 46 plate appearances last year.

Vargas had 237 plate appearances last year with the Dodgers and the Sox, and 591 in his career to show he’s bad.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

30 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Mayo had 46 plate appearances last year.

Vargas had 237 plate appearances last year with the Dodgers and the Sox, and 591 in his career to show he’s bad.

-0.6 fWAR over 46 PAs, hard to do! Extrapolated over 237 PAs and that’s -3.1 fWAR, yikes!!

[Chicago White Sox]

39 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

His 2024 MLB stint made Miguel Vargas look good comparatively 😬

You are really anchoring off a dude’s first 46 plate appearances.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

 

[LittleHurtCG]

8 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

-0.6 fWAR over 46 PAs, hard to do! Extrapolated over 237 PAs and that’s -3.1 fWAR, yikes!!

The main piece in the Chris Sale trade also had a terrible cup of coffee before he was traded to the White Sox. Let's not make that mistake again if the Sox are hellbent on trading Crochet. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You are really anchoring off a dude’s first 46 plate appearances.

Well, when they’re that horrific, it’s concerning yes. But I also don’t like his strikeout rate in the minors or the reports I’ve read about his defense. If he’s as great and mlb ready as you’re letting on, I’m surprised the Orioles picked up O’hearn’s $8M option rather than easily filling that DH role with Mayo for league min and instead using that $8M to sign the pitching that they desperately need.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

The main piece in the Chris Sale trade also had a terrible cup of coffee before he was traded to the White Sox. Let's not make that mistake again if the Sox are hellbent on trading Crochet. 

Good point. I’m sure some will say Moncada was still a success but when you’re like me and counting the days until he’s off the roster when he still has 2+ years remaining on his contract that’s not good.

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Well, when they’re that horrific, it’s concerning yes. But I also don’t like his strikeout rate in the minors or the reports I’ve read about his defense. If he’s as great and mlb ready as you’re letting on, I’m surprised the Orioles picked up O’hearn’s $8M option rather than easily filling that DH role with Mayo for league min and instead using that $8M to sign the pitching that they desperately need.

The adjustment going from AAA to the majors is massive.  I don’t think he has anything left to learn in the minors from a hitting perspective, but it’s clear he will need to continue to develop in the majors.  How long that takes remains to be seen.  But zero reason not to pick up O’hearn’s option given he’s worth more that and can be traded if needed.

[Chicago White Sox]

28 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

The main piece in the Chris Sale trade also had a terrible cup of coffee before he was traded to the White Sox. Let's not make that mistake again if the Sox are hellbent on trading Crochet. 

Moncada overcame those issues though and put up some really nice seasons.  His eventual downfall had nothing to do with initial struggles.