Roki Sasaki Free Agency (split off from Crochet thread)

[Balta1701]

4 hours ago, WestEddy said:

If Sasaki becomes available under the 2024 period, the Sox would have to make multiple trades to for slot space to get to a competitive number. The biggest problem with Marco Paddy's folly is that we don't have a bunch of Aldrin Batistas we could trade and not miss. 

Well yeah, if he chooses the 2024 route it’s basically because he decided to go the Dodgers at a discount. While there’s a perception he might want that, it isn’t certain and there’s plenty of reason to question it.

When Ohtani signed, there was the same “oh he will probably go to the Dodgers why should anyone else try” setup and he wound up with the Angels of all teams.

If he wants $4 million from the Dodgers he can probably get that in 2024 after a trade or two. If he wants to consider multiple teams, this is a spot in a major city, where there’s clearly rebuilding but less pressure on a mid 20s player to win and be great right now as a rookie. In LAD, he’d also be the third fiddle, whereas you can make a case for More individual exposure somewhere else if he earns it. And he’s also coming off something of a down season where he lost some velocity, so do we think these coaches are actually competent at working with pitchers or not? Why shouldn’t they be on the list as at least trying?

[hi8is]

I hope he goes to the Padres.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Well yeah, if he chooses the 2024 route it’s basically because he decided to go the Dodgers at a discount. While there’s a perception he might want that, it isn’t certain and there’s plenty of reason to question it.

When Ohtani signed, there was the same “oh he will probably go to the Dodgers why should anyone else try” setup and he wound up with the Angels of all teams.

If he wants $4 million from the Dodgers he can probably get that in 2024 after a trade or two. If he wants to consider multiple teams, this is a spot in a major city, where there’s clearly rebuilding but less pressure on a mid 20s player to win and be great right now as a rookie. In LAD, he’d also be the third fiddle, whereas you can make a case for More individual exposure somewhere else if he earns it. And he’s also coming off something of a down season where he lost some velocity, so do we think these coaches are actually competent at working with pitchers or not? Why shouldn’t they be on the list as at least trying?

This honestly reads like the Dodgers are avoiding tampering charges

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

This honestly reads like the Dodgers are avoiding tampering charges

Do the normal FA tampering rules even apply when a player is international and not a member of the union?

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

I've got one source that believes Sasaki will specifically avoid the Dodgers specifically because Ohtani is already there. I don't know if he's right, but the source is someone who would know stuff.

It makes sense, in a way.

Coming off a World Series title, for both Matsumoto and Ohtani.

 

That's why the Orioles, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Padres...start to make more sense.  Every player wants to be the star on their team, right?

[WhiteSox2023]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

I've got one source that believes Sasaki will specifically avoid the Dodgers specifically because Ohtani is already there. I don't know if he's right, but the source is someone who would know stuff.

Weren’t there the same rumors about Yamamoto?

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Weren’t there the same rumors about Yamamoto?

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been friends going back to their days playing in Japan's top baseball league. Now, they're making their Major League Baseball playoff debuts together for the Los Angeles Dodgers. They teamed to win a gold medal for Japan in last year's World Baseball Classic.Oct 4, 2024.

They teamed to win a gold medal for Japan in last year’s World Baseball Classic. Their next goal? Win a World Series championship together.

“The experience back in Japan, Japan Series and the World Baseball Classic, other big games will definitely help,” Yamamoto said Friday through an interpreter. “And I’d like to utilize it.”

 

As the much younger player, Sasaki's highly unlikely to have already developed the depth of those relationships from ONE singular WBC together.

Edited November 11 by caulfield12

[bmags]

It’s so sad because even the cubs are mentioned as a team that has made a great organization for Japanese players. That of course was once the white Sox.

We really did used to have things we were the best at, now everyone would settle for just being slightly below average at most things

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

It’s so sad because even the cubs are mentioned as a team that has made a great organization for Japanese players. That of course was once the white Sox.

We really did used to have things we were the best at, now everyone would settle for just being slightly below average at most things

The bar is so low that these days, not making an obviously stupid hire is a thing to be celebrated.

[WestEddy]

16 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Well yeah, if he chooses the 2024 route it’s basically because he decided to go the Dodgers at a discount. While there’s a perception he might want that, it isn’t certain and there’s plenty of reason to question it.

When Ohtani signed, there was the same “oh he will probably go to the Dodgers why should anyone else try” setup and he wound up with the Angels of all teams.

If he wants $4 million from the Dodgers he can probably get that in 2024 after a trade or two. If he wants to consider multiple teams, this is a spot in a major city, where there’s clearly rebuilding but less pressure on a mid 20s player to win and be great right now as a rookie. In LAD, he’d also be the third fiddle, whereas you can make a case for More individual exposure somewhere else if he earns it. And he’s also coming off something of a down season where he lost some velocity, so do we think these coaches are actually competent at working with pitchers or not? Why shouldn’t they be on the list as at least trying?

Fukudome wanted to be a team's first Japanese player. Yeah, he would be a good signing. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

On 11/10/2024 at 9:44 AM, Balta1701 said:

It is utterly hilarious that someone could write this is the best case scenario for the white sox without realizing that it is an enormous insult to the White Sox

”The best case scenario is they might get something out of this because they’re so pathetic no player would ever consider them even when they are on an even financial footing with other teams. Ignore everything I said about the quality of staff and people they brought in, I was just making sure they liked me.”

Do you honestly think I said positive things because I want them to like me? I don't know any of the decision makers. I couldn't care less what anyone thinks outside of basically my family. I comment based on what I think and what I feel I know. Why would Roki Sasaki ever choose the White Sox right now if money were similar everywhere? 

On 11/10/2024 at 11:42 AM, southsider2k5 said:

The funny think is I bet the Sox have one of the largest unused pools for next year, like usual, and probably could be a leading bidder, but i doesn't matter at all.

I know that they have signings and they basically have to just go with Paddy's guys at this point anyway. I'm not sure how much they have left in their 2025 pool. 

18 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Well yeah, if he chooses the 2024 route it’s basically because he decided to go the Dodgers at a discount. While there’s a perception he might want that, it isn’t certain and there’s plenty of reason to question it.

When Ohtani signed, there was the same “oh he will probably go to the Dodgers why should anyone else try” setup and he wound up with the Angels of all teams.

If he wants $4 million from the Dodgers he can probably get that in 2024 after a trade or two. If he wants to consider multiple teams, this is a spot in a major city, where there’s clearly rebuilding but less pressure on a mid 20s player to win and be great right now as a rookie. In LAD, he’d also be the third fiddle, whereas you can make a case for More individual exposure somewhere else if he earns it. And he’s also coming off something of a down season where he lost some velocity, so do we think these coaches are actually competent at working with pitchers or not? Why shouldn’t they be on the list as at least trying?

It's not really true that the Dodgers would be a discount this year. They have like $2.5 million right now and can likely trade for at least that much more. I doubt there's anyone who can give him $4 million plus in January without reneging on previously agreed upon deals. Teams technically have fresh bonus pools but that's not really how it works. 

[hi8is]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

And what if I win the mega millions this week?

Your odds would have been more likely.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Do you honestly think I said positive things because I want them to like me? I don't know any of the decision makers. I couldn't care less what anyone thinks outside of basically my family. I comment based on what I think and what I feel I know. Why would Roki Sasaki ever choose the White Sox right now if money were similar everywhere? 

I know that they have signings and they basically have to just go with Paddy's guys at this point anyway. I'm not sure how much they have left in their 2025 pool. 

It's not really true that the Dodgers would be a discount this year. They have like $2.5 million right now and can likely trade for at least that much more. I doubt there's anyone who can give him $4 million plus in January without reneging on previously agreed upon deals. Teams technically have fresh bonus pools but that's not really how it works. 

I will say this much, if this kid is anything like Ohtani, he will make tens of millions of dollars off of the field in the next few years anyway, so his signing bonus, while nice, isn't going to be nearly his primary means of income until his second contract anyway.  Getting into a bigger Japanese community for endorsements will probably pay him a ton more than his signing bonus will.

[almagest]

It'd be WONDERFUL if they can somehow sell Sasaki on the vision that apparently resonated with Venable, and that he'd be playing on the hardest difficulty by coming here and turning around this tire fire. That is not going to happen, though.

[steveno89]

57 minutes ago, almagest said:

It'd be WONDERFUL if they can somehow sell Sasaki on the vision that apparently resonated with Venable, and that he'd be playing on the hardest difficulty by coming here and turning around this tire fire. That is not going to happen, though.

If you were him, why the hell would you sign with the White Sox? It is not even a remote consideration coming off the worst season of all time. 

[Fielder Jones]

if the white sox liked me, i'd reevaluate everything

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

I will say this much, if this kid is anything like Ohtani, he will make tens of millions of dollars off of the field in the next few years anyway, so his signing bonus, while nice, isn't going to be nearly his primary means of income until his second contract anyway.  Getting into a bigger Japanese community for endorsements will probably pay him a ton more than his signing bonus will.

The question I don't have an answer to with the Dodgers would be - would it benefit him more to be a third fiddle on that Dodgers team that has a huge amount of focus from Japanese media, or would it benefit him to have some time to grow into a superstar without the immediate focus of being a Dodger? The latter worked for Ohtani - but admittedly his first few seasons were "good" rather than spectacular, in part due to having to overcome some injury issues. Would you want to hedge against that if you were this kid? Maybe? 

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

It's not really true that the Dodgers would be a discount this year. They have like $2.5 million right now and can likely trade for at least that much more. I doubt there's anyone who can give him $4 million plus in January without reneging on previously agreed upon deals. Teams technically have fresh bonus pools but that's not really how it works. 

Every press article I've read so far says some version of "Teams would renege on previously agreed upon deals for a player like this."

Quote

Though most teams have commitments lined up for players in that period -- the top bonus pools are around $7.5 million and the bottom around $5.1 million -- they could trade for international bonus space or free up money by not honoring nonbinding commitments they have made to teenagers from Latin American countries, an infrequent but not unheard of occurrence.

For a player of Sasaki's talent, teams are likely to do whatever they can to convince him to sign.

 

[WhiteSox2023]

13 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The question I don't have an answer to with the Dodgers would be - would it benefit him more to be a third fiddle on that Dodgers team that has a huge amount of focus from Japanese media, or would it benefit him to have some time to grow into a superstar without the immediate focus of being a Dodger? The latter worked for Ohtani - but admittedly his first few seasons were "good" rather than spectacular, in part due to having to overcome some injury issues. Would you want to hedge against that if you were this kid? Maybe? 

The winning organization with one of the highest payrolls of course.

[almagest]

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

If you were him, why the hell would you sign with the White Sox? It is not even a remote consideration coming off the worst season of all time. 

That's why I said it's not going to happen. I'm just stretching to see how it would be possible in theory land.

[ron883]

5 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Do you honestly think I said positive things because I want them to like me? I don't know any of the decision makers. I couldn't care less what anyone thinks outside of basically my family. I comment based on what I think and what I feel I know. Why would Roki Sasaki ever choose the White Sox right now if money were similar everywhere? 

I know that they have signings and they basically have to just go with Paddy's guys at this point anyway. I'm not sure how much they have left in their 2025 pool. 

It's not really true that the Dodgers would be a discount this year. They have like $2.5 million right now and can likely trade for at least that much more. I doubt there's anyone who can give him $4 million plus in January without reneging on previously agreed upon deals. Teams technically have fresh bonus pools but that's not really how it works. 

This guy is worth reneging some deals for. 

[Balta1701]

4 hours ago, steveno89 said:

If you were him, why the hell would you sign with the White Sox? It is not even a remote consideration coming off the worst season of all time. 

If this was a solidly coached or run organization:

-big market that isn’t NY (rough media) or LA (Ohtani country)

-he’s still young, so there’s always some risk that he takes a few years to develop. This actually happened for Ohtani, and Yamamoto was good this year but had questionable health. 

-he had a velocity drop last year that he pitched through. Having some caution with him and not immediately going to a World Series team might be smart for his arm.

-supposedly people believe in the pitching coach and pitching coordinator here.

If he’s dead set on LAD, none of this matters. If he has some worries about his early career performance or conditioning on his arm, somewhere else would make sense, and a smart move would be to evaluate the coaching staff and organization. 

[Eminor3rd]

20 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Weren’t there the same rumors about Yamamoto?

Not that I heard. FWIW, the same source told me two years ago that the Dodgers were going to be the overwhelming favorite for Yamamoto because they had been developing a relationship with him basically since he debuted with Orix.

Regarding Sasaki, this source also mentioned that Sasaki really hit it off with Darvish during the last WBC, but that he thought that because of that, he may specifically avoid the Padres and Dodgers "out of respect for Darvish & Ohtani," seemingly implying that he thought it would be disrespectful to compete with them for the spotlight. Or something like that.

[WhiteSox2023]

5 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Not that I heard. FWIW, the same source told me two years ago that the Dodgers were going to be the overwhelming favorite for Yamamoto because they had been developing a relationship with him basically since he debuted with Orix.

Regarding Sasaki, this source also mentioned that Sasaki really hit it off with Darvish during the last WBC, but that he thought that because of that, he may specifically avoid the Padres and Dodgers "out of respect for Darvish & Ohtani," seemingly implying that he thought it would be disrespectful to compete with them for the spotlight. Or something like that.

Here’s the rumor article…

“MLB Exec: Yamamoto Doesn't Want to Be in Shohei Ohtani's 'Shadow' amid Dodgers Rumors”

[Eminor3rd]

8 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Here’s the rumor article…

“MLB Exec: Yamamoto Doesn't Want to Be in Shohei Ohtani's 'Shadow' amid Dodgers Rumors”

Interesting, hadn't heard that one