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Roki Sasaki Free Agency - White Sox have a presentation


Timmy U

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3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

No one is giving up what he is giving up to sign with the worst team of all time. It’s ludicrous to even think there is a 50;000 to 1 shot. But I do agree they should take a shot, but it’s like buying  mega ball tickets when the pot is over a billion.

Yes it was mentioned by Chris Getz that the Sox have a seat at the table to pitch Sasaki, then someone afterwards took it a step further. 

But let's take a step back and look at this objectively.

1.  The Sox history in Japan is dormant for an entire generation.   We have no scouts there, and no real history of success in the far East compared to their peers.

2. The Sox international pool is in the smaller end of the pools.  While the Sox may well have a large amount of money left over because they are one of the worst spending team internationally, but there already talks of teams revoking signings to be able to offer Sasaki more money than the Sox ever could.

3. 121 losses.

4. The Sox are very probably to be into Sasakis arbitration years before they hit .500 again.  Even if Chris Getz somehow turns the Titanic around, we are probably now into his last year or two of control when this could be a legitimate playoff operation again.  That means choosing between risking losing him for nothing or trading him to a place he didn't choose to be in.  Sasaki is smart enough to know this timeline. 

5. Chicago is in the middle of the country and doesn't have a particularly big Japanese population, especially when compared to all of the West Coast.  Even when Iguchi was here, there really was no surge of fan base from the community.  

6. The West Coast cities are 3-5 hours closer to Japan.

7. Because Sasaki has to go through the six years of control,  his primary source of income will be endorsements.  Between the horrible ratings the Sox have, their complete lack of significant carriage agreements on cable, and the size of the Japanese community as a proportion of the metro population, he would be looking at significantly more money in a lot of other markets. 

8. Many of the other teams will be in the playoffs this year.  Others are going to be in the playoff race.  A 1st round playoff share would be a huge bump for a guy making league minimum.   A World Series championship would about double his salary. 

9. Besides a potential playoff share, a playoff appearance also means more national exposure,  further opening up more endorsement chances.  That's not happening in Chicago. 

10.  The Sox have a league wide reputation on a lack of resources for players.  Despite the noise about that changes, would someone be willing to bet their formative years and the chance at a powerball sized contract on it when you KNOW other teams already have done it.

11.  The Sox have a brand new manager,  GM, scouts, analytics crew and pretty much every thing else, except a couple of positions. 

12. Between the Sox stadium fight, and rumors of ownership changes happening,  and an owner pushing 90, the team that is selling Sasaki probably won't be the one who will be around to talk about his first big contract.  Even if the are, the Sox have never paid anyone more than $75 million.  Do you want to sign somewhere that almost certainly not offer you a mega contact when free agency approaches, or be hoping for a new ownership group who might?  Why wouldn't you just go to someone who you know will be willing to pay you when time?

I am probably forgetting some things, but this is a good start.

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1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

No one is giving up what he is giving up to sign with the worst team of all time. It’s ludicrous to even think there is a 50;000 to 1 shot. But I do agree they should take a shot, but it’s like buying  mega ball tickets when the pot is over a billion.

I don’t disagree, but at the end of the day we’re a top 3 metro market, who can offer him a zero pressure environment where he can develop in the majors, and can provide him the opportunity of being the face of the franchise.  We won’t get him because we have allowed ourselves to become a joke, but a competent owner and front office could at least squeak themselves into the mix here.

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1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Because he'd be just one of a bunch of Japanese players on a team. He'd be the only one on the Sox, therefore, solely representing the Sox' end of the "rivalry".  

Laughing? Okay. The Sox were mentioned as a team being seriously considered. It's not like they threw the Savannah Bananas at the end of the list to fill it out. If this was Angelstalk, all of you glum ones would be crawling over each other to shut down any happy talk with a declaration that the Angels would never win again until Artie Moreno died. 

It's honestly incredible how delusional you are. 

People crack the joke a lot on this board, but dead serious you may be Chris Getz.

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18 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t disagree, but at the end of the day we’re a top 3 metro market, who can offer him a zero pressure environment where he can develop in the majors, and can provide him the opportunity of being the face of the franchise.  We won’t get him because we have allowed ourselves to become a joke, but a competent owner and front office could at least squeak themselves into the mix here.

If he wanted that, why come to the US in the first place?  And even if he did want it, there are plenty of lower pressure markets than Chicago,  including many who can offer things like more money,  a better team, recent integration and infrastructure for Japanese players, etc.  Pretty much any selling point you can give for the White Sox, multiple other teams will easily beat.

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40 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yes it was mentioned by Chris Getz that the Sox have a seat at the table to pitch Sasaki, then someone afterwards took it a step further. 

But let's take a step back and look at this objectively.

1.  The Sox history in Japan is dormant for an entire generation.   We have no scouts there, and no real history of success in the far East compared to their peers.

2. The Sox international pool is in the smaller end of the pools.  While the Sox may well have a large amount of money left over because they are one of the worst spending team internationally, but there already talks of teams revoking signings to be able to offer Sasaki more money than the Sox ever could.

3. 121 losses.

4. The Sox are very probably to be into Sasakis arbitration years before they hit .500 again.  Even if Chris Getz somehow turns the Titanic around, we are probably now into his last year or two of control when this could be a legitimate playoff operation again.  That means choosing between risking losing him for nothing or trading him to a place he didn't choose to be in.  Sasaki is smart enough to know this timeline. 

5. Chicago is in the middle of the country and doesn't have a particularly big Japanese population, especially when compared to all of the West Coast.  Even when Iguchi was here, there really was no surge of fan base from the community.  

6. The West Coast cities are 3-5 hours closer to Japan.

7. Because Sasaki has to go through the six years of control,  his primary source of income will be endorsements.  Between the horrible ratings the Sox have, their complete lack of significant carriage agreements on cable, and the size of the Japanese community as a proportion of the metro population, he would be looking at significantly more money in a lot of other markets. 

8. Many of the other teams will be in the playoffs this year.  Others are going to be in the playoff race.  A 1st round playoff share would be a huge bump for a guy making league minimum.   A World Series championship would about double his salary. 

9. Besides a potential playoff share, a playoff appearance also means more national exposure,  further opening up more endorsement chances.  That's not happening in Chicago. 

10.  The Sox have a league wide reputation on a lack of resources for players.  Despite the noise about that changes, would someone be willing to bet their formative years and the chance at a powerball sized contract on it when you KNOW other teams already have done it.

11.  The Sox have a brand new manager,  GM, scouts, analytics crew and pretty much every thing else, except a couple of positions. 

12. Between the Sox stadium fight, and rumors of ownership changes happening,  and an owner pushing 90, the team that is selling Sasaki probably won't be the one who will be around to talk about his first big contract.  Even if the are, the Sox have never paid anyone more than $75 million.  Do you want to sign somewhere that almost certainly offer you a mega contact when free agency approaches, or be hoping for a new ownership group who might?  Why wouldn't you just go to someone who you know will be willing to pay you when time?

I am probably forgetting some things, but this is a good start.

Not only that, but the whole "ring the gong" thing with Takatsu was borderline racist/discriminatory.

Now obviously Fukudome faced even worse issues on the Northside, it would be shocking to see him not end up on one of the coasts, especially the Pacific Coast due to the proximity with Japan for flights and closer times for Japanese tv/media.

Seattle feels right, so does SD...if he wants to compete directly against the Dodgers, or maybe SF.

The Cubs would certainly be THE team to pick in Chicago.

The Cardinals are clearing away (or attempting to) salary, and they have one of the most iconic/recognizable brands in the sport, but StL is hardly a mecca for Asian families.   Hard to think of any Japanese pitchers succeeding there, mostly relievers.

The Red Sox obviously have/had a much longer history with Japanese pitchers, and that was the initial choice of Dice K, who was a huge get back at the time, although he had a relatively disappointing big league career.

 

In that sense, both Dallas and Houston would be better fits in terms of demographics in "flyover" territory.

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27 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

As for the topic, Seattle would be my odds-on favorite. Quicker flight home. Big Japanese population and history. Him not wanting the NY/LA spot light but still wanting endorsements might as well say Seattle imo.

Seattle seems like a great first guess for non-huge markets because of a ton of advantages. 

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18 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If he wanted that, why come to the US in the first place?  And even if he did want it, there are plenty of lower pressure markets than Chicago,  including many who can offer things like more money,  a better team, recent integration and infrastructure for Japanese players, etc.  Pretty much any selling point you can give for the White Sox, multiple other teams will easily beat.

No other team can offer the size of our metro market while having almost zero pressure to perform right away, outside of maybe the Angels.  But it doesn’t matter because we are joke of an org and the dude won’t be signing with us.

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40 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It's honestly incredible how delusional you are. 

People crack the joke a lot on this board, but dead serious you may be Chris Getz.

If Sasaki actually wanted to sign with this lowly and terrible team it would honestly make me question his desire to compete and win.

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14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Seattle seems like a great first guess for non-huge markets because of a ton of advantages. 

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/features/that-time-when-nintendo-bought-a-baseball-team/

 

To this day, Mariners fans are grateful that Yamauchi's 49% essentially saved the team from relocation (to St. Pete as well, just like the White Sox during the same decade). Although on paper it seemed this powerful Japanese businessman had no real interest in the team – never visiting them, never watching a single game, getting his son-in-law to appear at meetings on his behalf – the reality was that his acquisition of the team was a symbolic one, a sign of gratitude to the state that helped Nintendo establish itself in the west.

He may not have really cared much about the Mariners, but he certainly had a soft spot in his heart for the people who did.

 

The deal also occasionally brought benefits to Mariners-supporting gamers. Nintendo published four baseball games starring Ken Griffey Jr, the Mariners’ star hitter. The SNES got two of these (Ken Griffey Jr Presents Major League Baseball and Ken Griffey Jr’s Winning Run), whereas the other two appeared on the Nintendo 64 (Major League Baseball Featuring Ken Griffey Jr and Ken Griffey Jr’s Slugfest).

 

Current Sasaki betting odds, White Sox 80 to 1, or 29th, ahead of just the A's.  Surprised DET and Minnesota would possibly be considered ahead of the Boston Red Sox.

https://www.gambling911.com/mlb/roki-sasaki-odds-for-30-mlb-teams-111224

Los Angeles Dodgers
    

3/1

San Diego Padres
    

4/1

New York Mets
    

6/1

Seattle Mariners
    

7/1

San Francisco Giants
    

8/1

New York Yankees
    

9/1

Chicago Cubs
    

10/1

Philadelphia Phillies
    

11/1

Tampa Bay Rays
    

12/1

Atlanta Braves
    

14/1

Texas Rangers
    

14/1

Toronto Blue Jays

Edited by caulfield12
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1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yes it was mentioned by Chris Getz that the Sox have a seat at the table to pitch Sasaki, then someone afterwards took it a step further. 

But let's take a step back and look at this objectively.

1.  The Sox history in Japan is dormant for an entire generation.   We have no scouts there, and no real history of success in the far East compared to their peers.

2. The Sox international pool is in the smaller end of the pools.  While the Sox may well have a large amount of money left over because they are one of the worst spending team internationally, but there already talks of teams revoking signings to be able to offer Sasaki more money than the Sox ever could.

3. 121 losses.

4. The Sox are very probably to be into Sasakis arbitration years before they hit .500 again.  Even if Chris Getz somehow turns the Titanic around, we are probably now into his last year or two of control when this could be a legitimate playoff operation again.  That means choosing between risking losing him for nothing or trading him to a place he didn't choose to be in.  Sasaki is smart enough to know this timeline. 

5. Chicago is in the middle of the country and doesn't have a particularly big Japanese population, especially when compared to all of the West Coast.  Even when Iguchi was here, there really was no surge of fan base from the community.  

6. The West Coast cities are 3-5 hours closer to Japan.

7. Because Sasaki has to go through the six years of control,  his primary source of income will be endorsements.  Between the horrible ratings the Sox have, their complete lack of significant carriage agreements on cable, and the size of the Japanese community as a proportion of the metro population, he would be looking at significantly more money in a lot of other markets. 

8. Many of the other teams will be in the playoffs this year.  Others are going to be in the playoff race.  A 1st round playoff share would be a huge bump for a guy making league minimum.   A World Series championship would about double his salary. 

9. Besides a potential playoff share, a playoff appearance also means more national exposure,  further opening up more endorsement chances.  That's not happening in Chicago. 

10.  The Sox have a league wide reputation on a lack of resources for players.  Despite the noise about that changes, would someone be willing to bet their formative years and the chance at a powerball sized contract on it when you KNOW other teams already have done it.

11.  The Sox have a brand new manager,  GM, scouts, analytics crew and pretty much every thing else, except a couple of positions. 

12. Between the Sox stadium fight, and rumors of ownership changes happening,  and an owner pushing 90, the team that is selling Sasaki probably won't be the one who will be around to talk about his first big contract.  Even if the are, the Sox have never paid anyone more than $75 million.  Do you want to sign somewhere that almost certainly offer you a mega contact when free agency approaches, or be hoping for a new ownership group who might?  Why wouldn't you just go to someone who you know will be willing to pay you when time?

I am probably forgetting some things, but this is a good start.

I think you pretty much nailed it, haha.

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26 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No other team can offer the size of our metro market while having almost zero pressure to perform right away, outside of maybe the Angels.  But it doesn’t matter because we are joke of an org and the dude won’t be signing with us.

I would put Toronto into that bucket, plus they have a giant Asian/Japanese/migrant population,  friendly sports media, low pressure environment,  and a willingness to spend money.

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