Rule 5 Protection tomorrow

[Eric Colclasure]

Unless my information is wrong, teams teams are required to place certain Rule-5 eligible players on their 40-man rosters in order to prevent other teams from prying them away in December's Rule 5 Draft.  With the unofficial signing of outfielder Austin Slater to a major league deal, the White Sox will have 37 players on their 40-man roster. There's certainly enough chaff in that roster (Chuckie Robinson, Corey Julks, Jesse Scholtens and Justin Anderson to name a few) that could be removed, so by all means, the Sox could find a way to protect more than three players from Rule 5 selection. Below is who I believe are the twelve options (in order) the team could most consider for this roster protection.  

 

1, Colson Montgomery (22) -- SS (Charlotte). Montgomery is the one no-brainer. Yes, he struggled for most of 2024 (.214/.329/.381), but still managed to produce 42 extra-base hits and 69 walks, Surprisingly, he fared better against southpaws (.248/.327/.376) than righties (.201/.329/.384). He likely put too much pressure on himself to produce numbers, but he was still playing against pitchers five years older than he on average. In September he slashed a more respectable .264/.357/.458 with 4 homers. Just as importantly, he lit up the scoreboard for the Glendale Desert Dogs in 45 at-bats by slugging .313/.511/.656 with three homers, four stolen bases and 10 walks while fanning just six times. Things may be starting to click for the 6'3" youngster, and with a hot spring, he just may be able to crack the Opening Day roster. In the meantime, he ranks 3rd among Sox prospects according to MLB Pipeline and is a borderline Top-100 overall prospect.

2. Wilfred Veras (22) -- OF (Birmingham). Like Montgomery, Veras' numbers slumped when compared to an outstanding 2023. Also like Montgomery, his numbers improved late in the year as well. With Birmingham, he slashed .267/.319/.424 in a tough ballpark to hit with 44 extra-base hits (16 homers), 34 walks (as opposed to 140 strikeouts) and 25 stolen bases. Not considered by many scouts to be a speed demon, he's been highly productive on the bases with 49 stolen bases in 2023. His plate discipline vastly improved in the season's last two months as he produced 18 walks as opposed to 37 punchouts (as opposed to 16 walks and 103 strikeouts the previous four months). This improvement resulted in a combined .297/.376/.465 slash line. He currently ranks 25th among Sox prospects per MLB Pipeline, and should begin next year in Charlotte. He could be the long-term answer in right field if he continues his recent improvements.

3, Juan Carela (22) -- RHSP (Birmingham). Falling just below Veras' MLB Sox prospect ranking at 26th, Carela produced nearly identical results with Winston-Salem and Birmingham. For the year, he produced a respectable 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 23 starts (106.2 innings), as he surrendered just 87 hits and 45 walks while fanning 114. Like Veras, I expect Carela to begin next year with Charlotte. He's pitched splendidly for the Sox since they acquired him in 2023's trade deadline from the Yankees for reliever Keynan Middleton. Righties hit just .205 versus his offerings last year, as opposed to a .253 average by lefties. If he can improve his change-up against lefties, he could become a solid rotation piece in 2026 for the Sox.    

4. Trey McGough (26) LHRP (Charlotte). Acquired in last year's tradeline from Baltimore in the Eloy Jimenez deal, he produced an outstanding 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 81.2 innings by surrendering just 54 hits (.188 OBA) and 29 walks while striking out 88. What's more, his ERA has never finished above 3.86 in his five-year minor league career. His numbers versus lefties and righties were nearly identical, Certainly, the Sox were aware of his pending Rule 5 status for this year when making the Jimenez deal, so it seems likely that McGough will be the fourth option for Rule-5 protection.

5. Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa (24) -- RHRP (Charlotte). This is where things start becoming less clear regarding who'll be protected. At the time the White Sox acquired him from the Rangers in the May 8 trade for outfielder Robbie Grossman, the native Hawaiian had a 0.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 10 relief outings. He did post a respectable 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP for Birmingham in 25 outings. However, in Hoopii-Tuionetoa's nine appearances with Charlotte, he got lit up with a 13.50 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. He could have been fatigued toward the season, r the small ballpark in Charlotte could've caused problems. Hopefully, this is just an aberration as he's expected to be a member on the Sox Opening Day roster with a solid Spring Training.        

6. Garrett Schoenle (26) -- LHRP (Birmingham). Schoenle followed up his worst professional season in 2023 (6.22 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) with his best one in 2024 (1.67 ERA/0.94 WHIP). While last year was primarily spent in the rotation, this year was spent mostly in the bullpen. In 70 innings, he allowed just 43 hits (.171 OBA) and 23 walks while fanning 88.  Schoenle was Mr. Consistency, as no monthly ERA was above 2.25; also lefties hit .170 versus his offerings while righties hit .171 against him. Also, his numbers in the bullpen and his spot-starter roles were nearly identical. It would be easy to understand if the Sox selected Schoenle over Hoopii-Tuionetoa based upon those impressive results.

7. Adisyn Coffey (24) -- RHRP (Charlotte). Coffey was considered simply an under-slot 3rd Round selection from Wabash Valley Community College in the 2020 Draft, as his selection enabled the team to spend over-slot money on prep star Jared Kelley. However, Coffey has proven thus far to be the better of the two pitchers, as he combined with Birmingham and Charlotte for a 2.04 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 35 relief appearances, In that span totaling over 52 innings, he allowed just 37 hits and 22 walks while striking out 55. Lefties hit just .160 against his offerings, and like Schoenle, surrendered just one homer for all of 2024. He's certainly in the mix with Hoopii-Tuionetoa and Schoenle for Rule 5 protection.

8. Caleb Freeman (26) -- RHRP (Birmingham). Selected in 2019's 15th round from Texas Tech, Freeman had the reputation of wildness which he hasn't totally shaken. He did post a respectable 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for Birmingham in 2024, as he allowed 33 hits (.208 OBA) and 26 walks while striking out 56. He also surrendered 5 homers in his 43 2/3 innings, which is similar to his career average. Mostly, his inconsistency is what brings him below the relievers already mentioned. His monthly ERA numbers were 3.00, 6.48, 0.00, 9.82, 1.04 and 4.91. Of course, ERA stats don't tell the whole picture, but in Freeman's case, it could explain why he hasn't received the promotion to Charlotte yet.

9. Jerold Rosado (22) -- RHRP (Winston-Salem). Rosada was acquired in last year's trade deadline from the Royals for infielder Paul DeJong, and he continued to pitch quite well. He combined with the Royal and Sox systems for an outstanding 2.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 55 1/3 innings, as he allowed just 42 hits (.214 OBA), 15 walks and 68 strikeouts.  Lefties hit .224 against him, while righties fared marginally worse at .207. I'd have Rosado higher on this list, but since he's only had 10 appearances beyond Low-A ball, the odds of him being selected in the Rule 5 Draft won't be that high.

10. Adam Hackenberg (25) -- C (Charlotte). Hackenberg's offensive numbers (.210/.315/.253) in 2024 were a significant drop-off from his 2023 numbers with Birmingham and Charlotte, but he's here due to the scarcity of the catcher position which is usually in demand (along with pitching) in Rule 5 drafts. He's considered an asset behind the plate, so despite his numbers, it won't be a shock to see him selected.   

11. Andrew Dalquist (24) -- RHRP (Birmingham). The former 3rd-round selection has had a disappointing minor league career to date, although he resurrected it significantly after a conversion from the rotation to begin this year's campaign. He posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 47 innings for Birmingham, as he surrendered just 36 hits (.217 OBA) while fanning a solid 52. However, he got himself in trouble walking 27. In the past, he's given up lots of long balls; however, he surrendered just two in the friendly environs of Birmingham. His stock will escalate further if he can throw strikes, while still limiting the long ball, in the much more perilous Charlotte atmosphere.

12. DJ Gladney (23) -- OF (Birmingham). I nearly went with fellow Baron outfielder Terrell Tatum here, but since Gladney participated in this year's AFL, he deserves a shoutout here. He enjoyed his best minor league campaign with Winston-Salem and Birmingham in 2024 by slashing .246/.303/.450 -with 20 doubles and 16 homers spanning 353 at-bats. He also stole eight bases without getting caught. His strikeout rate has vastly improved since his 2023 effort when he struck out 173 times in 464 at-bats. I'll be fun to see how this local product builds upon his success in Charlotte next year, but in the meantime, the odds of Gladney's being selected in the Rule 5 draft is fairly small despite his overall improvements.

[Timmy U]

Thanks for the rundown. I would protect Montgomery, Carmela, and maybe one reliever. I feel like it would be hard for anyone to keep Vera’s rostered all year. 

[nrockway]

I have a good feeling about Gladney and still Hackenberg. I think another team might actually select Gladney above some of those pitchers. 
 

Frankly there are like 5 or 6 guys I’d want to protect. Would’ve been nice to see a trade to clear up some 40man space. 

[WhiteSox2023]

9 minutes ago, nrockway said:

I have a good feeling about Gladney and still Hackenberg. I think another team might actually select Gladney above some of those pitchers. 
 

Frankly there are like 5 or 6 guys I’d want to protect. Would’ve been nice to see a trade to clear up some 40man space. 

I don’t think Gladney even needs to be protected because I don’t think he gets taken with his strikeout rate.  He wouldn’t last on a roster long enough next season to stay with that team.

[nrockway]

24 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I don’t think Gladney even needs to be protected because I don’t think he gets taken with his strikeout rate.  He wouldn’t last on a roster long enough next season to stay with that team.

Oh duh I forgot if a team selects the player, he has to be on the major league roster the whole season. You’re right, Gladney wouldn’t last. Hack might (his glove is ok, arm great, bat bad) and so might some of those pitchers. 
 

Colson is obviously a no brainer. Mcgough, hoopii, schoenle (try spelling these names on mobile from memory) could probably stick on a mlb team. I’d keep any one of those guys over, say, Gavin sheets. 

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Oh duh I forgot if a team selects the player, he has to be on the major league roster the whole season. You’re right, Gladney wouldn’t last. Hack might (his glove is ok, arm great, bat bad) and so might some of those pitchers. 
 

Colson is obviously a no brainer. Mcgough, hoopii, schoenle (try spelling these names on mobile from memory) could probably stick on a mlb team. I’d keep any one of those guys over, say, Gavin sheets. 

Or Austin Slater…

[nrockway]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Or Austin Slater…

Is that not a minor league deal?

edit: nope. hmm. 

Edited November 19 by nrockway

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, nrockway said:

Is that not a minor league deal?

MLB deal.

[caulfield12]

10 hours ago, Timmy U said:

Thanks for the rundown. I would protect Montgomery, Carmela, and maybe one reliever. I feel like it would be hard for anyone to keep Vera’s rostered all year. 

Carmela is the successor to the Campfire Milkshake?

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

We should have no issue protecting however many we think have potential of being selected.  I'd prioritize: Montgomery, Carela, AHT and Mcgough. Specifically since I think both relievers could be used this year, and early on.

[southsider2k5]

Realistically if we left all of these guys unprotected, how many would actually be picked.  Obviously someone would take a chance on fixing whatever the Sox have screwed up in Colson, but maybe the relievers?  Other than that, no one is thinking about keeping these dudes on a roster for an entire season.

[Y2Jimmy0]

28 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Realistically if we left all of these guys unprotected, how many would actually be picked.  Obviously someone would take a chance on fixing whatever the Sox have screwed up in Colson, but maybe the relievers?  Other than that, no one is thinking about keeping these dudes on a roster for an entire season.

They need to protect Montgomery and Carela for sure. 

[Bob Sacamano]

31 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Realistically if we left all of these guys unprotected, how many would actually be picked.  Obviously someone would take a chance on fixing whatever the Sox have screwed up in Colson, but maybe the relievers?  Other than that, no one is thinking about keeping these dudes on a roster for an entire season.

Yeah, the older relievers for sure who should get a look with the Sox.

[southsider2k5]

18 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

They need to protect Montgomery and Carela for sure. 

I could see a case for Carela and the three name guys.

[Bob Sacamano]

Colson and Carela selected.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/white-sox-to-select-colson-montgomery-juan-carela.html

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Colson and Carela selected.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/white-sox-to-select-colson-montgomery-juan-carela.html

So either they dont' think much of the relievers, or they don't think anyone else will think enough to put them on a roster.

[Buehrle>Wood]

I dont get protecting some of the releivers since there's enough room for them in the bullpen anyways for them to be there. McGough in particular. I guess we shall see though. 

[southsider2k5]

Pre Non-Tenders, the roster is at 38

 

[WhiteSox2023]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Pre Non-Tenders, the roster is at 38

 

Will be at 39 once Slater officially signs.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Will be at 39 once Slater officially signs.

They will probably try to sneak a few guys through waivers closer to Rule 5 Draft and non-tender guys. I think the 40-man roster flexibility narrative is a non-issue. Team just lost 120 games. Easily still fat that can be cut.

[GreenSox]

None of the unprotected relievers seems overly compelling.  But they also have some real riffraff on the 40 man, including relief pitching,  that needs culling:  Anderson, Kuhl, e.g.

Edited Tuesday at 09:57 PM by GreenSox

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

None of the unprotected relievers seems overly compelling.  But they also have some real riffraff on the 40 man, including relief pitching,  that needs culling:  Anderson, Kuhl, e.g.

Yeah, I guess if you wanted to protect those relievers, you would just be replacing the older relievers (Anderson, Kuhl, De Los Santos, Ron M (don't know how to spell it), Varland, etc). Julks is another guy who feels like DFA fodder with Slater getting an MLB deal and serving as the RHH bench OF. 

[Quin]

4 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Yeah, I guess if you wanted to protect those relievers, you would just be replacing the older relievers (Anderson, Kuhl, De Los Santos, Ron M (don't know how to spell it), Varland, etc). Julks is another guy who feels like DFA fodder with Slater getting an MLB deal and serving as the RHH bench OF. 

Ron McSubmarineSandwich

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Quin said:

Ron McSubmarineSandwich

Yeah, a guy I just learned/remembered was on the team yesterday 

[TaylorStSox]

6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Realistically if we left all of these guys unprotected, how many would actually be picked.  Obviously someone would take a chance on fixing whatever the Sox have screwed up in Colson, but maybe the relievers?  Other than that, no one is thinking about keeping these dudes on a roster for an entire season.

Montgomery was a 22nd overall pick out of HS who climbed to a top 20 prospect on pretty much every ranking, struggled in AAA while being among the youngest players in the league, and the Sox screwed him up? Explain.