Rule 5 Protection tomorrow

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

18 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Montgomery was a 22nd overall pick out of HS who climbed to a top 20 prospect on pretty much every ranking, struggled in AAA while being among the youngest players in the league, and the Sox screwed him up? Explain.

People get antsy when top prospects development declines no matter how you choose to rationalize it. It might be top notch rationalization too but despite the warnings that development isn't linear, panic sets in when when a downward line appears.

Edited November 19 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Tnetennba]

2 hours ago, Quin said:

Ron McSubmarineSandwich

Ron Marinara Nachos

[WhiteSox2023]

2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

Montgomery was a 22nd overall pick out of HS who climbed to a top 20 prospect on pretty much every ranking, struggled in AAA while being among the youngest players in the league, and the Sox screwed him up? Explain.

If he can get back to his 2022 - 2023 numbers this year, that would be great.

Any idea what happened with his strikeouts last year?  They were way higher than his norm.  I just read that he got much more aggressive in the strike zone.

[Timmy U]

I feel like between, Anderson, Scholtens, Varland, Wilson, Chuckie Robinson, Amaya, Sheets, Shewmake, and Corey Julks the Sox have plenty of flexibility before you even consider the possible non-tenders of De Los Santos, Sheets, and Vaughn. They can add anyone to this roster that they think is an upgrade all winter long.

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

Montgomery was a 22nd overall pick out of HS who climbed to a top 20 prospect on pretty much every ranking, struggled in AAA while being among the youngest players in the league, and the Sox screwed him up? Explain.

You didn't see him regress last year?

[Bob Sacamano]

11 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I feel like between, Anderson, Scholtens, Varland, Wilson, Chuckie Robinson, Amaya, Sheets, Shewmake, and Corey Julks the Sox have plenty of flexibility before you even consider the possible non-tenders of De Los Santos, Sheets, and Vaughn. They can add anyone to this roster that they think is an upgrade all winter long.

Julks is immediately expendable with the Slater add.

Edited November 20 by Bob Sacamano

[WhiteSox2023]

41 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I feel like between, Anderson, Scholtens, Varland, Wilson, Chuckie Robinson, Amaya, Sheets, Shewmake, and Corey Julks the Sox have plenty of flexibility before you even consider the possible non-tenders of De Los Santos, Sheets, and Vaughn. They can add anyone to this roster that they think is an upgrade all winter long.

Definitely.  It’s a bunch of awful players and then a trio of very bad players taking up roster spots.

[TaylorStSox]

32 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You didn't see him regress last year?

I see him ahead of where he should be given his draft position and history - Indiana HS player -  while being in the Sox organization the entire time. I'm curious how the Sox ruined him while having him pretty far ahead of where the vast, vast majority of 22nd picks ever end up being.

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I see him ahead of where he should be given his draft position and history - Indiana HS player -  while being in the Sox organization the entire time. I'm curious how the Sox ruined him while having him pretty far ahead of where the vast, vast majority of 22nd picks ever end up being.

Going back 10 years from Montgomery, 8 of the #22 picks made it to the big leagues. 4 look to have stuck for a while. The best appears to be Marcus Stroman. 

[TaylorStSox]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Going back 10 years from Montgomery, 8 of the #22 picks made it to the big leagues. 4 look to have stuck for a while. The best appears to be Marcus Stroman. 

He's a Midwest HS pick who had 111 MiLB PA's before the age of 20. He advanced 3 levels in a single season and hit some adversity in AAA. Montgomery will undoubtedly play in the majors and will most likely stick for a while based on being a LH bat with excellent patience, solid defense and good power. That's his floor. Nobody ruined Colson Montgomery.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

He's a Midwest HS pick who had 111 MiLB PA's before the age of 20. He advanced 3 levels in a single season and hit some adversity in AAA. Montgomery will undoubtedly play in the majors and will most likely stick for a while based on being a LH bat with excellent patience, solid defense and good power. That's his floor. Nobody ruined Colson Montgomery.

You said he made it farther than the vast majority of 22 picks. The strong majority of 22 picks make the big leagues. Beyond that, you are giving him credit for things he hasn’t done and asserting that others don’t do that when they do.

I don’t know what his issue was last year, but last year was not a performance of a guy who would stick in the big leagues. If he’s having health problems - that derailed a couple of the guys who didn’t stick. The 22 pick from 2020 had TJS in 2023 right after making the big leagues. There’s lots of things that could still go wrong with this player, he is coming off a really down year.

[TaylorStSox]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You said he made it farther than the vast majority of 22 picks. The strong majority of 22 picks make the big leagues. Beyond that, you are giving him credit for things he hasn’t done and asserting that others don’t do that when they do.

I don’t know what his issue was last year, but last year was not a performance of a guy who would stick in the big leagues. If he’s having health problems - that derailed a couple of the guys who didn’t stick. The 22 pick from 2020 had TJS in 2023 right after making the big leagues. There’s lots of things that could still go wrong with this player, he is coming off a really down year.

How many of the 22nd picks were top 20 prospects? At this point in his career, he's beyond where most 22nd picks were. Don't bother looking it up, you win. You guys can continue your your circle jerk of hating everything White Sox, including the prospects, players and fans. 

[WhiteSox2023]

I asked earlier but was it just a fluky down season or was there something wrong with Montgomery physically last year?  His high number of strikeouts (164) really sticks out as out of the norm for him before last year.

Edited November 20 by WhiteSox2023

[Balta1701]

57 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

How many of the 22nd picks were top 20 prospects? At this point in his career, he's beyond where most 22nd picks were. Don't bother looking it up, you win. You guys can continue your your circle jerk of hating everything White Sox, including the prospects, players and fans. 

Depending on which list you look at, roughly half wind up being top 50 prospects at some point.

Notably, the best players in that slot, Marcus Stroman and Kolten Wong, were never top 50 prospects, because a guy drafted out of Duke, for example, might not spend as much time in the minors. The guy drafted before him in that slot reached number 39 but then went down for TJS.

So it’s rare for them to make top 20 but common for them to be top 50. But you are definitely a bit out there pushing a theme that says that Montgomery has accomplished more in his career than Marcus Stroman.

And in terms of your Getz is great circle jerk, note that I didn’t have a thing to say until you needed to assert that most #22 picks get nowhere near AAA.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I asked earlier but was it just a fluky down season or was there something wrong with Montgomery physically last year?  His high number of strikeouts (164) really sticks out as out of the norm for him before last year.

They never said anything specific or official, but there’s been a lot of “implying” here that he may have had a back issue. 

A sore back most of the year that felt better in September and in Winter Ball would be quite consistent with his performance on the year.

What does that mean for the future if he did? If it’s a long term or degenerative thing, or even just a regular problem, that could affect his ability to ever be a big leaguer. If it’s a one time thing and he has actually recovered, maybe the strong AFL performance is a solid sign.

[WestEddy]

8 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

You said he made it farther than the vast majority of 22 picks. The strong majority of 22 picks make the big leagues. Beyond that, you are giving him credit for things he hasn’t done and asserting that others don’t do that when they do.

I don’t know what his issue was last year, but last year was not a performance of a guy who would stick in the big leagues. If he’s having health problems - that derailed a couple of the guys who didn’t stick. The 22 pick from 2020 had TJS in 2023 right after making the big leagues. There’s lots of things that could still go wrong with this player, he is coming off a really down year.

3 of the last 20 #22 picks have had big success in the bigs (15.0+ bWAR). None of those three were HS picks. It's funny how a minor leaguer making the majors is definitely not a sign of success when talking about a minor league director, but when setting a floor for a White Sox pick, it's practically the Hall of Fame.

[Bob Sacamano]

44 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

3 of the last 20 #22 picks have had big success in the bigs (15.0+ bWAR). None of those three were HS picks. It's funny how a minor leaguer making the majors is definitely not a sign of success when talking about a minor league director, but when setting a floor for a White Sox pick, it's practically the Hall of Fame.

To be fair, when you don’t spend on top talent and your MLB roster has holes, you tend to push high ceiling guys quickly.

But on the flipside, I guess that could cause you to rely on the promotion of guys who are just average or "meh" in the minors as well.

Edited November 20 by Bob Sacamano

[Balta1701]

46 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

3 of the last 20 #22 picks have had big success in the bigs (15.0+ bWAR). None of those three were HS picks. It's funny how a minor leaguer making the majors is definitely not a sign of success when talking about a minor league director, but when setting a floor for a White Sox pick, it's practically the Hall of Fame.

When did Colson Montgomery put up 15 WAR?

[WestEddy]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

When did Colson Montgomery put up 15 WAR?

I think we can agree that, at this point, Colson Montgomery hasn't played any Major League Baseball, and is currently a "prospect". Right? If your contention is that all prospects suck until they break out, then sure, Colson Montgomery sucks, as does the entire top 100 list of prospects. 

It's a bit disingenuous to argue that the White Sox completely screwed up Colson Montgomery, only because enough time has not yet passed for him to mature into a Major League Baseball player. 

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I think we can agree that, at this point, Colson Montgomery hasn't played any Major League Baseball, and is currently a "prospect". Right? If your contention is that all prospects suck until they break out, then sure, Colson Montgomery sucks, as does the entire top 100 list of prospects. 

It's a bit disingenuous to argue that the White Sox completely screwed up Colson Montgomery, only because enough time has not yet passed for him to mature into a Major League Baseball player. 

I never said the White Sox screwed up Colson Montgomery. 

I said that declaring Colson Montgomery a giant success at this point because "the vast majority of #22 picks don't make it this far" is simply false because out of the last 10, 80% have made the big leagues, which is more than Montgomery has done so far. It isn't fair to call him a gigantic success in the big leagues and better than those guys until he's actually even in the big leagues, let alone a success.

Similarly, saying "Colson Montgomery is a great success as only 3 guys drafted there put up 15 WAR" definitely brings up the question of when Colson Montgomery put up 15 WAR. He didn't!

You can't call him an enormous Getz big league breakout successful development all star when he's currently a AAA player having some issues. 

It's not unusual at all for a #22 pick to be a top 50 prospect, it's totally normal. He has gotten slightly better ranked than most guys drafted at that spot, but that's a big stretch because a college player like Stroman who has early success in the minors will be in the big leagues before he's ranked highly. And there's a lot of things that can derail a guy who is a highly thought of prospect when they get to AAA - the guy before him, the 2020 #22 pick, was the #39 prospect in the league, called up in 2023, and immediately went down for TJS.

He's on an ok trajectory, there's definitely some concerns based on his 2024 season, and there's a legitimate worry that there could be a lingering injury that affects his career based on this year. If he can overcome that, then he has a big league future. But he's not some incredible developmental legend that makes Chris Getz's career a success and overwhelms everything else he's ever done, at least not yet. Statements that "The vast majority of #22 picks don't get this far" are simply false.

Before we take the victory lap and congratulate Getz on finally developing a 15 WAR player out of a mid-20s draft pick, let's at least let him get into the big leagues. Most #22 picks get there eventually.

[Bob Sacamano]

Is being "successful" just making the Majors? That seems like a low bar.

Edited November 20 by Bob Sacamano

[WhiteSox2023]

I think Montgomery can turn it around but I sure can understand people having doubts when it comes to Sox first round position player draft picks.  They have been pretty putrid on the whole over the past 25 years.  The best players are Anderson and a guy they traded away in Burger.  Vaughn is mediocre and many people want to see him non-tendered.  What a sad list…

2000 - Joe Borchard

2003 - Brian Anderson

2004 - Josh Fields

2008 - Gordon Beckham

2009 - Jared Mitchell

2010 - Josh Phegley (supp.)

2011 - Keenyn Walker (supp.)

2012 - Courtney Hawkins

2013 - Tim Anderson

2016 - Zack Collins

2017 - Jake Burger

2018 - Nick Madrigal

2019 - Andrew Vaughn

2021 - Colson Montgomery

2023 - Jacob Gonzalez

Edited November 20 by WhiteSox2023

[WestEddy]

40 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I never said the White Sox screwed up Colson Montgomery. 

I said that declaring Colson Montgomery a giant success at this point because "the vast majority of #22 picks don't make it this far" is simply false because out of the last 10, 80% have made the big leagues, which is more than Montgomery has done so far. It isn't fair to call him a gigantic success in the big leagues and better than those guys until he's actually even in the big leagues, let alone a success.

Similarly, saying "Colson Montgomery is a great success as only 3 guys drafted there put up 15 WAR" definitely brings up the question of when Colson Montgomery put up 15 WAR. He didn't!

You can't call him an enormous Getz big league breakout successful development all star when he's currently a AAA player having some issues. 

It's not unusual at all for a #22 pick to be a top 50 prospect, it's totally normal. He has gotten slightly better ranked than most guys drafted at that spot, but that's a big stretch because a college player like Stroman who has early success in the minors will be in the big leagues before he's ranked highly. And there's a lot of things that can derail a guy who is a highly thought of prospect when they get to AAA - the guy before him, the 2020 #22 pick, was the #39 prospect in the league, called up in 2023, and immediately went down for TJS.

He's on an ok trajectory, there's definitely some concerns based on his 2024 season, and there's a legitimate worry that there could be a lingering injury that affects his career based on this year. If he can overcome that, then he has a big league future. But he's not some incredible developmental legend that makes Chris Getz's career a success and overwhelms everything else he's ever done, at least not yet. Statements that "The vast majority of #22 picks don't get this far" are simply false.

Before we take the victory lap and congratulate Getz on finally developing a 15 WAR player out of a mid-20s draft pick, let's at least let him get into the big leagues. Most #22 picks get there eventually.

A bunch of posters, here, seem to be bending over backwards to make a negative out of a HS pick at #22 being on a slightly better than normal trajectory only because admitting to it somehow validates Chris Getz in their mind. Maybe you should be addressing the latter part of that sentence instead of the former. 

Monty being a HS #22 pick in the top 20 prospects is a big positive. Red flags exist for every prospect, and we can certainly discuss them. 

[Balta1701]

13 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

A bunch of posters, here, seem to be bending over backwards to make a negative out of a HS pick at #22 being on a slightly better than normal trajectory only because admitting to it somehow validates Chris Getz in their mind. Maybe you should be addressing the latter part of that sentence instead of the former. 

Monty being a HS #22 pick in the top 20 prospects is a big positive. Red flags exist for every prospect, and we can certainly discuss them. 

I see one poster who said the White Sox screwed up Montgomery. He got called out correctly for that being an exaggeration, and I have nothing else to add.

It's possible they did screw him up, moving him to AAA last year was aggressive and I wouldn't have done it. But, I don't know that screwed him up, at least not yet. It's possible they didn't have him on a proper training program and that led to back issues last year. It's possible he was just hurt last year, and that proper training will bring him back to where he was prior to last year. It's possible that he has a degenerative back condition and we never hear from him again.

A #22 pick in the top 20 prospects is ok, it's a decent positive, but with a tiny bit of context it isn't amazing or earth shattering. There's a long way to go, and health is always a factor. As soon as he said the White Sox screwed him up, an exaggeration in one direction, you Getzlyfans chimed in with how vastly far ahead of #22 picks he is, which is false since most of them get to the big leagues, and how few #22 picks put up 15 WAR, which is giving him credit for 15 WAR more than he has put up. 

One poster overshot the worries from last year by saying they screwed him up, and you guys bent over Getzwards to say how no #22 pick has ever done stuff like this. Maybe you should take your own advice there.

[WestEddy]

43 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I think Montgomery can turn it around but I sure can understand people having doubts when it comes to Sox first round position player draft picks.  They have been pretty putrid on the whole over the past 25 years.  The best players are Anderson and a guy they traded away in Burger.  Vaughn is mediocre and many people want to see him non-tendered.  What a sad list…

2000 - Joe Borchard

2003 - Brian Anderson

2004 - Josh Fields

2008 - Gordon Beckham

2009 - Jared Mitchell

2010 - Josh Phegley (supp.)

2011 - Keenyn Walker (supp.)

2012 - Courtney Hawkins

2013 - Tim Anderson

2016 - Zack Collins

2017 - Jake Burger

2018 - Nick Madrigal

2019 - Andrew Vaughn

2021 - Colson Montgomery

2023 - Jacob Gonzalez

From 2000 to 2013, the Sox had one pick in the top 10. No, the White Sox have not been good. Probably bottom 10. But they aren't unique in their misses from the bottom half of the first round.