Non-Tender Day

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Tonight is the deadline to offer arb eligible players a contract. Sheets, De Los Santos and Anderson are easy non-tenders.  Wilson can go either way.  He was horrible last year but was decent the previous two years.  I would be mildly surprised if they don't work out a deal with Vaughn.  

[Chicago White Sox]

Steven Wilson has options and three years of control.  You bring him back and hope he rebounds.

Disappointing to hear Vaughn is likely back, but I guess that what you get when your GM lacks the creativity to find a positive WAR 1B.

[southsider2k5]

Vaughn should be the easiest of the non- tenders, but you know we love wasting extra money on mediocrity. 

[DFAthewave69420]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Vaughn should be the easiest of the non- tenders, but you know we love wasting extra money on mediocrity. 

With the new voices in the clubhouse, it's worth another shot to see if maybe he can put that Cal swing together.

What difference does a 1 x $4 - $6M contract make when the payroll is going to be miniscule...

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, DFAthewave69420 said:

With the new voices in the clubhouse, it's worth another shot to see if maybe he can put that Cal swing together.

What difference does a 1 x $4 - $6M contract make when the payroll is going to be miniscule...

We say this every year and he’s only getting worse.  And if it was just tapping into his power better then I’d say roll the dice, but the kid has a sub 6% walk rate over the past three seasons.  He simply isn’t the same guy he was at Cal, probably because he barely had any development time in the minors.

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, DFAthewave69420 said:

With the new voices in the clubhouse, it's worth another shot to see if maybe he can put that Cal swing together.

What difference does a 1 x $4 - $6M contract make when the payroll is going to be miniscule...

If you want him, non-tender him and sign him back at like half of that price.  Quit being stupid with money on mediocre to bad players is a great place to start rebuilding this franchise.

[southsider2k5]

This is the Sox list.  For my two cents Nicky, Vaughn, Sheets, De Los Santos, Anderson and Lambert all go.

[Timmy U]

29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is the Sox list.  For my two cents Nicky, Vaughn, Sheets, De Los Santos, Anderson and Lambert all go.

Nicky, Foster, and Lambert are already gone, so you're half right no matter what. I imagine they tender all the remaining relievers except De Los Santos and they tender Vaughn. Remember arb eligible players can be released in the Spring for a minuscule amount. Arb salaries are not guaranteed until the season starts.

[TheFutureIsNear]

36 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

If you want him, non-tender him and sign him back at like half of that price.  Quit being stupid with money on mediocre to bad players is a great place to start rebuilding this franchise.

1- another team would scoop up Vaughn for sure

 

2- what on earth do you think saving $3-4M on Vaughn is going to do for us?? 

Letting Vaughn just walk would actually be one of the dumber things this franchise could do

[bmags]

55 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We say this every year and he’s only getting worse.  And if it was just tapping into his power better then I’d say roll the dice, but the kid has a sub 6% walk rate over the past three seasons.  He simply isn’t the same guy he was at Cal, probably because he barely had any development time in the minors.

bleh I hate blaming that. This was a body type that had no room to physically improve. His approach that was vaunted at Cal is probably a lot easier to exploit when pitchers can make you more uncomfortable in the strike zone, esp when he doesn't punish anything enough to be scared. There was probably a 99th percentile version of Vaughn that works out and would have been better prepped in another org. But for as highly ranked as he was, this feels like a player who was destined to end up on the white sox or rockies.

[southsider2k5]

21 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

1- another team would scoop up Vaughn for sure

 

2- what on earth do you think saving $3-4M on Vaughn is going to do for us?? 

Letting Vaughn just walk would actually be one of the dumber things this franchise could do

After watching the last few seasons, this is almost laughable on how far down the list of dumb things this franchise has done.

[TheFutureIsNear]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

After watching the last few seasons, this is almost laughable on how far down the list of dumb things this franchise has done.

At some point don’t you need to read the room? EVERY SINGLE Sox hitter has been an utter failure the past few seasons. Maybe, just maybe, it’s an organizational failure and not on the individual players?

Again, I’m not saying that I expect Vaughn to have a miracle turnaround just because there’s a new coaching staff…but it is more than possible. Giving up on a former top 10 pick to  shave $3M off of our $90M (or whatever it ends up at) payroll is indeed dumb. It’s over emotional fan thinking.

[Jake]

Given the alternatives are likely worse and it's not my money, I guess I hope they bring him back. I buy the argument that non-tendering is a shrewd move, but in the current situation it feels more cheap than shrewd to me.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

At some point don’t you need to read the room? EVERY SINGLE Sox hitter has been an utter failure the past few seasons. Maybe, just maybe, it’s an organizational failure and not on the individual players?

Again, I’m not saying that I expect Vaughn to have a miracle turnaround just because there’s a new coaching staff…but it is more than possible. Giving up on a former top 10 pick to  shave $3M off of our $90M (or whatever it ends up at) payroll is indeed dumb. It’s over emotional fan thinking.

When you are as payroll blocked as the Baghdad Bobs of the Sox are telling us the White Sox are, $3 million is actually meaningful in who we can and can't bring in.  Emotional is having an irrational attachment to a guy who has done nothing of substance in four seasons, and is quite literally one of the worst 1Bs in baseball when both O and D are factored in.

[WestEddy]

29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

When you are as payroll blocked as the Baghdad Bobs of the Sox are telling us the White Sox are, $3 million is actually meaningful in who we can and can't bring in.  Emotional is having an irrational attachment to a guy who has done nothing of substance in four seasons, and is quite literally one of the worst 1Bs in baseball when both O and D are factored in.

You seem to post a picture of Baghdad Bob when you don't agree with me, so I can only assume you're talking about me, and a few others who aren't negative enough for your taste. 

I don't believe I've ever called this team payroll blocked. If they can get Vaughn to sign for $4-5 million, he's still 26, and could still realize some potential. Who are we getting on the market that is notably better or cheaper? You can step down in production with Rowdy Tellez and pay him $3+ million. Or Josh Bell. They're both as bad without the possible "ceiling". 

I don't disagree that the right move would be to non-tender Vaughn and Sheets, and let Colas and Elko do an equal time platoon at 1B. With Vaughn, you seem to have a .700 OPS floor. With my platoon idea, they could end up failing and slapping Austin Slater at first just to get any offense. 

[Bob Sacamano]

12 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

You seem to post a picture of Baghdad Bob when you don't agree with me, so I can only assume you're talking about me, and a few others who aren't negative enough for your taste. 

I don't believe I've ever called this team payroll blocked. If they can get Vaughn to sign for $4-5 million, he's still 26, and could still realize some potential. Who are we getting on the market that is notably better or cheaper? You can step down in production with Rowdy Tellez and pay him $3+ million. Or Josh Bell. They're both as bad without the possible "ceiling". 

I don't disagree that the right move would be to non-tender Vaughn and Sheets, and let Colas and Elko do an equal time platoon at 1B. With Vaughn, you seem to have a .700 OPS floor. With my platoon idea, they could end up failing and slapping Austin Slater at first just to get any offense. 

I'm at the point where I am fine with this. Or just playing Vargas at 1B.

At the very least, it would help secure our way to a top pick (or at least the best lottery odds).

Edited Friday at 04:54 PM by Bob Sacamano

[fathom]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

bleh I hate blaming that. This was a body type that had no room to physically improve. His approach that was vaunted at Cal is probably a lot easier to exploit when pitchers can make you more uncomfortable in the strike zone, esp when he doesn't punish anything enough to be scared. There was probably a 99th percentile version of Vaughn that works out and would have been better prepped in another org. But for as highly ranked as he was, this feels like a player who was destined to end up on the white sox or rockies.

The two things that always caused me doubt about him was how a lot of his homers in college barely cleared the RF fence, as well as hearing on a podcast before the draft that he always seemed to struggle against Friday night pitching.

[WestEddy]

There should be several minor trades today with the 8 pm ET deadline for teams to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 22, 2024

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

At some point don’t you need to read the room? EVERY SINGLE Sox hitter has been an utter failure the past few seasons. Maybe, just maybe, it’s an organizational failure and not on the individual players?

Again, I’m not saying that I expect Vaughn to have a miracle turnaround just because there’s a new coaching staff…but it is more than possible. Giving up on a former top 10 pick to  shave $3M off of our $90M (or whatever it ends up at) payroll is indeed dumb. It’s over emotional fan thinking.

Let's play it out. What happens if Andrew Vaughn turns around his career and has a solid season.

He's defensively limited, his base running is always going to be bad, even if he's putting up much stronger offensive numbers, Pete Alonso last year was a 2 fWAR first baseman bad on both of those categories. If Vaughn puts up a 1.3 fWAR first half, does he bring you a big strong return in a trade? That takes someone willing to pay for a slight 1b upgrade, which...eh? Next offseason, you have Naylor and Guerrero hitting free agency from that position in addition to anyone who signs a 1 year deal this year, so is there going to be a huge trade market for a guy who put up 0 WAR through 4 seasons of his career then had a peak 2 WAR season, who is then going to get paid $9 million or so on a 1 year deal and probably won't bring back a draft pick since you won't give him a QO? 

If he turns into a 2 WAR 1b for each of the next 2 years, the White Sox keep him and spend $15 million or so on him. Is that a good use of $15 million? Pushes them into competition for a playoff spot in 2025? 2026? If not, then he's a free agent, congratulations you've developed him into a tolerable 1b now he's going to go get $15 million a year on the FA market that the White sox probably won't pay.

How is this a use of resources likely to make the White Sox better long term? Where is the value to them that they get for this money? Even potential value? 

[Timmy U]

27 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Let's play it out. What happens if Andrew Vaughn turns around his career and has a solid season.

He's defensively limited, his base running is always going to be bad, even if he's putting up much stronger offensive numbers, Pete Alonso last year was a 2 fWAR first baseman bad on both of those categories. If Vaughn puts up a 1.3 fWAR first half, does he bring you a big strong return in a trade? That takes someone willing to pay for a slight 1b upgrade, which...eh? Next offseason, you have Naylor and Guerrero hitting free agency from that position in addition to anyone who signs a 1 year deal this year, so is there going to be a huge trade market for a guy who put up 0 WAR through 4 seasons of his career then had a peak 2 WAR season, who is then going to get paid $9 million or so on a 1 year deal and probably won't bring back a draft pick since you won't give him a QO? 

If he turns into a 2 WAR 1b for each of the next 2 years, the White Sox keep him and spend $15 million or so on him. Is that a good use of $15 million? Pushes them into competition for a playoff spot in 2025? 2026? If not, then he's a free agent, congratulations you've developed him into a tolerable 1b now he's going to go get $15 million a year on the FA market that the White sox probably won't pay.

How is this a use of resources likely to make the White Sox better long term? Where is the value to them that they get for this money? Even potential value? 

Depends. What is the $ value of not being completely unwatchable for 2 years? It's not like they're going to use the money on something else. If a 2 WAR 1b helps you stay close to .500 a little longer into the season, maybe that $15 mil pays for itself while you develop other players? I'm pretty sure losing 120 games every year would not be good for the club's long-term financial health.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Depends. What is the $ value of not being completely unwatchable for 2 years? It's not like they're going to use the money on something else. If a 2 WAR 1b helps you stay close to .500 a little longer into the season, maybe that $15 mil pays for itself while you develop other players? I'm pretty sure losing 120 games every year would not be good for the club's long-term financial health.

Yes, because the leadership and performance of Andrew Vaughn was key to preventing the White Sox from losing 120 games in 2024. Without his leadership, they clearly would have lost 120+ games.

[Timmy U]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Yes, because the leadership and performance of Andrew Vaughn was key to preventing the White Sox from losing 120 games in 2024. Without his leadership, they clearly would have lost 120+ games.

Just asking the question. I think Vaughn is a fairly tough call when you have no credible replacement either in house or really on the market and a new hitting coach who may be able to help Vaughn. Your thought experiment was he's suddenly a decent offensive player. Obviously, if they think he is going to be as bad as he was last year, he's an obvious non-tender.

[almagest]

If we can't afford $6 million there are exactly zero 1B free agents worth signing over Vaughn out there. At best, you'll save a little money signing an older, declining, left-handed Vaughn-like guy with zero potential upside.

Trading a premium asset like Crochet for a 1B would be malpractice, so you're left with a smaller trade for a blocked 1B in another org (if one even exists), bringing Elko up, or retaining Vaughn.

[Bob Sacamano]

5 minutes ago, almagest said:

If we can't afford $6 million there are exactly zero 1B free agents worth signing over Vaughn out there. At best, you'll save a little money signing an older, declining, left-handed Vaughn-like guy with zero potential upside.

Trading a premium asset like Crochet for a 1B would be malpractice, so you're left with a smaller trade for a blocked 1B in another org (if one even exists), bringing Elko up, or retaining Vaughn.

That's why I want to either just get Vargas his at bats there (leave Ramos at 3B and play the mid/upper-20s year old OFs in the OF) or play Colas at 1B (he seems to be closer to a DFA candidate than MLB candidate at this point though).

Edited Friday at 06:13 PM by Bob Sacamano

[Snopek]

I’m not sure if this says more about Vaughn or the state of the roster, but either way I’m lol’ing that Vaughn has a legitimate shot at either:

1. Being non-tendered by the worst team of all time

2. Being the Sox most productive hitter in 2025