Hitting Prospects

[Chimpton]

Is it harder to identify/develop hitting/position players than pitching prospects? I only ask because the White Sox recently have an appaling record both with position players drafted or position player prospects traded for. whereas pitchers seem to be more successful.

Going back to 2010 Frirst Round Picks arguably only Tim Anderson has been a success as a position player pick, whereas Sale, Rodon and Crochet have all been good picks as pitchers.

So basically is it harder to identify position players who will succeed and even if you pick highly touted prospects, like Vaughan, is it harder for them to develop to MLB level?

[hi8is]

Appears to be the case unless you’re the dodgers, rays, orioles, Braves, or Indians…

Wonder what that says.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chimpton said:

Is it harder to identify/develop hitting/position players than pitching prospects? I only ask because the White Sox recently have an appaling record both with position players drafted or position player prospects traded for. whereas pitchers seem to be more successful.

Going back to 2010 Frirst Round Picks arguably only Tim Anderson has been a success as a position player pick, whereas Sale, Rodon and Crochet have all been good picks as pitchers.

So basically is it harder to identify position players who will succeed and even if you pick highly touted prospects, like Vaughan, is it harder for them to develop to MLB level?

Semien was drafted in the 34th round.

Tatis signed for a relative pittance.

Abreu was the target of only 2-3 teams because there were so many quality 1B back in 2014.

Luis Robert finished 12th in the 2023 MVP race and 2nd in 2020 RoY voting.

That's four MVP's or at least legit MVP candidates on the position player side.

[Chimpton]

11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Semien was drafted in the 34th round.

Tatis signed for a relative pittance.

Abreu was the target of only 2-3 teams because there were so many quality 1B back in 2014.

Luis Robert finished 12th in the 2023 MVP race and 2nd in 2020 RoY voting.

That's four MVP's or at least legit MVP candidates on the position player side.

Arguably Semien and Tatis only developed fully after leaving the White Sox.

Abreu was harly a prospect when signed as he had years of experience, albeit in Cuba.

As for Robert I will give you that one, although his 2024 was not MVP calibre.

[Chimpton]

39 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Appears to be the case unless you’re the dodgers, rays, orioles, Braves, or Indians…

Wonder what that says.

That is partly what I was asking, is it just harder to identify and develop hitting prospects or is it just a White Sox thing?

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, Chimpton said:

Is it harder to identify/develop hitting/position players than pitching prospects? I only ask because the White Sox recently have an appaling record both with position players drafted or position player prospects traded for. whereas pitchers seem to be more successful.

Going back to 2010 Frirst Round Picks arguably only Tim Anderson has been a success as a position player pick, whereas Sale, Rodon and Crochet have all been good picks as pitchers.

So basically is it harder to identify position players who will succeed and even if you pick highly touted prospects, like Vaughan, is it harder for them to develop to MLB level?

The hit tool is the hardest tool to project especially for international and HS guys because everyone who has a half decent swing and good athleticism can hit .400 as long the pitching is bad enough. I'm hitting .400 in my beer league every year too:).

In pitching 95 is 95 but in hitting the result is extremely dependent on the pitcher that you face.

 

College hitters have less variance and bust rate but also less upside when you get past best first couple college bat picks (typically a college second rounder or late first rounder will make mlb has a bench/utility bat ceiling while a hs bat in that range could be a good player or bust out in AA with a 40 % k rate.

 

Pitching of course also busts a lot, here it is more about injuries and also ability to throw strikes or hold your stuff through a pro schedule (every 5 days instead of once a week often velo drops).

With the sox hitting it was imo a combination of bad development and prioritizing safety over upside. Sheets for example really isn't that much of a disappointment, his bat is mlb bench quality (got a little unlucky with babip), problem is that he is a 1b/emergency outfielder with a bench bat.

 

 

[Chimpton]

1 hour ago, Dominikk85 said:

The hit tool is the hardest tool to project especially for international and HS guys because everyone who has a half decent swing and good athleticism can hit .400 as long the pitching is bad enough. I'm hitting .400 in my beer league every year too:).

In pitching 95 is 95 but in hitting the result is extremely dependent on the pitcher that you face.

 

College hitters have less variance and bust rate but also less upside when you get past best first couple college bat picks (typically a college second rounder or late first rounder will make mlb has a bench/utility bat ceiling while a hs bat in that range could be a good player or bust out in AA with a 40 % k rate.

 

Pitching of course also busts a lot, here it is more about injuries and also ability to throw strikes or hold your stuff through a pro schedule (every 5 days instead of once a week often velo drops).

With the sox hitting it was imo a combination of bad development and prioritizing safety over upside. Sheets for example really isn't that much of a disappointment, his bat is mlb bench quality (got a little unlucky with babip), problem is that he is a 1b/emergency outfielder with a bench bat.

 

 

Thank you, that was what I was wondering about. So projecting hitting prospects is harder and as a result riskier.

[Dick Allen]

When is the last time the Sox developed a player you would have no problem saying was a smart hitter? The weird thing is KW and RH at least used to be able to identify hitters, then for some reason, totally lost it. The early returns from Getz seem really poor.  

[Chimpton]

16 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

When is the last time the Sox developed a player you would have no problem saying was a smart hitter? The weird thing is KW and RH at least used to be able to identify hitters, then for some reason, totally lost it. The early returns from Getz seem really poor.  

The only one that sprang to mind was Tim Anderson, that was partly my point, is this a White Sox thing or is developing a hitting prospect harder?

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, Chimpton said:

The only one that sprang to mind was Tim Anderson, that was partly my point, is this a White Sox thing or is developing a hitting prospect harder?

He was a good hitter for several years, but was he a smart hitter? 

[Chimpton]

8 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

He was a good hitter for several years, but was he a smart hitter? 

Not so sure what you mean by 'smart hitter', but for a few years he was very good before suddenly falling off the cliff and becoming bad very quickly.

But in general White Sox hitting prospects seem to lack the consistency to have a long career, or lack the ability to adjust when they get a poor patch. Also many seem to struggle with the step up from AAA to MLB, so many seem to bounce around that AAAA level and not take the next step.

 

[Dick Allen]

29 minutes ago, Chimpton said:

Not so sure what you mean by 'smart hitter', but for a few years he was very good before suddenly falling off the cliff and becoming bad very quickly.

But in general White Sox hitting prospects seem to lack the consistency to have a long career, or lack the ability to adjust when they get a poor patch. Also many seem to struggle with the step up from AAA to MLB, so many seem to bounce around that AAAA level and not take the next step.

 

The biggest issue to me is almost everyone the bring up strikes out a ton and walks very little. I really thought Vaughn would be different. But that was wrong.  Obviously, there has been a lack of talent, but there also seems to be a lack of development. And anyone they sign or trade for has the same issues as well. 

[Chimpton]

11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The biggest issue to me is almost everyone the bring up strikes out a ton and walks very little. I really thought Vaughn would be different. But that was wrong.  Obviously, there has been a lack of talent, but there also seems to be a lack of development. And anyone they sign or trade for has the same issues as well. 

Yes, once on the MLB team they seem incabale of adjusting, or seem not to be coached in a way that helps them adjust, too many prospects who are hitting well at AAA struggle when brought up and face MLB pitching on a consistent basis and are then just sent back down to AAA and yo yo between the two, there seems to be little or no coaching or development after they join the MLB team.

[Dominikk85]

2 hours ago, Chimpton said:

Thank you, that was what I was wondering about. So projecting hitting prospects is harder and as a result riskier.

I would say mostly the hit tool is very hard to project, power and speed is easier to project but when you hit under the mendoza line the other tools don't matter much.

 

Pitchers of course have their own risk, mostly injury.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Projecting forward is the key but it's very difficult to do.  It's not about what the player is now or what he was in the past. It's about what's the player going to be in one year, three years, five years.  Mistakes are made when only looking backwards.  Makeup is a huge part of projecting forward and that's what makes it so tricky and why the teams that truely drill down on the makeup are the ones who are most successful at developing players.  

[Lyle Moooton]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Semien was drafted in the 34th round.

Tatis signed for a relative pittance.

Abreu was the target of only 2-3 teams because there were so many quality 1B back in 2014.

Luis Robert finished 12th in the 2023 MVP race and 2nd in 2020 RoY voting.

That's four MVP's or at least legit MVP candidates on the position player side.

6th round. Close though. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Lyle Moooton said:

6th round. Close though. 

Only a $130,000 signing bonus, though.

Once you're past the first 2-3 rounds...you're fighting long odds to make the major leagues based on past history.

[Lyle Moooton]

11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Only a $130,000 signing bonus, though.

Once you're past the first 2-3 rounds...you're fighting long odds to make the major leagues based on past history.

You’re right. 6th round and rounds so high they don’t exist anymore…same same. 
 

anyways, not worth a drawn out back and forth 

[southsider2k5]

11 hours ago, Chimpton said:

Is it harder to identify/develop hitting/position players than pitching prospects? I only ask because the White Sox recently have an appaling record both with position players drafted or position player prospects traded for. whereas pitchers seem to be more successful.

Going back to 2010 Frirst Round Picks arguably only Tim Anderson has been a success as a position player pick, whereas Sale, Rodon and Crochet have all been good picks as pitchers.

So basically is it harder to identify position players who will succeed and even if you pick highly touted prospects, like Vaughan, is it harder for them to develop to MLB level?

Well thankfully the people responsible for development have been rightfully fired.  Did I say fired?  I meant promoted.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 hours ago, Chimpton said:

Not so sure what you mean by 'smart hitter', but for a few years he was very good before suddenly falling off the cliff and becoming bad very quickly.

But in general White Sox hitting prospects seem to lack the consistency to have a long career, or lack the ability to adjust when they get a poor patch. Also many seem to struggle with the step up from AAA to MLB, so many seem to bounce around that AAAA level and not take the next step.

 

I call a smart hitter someone who  combines their physical gifts , with knowledge of hitting ,being good at recognizing pitch sequences, hitting in various counts, game preparedness like knowing the pitchers repertoire and tendencies.

Eyesight is very important in recognizing spin and processing that info in fractions of seconds to decide the swing path to make the ball hit the sweet spot and drive it. It's all done so quickly on every pitch and requires quick reflexes. and perhaps a quicker mind. Even then you have to gain experience and deal with your failures most at bats.

Imagine all the different ways hitters hold a bat ,all the different stances and swing mechanisms strides, toe tap. Ttsr can literally make millions of combined changes to how he swings the bat. For example where you hold your hands .It can be anywhere from waist high to above your head. Add that to all the ways to tilt the bat, stride . Then their are proper hitting mechanics.

Finding the right combo of things to do that unlocks you to be better is like finding a needle in a haystack for some and comes more naturally to others.

Personally I'd give prospects every eye test under the sun to test depth perception, color blindness, peripheral  vision. Since livh colored eyes are more sensitive to light Id see if  sunglasses are ever a for different colored eyes or if their are better sunglasses for artificial light like for night games.

It's said Ted Williams had 20/10 vision. But that's the extent most of us ever hear about vision. Test seems like an extremely important thing to do every year to every player.Slight worsening of vision could lead to bad results for hitters just as improved vision in sunlight and artificial light may improve hitting.

Hitting a baseball well is like sophisticated targetting systems in the military. It all starts with how well you see the moving target.

[46DidIt]

I believe it is particularly a Sox thing. Major league quality hitters are being produced somewhere else

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Lyle Moooton said:

You’re right. 6th round and rounds so high they don’t exist anymore…same same. 
 

anyways, not worth a drawn out back and forth 

They don't exist anymore because teams cut short season and A teams...Buehrle would never have been drafted in the 38th round in today's game because of minor league budget cuts after Covid.

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, 46DidIt said:

I believe it is particularly a Sox thing. Major league quality hitters are being produced somewhere else

The second biggest recent draft success after Anderson is arguably Burger... who was essentially written off by the Sox, he succeeded largely due to his own initiative.

At the very least, he can at least be considered a dangerous hitter who can make very solid contact based on EV, albeit one who Ks too much and doesn't walk enough and is defensively limited.

[Timmy U]

32 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They don't exist anymore because teams cut short season and A teams...Buehrle would never have been drafted in the 38th round in today's game because of minor league budget cuts after Covid.

Buerhle was a draft and follow. If Sox didn’t pay him, he would have been a top 10 rounds prospect. But your point is well taken.

[Dominikk85]

On 11/23/2024 at 9:08 PM, 46DidIt said:

I believe it is particularly a Sox thing. Major league quality hitters are being produced somewhere else

That is true, however it is still hard to produce above average mlb hitters. Even look at the dodgers,they are arguably the best team in developing and they had 5 homegrown players in the starting lineup of game 1 of the world series but only two of those where under 30. The dodgers haven't developed a good home grown hitter since Bellinger and Smith.

Or look how much trouble the Yankees have to develop home grown hitters.

Astros and Os seem to be good but if you discount the guys drafted top 5 overall it doesn't look all that good anymore.

Developing good home grown hitters consistently is extremely hard even for the best teams.

 

The same of course applies to starting pitching, super hard to produce consistent, durable starters.

Still even acknowledging it is hard the sox have been very had.

Especially bad has been the 2015-2019 period where they drafted 8, 10, 11, 4, 3.

Over those 5 years the sox got 

Fulmer, Collins, burger, madrigal and vaughn.

Here are some outcomes of draft years for those spots going back from 2021 (later it is too early to judge)

 

2021:

Benny Montgomery,Kumar rocker, brady house, Jackson Jobe, Marcelo Mayer

 

2020:

Robert hassell, Reid detmers, Garrett crochet, max Meyer, Asa lacey

2019:

Josh jung, hunter bishop, Alex menoah, vaughn (sox), bleday

2018:

Carter Stewart, Travis swaggerty, Grayson Rodriguez, Alec bohm, madrigal (sox)

2017:

Jo adell, Adam haseley, jake burger (sox), Mckenzie gore, Brendan McKay

2016: 

Cal quantril, Zach Collins (sox), Kyle Lewis, Ian Anderson, Riley pint

2015:

Tyler Stephenson, Cornelius Randolph, fulmer (sox), Brendan Rodgers, Dillon tate

 

2014:

Max pentecost, Michael conforto, Kyle Freeland, Carlos rodon (sox), Kyle schwarber

 

You see those selections (as a random selection to compare the sox against) aren't great But most have at least one player better than the best sox player from that time.