Hitting Prospects

[Chimpton]

Is it harder to identify/develop hitting/position players than pitching prospects? I only ask because the White Sox recently have an appaling record both with position players drafted or position player prospects traded for. whereas pitchers seem to be more successful.

Going back to 2010 Frirst Round Picks arguably only Tim Anderson has been a success as a position player pick, whereas Sale, Rodon and Crochet have all been good picks as pitchers.

So basically is it harder to identify position players who will succeed and even if you pick highly touted prospects, like Vaughan, is it harder for them to develop to MLB level?

[hi8is]

Appears to be the case unless you’re the dodgers, rays, orioles, Braves, or Indians…

Wonder what that says.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chimpton said:

Is it harder to identify/develop hitting/position players than pitching prospects? I only ask because the White Sox recently have an appaling record both with position players drafted or position player prospects traded for. whereas pitchers seem to be more successful.

Going back to 2010 Frirst Round Picks arguably only Tim Anderson has been a success as a position player pick, whereas Sale, Rodon and Crochet have all been good picks as pitchers.

So basically is it harder to identify position players who will succeed and even if you pick highly touted prospects, like Vaughan, is it harder for them to develop to MLB level?

Semien was drafted in the 34th round.

Tatis signed for a relative pittance.

Abreu was the target of only 2-3 teams because there were so many quality 1B back in 2014.

Luis Robert finished 12th in the 2023 MVP race and 2nd in 2020 RoY voting.

That's four MVP's or at least legit MVP candidates on the position player side.

[Chimpton]

11 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Semien was drafted in the 34th round.

Tatis signed for a relative pittance.

Abreu was the target of only 2-3 teams because there were so many quality 1B back in 2014.

Luis Robert finished 12th in the 2023 MVP race and 2nd in 2020 RoY voting.

That's four MVP's or at least legit MVP candidates on the position player side.

Arguably Semien and Tatis only developed fully after leaving the White Sox.

Abreu was harly a prospect when signed as he had years of experience, albeit in Cuba.

As for Robert I will give you that one, although his 2024 was not MVP calibre.

[Chimpton]

39 minutes ago, hi8is said:

Appears to be the case unless you’re the dodgers, rays, orioles, Braves, or Indians…

Wonder what that says.

That is partly what I was asking, is it just harder to identify and develop hitting prospects or is it just a White Sox thing?

[Dominikk85]

1 hour ago, Chimpton said:

Is it harder to identify/develop hitting/position players than pitching prospects? I only ask because the White Sox recently have an appaling record both with position players drafted or position player prospects traded for. whereas pitchers seem to be more successful.

Going back to 2010 Frirst Round Picks arguably only Tim Anderson has been a success as a position player pick, whereas Sale, Rodon and Crochet have all been good picks as pitchers.

So basically is it harder to identify position players who will succeed and even if you pick highly touted prospects, like Vaughan, is it harder for them to develop to MLB level?

The hit tool is the hardest tool to project especially for international and HS guys because everyone who has a half decent swing and good athleticism can hit .400 as long the pitching is bad enough. I'm hitting .400 in my beer league every year too:).

In pitching 95 is 95 but in hitting the result is extremely dependent on the pitcher that you face.

 

College hitters have less variance and bust rate but also less upside when you get past best first couple college bat picks (typically a college second rounder or late first rounder will make mlb has a bench/utility bat ceiling while a hs bat in that range could be a good player or bust out in AA with a 40 % k rate.

 

Pitching of course also busts a lot, here it is more about injuries and also ability to throw strikes or hold your stuff through a pro schedule (every 5 days instead of once a week often velo drops).

With the sox hitting it was imo a combination of bad development and prioritizing safety over upside. Sheets for example really isn't that much of a disappointment, his bat is mlb bench quality (got a little unlucky with babip), problem is that he is a 1b/emergency outfielder with a bench bat.

 

 

[Chimpton]

1 hour ago, Dominikk85 said:

The hit tool is the hardest tool to project especially for international and HS guys because everyone who has a half decent swing and good athleticism can hit .400 as long the pitching is bad enough. I'm hitting .400 in my beer league every year too:).

In pitching 95 is 95 but in hitting the result is extremely dependent on the pitcher that you face.

 

College hitters have less variance and bust rate but also less upside when you get past best first couple college bat picks (typically a college second rounder or late first rounder will make mlb has a bench/utility bat ceiling while a hs bat in that range could be a good player or bust out in AA with a 40 % k rate.

 

Pitching of course also busts a lot, here it is more about injuries and also ability to throw strikes or hold your stuff through a pro schedule (every 5 days instead of once a week often velo drops).

With the sox hitting it was imo a combination of bad development and prioritizing safety over upside. Sheets for example really isn't that much of a disappointment, his bat is mlb bench quality (got a little unlucky with babip), problem is that he is a 1b/emergency outfielder with a bench bat.

 

 

Thank you, that was what I was wondering about. So projecting hitting prospects is harder and as a result riskier.

[Dick Allen]

When is the last time the Sox developed a player you would have no problem saying was a smart hitter? The weird thing is KW and RH at least used to be able to identify hitters, then for some reason, totally lost it. The early returns from Getz seem really poor.  

[Chimpton]

16 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

When is the last time the Sox developed a player you would have no problem saying was a smart hitter? The weird thing is KW and RH at least used to be able to identify hitters, then for some reason, totally lost it. The early returns from Getz seem really poor.  

The only one that sprang to mind was Tim Anderson, that was partly my point, is this a White Sox thing or is developing a hitting prospect harder?

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, Chimpton said:

The only one that sprang to mind was Tim Anderson, that was partly my point, is this a White Sox thing or is developing a hitting prospect harder?

He was a good hitter for several years, but was he a smart hitter? 

[Chimpton]

8 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

He was a good hitter for several years, but was he a smart hitter? 

Not so sure what you mean by 'smart hitter', but for a few years he was very good before suddenly falling off the cliff and becoming bad very quickly.

But in general White Sox hitting prospects seem to lack the consistency to have a long career, or lack the ability to adjust when they get a poor patch. Also many seem to struggle with the step up from AAA to MLB, so many seem to bounce around that AAAA level and not take the next step.

 

[Dick Allen]

29 minutes ago, Chimpton said:

Not so sure what you mean by 'smart hitter', but for a few years he was very good before suddenly falling off the cliff and becoming bad very quickly.

But in general White Sox hitting prospects seem to lack the consistency to have a long career, or lack the ability to adjust when they get a poor patch. Also many seem to struggle with the step up from AAA to MLB, so many seem to bounce around that AAAA level and not take the next step.

 

The biggest issue to me is almost everyone the bring up strikes out a ton and walks very little. I really thought Vaughn would be different. But that was wrong.  Obviously, there has been a lack of talent, but there also seems to be a lack of development. And anyone they sign or trade for has the same issues as well. 

[Chimpton]

11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

The biggest issue to me is almost everyone the bring up strikes out a ton and walks very little. I really thought Vaughn would be different. But that was wrong.  Obviously, there has been a lack of talent, but there also seems to be a lack of development. And anyone they sign or trade for has the same issues as well. 

Yes, once on the MLB team they seem incabale of adjusting, or seem not to be coached in a way that helps them adjust, too many prospects who are hitting well at AAA struggle when brought up and face MLB pitching on a consistent basis and are then just sent back down to AAA and yo yo between the two, there seems to be little or no coaching or development after they join the MLB team.

[Dominikk85]

2 hours ago, Chimpton said:

Thank you, that was what I was wondering about. So projecting hitting prospects is harder and as a result riskier.

I would say mostly the hit tool is very hard to project, power and speed is easier to project but when you hit under the mendoza line the other tools don't matter much.

 

Pitchers of course have their own risk, mostly injury.