White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, Chick Mercedes said:

Don’t we even have Japanese ‘Madrigal’ now in the system? Of course. We want all the Madrigals.

Nishida

[ChiSox59]

33 minutes ago, Chick Mercedes said:

Question is… but why?

Why am I retaining him?  Because his career fWAR/162 is 4.35 - including his god awful 2024 and other long stretches where he hasn't look like a big leaguer. He is just reaching his prime years.  He's unlikely to ever give you 145+ games, but he doesn't need to do that to easily be worth $20M in today's game. He's a game changing talent that is obviously extremely streaky, but if the streak comes early in 2025 (or 26), we're sitting on the most sought after position player at the deadline.  And if you want to assume Robert just is what he is, he's still a very good CF with a lot of pop, and the ability to carry a team for weeks if he gets hot.  On an actual contender with legitimate protection around him, I am certain he would be much closer to the 23 version than 24. 

Edited Wednesday at 03:19 PM by ChiSox59

[LittleHurtCG]

17 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Amazing that we have seen Madrigal already with the Sox, saw what he did with the Cubs, then watched his horrible older clone in Nicky Lopez last year, and anyone would still want to see Madrigal back with this team.

It should be pretty obvious at this point that Madrigal’s game doesn’t play in the MLB, just like Lopez’s doesn’t.

His game was never going to play in MLB. Still amazing to me that the Sox tanked an entire season only to draft Madrigal with a top 5 pick. You never ever use a top5 pick on a guy who can barely clear the fence with a wooden bat during batting practice. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Why am I retaining him?  Because his career fWAR/162 is 4.35 - including his god awful 2024 and other long stretches where he hasn't look like a big leaguer. He is just reaching his prime years.  He's unlikely to ever give you 145+ games, but he doesn't need to do that to easily be worth $20M in today's game. He's a game changing talent that is obviously extremely streaky, but if the streak comes early in 2025 (or 26), we're sitting on the most sought after position player at the deadline.  And if you want to assume Robert just is what he is, he's still a very good CF with a lot of pop, and the ability to carry a team for weeks if he gets hot.  On an actual contender with legitimate protection around him, I am certain he would be much closer to the 23 version than 24. 

The problem is the odds of getting the 2023 version of Robert in 2025 is like hoping for the 2019 version of Moncada in 2021 and on. False hope, very likely not happening. He might bounce back a bit from his 2024 season like Moncada did in 2021 but it won’t be enough imo to improve his trade value much once you factor in the half season less of control. There just isn’t going to be much value there whether you trade him now or in July. The Phillies are basically looking to dump Bohm coming off a 3.5 FWAR season partly because he’s projected to make ~$8M in 2025 and ~$12M in 2026 via arbitration. In a straight up trade for Bohm, you’re probably getting a 50 FV and 40/45 FV prospect in return. This is about what I’d expect for Robert right now as well as in July even if he bounces back a bit.

[ChiSox59]

9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The problem is the odds of getting the 2023 version of Robert in 2025 is like hoping for the 2019 version of Moncada in 2021 and on. False hope, very likely not happening. He might bounce back a bit from his 2024 season like Moncada did in 2021 but it won’t be enough imo to improve his trade value much once you factor in the half season less of control. There just isn’t going to be much value there whether you trade him now or in July. The Phillies are basically looking to dump Bohm coming off a 3.5 FWAR season partly because he’s projected to make ~$8M in 2025 and ~$12M in 2026 via arbitration. In a straight up trade for Bohm, you’re probably getting a 50 FV and 40/45 FV prospect in return. This is about what I’d expect for Robert right now as well as in July even if he bounces back a bit.

I disagree.  I will leave it at that. 

[almagest]

33 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

His game was never going to play in MLB. Still amazing to me that the Sox tanked an entire season only to draft Madrigal with a top 5 pick. You never ever use a top5 pick on a guy who can barely clear the fence with a wooden bat during batting practice. 

It was a long, hard road to get to this level of futility, and drafting duds like Madrigal at the top of the first round was a big part of it.

[WestEddy]

11 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The problem is the odds of getting the 2023 version of Robert in 2025 is like hoping for the 2019 version of Moncada in 2021 and on. False hope, very likely not happening. He might bounce back a bit from his 2024 season like Moncada did in 2021 but it won’t be enough imo to improve his trade value much once you factor in the half season less of control. There just isn’t going to be much value there whether you trade him now or in July. The Phillies are basically looking to dump Bohm coming off a 3.5 FWAR season partly because he’s projected to make ~$8M in 2025 and ~$12M in 2026 via arbitration. In a straight up trade for Bohm, you’re probably getting a 50 FV and 40/45 FV prospect in return. This is about what I’d expect for Robert right now as well as in July even if he bounces back a bit.

This is silly. Bohm is a schlub who finally put up a good half season, while still being bad, defensively. Robert has put up "average major leaguer" WAR in all of his 5 pro years, and has exceeded that, twice. The risk of keeping Robert into the season is that he gets injured, again. Any organization has to look at him as unrealized talent that can be coached back above Bohm's whopping big 3 WAR season pretty easily. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

29 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

This is silly. Bohm is a schlub who finally put up a good half season, while still being bad, defensively. Robert has put up "average major leaguer" WAR in all of his 5 pro years, and has exceeded that, twice. The risk of keeping Robert into the season is that he gets injured, again. Any organization has to look at him as unrealized talent that can be coached back above Bohm's whopping big 3 WAR season pretty easily. 

Bohm has a career 7.7 fWAR, Robert has a career 12.5 fWAR. Bohm is coming off a far better season than Robert. Bohm is cheaper than Robert the next two seasons. Bohm has a better track record of staying healthy compared to Robert. I don’t think their trade values are as different as you seem to think.

[southsider2k5]

45 minutes ago, almagest said:

It was a long, hard road to get to this level of futility, and drafting duds like Madrigal at the top of the first round was a big part of it.

The thing is there is a team out there in our division who turned a Madrigal like player into one of the leading skill hitters in baseball in Steven Kwan.  Of course the Sox rushed Madrigal and we will never if taking a more deliberate and intelligent approach to his dev would have changed his path enough.

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Bohm has a career 7.7 fWAR, Robert has a career 12.5 fWAR. Bohm is coming off a far better season than Robert. Bohm is cheaper than Robert the next two seasons. Bohm has a better track record of staying healthy compared to Robert. I don’t think their trade values are as different as you seem to think.

Robert has a fWAR/162 of 4.35.  Bohm's is 2.08.  Plus, Robert has an extra year of control.  Both can be non-tendered and/or bought out in case of major injury or fall off.  They aren't close to comparable values no matter how much you try.

[LittleHurtCG]

19 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The thing is there is a team out there in our division who turned a Madrigal like player into one of the leading skill hitters in baseball in Steven Kwan.  Of course the Sox rushed Madrigal and we will never if taking a more deliberate and intelligent approach to his dev would have changed his path enough.

The big difference here is that Steven Kwan was a fifth round pick. It is very impressive that Cleveland turned him into a very solid ballplayer. Madrigal was a top 5 pick and the Sox chose a dude who can barley clear the fence during batting practice. Little Nicky was a 4th or 5th round talent, but the Sox couldn't see it. Very unfortunate. 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, LittleHurtCG said:

The big difference here is that Steven Kwan was a fifth round pick. It is very impressive that Cleveland turned him into a very solid ballplayer. Madrigal was a top 5 pick and the Sox chose a dude who can barley clear the fence during batting practice. Little Nicky was a 4th or 5th round talent, but the Sox couldn't see it. Very unfortunate. 

The whole world thought Nick was a high first round pick.  If the Sox didn't select him, someone else would have.  The Sox failed in developing him.  Luis Arraez and Kwan show you that it CAN be done with a guy of his skillset.  Granted, they could have drafted better, but don't let that failure, hide the development failure here.

[almagest]

20 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The thing is there is a team out there in our division who turned a Madrigal like player into one of the leading skill hitters in baseball in Steven Kwan.  Of course the Sox rushed Madrigal and we will never if taking a more deliberate and intelligent approach to his dev would have changed his path enough.

You know, I was thinking "oh Kwan has to be have way better hitting metrics than Madrigal", but they're very, very similar. Kwan just maximizes this profile because he doesn't chase, which means he takes a lot of walks and makes good swing decisions, meaning his subpar exit velocity doesn't matter as much - Kwan is 94th percentile in xBA, Madrigal is way lower.

Fixing Madrigal could be as simple as getting him to not swing at trash, but if it were that easy I'd imagine the Cubs would've done it.

[LittleHurtCG]

10 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The whole world thought Nick was a high first round pick.  If the Sox didn't select him, someone else would have.  The Sox failed in developing him.  Luis Arraez and Kwan show you that it CAN be done with a guy of his skillset.  Granted, they could have drafted better, but don't let that failure, hide the development failure here.

Neither Steve Kwan nor Luis Arraez were top 5 picks. Both dudes had to bust their assess off to get where they are today. Again, it would have been okay I suppose if the Sox were drafting in the back end of the first round and took a guy like Lil Nicky. Taking a dude with his profile with a top 5 pick though was pure lunancy. 

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Bohm has a career 7.7 fWAR, Robert has a career 12.5 fWAR. Bohm is coming off a far better season than Robert. Bohm is cheaper than Robert the next two seasons. Bohm has a better track record of staying healthy compared to Robert. I don’t think their trade values are as different as you seem to think.

Robert averages 1 win more a year than Bohm. He has a defensive home, and has consistently produced at least average f and bWAR throughout his career. "Schlub" may have been strong, but Robert has a higher ceiling that he has already shown himself capable of reaching. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Robert averages 1 win more a year than Bohm. He has a defensive home, and has consistently produced at least average f and bWAR throughout his career. "Schlub" may have been strong, but Robert has a higher ceiling that he has already shown himself capable of reaching. 

Agreed on higher ceiling but that doesn’t change my point. Sometimes the floor matters too for a team that is looking to win now.

[T R U]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

The whole world thought Nick was a high first round pick.  If the Sox didn't select him, someone else would have.  The Sox failed in developing him.  Luis Arraez and Kwan show you that it CAN be done with a guy of his skillset.  Granted, they could have drafted better, but don't let that failure, hide the development failure here.

Did they though?

Madrigal put up 1.7 bWAR in 83 games for the Sox. He slashed .317 / .358 / .764, which for a no power 2B is perfectly acceptable. Once he left though, he bottomed out.

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, LittleHurtCG said:

Neither Steve Kwan nor Luis Arraez were top 5 picks. Both dudes had to bust their assess off to get where they are today. Again, it would have been okay I suppose if the Sox were drafting in the back end of the first round and took a guy like Lil Nicky. Taking a dude with his profile with a top 5 pick though was pure lunancy. 

Yet pretty much all of MLB was ready to do so.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, T R U said:

Did they though?

Madrigal put up 1.7 bWAR in 83 games for the Sox. He slashed .317 / .358 / .764, which for a no power 2B is perfectly acceptable. Once he left though, he bottomed out.

Good point and, since this is the Robert thread, Madrigal’s fWAR per PA in a Sox uniform was nearly the same as Luis Robert’s. Scary thought I know.

[southsider2k5]

4 hours ago, T R U said:

Did they though?

Madrigal put up 1.7 bWAR in 83 games for the Sox. He slashed .317 / .358 / .764, which for a no power 2B is perfectly acceptable. Once he left though, he bottomed out.

Sure.  It's not like it was a fluke and he got figured out, what with his major league success and all.  Obviously it worked.

[caulfield12]

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alec-bohm/21618/stats?position=3B

Bohm was worth 3.5 fWAR this past season...but faded greatly.

At any rate, he was the pick right before Madrigal, and he has "only" been worth 7.7 fWAR his entire Phillies' career, so let's not pretend that even if we were drafting 3rd, we would have been much better off.

Obviously taking a 3B in 2018 would have seemingly been less of a priority with Moncada already in place...but then one has to consider that they drafted Madrigal top 5 with the likely intention already of moving Moncada to 3B over in 2019 (which is what actually happened at least).

Let's not forget 2018 Moncada was a very "average-ish" 2B defensively and he struck out more times than anyone in baseball (especially as a RHB) and recorded a 2ish bWAR/fWAR.

And Madrigal was considered an immediate "plug and play" finished product, whereas Bohm was more of a developmental/higher offensive potential but the upside/ceiling type.

[Paulie4Pres]

On 11/26/2024 at 8:22 AM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/829581/chicago-white-sox-operating-income/#:~:text=In 2023%2C the operating loss,totaled 40 million U.S. dollars.

Are you stupid?

[WhiteSox2023]

8 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Robert averages 1 win more a year than Bohm. He has a defensive home, and has consistently produced at least average f and bWAR throughout his career. "Schlub" may have been strong, but Robert has a higher ceiling that he has already shown himself capable of reaching. 

Agreed, WE.  I was actually surprised that the Phillies are looking to include Bohm in every deal.  He’s no star, but he’a a very good player, especially for his arbitration price.

But do you agree that the Sox would be best served immediately trading Bohm for additional prospects if they do acquire him as a second or third piece in any Crochet trade?  I think that makes the most sense.  The Sox won’t be competing in the two year window that Bohm is under control.

I love the idea of acquiring two top prospects and Bohm and dealing Bohm for a couple lesser (but still good) prospects, whether that be in a three team deal or two separate trades by the Sox.  That could be a pretty good haul for Crochet, considering his risk and not having to pay him in a couple years.

Edited Thursday at 03:38 AM by WhiteSox2023

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

53 minutes ago, Paulie4Pres said:

Are you stupid?

Are you?

[GreenSox]

1 hour ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Agreed, WE.  I was actually surprised that the Phillies are looking to include in every deal.  He’s no star, but he’a a very good player, especially for his arbitration price.

But do you agree that the Sox would be best served immediately trading Bohm for additional prospects if they do acquire him as a second or third piece in any Crochet trade?  I think that makes the most sense.  The Sox won’t be competing in the two year window that Bohm is under control.

I love the idea of acquiring two top prospects and Bohm and dealing Bohm for a couple lesser (but still good) prospects, whether that be in a three team deal or two separate trades by the Sox.  That could be a pretty good haul for Crochet, considering his risk and not having to pay him in a couple years.

If Bohm is part of it, and the Sox should try to accommodate that for Philly, they need to bring in a 3rd team in.  Those prospects will be part of the package and could affect what we want/need from Philly.  This "flip" stuff never works.

I don't think Philly is trying to give him away; heck, they still may be pushing for him to be their main piece, similar to Edman in the Fedde deal.  Hopefully Getz performs a lot better this time.

As for Robert, I don't see much downside in keeping him around for $20 million, unless the Sox would actually dispatch that $20 million for player they think can be more productive than Robert.  Of course the Sox should spend $; need to spend $;  Getz can finally make inspired trades and draft picks and it will still be extremely difficult to rebuild this operation from ground zero without spending.