White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert

[southsider2k5]

5 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

So you focus on Acuna’s minor league season in 2024 but ignore his 2023 minor league season as well as his 2024 performance in mlb at age 22 and then focus on Robert’s 2023 season but ignore his 2024 season as well as his injury history across his entire career? Got it.

To be fair, I would always put more weight on a major league experience, vs a minor league one, but maybe that is just me.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

So you focus on Acuna’s minor league season in 2024 but ignore his 2023 minor league season as well as his 2024 performance in mlb at age 22 and then focus on Robert’s 2023 season but ignore his 2024 season as well as his injury history across his entire career? Got it.

No, I look at everything, although I don’t put much weight on 40 major league plate appearances where is wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by nearly 100 points.

My point was you only look at Robert’s 2024 and say he’s a worthless asset, but don’t do the same for Acuna who is coming off a very rough AAA season and instead try to anchor off a 40 plate appearance sample in the majors.

The reality is that Luis Robert has been a 4.75 fWAR per 600 plate appearances type player prior to last season.  There is no arguing against the injury history, but the bulk of the time missed is related to two hip flexor injuries.  Regardless, there is certainly a high risk of some missed playing time with him.  But hell, if he can give you even 450 plate appearances you’re probably looking at a 3.5 win player which is more or less a top 7 CF.  And that’s super valuable when you consider a guy like Tyler O’Neil just got 3/$50M despite his own injury history.

Ultimately, I’m not going to trade a guy who I believe will be a 3+ win player next year for a guy who has failed in the majors over a 600 PA sample and a prospect coming off a really rough 2024 season.  I need much more of a sure thing if I’m dealing Robert right now…otherwise hold until the deadline and hopefully do better.

[zisk]

Trade this turkey ASAP. The last link to a disastrous past. One top 100 and a young 

lottery ticket. I hate being harsh about Luis because he's not really an a#$hole. But

that ship has sailed and the quicker we get to 2026 the better.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

My point was you only look at Robert’s 2024 and say he’s a worthless asset, but don’t do the same for Acuna who is coming off a very rough AAA season and instead try to anchor off a 40 plate appearance sample in the majors.

Aren't you looking at Acuna and saying he's a worthless asset based on his 2024 but not doing the same thing for Robert?

[Chicago White Sox]

46 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Aren't you looking at Acuna and saying he's a worthless asset based on his 2024 but not doing the same thing for Robert?

I’ve never once called Acuna a worthless asset, but his outlook and value is certainly suppressed after a rough 2024.  As for Robert, I just outlined how good of a player he was in the majors prior to the 2024 season.  It’s far easier to believe a guy with a track record of success in the majors will perform at that level again after a single rough season vs. the prospect who has never been successful at the level he failed at.

[Balta1701]

23 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve never once called Acuna a worthless asset, but his outlook and value is certainly suppressed after a rough 2024.  As for Robert, I just outlined how good of a player he was in the majors prior to the 2024 season.  It’s far easier to believe a guy with a track record of success in the majors will perform at that level again after a single rough season vs. the prospect who has never been successful at the level he failed at.

But at the same time, the guy with that longer track record of success has:

1. An extremely long injury history.

2. A salary 20x higher.

3. A maximum of 3 years of control..

I agree with you I don't care about 40 PAs of big league time. If you could get a couple of guys who added up to 10 years of control, one of whom is like Colson Montgomery in that they were extremely well regarded a year ago but who had rough 2024s, that's a pretty good starting point for me on paper. Having those two guys would be a lot better than Robert having his option turned down after paying him $15 million this year and having him get hurt.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

To be fair, I would always put more weight on a major league experience, vs a minor league one, but maybe that is just me.

To be fair, Acuna performed well in MLB in September. In fact, he had a higher fWAR in MLB in 2024 than Luis Robert.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No, I look at everything, although I don’t put much weight on 40 major league plate appearances where is wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by nearly 100 points.

My point was you only look at Robert’s 2024 and say he’s a worthless asset, but don’t do the same for Acuna who is coming off a very rough AAA season and instead try to anchor off a 40 plate appearance sample in the majors.

The reality is that Luis Robert has been a 4.75 fWAR per 600 plate appearances type player prior to last season.  There is no arguing against the injury history, but the bulk of the time missed is related to two hip flexor injuries.  Regardless, there is certainly a high risk of some missed playing time with him.  But hell, if he can give you even 450 plate appearances you’re probably looking at a 3.5 win player which is more or less a top 7 CF.  And that’s super valuable when you consider a guy like Tyler O’Neil just got 3/$50M despite his own injury history.

Ultimately, I’m not going to trade a guy who I believe will be a 3+ win player next year for a guy who has failed in the majors over a 600 PA sample and a prospect coming off a really rough 2024 season.  I need much more of a sure thing if I’m dealing Robert right now…otherwise hold until the deadline and hopefully do better.

Worthless asset? Where do you come up with this stuff? You may think Acuna and Baty are worthless but I clearly don’t. I thought that much was obvious from my previous replies but I guess not.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Back to the topic. I’d be shocked if Robert isn’t traded before opening day. Probably need a couple FA OFs like Santander and Teoscar to sign to really get Robert’s market moving.

 

[Tnetennba]

17 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Acuna is a top 10 prospect for the Mets and a 50 FV prospect imo. The only position player prospect on the Mets I’d take ahead of him is Jett. I think you’re underselling him and very likely overvaluing Robert as well.

He was the Mets #12 prospect entering 2024, and after his season in AAA likely doesn't crack their top 10 in 2025.

[Tnetennba]

14 hours ago, SoCalChiSox said:

Even tho alot of people think Baty will eventually be a pretty good hitter, his profile isn't what Getz wants, for better or for worse.

Right now Getz wants up the middle SS and CF types with good gloves and good to decent speed on the basepaths. So I think he is gonna want Williams as the top piece and Acuna as the second. If he has to sell relatively low on Robert, then he's gonna try to get two pieces that NYM will also need to sell low on and hope he's filled two big holes with bounceback seasons from them.

I'd take both Acuña and Baty, but I need a real headliner to move Robert. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

He was the Mets #12 prospect entering 2024, and after his season in AAA likely doesn't crack their top 10 in 2025.

He was #12 on pipeline’s mid season update. I’d be willing to wager he’s top 10 when they update in a couple months. Where does he rank on the recent Baseball America update?

[southsider2k5]

24 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

To be fair, Acuna performed well in MLB in September. In fact, he had a higher fWAR in MLB in 2024 than Luis Robert.

So did Lenyn Sosa.  Would you trade him for Luis Robert?

[Tnetennba]

2 hours ago, zisk said:

Trade this turkey ASAP. The last link to a disastrous past. One top 100 and a young 

lottery ticket. I hate being harsh about Luis because he's not really an a#$hole. But

that ship has sailed and the quicker we get to 2026 the better.

Did JR exit stage left?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Center field is coming off its worst offensive season in 100+ years. For the vast majority of the year it was the worst performing position in baseball- behind catchers.

The skill set Robert possesses, in a game very low on center field talent, should cost a premium regardless of his struggles last year in a historically bad position.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So did Lenyn Sosa.  Would you trade him for Luis Robert?

Sosa can’t field and is a knuckle head in the field and on the bases. Plus, he’s two years older and already down one year of  team control. So to answer your question - NO.

[Tnetennba]

9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

He was #12 on pipeline’s mid season update. I’d be willing to wager he’s top 10 when they update in a couple months. Where does he rank on the recent Baseball America update?

I'm not a BA subscriber, but I doubt they ignore his Syracuse numbers the way you want us all to. 

[Tnetennba]

28 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

To be fair, Acuna performed well in MLB in September. In fact, he had a higher fWAR in MLB in 2024 than Luis Robert.

In a very small sample size.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Center field is coming off its worst offensive season in 100+ years. For the vast majority of the year it was the worst performing position in baseball- behind catchers.

The skill set Robert possesses, in a game very low on center field talent, should cost a premium regardless of his struggles last year in a historically bad position.

Right, which is why a guy like Acuna given his age and cheap team control is valuable in today’s game if he can put up a .650-.700 OPS while playing a very good CF/2b and stealing a bunch of bases.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

In a very small sample size.

Which makes it even crazier that he had a higher fWAR considering fWAR is a counting stat not a rate stat.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

I'm not a BA subscriber, but I doubt they ignore his Syracuse numbers the way you want us all to. 

I never said ignore it. I already acknowledged he struggled at the plate in AAA as a 22 year old. So did Colson Montgomery. So I guess they both suck and have no future?? The thing about Acuna though is he plays good defense and is a demon on the bases. I’m not sure we can say the same for Colson.

[Fielder Jones]

if someone last year this time offered a 35+ FV prospect for Crochet, the line of thinking woulve been 'sure take it, Crochet's a last link to a disastrous past'

i would hold onto Robert and try to rebuild something for half a year there. if you trade now for pennies then you'll have to complain when he's at full health and back to a 38 HR pace

we shouldnt make trades because we're upset about hahn or kenny. make trades when the time is ripe

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Right, which is why a guy like Acuna given his age and cheap team control is valuable in today’s game if he can put up a .650-.700 OPS while playing a very good CF/2b and stealing a bunch of bases.

We don't need another utility type player as a central part of a trade like this.

 

7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I never said ignore it. I already acknowledged he struggled at the plate in AAA as a 22 year old. So did Colson Montgomery. So I guess they both suck and have no future?? The thing about Acuna though is he plays good defense and is a demon on the bases. I’m not sure we can say the same for Colson.

I also wouldn't expect a team to take on Colson Montgomery for a high level MLB guy

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, Fielder Jones said:

if someone last year this time offered a 35+ FV prospect for Crochet, the line of thinking woulve been 'sure take it, Crochet's a last link to a disastrous past'

i would hold onto Robert and try to rebuild something for half a year there. if you trade now for pennies then you'll have to complain when he's at full health and back to a 38 HR pace

we shouldnt make trades because we're upset about hahn or kenny. make trades when the time is ripe

One big difference between Robert and Crochet - $$$. Crochet was basically league minimum last season and this season. If all goes well, he’ll earn roughly $10M next season perhaps? Compare that to $15M, $20M, $20M. When interested teams like the Phillies and Reds are already near the top of their budgets, that extra $10-15M per year makes a difference in trade value. 

Additionally, Crochet had almost no track record prior to 2024 so in reality the arrow could only go up if he managed to stay healthy in the SP role. I don’t believe that to be the case with Robert. Much of the arguments to holding on to him revolve around the possibility he reverts back to his prior form so if he doesn’t his stock falls further. Different situation imo.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

We don't need another utility type player as a central part of a trade like this.

 

I also wouldn't expect a team to take on Colson Montgomery for a high level MLB guy

Then your expectations are way off imo. If the Sox can get a T100 mlb prospect plus another low level semi interesting piece for Robert I’m taking that all day.