White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

One big difference between Robert and Crochet - $$$. Crochet was basically league minimum last season and this season. If all goes well, he’ll earn roughly $10M next season perhaps? Compare that to $15M, $20M, $20M. When interested teams like the Phillies and Reds are already near the top of their budgets, that extra $10-15M per year makes a difference in trade value. 

Additionally, Crochet had almost no track record prior to 2024 so in reality the arrow could only go up if he managed to stay healthy in the SP role. I don’t believe that to be the case with Robert. Much of the arguments to holding on to him revolve around the possibility he reverts back to his prior form so if he doesn’t his stock falls further. Different situation imo.

Look at the free agent market.  Even Luis Robert for 2/3 of a season is worth his contract.  That is a non-factor in 2025.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Look at the free agent market.  Even Luis Robert for 2/3 of a season is worth his contract.  That is a non-factor in 2025.

True but "Worth his contract" is a guy who doesn't return you much in a trade. "Worth a lot more than you contract" is worth a lot in a trade.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

True but "Worth his contract" is a guy who doesn't return you much in a trade. "Worth a lot more than you contract" is worth a lot in a trade.

And that is where the ceiling comes into account.  Again, if we don't get that kind of an offer, I am more than content with sitting on him, like we should have done with Cease.

[Tnetennba]

15 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I never said ignore it. I already acknowledged he struggled at the plate in AAA as a 22 year old. So did Colson Montgomery. So I guess they both suck and have no future?? The thing about Acuna though is he plays good defense and is a demon on the bases. I’m not sure we can say the same for Colson.

I wouldn't trade Robert for a Colson Montgomery headlined package either.

I've already said I would take Acuña as a secondary piece, but as a headliner he doesn't move the needle for me. I watch a lot of Met's games and saw plenty of Acuña's September at bats. I think he ends up as a fine utility guy with speed, but I don't see MLB regular, and certainly not someone I see leading a trade package for an Allstar calibre CF.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

I wouldn't trade Robert for a Colson Montgomery headlined package either.

I've already said I would take Acuña as a secondary piece, but as a headliner he doesn't move the needle for me. I watch a lot of Met's games and saw plenty of Acuña's September at bats. I think he ends up as a fine utility guy with speed, but I don't see MLB regular, and certainly not someone I see leading a trade package for an Allstar calibre CF.

Luis Robert has made one all star appearance. Let’s not act like he’s some perennial all star. The version I watched for 6 months earlier this year looked more like a replacement level player if I’m being honest. With Robert, it used to be well he just has to stay on the field and he’s great. 2024 kind of proved that’s no longer the case. Maybe 2024 was a one off and just a byproduct of a historically bad team but what if it wasn’t? If he performs in 2025 like he did in 2024, nobody in MLB is picking up that 2026 option.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Look at the free agent market.  Even Luis Robert for 2/3 of a season is worth his contract.  That is a non-factor in 2025.

False. Money is always a factor. We recently witnessed Cody Bellinger sign a 3 year $80M contract coming off a very good season. After one just ok (but much better than 2024 Robert) season, the Cubs were desperate to dump him just to get rid of his remaining salary (2/$47.5M).

[Fielder Jones]

21 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

One big difference between Robert and Crochet - $$$. Crochet was basically league minimum last season and this season. If all goes well, he’ll earn roughly $10M next season perhaps? Compare that to $15M, $20M, $20M. When interested teams like the Phillies and Reds are already near the top of their budgets, that extra $10-15M per year makes a difference in trade value. 

Additionally, Crochet had almost no track record prior to 2024 so in reality the arrow could only go up if he managed to stay healthy in the SP role. I don’t believe that to be the case with Robert. Much of the arguments to holding on to him revolve around the possibility he reverts back to his prior form so if he doesn’t his stock falls further. Different situation imo.

i dont know if i'm with you on the 'arrow up' part. No one in their right mind was going to say Crochet was about to explode and get tons of innings under his belt (again just dating back 365 days from now). Robert meanwhile is the kinda guy that alternates good year/bad year. and if you wait til the deadline then you are alleviating the money concern because his guaranteed $ is not big at that point.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

To be fair, Acuna performed well in MLB in September. In fact, he had a higher fWAR in MLB in 2024 than Luis Robert.

See, you keep doing this.  Pick random stat that supports your biased view of players and ignore all context.  Again, we’re talking about 40 plate appearances with a wOBA nearly 100 points above his xwOBA and as ISO well over 100% above his minor league norms.  But hey, who cares about his struggles in AAA when can the SSS in the majors to override it!

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

False. Money is always a factor. We recently witnessed Cody Bellinger sign a 3 year $80M contract coming off a very good season. After one just ok (but much better than 2024 Robert) season, the Cubs were desperate to dump him just to get rid of his remaining salary (2/$47.5M).

One team cutting costs doesn't make the rest of the free agent market "false" especially when you are trying to compare the two players and contracts in question without actually doing it.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, Fielder Jones said:

i dont know if i'm with you on the 'arrow up' part. No one in their right mind was going to say Crochet was about to explode and get tons of innings under his belt (again just dating back 365 days from now). Robert meanwhile is the kinda guy that alternates good year/bad year. and if you wait til the deadline then you are alleviating the money concern because his guaranteed $ is not big at that point.

Perhaps not a year ago but back in early April just a couple weeks into the season some were saying it

 

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

See, you keep doing this.  Pick random stat that supports your biased view of players and ignore all context.  Again, we’re talking about 40 plate appearances with a wOBA nearly 100 points above his xwOBA and as ISO well over 100% above his minor league norms.  But hey, who cares about his struggles in AAA when can the SSS in the majors to override it!

His career .752 OPS in the minors isn’t far off from Nico Hoerner’s career .779 OPS in the minors. Since we only consider large sample sizes, let’s look at their entire careers. Acuna brings a similar skill set on defense (perhaps even more value because of his versatility) and base stealing as Hoerner. Has Nico Hoerner been a valuable MLB player In your opinion? (Hint, he’s been better than Luis Robert)

Edited Thursday at 07:26 PM by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Worthless asset? Where do you come up with this stuff? You may think Acuna and Baty are worthless but I clearly don’t. I thought that much was obvious from my previous replies but I guess not.

You have repeatedly said Robert has little value and that we must get rid of him soon or else we’ll likely end up with nothing.  And I definitely disagree with you on your valuation of Baty & Acuna.  They would be solid secondary pieces, but neither is a fair headliner for a talent like Robert IMO.

[southsider2k5]

16 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

His career .752 OPS in the minors isn’t far off from Nico Hoerner’s career .779 OPS in the minors. Since we only consider large sample sizes, let’s look at their entire careers. Acuna brings a similar skill set on defense (perhaps even more value because of his versatility) and base stealing as Hoerner. Has Nico Hoerner been a valuable MLB player In your opinion? (Hint, he’s been better than Luis Robert)

I wouldn't have traded MiLB Nico Hoerner for Luis Robert, nor MLB Nico.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

He was #12 on pipeline’s mid season update. I’d be willing to wager he’s top 10 when they update in a couple months. Where does he rank on the recent Baseball America update?

He ranks 8th and they have a 45 FV prospect now.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Right, which is why a guy like Acuna given his age and cheap team control is valuable in today’s game if he can put up a .650-.700 OPS while playing a very good CF/2b and stealing a bunch of bases.

Acuna isn't a very good defensive outfielder at this point.

[Balta1701]

52 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And that is where the ceiling comes into account.  Again, if we don't get that kind of an offer, I am more than content with sitting on him, like we should have done with Cease.

The counter here is health. Dylan Cease made more starts than any other pitcher in baseball from 2021-2023. Luis Robert has had a moderate to major injury of some sort each of the last 4 years.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The counter here is health. Dylan Cease made more starts than any other pitcher in baseball from 2021-2023. Luis Robert has had a moderate to major injury of some sort each of the last 4 years.

The counter here is the dumpster fire state of the franchise.  You need to be adding as many real players as possible to this rebuild.  Mediocrity does nothing.  Now is the time to follow the Rick Hahn example and hold to try to get the payoff.  If it fails, being out mediocrity doesn't upset me.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The counter here is the dumpster fire state of the franchise.  You need to be adding as many real players as possible to this rebuild.  Mediocrity does nothing.  Now is the time to follow the Rick Hahn example and hold to try to get the payoff.  If it fails, being out mediocrity doesn't upset me.

You're right, but losing Robert for nothing also does nothing. 

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

You're right, but losing Robert for nothing also does nothing. 

Is the gamble.  I don't need another Nicky Lopez.  That does nothing for me.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Is the gamble.  I don't need another Nicky Lopez.  That does nothing for me.

Nicky Lopez was being paid $5 million and was clearly there for leadership. That is clearly not the case with someone like Acuna. That comparison is bizarre.

You could say you don't need another Eloy and then tell me why you think that's Acuna's future. Or Colas, whatever. At least make the comparison fundamentally similar. 

[Dick Allen]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The counter here is health. Dylan Cease made more starts than any other pitcher in baseball from 2021-2023. Luis Robert has had a moderate to major injury of some sort each of the last 4 years.

And you were one to say the Sox had to trade him because 2022 was a fluke and he is what he was in 2023. They trade him for mediocrity, no one is as down on Thorpe as you, and he finishes 3rd or 4th in the Cy Young. The White Sox can’t afford to sell low on their better players. This already is the Jan Byrne Exchange rebuild. That took 9 years. We were told it would take 2.

[Dick Allen]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Nicky Lopez was being paid $5 million and was clearly there for leadership. That is clearly not the case with someone like Acuna. That comparison is bizarre.

You could say you don't need another Eloy and then tell me why you think that's Acuna's future. Or Colas, whatever. At least make the comparison fundamentally similar. 

That worked out well.

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

And you were one to say the Sox had to trade him because 2022 was a fluke and he is what he was in 2023. They trade him for mediocrity, no one is as down on Thorpe as you, and he finishes 3rd or 4th in the Cy Young. The White Sox can’t afford to sell low on their better players. This already is the Jan Byrne Exchange rebuild. That took 9 years. We were told it would take 2.

Not even close. I said they wouldn't get good value for him in the market in 2023 because he had a down year and pitching wasn't returning a good value due to a saturated market, the right move was to hold him to the trade deadline and let him have a better first half. 

And yeah, I am pretty down on the return. They should have held him to the trade deadline. He was healthy, the market was bad last offseason, they spent the entire offseason leaking that they'd get a great offer and took a meh deal that hopefully gets them a couple relievers.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

His career .752 OPS in the minors isn’t far off from Nico Hoerner’s career .779 OPS in the minors. Since we only consider large sample sizes, let’s look at their entire careers. Acuna brings a similar skill set on defense (perhaps even more value because of his versatility) and base stealing as Hoerner. Has Nico Hoerner been a valuable MLB player In your opinion? (Hint, he’s been better than Luis Robert)

Your comps in this thread have been wild.

Robert, prior to last year, had accumulated 12 WAR in his previous 367 games (4 years) averaging 5.3 fWAR per 162 games.

Bellinger, prior to last year, had accumulated 6.5 WAR in his previous 425 games (4 years) averaging 2.5 fWAR per 162 games.

Robert is 27. Bellinger is 29.

You can't comprehend how Robert would have more value than Bellinger. Amazing.

For reference: A 5 WAR player is a top 20 player in the MLB. A 2.5 WAR player is in the 100+ range and much more attainable/replaceable.

Edited Thursday at 08:24 PM by Look at Ray Ray Run

[WhiteSox2023]

14 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

That worked out well.

It worked out for the little bum from Naperville that is somehow still making millions in the MLB from stupid teams.