White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Throwing last year out for both, Robert had been twice the player the previous 4 years. He also is 2 years younger.

How are people still arguing their similarities?

The argument was Robert would sign a significantly higher contract than 3/$55M if he were a free agent today. I pointed to Bellinger’s contract from last season as what I would expect Robert would receive on the open market today. Bellinger’s age, production, and injury history a year ago when he signed that contract were very similar to where Robert is at today. The biggest difference is Bellinger was coming off a 4.4 fWAR season while Robert is coming off a 0.5 fWAR season.

Edited Friday at 06:51 PM by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Balta1701]

53 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Throwing last year out for both, Robert had been twice the player the previous 4 years. He also is 2 years younger.

How are people still arguing their similarities?

When 2 guys play the same position, have nearly the same performance over the last 2 years, and one of them is traded for basically salary relief, I see no reason why people can't discuss whether this is a reasonable comp.

Yes, Robert is younger and I'll buy that he has a higher ceiling. He also has an extra year of affordable control. These things push his value up.

BUT - if a team can fill an OF spot by taking on $20 million and trading a 30 million year old reliever as literally the only return, they will not part with much in the way of prospect value. Other teams will learn from that - and this will stretch into the season. If teams think they can fill roles without paying prospects, they will consistently do so - that's how the starting pitching market shaped up last offseason, and that is a clear statement about this OF market. For $7 million more this season (plus tax bill) the Yankees got a guy who has matched Robert's performance the last 2 years, who is also a lefty and thus fits their lineup, in exchange for a 30 year old reliever. If that's market price, will Luis Robert ever return the kind of trade that y'all want?

The only situation that seems to fit that setup is if he's back onto his 7 WAR player pace and fully healthy at the trade deadline, and even then it's iffy - teams will clearly look for other options if available, and teams will still hesitate because of his injury history.

[WestEddy]

52 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Why are we not looking at their entire careers? These two guys are supposedly in the prime of their careers in their late 20s. And if we are picking smaller sample sizes why is last year not the most relevant of all?

Because the player from 6 years ago isn't showing up to spring training. I do believe it's helpful to look back a few years to establish "he's hit in the bigs, before. I do think Robert played injured last year, and is probably closer to the 5 bWAR player than Bellinger is to the 8.9 bWAR player from 2019. 

I kind of see both sides. I wouldn't be pissed if they traded Robert before spring training, but I really think they should try to hold out for a star. The Cubs dumped Bellinger, and the Yankees were there to take advantage. It's a crazy market. 

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Throwing last year out for both, Robert had been twice the player the previous 4 years. He also is 2 years younger.

How are people still arguing their similarities?

And again, these aren't fungible players.  Even if their numbers are "equal" only one of them is a plus defender in a premium position.  The other is a defender in name.

[Timmy U]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And sometimes 45 FV prospects turn into highly productive major leaguers. I’d gladly take 3 of them (all position players) for Robert. Then use those cost savings to sign Ha-seong Kim. I think he’ll cost around $55M same as Robert but for 4 years, not 3, so a lower AAV. He’s been about a 3.3 fWAR per 162 game player and has been far more available to play than Robert over his career. Seems like a Getz player too because he walks a lot, plays terrific defense, and is a plus base runner.

It appears you and I value players differently. First of all, yeah some 45 guys turn into highly productive players. Most don’t. Hence, 45. Plus, the Sox are in Hell. The best way out is to find at least 1 impact bat. That’s why Getz is looking for upside. Braden Montgomery may never be able to hit in the mlb, but if he does, there’s 40 HR power potential. Robert still has that kind of potential too. Ha-seong Kim is an average major league hitter who derives most of his value from playing great defense. Not the kind of guy you build a team around. Also, he plays the same position as one of the Sox top prospects. So, I bet you they aren’t giving him $55 mil. If you trade Robert, that money is going right into Jerry’s pocket. I’d rather see it on the field.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Why are we not looking at their entire careers? These two guys are supposedly in the prime of their careers in their late 20s. And if we are picking smaller sample sizes why is last year not the most relevant of all?

Because their career trajectories have been incredibly different. 

You keep talking about Bellingers MVP season. He had shoulder surgery following a seperation in the playoffs that destroyed his swing. This isnt a secret to anyone in baseball. Since then, he was a different player. The new player he became was about half as valuable over a very extended period of time as Luis Robert. 

Robert is a guy who's best year MAY not have happened yet. That's his trajectory.

Bellinger is a guy who's best years were undoubtedly behind him.

This is why these two have never made sense. It doesn't means Robert and bellinger won't be equally valuable over the next couple years but it's more likely that Robert is more valuable.

Edited Friday at 08:46 PM by Look at Ray Ray Run

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

25 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Because their career trajectories have been incredibly different. 

You keep talking about Bellingers MVP season. He had shoulder surgery following a seperation in the playoffs that destroyed his swing. This isnt a secret to anyone in baseball. Since then, he was a different player. The new player he became was about half as valuable over a very extended period of time as Luis Robert. 

Robert is a guy who's best year MAY not have happened yet. That's his trajectory.

Bellinger is a guy who's best years were undoubtedly behind him.

This is why these two have never made sense. It doesn't means Robert and bellinger won't be equally valuable over the next couple years but it's more likely that Robert is more valuable.

So Robert’s trajectory is unaltered by his 2024 injury and performance (or lack thereof)? Seems convenient and foolish imo.

And again, fine throw out 2019, Bellinger finished 10th in MVP voting and was a 4.4 fWAR player in 2023 after the injury you keep focusing on. Robert has only had one season better than that…

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

When 2 guys play the same position, have nearly the same performance over the last 2 years, and one of them is traded for basically salary relief, I see no reason why people can't discuss whether this is a reasonable comp.

Yes, Robert is younger and I'll buy that he has a higher ceiling. He also has an extra year of affordable control. These things push his value up.

BUT - if a team can fill an OF spot by taking on $20 million and trading a 30 million year old reliever as literally the only return, they will not part with much in the way of prospect value. Other teams will learn from that - and this will stretch into the season. If teams think they can fill roles without paying prospects, they will consistently do so - that's how the starting pitching market shaped up last offseason, and that is a clear statement about this OF market. For $7 million more this season (plus tax bill) the Yankees got a guy who has matched Robert's performance the last 2 years, who is also a lefty and thus fits their lineup, in exchange for a 30 year old reliever. If that's market price, will Luis Robert ever return the kind of trade that y'all want?

The only situation that seems to fit that setup is if he's back onto his 7 WAR player pace and fully healthy at the trade deadline, and even then it's iffy - teams will clearly look for other options if available, and teams will still hesitate because of his injury history.

Here's the list of the guys who have accumulated 12.5 WAR as OF'ers since Luis Robert entered the league:

and CF'ers specifically:

Robert is the 2nd youngest name on the list, and on a rate basis he's the 4th best.

Lastly, here's Cody's company over the same window (since Robert debut):

And I'm back to square one with having no idea how anyone can compare these two players from a value perspective. Very basic analysis.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

36 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Here's the list of the guys who have accumulated 12.5 WAR as OF'ers since Luis Robert entered the league:

and CF'ers specifically:

Robert is the 2nd youngest name on the list, and on a rate basis he's the 4th best.

Lastly, here's Cody's company over the same window (since Robert debut):

And I'm back to square one with having no idea how anyone can compare these two players from a value perspective. Very basic analysis.

I’m not sure what this proves? Is a 3.8 fWAR differential over 4.5 seasons really that significant? Hell, Bellinger could very well close that after this season if Robert posts another 0.5 fWAR season. I mean, Cedric Mullins has a higher fWAR over the same span lol

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

And giving a player props for rate stats when he misses 35% of a season on average is nice and all but I think teams actually like it when guys are available to play rather than on and off the IL every couple months.

[southsider2k5]

45 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

And I'm back to square one with having no idea how anyone can compare these two players from a value perspective. Very basic analysis.

I didn't expect this one to be controversial, but here we are.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I didn't expect this one to be controversial, but here we are.

Well, I’m looking at this list and see that Bryan Reynolds has a higher fWAR than Robert. This is a guy that signed a 8/$107M contract about a year and a half ago when he was 28 years old. Mind you, it bought out two arbitration years so let’s say it was really a 6/$85M extension (~$14M AAV). Seems pretty cheap for a guy ahead of Robert on this list. “Oh but his rate stats suck by comparison.” Ok but a track record of being available to actually play matters in the free agent market.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Well, I’m looking at this list and see that Bryan Reynolds has a higher fWAR than Robert. This is a guy that signed a 8/$107M contract about a year and a half ago when he was 28 years old. Mind you, it bought out two arbitration years so let’s say it was really a 6/$85M extension (~$14M AAV). Seems pretty cheap for a guy ahead of Robert on this list. “Oh but his rate stats suck by comparison.” Ok but a track record of being available to actually play matters in the free agent market.

That is a WAY under market extension.  That is NOT a free agent contract by definition.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Oh, here’s maybe the best comp of all: Byron Buxton. Better than Robert on both a counting and rate basis. Signed a contract for 7/$100M three years ago. Now, I’ll give you inflation makes that $100M number probably closer to $120M in today’s dollars. But even inflation adjusted, that’s ~$17M AAV. Robert is making ~$18M AAV over the next three seasons. Again, there’s surplus value there because he’s locked up for 3 seasons instead of the 7 that Buxton is but geez I don’t think it’s as big as many are portraying it to be.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

No I will not and I have no interest in this. It's a baseball discussion, I'm discussing baseball. Some interesting points are made here, including:

Bellinger's performance is way closer to Robert's than I thought

Bellinger's return was really bad

Robert's defense is still strong so even without his offensive performance in 2024 he wasn't awful, but that was relying entirely on defense

Some people still believe that "protection in a lineup" is a key factor in players' performance

The prospects on the Mets are being looked down upon more than I would have thought for 1 year of performance. 

This is the point of discussion. My level of sarcasm here has been "Yeah but Robert gets hurt even in the seasons people are pointing to." What exactly offends you so much about the idea that people have different levels of hope for Robert than you do? 

What offends me is you thinking Robert is suddenly a sub 1 win player because “he lost the tiniest amount of athleticism”.  Like is that a real take or are you just looking for an outlet to unleash more negativity?  Because if it’s the former, it’s one of the more laughable takes I have seen on this board, up there with “we should move Timmy to catcher.”

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

…waiting for the replies that Buxton is also a terrible comparison…

[Timmy U]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

…waiting for the replies that Buxton is also a terrible comparison…

I think it is a great comparison… in that I would take Buxton OR Robert over 3 45 prospects and Fletcher playing cf in Chicago.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I think it is a great comparison… in that I would take Buxton OR Robert over 3 45 prospects and Fletcher playing cf in Chicago.

lol, I would too but what’s the point of having a guy like Robert on the team when they’re going to lose 100+ games the next two seasons anyways? 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Why are we not looking at their entire careers? These two guys are supposedly in the prime of their careers in their late 20s. And if we are picking smaller sample sizes why is last year not the most relevant of all?

It fucking blows my mind that you are pretending players aren’t capable of having a bad year.  The dude you are desperately trying to hype up as Robert’s equal put up -1.0 fWAR in 2021.  He’s averaged 2.7 fWAR per season since then.  There are endless examples like this.  Again, context matters and if can’t see the obvious reasons why Robert may have underperformed last year then it’s clear to me you are looking for reasons to hate on him.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

It appears the Astros are still planning to compete. Their outfield is complete trash right now.

Give me Smith + Leon + Whitcomb and I’m calling it a day.

[Balta1701]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What offends me is you thinking Robert is suddenly a sub 1 win player because “he lost the tiniest amount of athleticism”.  Like is that a real take or are you just looking for an outlet to unleash more negativity?  Because if it’s the former, it’s one of the more laughable takes I have seen on this board, up there with “we should move Timmy to catcher.”

He's suddenly a sub 1 win player because...he put up a sub 1 win season. 'm sorry this is personally offensive to you, but he was worth 0.5 fWAR last year and played 2/3 of a season. You can look at fangraphs yourself, I'm not making that up. And no, I don't believe a "lack of protection" makes anywhere near that much difference. Robert put up much better numbers with little protection in 2023, most of the time that year I was stunned people pitched to him. With all the literature on how "no protection doesn't matter except a tiny bit", it doesn't turn him into a 0.5 fWAR player.

Is he that for the future? I'm not sure, with his injury history it is possible, and you cannot say it's impossible to believe Robert could only put up a 0.5 fWAR season when he just did. Can you tell me how Robert put up a 0.5 fWAR season last year and why it won't happen again? If that happens, and the White Sox don't trade him, then either 2025 or 2026 he leaves with his option not picked up, and that's the situation right now.

In terms of the trade market, if you are asking for super high level prospects for that player, I wouldn't give it up and you'd hate it if the White Sox did that move. Instead, you would do exactly what the Yankees did - find a player who is also up and down, but who is available for a 30 year old reliever. 

As I said in my last post, what you have to hope for is recovery, fully. However, if teams can find options who are available for a 30 year old reliever and cash, they aren't going to pay a high prospect price for a guy like Robert unless he can clearly establish he's back onto an all star, MVP level pace. And even then, his injury history is going to weigh on the offers you get for him.

If the best you can do for him right now is a 30 year old reliever, then yes hold onto him. If you could get an offer like the hypothetical Mets one we were talking about yesterday, taking that makes the White Sox deeper and removes a lot of downside risk on Robert.

[WhiteSox2023]

12 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

It appears the Astros are still planning to compete. Their outfield is complete trash right now.

Give me Smith + Leon + Whitcomb and I’m calling it a day.

Good god is it bad.  I just looked at it.  Can’t believe there’s an outfield out there that’s worse than the Sox.

Doubt you are getting even Smith alone for Robert.  They want him as their long-term solution at 3B.  But it’s probably reasonable.

Edited Friday at 10:52 PM by WhiteSox2023

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

So Robert’s trajectory is unaltered by his 2024 injury and performance (or lack thereof)? Seems convenient and foolish imo.

And again, fine throw out 2019, Bellinger finished 10th in MVP voting and was a 4.4 fWAR player in 2023 after the injury you keep focusing on. Robert has only had one season better than that…

It’s amazing how many ways you can try to spin this thing.  From 2020 to 2023, Robert put up 12.0 fWAR to Bellinger’s 6.5.  He was nearly 2x more productive than Bellinger despite 10% less plate appearances.  And even in your beloved “Bellinger was 10th in NL MVP voting” season Robert outperformed him by half a win.  Full stop, Robert has been the better player since arriving in the majors until last year.  I don’t even know what you’re arguing at this point because your story doesn’t hold without massive levels of spin.

If you want to assume 2024 is the new version of Robert moving forward, then I’m not sure there is anything to debate.  I believe both you and Balta both did this same garbage with Cease coming off his 2023 season and those pessimistic takes were both quickly proven wrong last year.  I strongly believe the same will happen with Robert in 2025 and hopefully Getz doesn’t overreact to a single bad season and sell low for a bunch of crap that won’t move the needle.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

15 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Good god is it bad.  I just looked at it.  Can’t believe there’s an outfield out there that’s worse than the Sox.

Doubt you are getting even Smith alone for Robert.  They want him as their long-term solution at 3B.  But it’s probably reasonable.

I think the Astros likely say no to that deal as well but that’s where I’d start if I’m Getz. Astros are still in win now mode after signing Walker and pulled Valdez off the trade market.

[SoxBlanco]

Just for fun, I think everyone should predict Robert’s fWAR for the upcoming season. No ban bets. No monetary bets. Just a fun prediction so that we can see who is closest. Obviously everyone is welcome to predict, but I’m curious to hear from @JUSTgottaBELIEVE, @Chicago White Sox, @Balta1701, @southsider2k5, and @Look at Ray Ray Run.

It’s definitely a tough thing to predict, given his injury history, inconsistency, and the unknown of which team or teams he will play for, but that’s what will make it fun. Who wants to go first?