White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Right, which is why a guy like Acuna given his age and cheap team control is valuable in today’s game if he can put up a .650-.700 OPS while playing a very good CF/2b and stealing a bunch of bases.

There's not a lot of guys in the game that get to run 650 OPS' out there year after year, and I misread this the first time so take back the defense comment but I don't think he's a good enough defender to run 650's over and over again, and I have a hard time seeing him get to 700 OPS' in the bigs.

[southsider2k5]

39 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Nicky Lopez was being paid $5 million and was clearly there for leadership. That is clearly not the case with someone like Acuna. That comparison is bizarre.

You could say you don't need another Eloy and then tell me why you think that's Acuna's future. Or Colas, whatever. At least make the comparison fundamentally similar. 

When Acuna was being pitched as the next Sox utility guy, that's why.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Your comps in this thread have been wild.

Robert, prior to last year, had accumulated 12 WAR in his previous 367 games (4 years) averaging 5.3 fWAR per 162 games.

Bellinger, prior to last year, had accumulated 6.5 WAR in his previous 425 games (4 years) averaging 2.5 fWAR per 162 games.

Robert is 27. Bellinger is 29.

You can't comprehend how Robert would have more value than Bellinger. Amazing.

For reference: A 5 WAR player is a top 20 player in the MLB. A 2.5 WAR player is in the 100+ range and much more attainable/replaceable.

No, not wild at all…

When Bellinger signed his 3/$80M deal one year ago he was 28 years old and had been a ~4 fWAR per 162 game guy over his career. His deal was market rate because god knows he fully tested the free agent market.

Luis Robert is 27 years old and a ~4.3 fWAR per 162 guy over his career. Age and production doesn’t seem all that different than Bellinger and Bellinger was coming off a far better season in 2023 than Robert is after 2024.

Robert has 3/$55M remaining on his deal. So, yea, if Robert was a free agent today he’d probably land a deal similar to what Bellinger got a year ago +/-. Yes, there is surplus value on Robert’s contract, which is why they won’t have to send money away to get a 30 year old reliever in return, but it’s not overly significant if we’re viewing it from the lens of the Bellinger contract as the baseline. 

And I would argue that the odds of his trade value increasing from here is worse than the odds of his value decreasing. He can’t just be a 3 WAR type of guy (aka Bellinger type of production) to see his trade value increase over the next 6-12 months. He needs to be a 5 WAR guy and, quite frankly, I don’t like those odds. At least today, some people including many on this board think he’s the 5 WAR guy that’s going to stay healthy for 140 games like he did in 2023. Good luck with that.

Edited Thursday at 10:21 PM by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

There's not a lot of guys in the game that get to run 650 OPS' out there year after year, and I misread this the first time so take back the defense comment but I don't think he's a good enough defender to run 650's over and over again, and I have a hard time seeing him get to 700 OPS' in the bigs.

Acuna is definitely a better fit at 2b because everything I’ve read and seen is that he’d be a plus defender there. He’s still learning CF so hard to say with certainty there. But here’s a list of 2b with sub .700 OPS last year that were still 2+ fWAR guys and top 10 at their position overall: Semien, Jimenez, Turang.

Semien was just a tick under .700 but the second highest rated 2b last season. Gimenez and Turang were closer to that .650 mark.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He ranks 8th and they have a 45 FV prospect now.

Ok, so still a top 10 Mets prospect like I suspected. Also, isn’t BA generally tougher with their FV ratings compared to pipeline?

[southsider2k5]

22 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

No, not wild at all…

When Bellinger signed his 3/$80M deal one year ago he was 28 years old and had been a ~4 fWAR per 162 game guy over his career. His deal was market rate because god knows he fully tested the free agent market.

Luis Robert is 27 years old and a ~4.3 per 162 guy over his career. Age and production doesn’t seem all that different than Bellinger and Bellinger was coming off a far better season in 2023 than Robert is after 2024.

Robert has 3/$55M remaining on his deal. So, yea, if Robert was a free agent today he’d probably land a deal similar to what Bellinger got a year ago +/-. Yes, there is surplus value on Robert’s contract, which is why they won’t have to send money away to get a 30 year old reliever in return, but it’s not overly significant if we’re viewing it from the lens of the Bellinger contract as the baseline. 

And I would argue that the odds of his trade value increasing from here is worse than the odds of his value decreasing. He can’t just be a 3 WAR type of guy (aka Bellinger type of production) to see his trade value increase over the next 6-12 months. He needs to be a 5 WAR guy and, quite frankly, I don’t like those odds. At least today, some people including many on this board think he’s the 5 WAR guy that’s going to stay healthy for 140 games like he did in 2023. Good luck with that.

But WE are not.  The comp doesn't really work.

[Texsox]

Getz may have helped himself by showing he's patient and willing to wait for the right deal. 

One advantage of waiting is the prospects we get are undoubtedly getting a better development experience whenever they are. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

9 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

But WE are not.  The comp doesn't really work.

It actually does based on age, injury history, and past production. Find me a better comp in free agency today or over the last couple years.

Edited Thursday at 10:24 PM by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

It actually does based on age and past production. Find me a better comp in free agency today or over the last couple years.

That's just it, they aren't in the same league, which is why a comp doesn't work.  They are completely different players off paper.  Even with his injuries, Luis Robert is a top quint-tile CF.  Bellinger is maybe a CF if your other choice is Judge.  In general we are talking about a WAY lower ceiling, both offensively and defensively since last decade.  Peak Robert is MVP worthy, Belly being at his best is more like ASG worthy.  It's about more than WAR and age.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

That's just it, they aren't in the same league, which is why a comp doesn't work.  They are completely different players off paper.  Even with his injuries, Luis Robert is a top quint-tile CF.  Bellinger is maybe a CF if your other choice is Judge.  In general we are talking about a WAY lower ceiling, both offensively and defensively since last decade.  Peak Robert is MVP worthy, Belly being at his best is more like ASG worthy.  It's about more than WAR and age.

And yet Bellinger literally won an MVP lol

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And yet Bellinger literally won an MVP lol

So your claim is now that Bellinger is an MVP worthy player these days, and if you are equating him with Robert, I would hope you understand why the Sox should be looking for more than Acuna and Baty as a return for him.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So your claim is now that Bellinger is an MVP worthy player these days, and if you are equating him with Robert, I would hope you understand why the Sox should be looking for more than Acuna and Baty as a return for him.

Bellinger as a free agent one year ago was coming off a season in which he won a silver slugger and finished 10th in MVP voting. In other words, he was coming off the same type of season as Robert’s career year in 2023. Yet, you’re telling me Robert today has significantly more upside than Bellinger last winter the same winter he signed a 3/$80M deal and was coming off a season comparable to 2023 Robert. 🤷‍♂️ 

Edited Thursday at 10:39 PM by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Bellinger as a free agent one year ago was coming off a season in which he won a silver slugger and finished 10th in MVP voting. In other words, he was coming off the same type of season as Robert’s career year in 2023. Yet, you’re telling me Robert today has significantly more upside than Bellinger last winter the same winter he signed a 3/$80M deal. 🤷‍♂️ 

This is really, really, really simple.  Even if you want to equate them as equals, which the market very CLEARLY does not, Luis Robert as a top flight defensive CF is worth more than Cody Bellinger and his negative CF and RF defensive ratings. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Let me spell this out in plain English since you seem to be having a hard time following. If Robert was a free agent today, do you think he would receive a contract significantly better than 3/$80M?

if yes, my question is why?

if no, you think that sounds about right then he has ~$25M in surplus value over his remaining three years of control. And that’s just not super valuable. Effectively equal to one 50/55 FV prospect.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Let me spell this out in plain English since you seem to be having a hard time following. If Robert was a free agent today, do you think he would receive a contract significantly better than 3/$80M?

if yes, my question is why?

if no, you think that sounds about right then he has ~$25M in surplus value over his remaining three years of control. And that’s just not super valuable. Effectively equal to one 50/55 FV prospect.

Yes.  Easily.  Teams overpay all of the time.  Tyler freaking O'Neill just got 3/50.  Mike Soroka just got $9 million for this season.  The obligation to Luis Robert is $15 million, with two options for $20 million each.  That is nothing in 2024.  He's a $100 million player today on the current ridiculous free agent market.

Cody Bellinger as a regularly injured 1B who plays a bad OF getting 3/80 only serves to back that up.  Even looking at Fangraphs a 4.0 fWAR was the 4th best CF season last year in MLB among qualified CFs.  Cody Bellinger, even with his negative OF defensive ratings, ranked 14th.  Alex Bregman turned down $150 million over six years as an older corner IF, and will almost certainly exceed it on the FA market.  The Willy Adamas deal is another one that comes to mind when a guy is a + hitter and a + defender at a premium position.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

No, not wild at all…

When Bellinger signed his 3/$80M deal one year ago he was 28 years old and had been a ~4 fWAR per 162 game guy over his career. His deal was market rate because god knows he fully tested the free agent market.

Luis Robert is 27 years old and a ~4.3 fWAR per 162 guy over his career. Age and production doesn’t seem all that different than Bellinger and Bellinger was coming off a far better season in 2023 than Robert is after 2024.

Robert has 3/$55M remaining on his deal. So, yea, if Robert was a free agent today he’d probably land a deal similar to what Bellinger got a year ago +/-. Yes, there is surplus value on Robert’s contract, which is why they won’t have to send money away to get a 30 year old reliever in return, but it’s not overly significant if we’re viewing it from the lens of the Bellinger contract as the baseline. 

And I would argue that the odds of his trade value increasing from here is worse than the odds of his value decreasing. He can’t just be a 3 WAR type of guy (aka Bellinger type of production) to see his trade value increase over the next 6-12 months. He needs to be a 5 WAR guy and, quite frankly, I don’t like those odds. At least today, some people including many on this board think he’s the 5 WAR guy that’s going to stay healthy for 140 games like he did in 2023. Good luck with that.

No one was paying Bellinger for his 2019 year pre-shoulder injury when he was a free agent.

He's just a terrible comp in my opinion because their career trajectories are so different.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Yes.  Easily.  Teams overpay all of the time.  Tyler freaking O'Neill just got 3/50.  Mike Soroka just got $9 million for this season.  The obligation to Luis Robert is $15 million, with two options for $20 million each.  That is nothing in 2024.  He's a $100 million player today on the current ridiculous free agent market.

Cody Bellinger as a regularly injured 1B who plays a bad OF getting 3/80 only serves to back that up.  Even looking at Fangraphs a 4.0 fWAR was the 4th best CF season last year in MLB among qualified CFs.  Cody Bellinger, even with his negative OF defensive ratings, ranked 14th.  Alex Bregman turned down $150 million over six years as an older corner IF, and will almost certainly exceed it on the FA market.  The Willy Adamas deal is another one that comes to mind when a guy is a + hitter and a + defender at a premium position.

Bregman and Adames are awful comps because neither has the extensive injury history that Robert does.

[Quin]

4 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

Did JR exit stage left?

I mean, same for the general manager.

[southsider2k5]

58 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Bregman and Adames are awful comps because neither has the extensive injury history that Robert does.

Sure, and they are $180m and $156+.  So even if Robert comes in under them, it is still way over $80m.

[caulfield12]

We might as well compare him to the value of Victor Robles right now...

But some GM will eventually bet on the dynamic 2020/2023 versions returning, away from the negative influence of the Sox organization. 

That is if they can afford to take on a "value added" salary.

[Whisox05]

Kepler to Phillies

[Timmy U]

5 minutes ago, Whisox05 said:

Kepler to Phillies

No way the Sox were giving him $10 mil for 1 season. Glad to get him out of the division cuz he mostly mudered us. Now the Sox can relax for a few months before lottery gift Walker Jenkins starts murdering them.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure, and they are $180m and $156+.  So even if Robert comes in under them, it is still way over $80m.

Nah, not with his injury history and shitty 2024 season.

[GreenSox]

If Acuna and Baty is the type of offer out there, that is an easy no.  Baty has had 3 bitter cups of coffee.  Sure, the Sox should take a chance on players like Baty- but for the right price.  He's who you trade Joe Borchard for; or today, maybe Vaughn (although Baty's numbers suggest that Sheets would have been a more even trade).   If those are the best, then  there really isn't much risk to holding Robert.  And wasn't it a year ago when some called Robert a budding superstar and that our own GM said that he wanted to build around Robert?  

That said, it doesn't surprise me if that is the sort of offer:

1) The Bellinger salary dump didn't help the market.  No the comparison isn't really equal:  Bellinger hasn't earned his keep in 4 of the past 5 seasons; Robert has earned his keep in 4 of the last 5.  But last year was a downer coupled with..

2) The sudden and apparently intractable deterioration in several Sox hitters may make other teams leery of Sox hitters, until proven otherwise.  Now every player is an individual it's kind of stupid and superstitious to "Avoid Sox hitters" but teams may be stretched to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Robert should rebound this year.  I think he will.  And if he does, frankly, I'd rather keep him anyway.  We don't have to dump all of our best players.  CF is an important "up the middle position" and our minors aren't exactly loaded with high-end candidates. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

43 minutes ago, Whisox05 said:

Kepler to Phillies

It seems the Phillies have moved on from the idea of trading for Robert