White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert

[Chicago White Sox]

I do wonder if a bigger reason they could be slashing revenue next year beyond the “Jerry is preparing to sell the team” theory is the fact that Chicago Sports Network is not yet being carried by multiple companies (Comcast, YouTube TV, etc.) and therefore revenue will be greatly impacted during this transition year.  In a normal year it would be nearly impossible for the Sox to lose money with a $75M payroll, but perhaps that’s not the case in 2025 because of lower than usual local TV money.

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

It’s just Russian roulette hanging on to him though, if he gets injured yet again in the early season and misses a large chunk of the season yet again, the return for him will be next to nothing.

But if he’s healthy and returns to his 2021 to 2023 form (10.6 fWAR over 311 games or a 5.1 win pace) he’s an incredibly attractive asset.  And honestly, we’re talking about $15M in salary for next year.  We literally just burned $15M+ to the ground last year by acquiring and giving playing time to Maldonado, Lopez, Clevinger, & Brebbia.  Holding onto Robert and betting on a return to form is the best possible way to utilize that money on potential flip candidates even if there is some chance you end up with nothing in the end.

[Kyyle23]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But if he’s healthy and returns to his 2021 to 2023 form (10.6 fWAR over 311 games or a 5.1 win pace) he’s an incredibly attractive asset.  And honestly, we’re talking about $15M in salary for next year.  We literally just burned $15M+ to the ground last year by acquiring and giving playing time to Maldonado, Lopez, Clevinger, & Brebbia.  Holding onto Robert and betting on a return to form is the best possible way to utilize that money on potential flip candidates even if there is some chance you end up with nothing in the end.

I’m not denying if he puts up mvp numbers he is worth more, just saying that this is the White Sox and as such you should expect the constantly injured player to remain constantly injured, and hoping to thread the needle in this sort of a situation rarely works out in our favor 

[ChiSox59]

10 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I’m not denying if he puts up mvp numbers he is worth more, just saying that this is the White Sox and as such you should expect the constantly injured player to remain constantly injured, and hoping to thread the needle in this sort of a situation rarely works out in our favor 

I don't see how trading him for a paltry return works out in the Sox favor either, tho. I don't know what the interest level is in Robert and what types of offers might come together. I could be convinced to trade him this winter. But selling low, when there is minimal downside risk if the offseason offers are poor, and the upside is tremendous, is bad business. I think Getz valuing him as a 2.5-3 WAR player with additional upside and three years of control (with downside protection) is appropriate. 

[sin city sox fan]

His stats are not going to rebound as long as he's with the Sox.   He's the only hitter in our lineup that provides any fear to opposing pitchers.   With no one to protect him, pitchers will only work the corners of his strike zone and don't care if they walk him as no one will drive him home in most cases.   The days of him getting a meatball and driving it 450 feet deep here are offer.   However, he will so it again one day with the Dodgers, Yankees, or anther team stacked 1 thru 9.

[Bob Sacamano]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

It’s just Russian roulette hanging on to him though, if he gets injured yet again in the early season and misses a large chunk of the season yet again, the return for him will be next to nothing.

Dude just played the second most games in a season of his career at 100 games. It’s not “if he gets hurt” it’s a matter of “when.”

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I do wonder if a bigger reason they could be slashing revenue next year beyond the “Jerry is preparing to sell the team” theory is the fact that Chicago Sports Network is not yet being carried by multiple companies (Comcast, YouTube TV, etc.) and therefore revenue will be greatly impacted during this transition year.  In a normal year it would be nearly impossible for the Sox to lose money with a $75M payroll, but perhaps that’s not the case in 2025 because of lower than usual local TV money.

Ding ding

[Kyyle23]

49 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't see how trading him for a paltry return works out in the Sox favor either, tho. I don't know what the interest level is in Robert and what types of offers might come together. I could be convinced to trade him this winter. But selling low, when there is minimal downside risk if the offseason offers are poor, and the upside is tremendous, is bad business. I think Getz valuing him as a 2.5-3 WAR player with additional upside and three years of control (with downside protection) is appropriate. 

I don’t believe much will work out in the Sox favor here.  Robert’s injury history depresses his value whether we recognize his immense talent or not.  I truly hope Getz can fleece someone I just don’t trust it.  

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 hours ago, Paulie4Pres said:

They're not losing money.....

https://www.statista.com/statistics/829581/chicago-white-sox-operating-income/#:~:text=In 2023%2C the operating loss,totaled 40 million U.S. dollars.

[Bob Sacamano]

7 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I don’t believe much will work out in the Sox favor here.  Robert’s injury history depresses his value whether we recognize his immense talent or not.  I truly hope Getz can fleece someone I just don’t trust it.  

Agreed here. No one is going to give them what they want.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

56 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't see how trading him for a paltry return works out in the Sox favor either, tho. I don't know what the interest level is in Robert and what types of offers might come together. I could be convinced to trade him this winter. But selling low, when there is minimal downside risk if the offseason offers are poor, and the upside is tremendous, is bad business. I think Getz valuing him as a 2.5-3 WAR player with additional upside and three years of control (with downside protection) is appropriate. 

You all need to dispel the notion that his upside with the Sox is tremendous. No, it’s not. If we’re playing probabilities, the likelihood of him having a 1-1.5 WAR season in 2025 is more likely imo than 2.5-3. And quite frankly, a 1-2 WAR player making $15-20M per year just isn’t that attractive. I suspect Robert’s trade value is similar to someone like Alex Bohm, maybe even lower because of the injury concerns.

Edited 1 hour ago by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

I’m not denying if he puts up mvp numbers he is worth more, just saying that this is the White Sox and as such you should expect the constantly injured player to remain constantly injured, and hoping to thread the needle in this sort of a situation rarely works out in our favor 

While all that’s true, at some point luck has to be on our side.  And perhaps with a new manager, a new hitting coach, a new hitting coordinator, and an actual analytics department there is a reason to bet on some good luck with Robert.  The physical talent is still there unlike with Moncada who lost a ton of ability post Covid.  And most of Robert’s injuries have been major one off things and not reoccurring soft tissue injuries.  We just need four healthy months of Luis to cash in substantially on that $15M bet.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Put another way, if Getz can get a 50 FV and a 45 FV prospect for Robert, I’m taking it without a doubt.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

While all that’s true, at some point luck has to be on our side.  And perhaps with a new manager, a new hitting coach, a new hitting coordinator, and an actual analytics department there is a reason to bet on some good luck with Robert.  The physical talent is still there unlike with Moncada who lost a ton of ability post Covid.  And most of Robert’s injuries have been major one off things and not reoccurring soft tissue injuries.  We just need four healthy months of Luis to cash in substantially on that $15M bet.

How many times in the last 10 years have we heard “maybe a new hitting/pitching coach will fix player X” and how often has it actually happened?

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You all need to dispel the notion that his upside with the Sox is tremendous. No, it’s not. If we’re playing probabilities, the likelihood of him having a 1-1.5 WAR season in 2025 is more likely imo than 2.5-3. And quite frankly, a 1-2 WAR player making $15-20M per year just isn’t that attractive. I suspect Robert’s trade value is similar to someone like Alex Bohm, maybe even lower because of the injury concerns.

Why?  He’s literally exceeded 1.5 fWAR every single season but last year despite all his injuries.  You seem to be overreacting to a bad 2024 season and ignoring his broader track record which is great player with a bad injury history.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

While all that’s true, at some point luck has to be on our side.  And perhaps with a new manager, a new hitting coach, a new hitting coordinator, and an actual analytics department there is a reason to bet on some good luck with Robert.  The physical talent is still there unlike with Moncada who lost a ton of ability post Covid.  And most of Robert’s injuries have been major one off things and not reoccurring soft tissue injuries.  We just need four healthy months of Luis to cash in substantially on that $15M bet.

Outside of generational talents like Juan Soto, when’s the last time a position player cashed in substantially at the trade deadline?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why?  He’s literally exceeded 1.5 fWAR every single season but last year despite all his injuries.  You seem to be overreacting to a bad 2024 season and ignoring his broader track record which is great player with a bad injury history.

Why? The Sox lineup is horrible so he has no protection. He’s chasing pitches and his strikeout rate is trending up. His defense appears to be trending down. He’s not going to get any faster as he ages combined with the injuries he’s experienced. He looked completely disinterested at times last year playing for the worst team in mlb, I doubt this changes. Just to name a few.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Outside of generational talents like Juan Soto, when’s the last time a position player cashed in substantially at the trade deadline?

Does Turner + Scherzer count?

[Kyyle23]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

While all that’s true, at some point luck has to be on our side.  And perhaps with a new manager, a new hitting coach, a new hitting coordinator, and an actual analytics department there is a reason to bet on some good luck with Robert.  The physical talent is still there unlike with Moncada who lost a ton of ability post Covid.  And most of Robert’s injuries have been major one off things and not reoccurring soft tissue injuries.  We just need four healthy months of Luis to cash in substantially on that $15M bet.

😂here I was thinking you were a long time Sox fan 😉
 

im not arguing with your logic, it is sound.  I’m just saying that I don’t believe your logic will prove out with this team.   The Sox just don’t do the correct things 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Does Turner + Scherzer count?

No, because I’d argue Scherzer carried more trade value in that deal than Trea. Besides, Robert is nowhere near the level of Trea even with a few good months in 2025.

[caulfield12]

“They weren’t exactly killing it in attendance in 2023, a season in which they lost 101 games, but they’re averaging 17,959 fans per game through 74 games, compared to last year’s 21,405, compared to 2022’s 24,704. While 2021’s attendance per game was lower, owing to COVID restrictions coming off of 2020’s fan-less, shortened season, Chicago ranked 14th in the majors in attendance per game and 13th overall, alongside franchises like the Red Sox, Mets, and Phillies. They’ve fallen all the way to 27th now, because they’re horrific in a way most of the people who could buy tickets have never even seen before. At least the ‘62 Mets had the expansion excuse. The White Sox are this way practically on purpose.
…..

The White Sox were a bad team that fans lost interest in, that became a much worse team because of cutting payroll and poor transaction decisions on top of the existing bad things getting worse for them. The 2025 White Sox might be better if for no other reason than it’s difficult to imagine anyone repeating a season this bad, but they might not actually be better, or good, if so. Cutting payroll further, which in some cases not only removes the existing decent players and their upside from the team but also limits how much can be invested in their replacements, isn’t going to solve anything besides making the team unwatchable once more. Which certainly won’t fix these supposed catastrophic revenue drops. Maybe fielding a team that isn’t a punching bag for the rest of the league would help, but why would a notably cheap, corner-cutting owner like Jerry Reinsdorf want to try to do something like that when he could instead not?”

https://www.marcnormandin.com/2024/09/16/white-sox-to-cut-payroll-in-2025-after-substantial-losses/

[caulfield12]

29 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You all need to dispel the notion that his upside with the Sox is tremendous. No, it’s not. If we’re playing probabilities, the likelihood of him having a 1-1.5 WAR season in 2025 is more likely imo than 2.5-3. And quite frankly, a 1-2 WAR player making $15-20M per year just isn’t that attractive. I suspect Robert’s trade value is similar to someone like Alex Bohm, maybe even lower because of the injury concerns.

“Of course, if Robert is healthy and playing well, $20 million isn’t a negative. He has not really been either of those things this season, but in the four years before that, he slugged .500 and posted a 125 OPS+, and he doesn’t give away runs with his glove. He’s someone who would be absolutely worth the risk for another team to acquire, and the White Sox might even get someone interesting back for it. Of course, he’ll also be just 27 next year, so he’s the player you’d most want to keep if you were actually interested in rebuilding in a timely fashion while giving the fans you do still have something to watch that wasn’t outright embarrassing.”

https://www.marcnormandin.com/2024/09/16/white-sox-to-cut-payroll-in-2025-after-substantial-losses/

[Timmy U]

48 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Put another way, if Getz can get a 50 FV and a 45 FV prospect for Robert, I’m taking it without a doubt.

Why? You don't think they can draft a 50 and a 45 in like the 3rd and 4th round this year? With the slashing of minor league rosters, guys like that are getting less and less valuable. Might as well stick and hope to win the lottery with Robert as to acquire some org filler in a system that is already awash in 45/50 type guys.

[JoeC]

15 hours ago, kitekrazy said:

Who is going to play CF and good enough to cover for the ineptness of the corner players.

Don't ask questions for which you don't want answers.

[Snopek]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

While all that’s true, at some point luck has to be on our side.

I think we cashed in all our luck in 2005.