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White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert


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  On 1/30/2025 at 6:10 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

They reportedly lost $28M in 2023 with a payroll about $100M more expensive than where they’re at right now. So if everything else remained the same outside of payroll they would stand to make ~$70M in 2025.

BUT…they also lowered ticket prices this season, attendance will be down significantly compared to 2023, fixed costs presumably have increased slightly since then due to inflation, and presumably the tv revenue is down significantly since 2023. So, yea, I don’t know if a “huge” profit is a sure thing even with a payroll in the mid 60s.

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however, the #1 things driving growth for most teams are no longer local boosts, they are increased revenue from streaming services, deals with service providers, national TV deals, and so forth. Those are hard to know, but they are solid league-wide revenue boosters.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 5:18 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Remember when you argued ad nauseam last month about how terrific Robert’s contract was and all the value it had? Lol

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You were literally suggesting we commit $80M+ to Santander plus give up the top pick of the 2nd round and $500k in international slot because of how bad you viewed the OF market next year.  Sounds like with any form of rebound, Robert should be an incredibly value trade chip a year from now.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 6:43 PM, Balta1701 said:

That's also not how it works. The board might be able to complain, but they cannot force that to happen. The only person who can decide that, per everything we understand about the rules of the White Sox ownership, is Jerry Reinsdorf.

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You don’t think Jerry is pushing for the organization to operate profitably again on annual basis? Come on man, he’s leading the charge…

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  On 1/30/2025 at 5:45 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And if Jerry is really that hard up for cash, the decision to trade him before the season might not be a baseball decision alone but one made just to move the contract off the books.

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There is zero chance we are that hard up for cash with a $60 payroll.  Don’t get me wrong, I get the feeling Jerry is going cheaper than usual to offset any losses he incurred last year, but zero reason to believe he’d have to move additional salary to get there.  If they are desperate to move Robert, it’s because they’re worried he won’t return much come July.  I don’t buy that either, but it’s at least theoretically possible.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 5:56 PM, Balta1701 said:

Based on the Forbes numbers, the franchise value should have increased by $450 million since 2019, basically a return of 30%. If specific board members are expecting improved investment returns, the simple answer is to sell their investment. 

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Valuation has nothing to do with past operating earnings / losses.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 6:47 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

You were literally suggesting we commit $80M+ to Santander plus give up the top pick of the 2nd round and $500k in international slot because of how bad you viewed the OF market next year.  Sounds like with any form of rebound, Robert should be an incredibly value trade chip a year from now.

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Santander stays on the field, Robert doesn’t. Availability is important. Robert’s trade value would be much higher if he played as much as Santander.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 6:45 PM, Balta1701 said:

however, the #1 things driving growth for most teams are no longer local boosts, they are increased revenue from streaming services, deals with service providers, national TV deals, and so forth. Those are hard to know, but they are solid league-wide revenue boosters.

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^and you think that’s gone well for the White Sox over the past year?

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  On 1/30/2025 at 6:52 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Santander stays on the field, Robert doesn’t. Availability is important. Robert’s trade value would be much higher if he played as much as Santander.

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That’s true, but I said if he rebounds.  Obviously that’s a big wild card, but the point is there is zero reason to dump him now when the market conditions will be incredibly favorable 12 months from now.  He’s an easy hold IMO because you simply buy him out or more likely dump him for pennies at the deadline.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 6:59 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

That’s true, but I said if he rebounds.  Obviously that’s a big wild card, but the point is there is zero reason to dump him now when the market conditions will be incredibly favorable 12 months from now.  He’s an easy hold IMO because you simply buy him out or more likely dump him for pennies at the deadline.

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A month ago I was arguing Acuna and Baty was a fair return for Robert imo (to which I received much criticism). If you can’t even get Arroyo without eating cash then yea his trade value is already near pennies and might as well hold on to him.

Just now, I was simply pointing out that trading him before the season starts might not be a baseball decision but a business decision instead. I don’t think anyone here can completely rule that out.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 6:47 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

You were literally suggesting we commit $80M+ to Santander plus give up the top pick of the 2nd round and $500k in international slot because of how bad you viewed the OF market next year.  Sounds like with any form of rebound, Robert should be an incredibly value trade chip a year from now.

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Oops.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 7:02 PM, Balta1701 said:

Yes I think the $85 million per year new MLB deal with Apple TV went very well for the White Sox. Free moneys.

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$85M across 30 teams pales in comparison to the ass kicking they’re taking by airing CHSN OTA and not having deals in place with the #1 streaming live tv provider YouTube Tv or comcast, etc. I’m very curious to see how this has impacted the bottom line but I bet it ain’t pretty.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 6:33 PM, ptatc said:

And that changes the current situation how? Placing blame does nothing to help the team.

You can kick, scream and yell about what they've done or didn't do. This changes nothing about what tye best path to success is going forward.

Blame who you want, then figure out how to go forward to improve the team.

Posting my favorite paraphrased quote again.

Those who live in the past suffer depression.

Those who live in the future suffer anxiety.

Only those who love in the present are truly in the right frame of mind.

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The only way out for them is to sell, or completely change how they operate. None of which seems likely.

Jerry has driven this franchise into the ground and they have no one to blame but themselves. Ignoring those hard realities accomplishes nothing.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 7:06 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

$85M across 30 teams pales in comparison to the ass kicking they’re taking by airing CHSN OTA and not having deals in place with the #1 streaming live tv provider YouTube Tv or comcast, etc. I’m very curious to see how this has impacted the bottom line but I bet it ain’t pretty.

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Divided by 30 teams, that covers Tauchman and Bryse Wilson for the White Sox.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 7:06 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

$85M across 30 teams pales in comparison to the ass kicking they’re taking by airing CHSN OTA and not having deals in place with the #1 streaming live tv provider YouTube Tv or comcast, etc. I’m very curious to see how this has impacted the bottom line but I bet it ain’t pretty.

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You're talking a fall of let's say $70 million per year to somewhere in the vicinity of $3-5 million for local.  No way in hell it's over $10 million right now.

Bloodbath. 

Hahn/Boyer made a massive miscalculation going for a short term five year deal last time by foolishly believing they'd be able to negotiate it even higher around 2022-2023 when they should have been "in the midst of their multiple parades/championship banner hangings."

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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/each-teams-local-broadcasting-arrangement.html
 

This article says the franchise made $60M  in revenue from their RSN in 2022. I think they’re lucky if they’re getting even 1/4 of that in 2025. The only major carrier I know with a deal in place is direct tv. No one is paying $20/month to subscribe directly to watch crappy teams play especially when they can watch the same crappy teams with a $20 antenna.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 7:13 PM, caulfield12 said:

You're talking a fall of let's say $70 million per year to somewhere in the vicinity of $3-5 million for local.  No way in hell it's over $10 million right now.

Bloodbath. 

Hahn/Boyer made a massive miscalculation going for a short term five year deal last time by foolishly believing they'd be able to negotiate it even higher around 2022-2023 when they should have been "in the midst of their multiple parades/championship banner hangings."

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I think that’s about right. It’s likely a $40-50M hit even after accounting for the rise in national tv deals. To my earlier point, anyone thinking they’re making a “huge” profit in 2025 with a mid 60s payroll is mistaken, if I had to guess.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 7:14 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/each-teams-local-broadcasting-arrangement.html
 

This article says the franchise made $60M  in revenue from their RSN in 2022. I think they’re lucky if they’re getting even 1/4 of that in 2025. The only major carrier I know with a deal in place is direct tv. No one is paying $20/month to subscribe directly to watch crappy teams play especially when they can watch the same crappy teams with a $20 antenna.

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Okay off by a bit bit could have sworn it was around $67 million.

Know for a fact the Pads had similar Bally revenues with massive local ratings (in one of the smallest markets ofc) but they are still down in the $10-12-$15 million range going with the MLB-produced broadcasts from all the reporting available on this...

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  On 1/30/2025 at 7:06 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

$85M across 30 teams pales in comparison to the ass kicking they’re taking by airing CHSN OTA and not having deals in place with the #1 streaming live tv provider YouTube Tv or comcast, etc. I’m very curious to see how this has impacted the bottom line but I bet it ain’t pretty.

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I agree.  Not having CHSN on major platforms is likely killing them.  We made a significant amount of money off our previous TV deal and can’t imagine OTA advertising money is coming in anywhere close to that amount.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 7:43 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

I agree.  Not having CHSN on major platforms is likely killing them.  We made a significant amount of money off our previous TV deal and can’t imagine OTA advertising money is coming in anywhere close to that amount.

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It's hard to find clear data, but the 2022 estimate was $60 million from their local tv deal.  I would be surprised if we sit at 10% of that right now.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 8:40 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I do think the Sox would prefer to trade Robert prior to opening day. Jim Bowden said today that Phillies were also involved and Sox have been asking for two top 5 system prospects minimum in return. 

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Considering the Phillies have 3 top 100 prospects, and their #4 prospect is an 18 year old catcher who is probably years away from even qualifying for the MLB pipeline list, this actually seems like a reasonable ask. My guess is that the Phillies would probably like to hold onto their #5 prospect, Mick Abel, who could see big league action this year and who is on their 40 man roster so that part is not a good match, but their number 6 prospect is a 20 year old outfielder taken 27th overall last year in the draft. Catcher Eduardo Tait and outfielder Dante Nori for Robert, I could see the Phillies not scoffing at this.

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  On 1/30/2025 at 8:40 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I do think the Sox would prefer to trade Robert prior to opening day. Jim Bowden said today that Phillies were also involved and Sox have been asking for two top 5 system prospects minimum in return. 

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After the Caba trade, it almost would have to be Crawford right?  I still think the Phillies make tons of sense for Robert

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