White Sox asking for "top prospects" for Robert

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

So you would accept an Iriarte and Zavala type package?

Yes

[Bob Sacamano]

4 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

So you would accept an Iriarte and Zavala type package?

Right now, I think I would.

They absolutely should ask for the moon. Having said that, Robert will be the starting CF on the Sox on opening day.

[WhiteSox2023]

17 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I can think of one: he’s terrible.

Amazing that we have seen Madrigal already with the Sox, saw what he did with the Cubs, then watched his horrible older clone in Nicky Lopez last year, and anyone would still want to see Madrigal back with this team.

It should be pretty obvious at this point that Madrigal’s game doesn’t play in the MLB, just like Lopez’s doesn’t.

[poppysox]

26 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I can think of one: he’s terrible.

Even if that's true there's nothing to lose.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Even if that's true there's nothing to lose.

Play the young guys.

[poppysox]

12 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Play the young guys.

Don't play him if he doesn't earn the spot.  We are a team that can afford to take a chance on these released players.

[WhiteSox2023]

20 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Even if that's true there's nothing to lose.

It is true, and yes there is.  Opportunity cost for a younger and potentially better player receiving the playing time.

Edited Tuesday at 11:25 PM by WhiteSox2023

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, vilehoopster said:

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics"  BABIP is one of a ton of new stats that people use to make this or that point. 

An ERA of 1.23 sounds great, but that means nothing because his BABIP implies he was lucky.  Sorry, not buying that. 

There are so many stats in baseball now, that some stat or another can be use to prove just about any player is bad, great or just lucky. 

So does that five-game BABIP mean the Sox lost the Cease trade?   

Just because you don’t like advanced statistics doesn’t mean they don’t have value or meaning.  BABIP is definitely a stat that can be misused because it’s so dependent on each player’s profile, but the reality is when someone’s BABIP is so far off from a normalized level it’s very clearly luck / SSS driven.  The results you were citing for Thorpe were 100% not sustainable.  Doesn’t mean it was all luck, but clearly he is nowhere near that good of a pitcher.

[ChiSox59]

Robert was brutal in 24, but man has this board soured on him. There really aren't any scenarios short of a long term serious injury where I am not retaining Robert for $20M in 26. 

[southsider2k5]

3 hours ago, poppysox said:

There is no good reason not to pick him up.  

1. He sucks.

2. He's overpaid at any salary.

3. He's not got six years of control or someone who could be flipped at the break.

[southsider2k5]

2 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Amazing that we have seen Madrigal already with the Sox, saw what he did with the Cubs, then watched his horrible older clone in Nicky Lopez last year, and anyone would still want to see Madrigal back with this team.

It should be pretty obvious at this point that Madrigal’s game doesn’t play in the MLB, just like Lopez’s doesn’t.

For the record,  I would rather pay Nicky again than Madrigal. 

[Balta1701]

44 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Robert was brutal in 24, but man has this board soured on him. There really aren't any scenarios short of a long term serious injury where I am not retaining Robert for $20M in 26. 

Just the hypothetical, you have a max payroll of $50 million. Would you hold him in that scenario?

And yeah, serious injury seems entirely possible. 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Just because you don’t like advanced statistics doesn’t mean they don’t have value or meaning.  BABIP is definitely a stat that can be misused because it’s so dependent on each player’s profile, but the reality is when someone’s BABIP is so far off from a normalized level it’s very clearly luck / SSS driven.  The results you were citing for Thorpe were 100% not sustainable.  Doesn’t mean it was all luck, but clearly he is nowhere near that good of a pitcher.

The BABIP being insanely low suggests that those string of starts were dominated by luck.

It’s the other peripherals that suggest he wasn’t good in general last year. It’s the age 46 Jamie Moyer level strikeout rate, the really bad walk rate, and the high fly ball rate that make me say he wasn’t a big league caliber pitcher last year. 

If he wasn’t super lucky but also had dominant starts, you’d say he was super lucky but looked like a big league pitcher. Last year he didn’t. 

[SoCalChiSox]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Robert was brutal in 24, but man has this board soured on him. There really aren't any scenarios short of a long term serious injury where I am not retaining Robert for $20M in 26. 

Unfortunately, there are several scenarios outside of serious injury where Jerry isn't retaining him for 20m.

The most probable scenario triggering the failure to retain him is the one where Jerry  has to....you know....actually cut the check to Robert. 

Edited Wednesday at 02:06 AM by SoCalChiSox

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Right now, I think I would.

They absolutely should ask for the moon. Having said that, Robert will be the starting CF on the Sox on opening day.

Merkin is projecting him as the 2025 Opening Day Sox CFer, fwiw...

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

For the record,  I would rather pay Nicky again than Madrigal. 

Since the alternative seems to be Amaya for now, hard to argue that, but sad nonetheless.

[SoxBlanco]

Why are people so worried about getting nothing for Robert if he gets injured or sucks again? A weak return now is not much different than getting nothing for him. 

Perhaps I should I word it a different way. The difference between a weak return and no return is so much smaller than the difference between a weak return and the return we’d get if he performs well for the first few months of 2025. 

You absolutely take that gamble and hope for the best. If he sucks or gets injured, I won’t lose any sleep over it. But if we trade him now for a weak return and he explodes on a different team, that’s a nightmare scenario. 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

34 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Why are people so worried about getting nothing for Robert if he gets injured or sucks again? A weak return now is not much different than getting nothing for him. 

Perhaps I should I word it a different way. The difference between a weak return and no return is so much smaller than the difference between a weak return and the return we’d get if he performs well for the first few months of 2025. 

You absolutely take that gamble and hope for the best. If he sucks or gets injured, I won’t lose any sleep over it. But if we trade him now for a weak return and he explodes on a different team, that’s a nightmare scenario. 

It's the Cease scenario all over again. We the fans see him as 2023 Robert, but the rest of the league sees him across his entire MLB career. He's arguably a slightly overpaid injury-prone player. Any team willing to trade for him is going to believe they have what it takes to keep him on the field and he hasn't been able to do that at all.

[Balta1701]

34 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Why are people so worried about getting nothing for Robert if he gets injured or sucks again? A weak return now is not much different than getting nothing for him. 

Perhaps I should I word it a different way. The difference between a weak return and no return is so much smaller than the difference between a weak return and the return we’d get if he performs well for the first few months of 2025. 

You absolutely take that gamble and hope for the best. If he sucks or gets injured, I won’t lose any sleep over it. But if we trade him now for a weak return and he explodes on a different team, that’s a nightmare scenario. 

Let’s play along with this, say Robert has another all star first half. Are teams going to be that confident in his performance and health that they will give up a strong package at the deadline? Or even next offseason? I would think any team would view him as a huge risk for the next year+, maybe longer. 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Let’s play along with this, say Robert has another all star first half. Are teams going to be that confident in his performance and health that they will give up a strong package at the deadline? Or even next offseason? I would think any team would view him as a huge risk for the next year+, maybe longer. 

But the Dodgers took that similar chance with Glasnow, even though everyone was well aware of the attendant risks.

A decent discount is already automatically implied for any acquiring team, or they'll be stuck with him for at least half of 2025, if not longer.

[greg775]

9 hours ago, poppysox said:

There is no good reason not to pick him up.  

I wouldn't mind welcoming him back considering second basemen are a dime a dozen and he was one of our top prospects. Give him his final shot with the woebegone Sox.

[SoxBlanco]

7 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Let’s play along with this, say Robert has another all star first half. Are teams going to be that confident in his performance and health that they will give up a strong package at the deadline? Or even next offseason? I would think any team would view him as a huge risk for the next year+, maybe longer. 

I do believe teams would give up a strong package at the deadline if Robert has an all-star level first half. 

[ChiSox59]

12 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Just the hypothetical, you have a max payroll of $50 million. Would you hold him in that scenario?

And yeah, serious injury seems entirely possible. 

Sure.  A serious injury is entirely possible for any player.

$50M isn't the max payroll.  So I don't really care to play those hypothetical games, but yes, I would.  Because he is one asset that is a monster first half away from having major value (in 25, but also 26).  The guy has 5-7 WAR ceiling, and he's actually done it. 

[Chick Mercedes]

15 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Amazing that we have seen Madrigal already with the Sox, saw what he did with the Cubs, then watched his horrible older clone in Nicky Lopez last year, and anyone would still want to see Madrigal back with this team.

It should be pretty obvious at this point that Madrigal’s game doesn’t play in the MLB, just like Lopez’s doesn’t.

Don’t we even have Japanese ‘Madrigal’ now in the system? Of course. We want all the Madrigals.

[Chick Mercedes]

13 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Robert was brutal in 24, but man has this board soured on him. There really aren't any scenarios short of a long term serious injury where I am not retaining Robert for $20M in 26. 

Question is… but why?