2024-25 Offseason Plan Thread

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Snopek said:

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s awesome how guys like Acuna, Soto, Carroll, Merrill, etc became stars almost instantly.

But man, that has completely warped our expectations and timelines of all other prospects.

Exactly, patience is needed.  And I won’t sugar coat it, Vargas legit looked bad when I watched him last year and the Statcast data backs that up.  But at one point, this dude was considered a serious prospect and he put up very good numbers in AAA last year.  It would be absolutely nuts to cut bait on him 157 plate appearances into his tenure with us after our scouts highlighted him as a kid the front office should pursue.  And to do so to give a different post hype prospect an opportunity is the definition of insanity.

[Lip Man 1]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/white-sox/2024/12/07/white-sox-could-be-news-makers-at-winter-meetings

[Middle Buffalo]

When I look at the money being spent on FA, I’m more and more convinced the Sox will never compete again.

We’re destined for constant rebuilds. I don’t see the Sox ever building a sustainable winning team. We’d have to have a billionaire owner who thinks of the team as a toy, not a real estate investment.

The only hope is they get lucky every so often with a young roster that puts it all together at one time like they did in 2005. 

[PaleAleSox]

18 minutes ago, Middle Buffalo said:

When I look at the money being spent on FA, I’m more and more convinced the Sox will never compete again.

We’re destined for constant rebuilds. I don’t see the Sox ever building a sustainable winning team. We’d have to have a billionaire owner who thinks of the team as a toy, not a real estate investment.

The only hope is they get lucky every so often with a young roster that puts it all together at one time like they did in 2005. 

Eh the Sox could compete again if they went the Rays/Cleveland/Brewers route and actually developed guys and then made strategic trades from a good farm system. Sadly the Sox, thus far, have picked neither lane.

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said:

Eh the Sox could compete again if they went the Rays/Cleveland/Brewers route and actually developed guys and then made strategic trades from a good farm system. Sadly the Sox, thus far, have picked neither lane.

Like Tobias Myers, who went from AAA/AA garbage/filler at Charlotte to starting important playoff games for Milwaukee this past October.

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said:

Eh the Sox could compete again if they went the Rays/Cleveland/Brewers route and actually developed guys and then made strategic trades from a good farm system. Sadly the Sox, thus far, have picked neither lane.

Sox need an actual LatAm program for that to ever be an option.  And unfortunately for us, there’s nothing Jerry hates more than spending big money on 27 year olds even it’s proven to offer the highest ROI of any form of talent acquisition.

[caulfield12]

“Looking from afar, I knew this (Milwaukee) was a team that gives guys chances,” Myers said. “They do a really good job with ‘no-name’ guys, just getting them to the big league level and getting some success under their belt.”

 

“On Sept. 14, 2022, Tobias Myers had a rough day on the mound.

Drawing the start for Triple-A Charlotte, the right-hander surrendered two homers and was tagged for six runs in his lone inning of work. In his final outing of the season, Myers was saddled with the loss, dropping his win-loss record to 1-15 and his ERA to 7.82.

Five days later, the White Sox released him.

That outing's two-year anniversary arrived a few weeks ago. But where is Myers now? After thriving in his rookie season as a front-line starter for a first-place club, he is lined up to start a winner-take-all Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series on Thursday night, of course.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/tobias-myers-standout-rookie-season-brewers

Edited December 8 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

Last part of my offeason plan is the bullpen.  I strongly believe the Sox should sign a potential flip candidate to serve as their closer.  Jordan Romano is the guy I’d target, probably around a 1/$5M deal.  Beyond that, I’d take Magdaleno with the 1.01 pick in the Rule 5 draft.  And finally, I’d sign Griffin Canning to a cheap one year deal ($3M or $4M) and let him compete against Nastrini, Bush, & Adams for the #5 spot (with him being the swingman if he loses).

That results in the following bullpen for Opening Day:

• 9th: Romano
• 8th:  Berrora
• 8th:  Ellard*
• 7th: Varland
• 7th:  Wilson
• 6th:  Leasure
• 6th:  Magdaleno*
• LR:  Canning

Obviously still a huge work in progress, but at least most guys have something to offer in the short term and long term.  And ultimately, a lot of these guys will be replaced with minor league SPs who run out of other opportunities.

[Bob Sacamano]

13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Last part of my offeason plan is the bullpen.  I strongly believe the Sox should sign a potential flip candidate to serve as their closer.  Jordan Romano is the guy I’d target, probably around a 1/$5M deal.  Beyond that, I’d take Magdaleno with the 1.01 pick in the Rule 5 draft.  And finally, I’d sign Griffin Canning to a cheap one year deal ($3M or $4M) and let him compete against Nastrini, Bush, & Adams for the #5 spot (with him being the swingman if he loses).

That results in the following bullpen for Opening Day:

• 9th: Romano
• 8th:  Berrora
• 8th:  Ellard*
• 7th: Varland
• 7th:  Wilson
• 6th:  Leasure
• 6th:  Magdaleno*
• LR:  Canning

Obviously still a huge work in progress, but at least most guys have something to offer in the short term and long term.  And ultimately, a lot of these guys will be replaced with minor league SPs who run out of other opportunities.

Taijuan Walker for Benintendi and let him fill that Canning role. You at least get out of a sunk cost a year sooner.

Edited December 8 by Bob Sacamano

[WhiteSox2023]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

“Looking from afar, I knew this (Milwaukee) was a team that gives guys chances,” Myers said. “They do a really good job with ‘no-name’ guys, just getting them to the big league level and getting some success under their belt.”

 

“On Sept. 14, 2022, Tobias Myers had a rough day on the mound.

Drawing the start for Triple-A Charlotte, the right-hander surrendered two homers and was tagged for six runs in his lone inning of work. In his final outing of the season, Myers was saddled with the loss, dropping his win-loss record to 1-15 and his ERA to 7.82.

Five days later, the White Sox released him.

That outing's two-year anniversary arrived a few weeks ago. But where is Myers now? After thriving in his rookie season as a front-line starter for a first-place club, he is lined up to start a winner-take-all Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series on Thursday night, of course.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/tobias-myers-standout-rookie-season-brewers

Sox scouting whiff?

[poppysox]

On 12/4/2024 at 10:12 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

For reference, here is how Steamer 600 projects that lineup for next year:

• 1B: Vaughn (1.6 fWAR | 110 wRC+)
• 2B: Sosa (1.7 fWAR | 95 wRC+)
• SS: Baldwin# (2.0 fWAR | 92 wRC+)
• 3B: Vargas (1.9 fWAR | 105 wRC+)
• LF: Benintendi (1.5 fWAR | 105 wRC+)
• CF: Robert (2.4 fWAR | 104 wRC+)
• RF: Fletcher (0.1 fWAR | 82 wRC+)
• DH: Rice* (1.8 fWAR | 115 wRC+)
• CA: Quero# (2.3 fWAR | 97 wRC+)

Outside of RF, all these guys project to be slightly below average to average regulars.  Overall it’s a bad lineup and not all these guys are going to hit those projections, but if we can end up with two of Sosa, Baldwin, Vargas, & Fletcher (or DeLoach) becoming second division starters moving forward that’s a better outcome than hoping we can flip some scrap heap signings for useful prospects at the deadline.

You are looking at the position players much like I do. If all your position players are in the top 15 at their respective positions... you will have an above-average team sans pitchers. When I look at pre-2024 rankings only Robert made the cut ranking 4th. Vaughn ranked 23rd, and Moncada ranked 22, and Fletcher 28th.  Shortstop, 2nd base, left field, and catcher were unranked in the top 30.  We can't be surprised that we played like a bottom-feeder.  Jerry should have a 200+ payroll every year as a major market team.  I believe that would put a respectable team on the field.  Instead, we are wandering around talking about 50 million-dollar payrolls.  200 million goes a long way when the target is "above average" at all positions instead of one or two stars.  

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

You are looking at the position players much like I do. If all your position players are in the top 15 at their respective positions... you will have an above-average team sans pitchers. When I look at pre-2024 rankings only Robert made the cut ranking 4th. Vaughn ranked 23rd, and Moncada ranked 22, and Fletcher 28th.  Shortstop, 2nd base, left field, and catcher were unranked in the top 30.  We can't be surprised that we played like a bottom-feeder.  Jerry should have a 200+ payroll every year as a major market team.  I believe that would put a respectable team on the field.  Instead, we are wandering around talking about 50 million-dollar payrolls.  200 million goes a long way when the target is "above average" at all positions instead of one or two stars.  

Can't spend $2.00 when you only (supposedly) have 50 cents...

Edited December 9 by caulfield12

[poppysox]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Can't spend $2.00 when you only (supposedly) have 50 cents...

I've heard that somewhere.  Very catchy. However,  I can't spend $1 when they give me a dime in entertainment value.  Perplexing.  

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, poppysox said:

I've heard that somewhere.  Very catchy. However,  I can't spend $1 when they give me a dime in entertainment value.  Perplexing.  

Well, when we're now routinely getting outspent by the KC Royals, Cleveland Guardians (Bieber extension) and Detroit Tigers, well, there's not much you can say...Sox fans are notorious for not blindly supporting a sub-par product, as opposed to blindly lining up like lemmings on the Northside for whatever mediocre experience the Ricketts family is currently pushing on their loyal customers.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Here's an off-season plan for people that aren't boot lickers:

I'll utilize crowd sourced numbers for some - if source is off by enough I'll use my forecasts.

Projected current payroll 65ish million.

Goal payroll - 125ish million (this puts the White Sox in line with KC. Hardly a big spender and should put the White Sox around 23rd in the league in spending (still at the bottom for a rebuild).

Free Agents:

Gleybar Torres - 3 years, 54 million
Hoffman - 3 years, 30 million
Christian Walker - 3 years, 45 million
Profar - 3 years, 40 million
Trevor Williams - 2 Years, 18 million

Every player above is a gamble with an upside.

Torres - coming off a career worst year but still only 27. He'll never be the superstar people thought, but in that park he can get you 3 WAR if we returns to form.
Hoffman - A good gamble on a guy who has come on in the past two years after he moved to reliever, could be moved at any time.
Walker - There's this odd large gap between first baseman and compensation. Walker is older and likely to fall into the underpaid side of things. I don't think Walker offers much in trade value, but who knows?
Profar and Williams both changed a lot about their games last year and had very positive results. The league likely may adjust back, but if they show good signs of life next year both will be tradable assets with a lot of value.

The above gets you to around 125 million after filling all other holes. It also gives you FIVE MLB quality big leaguers to watch next year. It gives your team some positive variance opportunities.

I'll add that I'd take O'Neil or Profar.

Edited December 10 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Nardiwashere]

Any chance we are interested in Ha-Seong Kim?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Any chance we are interested in Ha-Seong Kim?

 

Back when MLBTR did their top 50 free agent predictions, 2 of the writers had us signing him and 2 others had the Sox signing Hyeseong Kim. Obviously their guesses are worth nothing but just felt like tossing that out there. 
 

I guess for discussion sake, I wouldn’t hate signing either.

[southsider2k5]

25 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

Any chance we are interested in Ha-Seong Kim?

 

Is he a guy who is under the international signing umbrella or a true free agent?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Is he a guy who is under the international signing umbrella or a true free agent?

 

He's talking about the Kim from the Padres. The other Kim coming over is a true free agent.

[Nardiwashere]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Is he a guy who is under the international signing umbrella or a true free agent?

 

I was talking about the Padres guy.  Can play multiple positions and is good.  I think he's hurt to start the season so probably will take a lesser deal to prove he's healthy.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

55 minutes ago, Nardiwashere said:

I was talking about the Padres guy.  Can play multiple positions and is good.  I think he's hurt to start the season so probably will take a lesser deal to prove he's healthy.  

The thing I don't like about Kim is you have to pay more of a premium because he's less likely to be awful (higher floor), but his ceiling outcomes aren't that much different than other guys in his class who will be a good bit cheaper. The Sox shouldn't spend much time worrying about downside risk because they're going to be dreadful, so they should focus more on the cheaper-but-not-cheapest tier where the upside is there but there's a lot more uncertainty about them as well (lower floors).

[WhiteSox2023]

On 12/8/2024 at 6:21 PM, poppysox said:

I've heard that somewhere.  Very catchy. However,  I can't spend $1 when they give me a dime in entertainment value.  Perplexing.  

It’s an infamous old Kenny Williams quote that he used at least twice but probably more, typically when he failed to get anything big done in the offseason.  It became a meme for the Sox continually failing to land a big name free agent.

White Sox GM Ken Williams, on whether he's still shopping: "You can't offer a guy a dollar if you've only got 50 cents.'

“I've used the line before that you can't give someone a dollar if you only have 50 cents," Williams said.

[caulfield12]

"The younger (not HaSeong of the 6 fWAR two seasons ago!!!) Kim has excellent bat-to-ball skills, but he's also never shown much power. He has just 37 home runs in nearly 1,000 games in the KBO, and his career high in home runs is 11, set in 2024. Kim is a plus defender at second base and can play shortstop in a pinch."

 

 

Basically, he would be Iguchi but with even less power...more like Madrigal, in all likelihood.

And then we already have Sosa, Vargas, Baldwin that all profile as 2B.

We REALLY need someone who can legitimately play SS on an everyday basis, and that's a healthy HaSeong Kim.

 

 

As recently noted by Anthony Franco in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, HaSeong Kim is one of the trickiest players to evaluate within the 2024-25 free agent class, owing to the shoulder surgery (jammed it sliding into second base) that Kim underwent in late September.  Kim will miss some time at the start of the 2025 season, though the exact timeline is up in the air — agent Scott Boras said a late-April return is possible, while Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in October said Kim might not be ready until “May, June, July." (does he have ANY possible motivation to suggest that, lol?????) It should be noted that Preller was speaking broadly on the topic rather than giving any sort of definitive timeline, yet even raising the possibility of a three-month range adds to the uncertainty over Kim’s health.

Some teams have still floated the idea of signing Kim to a multi-year contract, though the exact nature of such offers aren’t clear.  It would be risky to offer Kim something like four or five guaranteed years, but a two-year contract (likely with a player opt-out after 2025) seems entirely plausible.  Kim and agent Scott Boras might also seek out a flat one-year deal with the same idea of Kim getting to quickly re-enter the market next winter, ostensibly on the heels of a healthier and productive platform year.  MLBTR’s projection of a one-year, $12MM contract for Kim supports this strategy, though Boras is no stranger to creative deals that provide his clients with plenty of flexibility.    mlbtraderumors.com

 

At least if they signed KIm, they would have insurance for Amaya/Maton at SS and have the upside (hopefully) of being able to flip him to a contender in 2024/25 when his level of play rebounded to 2023 levels...although clearly that's not a guarantee with the surgery and his hitting his 30's and an eventual decline after coming into his own offensively.  It would also buy time for Caleb Bonemer's development.

Of course, it also depends on how much you buy Colson Montgomery's braggadocio about starting for the White Sox at SS on Opening Day, 2025.

Edited December 11 by caulfield12

[Snopek]

So what’s next? Veteran SP?

Kinda funny that they can probably promise whoever they’re courting the opening day nod.

[steveno89]

5 minutes ago, Snopek said:

So what’s next? Veteran SP?

Kinda funny that they can probably promise whoever they’re courting the opening day nod.

Sox have to bring in a few veteran arms to eat innings for what is going to be an awful 2025 club