2024-25 Offseason Plan Thread

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Ah the famous compliment, being compared to Red Sox fans. Well done Getz.

 

Better than being compared to Phillies fans, amirite?

[Chicago White Sox]

Alright, switching over to the rotation, I think the Sox should hold off making any major additions here.  And by major, I obviously don’t mean good, just ones that will require a commitment of say $5M or more that will force them into a spot regardless of other options.  I’d be good with signing some sort of veteran swingman on the cheap that can slot into the rotation in a pinch, but I’d prefer leaving all five spots open for our younger, more controllable arms.

The reason for this is I like our in-house options and feel like we have a large enough quantity of guys to survive a season.  I’m going to break this down into two sections.  First, I want to go through the four guys I think deserve spots baring injury or truly disastrous spring trainings.

• Davis Martin (28 years old | 4.02 xERA in Y24 | 1.9 fWAR in Y25)
• Jonathon Cannon (24 years old | 4.37 xERA in Y24 | 1.4 fWAR in Y25)
• Drew Thorpe (24 years old | 4.68 xERA in Y24 | 1.5 fWAR in Y25)
• Sean Burke (25 years old | 3.91 xERA in Y24 | 1.7 fWAR in Y25)

While this may not be the most exciting group of pitchers, they all project to be useful major league starters based on their Steamer 600 projections above and their success last year in admittedly SSS.  All four of these guys should have six years of control remaining which makes them potential assets.  Giving them each 32 starts next year (baring trades or injury) should be a priority for us.

That leaves the #5 spot to fill and we have a lot of options there.  IMO, this should be an open competition heading into spring training between the first three guys listed below.  The last two guys should not be in the Opening Day mix, but could and should be pushing for rotation spots later in the season.

• Nick Nastrini (25 years old | Majors | TBD org | 0.5 fWAR in Y25)
• Ky Bush (25 years old | Majors | #9 org prospect | -0.9 fWAR in Y25)
• Mason Adams (25 years old | AAA | #10 org prospect | 0.3 fWAR in Y25)
• Jairo Iriarte (23 years old | Majors | #6 org prospect | -0.3 fWAR in Y25)
• Noah Schultz (21 years old | AA | #1 org prospect | 2.6 fWAR in Y25)

The Steamer 600 projections above aren’t obviously pretty for the guys other than Schultz, but I think they are over-indexing on SSS in AAA / major leagues for the most part.  I personally think Bush & Adams are close to being ready and are very much capable of being productive major leaguers next year.  I have no idea what happened with Nastrini last season, but he went from a fringe top 100 prospect to a huge question mark.  That being said, if no one grabs the role in spring training, I’d be ok with using Nick as a placeholder in the #5 spot for a month or so.  See what you have and if he fails, then try him as a reliever.  As for Iriarte & Schultz, while I don’t want them in the OD mix, I also don’t want to block them with a mediocre veteran.  If / when they are ready, they should be given spots because their ceilings are so much greater than the other guys mentioned above.

[southsider2k5]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, switching over to the rotation, I think the Sox should hold off making any major additions here.  And by major, I obviously don’t mean good, just ones that will require a commitment of say $5M or more that will force them into a spot regardless of other options.  I’d be good with signing some sort of veteran swingman on the cheap that can slot into the rotation in a pinch, but I’d prefer leaving all five spots open for our younger, more controllable arms.

The reason for this is I like our in-house options and feel like we have a large enough quantity of guys to survive a season.  I’m going to break this down into two sections.  First, I want to go through the four guys I think deserve spots baring injury or truly disastrous spring trainings.

• Davis Martin (28 years old | 4.02 xERA in Y24 | 1.9 fWAR in Y25)
• Jonathon Cannon (24 years old | 4.37 xERA in Y24 | 1.4 fWAR in Y25)
• Drew Thorpe (24 years old | 4.68 xERA in Y24 | 1.5 fWAR in Y25)
• Sean Burke (25 years old | 3.91 xERA in Y24 | 1.7 fWAR in Y25)

While this may not be the most exciting group of pitchers, they all project to be useful major league starters based on their Steamer 600 projections above and their success last year in admittedly SSS.  All four of these guys should have six years of control remaining which makes them potential assets.  Giving them each 32 starts next year (baring trades or injury) should be a priority for us.

That leaves the #5 spot to fill and we have a lot of options there.  IMO, this should be an open competition heading into spring training between the first three guys listed below.  The last two guys should not be in the Opening Day mix, but could and should be pushing for rotation spots later in the season.

• Nick Nastrini (25 years old | Majors | TBD org | 0.5 fWAR in Y25)
• Ky Bush (25 years old | Majors | #9 org prospect | -0.9 fWAR in Y25)
• Mason Adams (25 years old | AAA | #10 org prospect | 0.3 fWAR in Y25)
• Jairo Iriarte (23 years old | Majors | #6 org prospect | -0.3 fWAR in Y25)
• Noah Schultz (21 years old | AA | #1 org prospect | 2.6 fWAR in Y25)

The Steamer 600 projections above aren’t obviously pretty for the guys other than Schultz, but I think they are over-indexing on SSS in AAA / major leagues for the most part.  I personally think Bush & Adams are close to being ready and are very much capable of being productive major leaguers next year.  I have no idea what happened with Nastrini last season, but he went from a fringe top 100 prospect to a huge question mark.  That being said, if no one grabs the role in spring training, I’d be ok with using Nick as a placeholder in the #5 spot for a month or so.  See what you have and if he fails, then try him as a reliever.  As for Iriarte & Schultz, while I don’t want them in the OD mix, I also don’t want to block them with a mediocre veteran.  If / when they are ready, they should be given spots because their ceilings are so much greater than the other guys mentioned above.

Eh, there is no way all of those guys are ready to have respectable seasons where they throw 150 innings.  Whether it be injuries, or failures, or whatever else, there will be plenty of innings to fill.  Guys somewhere between Fedde and Flexin type signings are fine for this group. 

[T R U]

On 12/4/2024 at 9:12 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

For reference, here is how Steamer 600 projects that lineup for next year:

• 1B: Vaughn (1.6 fWAR | 110 wRC+)
• 2B: Sosa (1.7 fWAR | 95 wRC+)
• SS: Baldwin# (2.0 fWAR | 92 wRC+)
• 3B: Vargas (1.9 fWAR | 105 wRC+)
• LF: Benintendi (1.5 fWAR | 105 wRC+)
• CF: Robert (2.4 fWAR | 104 wRC+)
• RF: Fletcher (0.1 fWAR | 82 wRC+)
• DH: Rice* (1.8 fWAR | 115 wRC+)
• CA: Quero# (2.3 fWAR | 97 wRC+)

Outside of RF, all these guys project to be slightly below average to average regulars.  Overall it’s a bad lineup and not all these guys are going to hit those projections, but if we can end up with two of Sosa, Baldwin, Vargas, & Fletcher (or DeLoach) becoming second division starters moving forward that’s a better outcome than hoping we can flip some scrap heap signings for useful prospects at the deadline.

This is insanity, we just watched almost the exact group put up the worst season in MLB history but next season they will all be pushing 2 WAR each? No chance.

[WhiteSox2023]

46 minutes ago, T R U said:

This is insanity, we just watched almost the exact group put up the worst season in MLB history but next season they will all be pushing 2 WAR each? No chance.

Agreed.  I wouldn’t bet on one of those guys to have a good season.  Not even Robert due to last season and his propensity for injuries.  The Sox lineup is mostly composed of AAAA quality scrubs and borderline major leaguers at best.

Steamer is apparently a steaming pile of poop.

Edited December 5 by WhiteSox2023

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Eh, there is no way all of those guys are ready to have respectable seasons where they throw 150 innings.  Whether it be injuries, or failures, or whatever else, there will be plenty of innings to fill.  Guys somewhere between Fedde and Flexin type signings are fine for this group. 

There's a big difference between these two types of signings.

With Fedde, you could call it a gamble. The guy looked to have some nonzero chance at outperforming his contract, at having figured things out overseas. I'd be ok with something like that again. 

Flexen looks like a different matter to me. He was coming off a year when his big league ERA was 7. HIs peripherals were terrible, almost as bad as Thorpe. I look at him as "Cheap innings". There's nothing obvious about his profile that says he had a chance at improvement. These we don't need.

If you can give me a guy who has some chance at being better, someone who has a chance at being tradable, I'm ok with that. Someone coming off TJS, or someone who had a dramatic drop-off for reasons. Walker Buehler comes to mind here - you could definitely talk me into a 2 year deal for him with an opt-out after year 1, although I'm not sure if Getz would do that since "We don't do opt outs" was a thing for the White Sox previously.

I find the Soroka gamble a lot smarter than the Flexen signing, if we were doing things like that again.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Alright, switching over to the rotation, I think the Sox should hold off making any major additions here.  And by major, I obviously don’t mean good, just ones that will require a commitment of say $5M or more that will force them into a spot regardless of other options.  I’d be good with signing some sort of veteran swingman on the cheap that can slot into the rotation in a pinch, but I’d prefer leaving all five spots open for our younger, more controllable arms.

The reason for this is I like our in-house options and feel like we have a large enough quantity of guys to survive a season.  I’m going to break this down into two sections.  First, I want to go through the four guys I think deserve spots baring injury or truly disastrous spring trainings.

• Davis Martin (28 years old | 4.02 xERA in Y24 | 1.9 fWAR in Y25)
• Jonathon Cannon (24 years old | 4.37 xERA in Y24 | 1.4 fWAR in Y25)
• Drew Thorpe (24 years old | 4.68 xERA in Y24 | 1.5 fWAR in Y25)
• Sean Burke (25 years old | 3.91 xERA in Y24 | 1.7 fWAR in Y25)

While this may not be the most exciting group of pitchers, they all project to be useful major league starters based on their Steamer 600 projections above and their success last year in admittedly SSS.  All four of these guys should have six years of control remaining which makes them potential assets.  Giving them each 32 starts next year (baring trades or injury) should be a priority for us.

That leaves the #5 spot to fill and we have a lot of options there.  IMO, this should be an open competition heading into spring training between the first three guys listed below.  The last two guys should not be in the Opening Day mix, but could and should be pushing for rotation spots later in the season.

• Nick Nastrini (25 years old | Majors | TBD org | 0.5 fWAR in Y25)
• Ky Bush (25 years old | Majors | #9 org prospect | -0.9 fWAR in Y25)
• Mason Adams (25 years old | AAA | #10 org prospect | 0.3 fWAR in Y25)
• Jairo Iriarte (23 years old | Majors | #6 org prospect | -0.3 fWAR in Y25)
• Noah Schultz (21 years old | AA | #1 org prospect | 2.6 fWAR in Y25)

The Steamer 600 projections above aren’t obviously pretty for the guys other than Schultz, but I think they are over-indexing on SSS in AAA / major leagues for the most part.  I personally think Bush & Adams are close to being ready and are very much capable of being productive major leaguers next year.  I have no idea what happened with Nastrini last season, but he went from a fringe top 100 prospect to a huge question mark.  That being said, if no one grabs the role in spring training, I’d be ok with using Nick as a placeholder in the #5 spot for a month or so.  See what you have and if he fails, then try him as a reliever.  As for Iriarte & Schultz, while I don’t want them in the OD mix, I also don’t want to block them with a mediocre veteran.  If / when they are ready, they should be given spots because their ceilings are so much greater than the other guys mentioned above.

Just to add, while in general I see the concept of going with this and it's better than a bunch of Flexen signings...boy is this ever an un-heralded group.

If people actually think that Katz and Bannister are miracle workers, here's the rotation for them to show it.

If this rotation is just plain awful, the excuses are already written. "How could you expect better with so little talent in the rotation" is going to be the thing written when people try to judge them next fall.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Eh, there is no way all of those guys are ready to have respectable seasons where they throw 150 innings.  Whether it be injuries, or failures, or whatever else, there will be plenty of innings to fill.  Guys somewhere between Fedde and Flexin type signings are fine for this group. 

If you sign a Fedde type signing, you are taking 21 starts away from the other nine options I listed short of that specific player getting injured.  And if that’s the case, I’d rather just give those starts to some combo of Nastrini, Bush, or Adams.  They are all 25 years old and need to get shots before the higher ceiling guys like Schultz, Smith, Taylor, & possibly Iriarte begin to arrive.  And if one of them hits, it’s a much better asset than what we’d likely be able to flip the Fedde type signing for at the deadline.

A Flexen type signing?  Sure, which is why I said I’d be willing to sign a cheap swingman to place in the pen.  And don’t get me wrong, I’d also do a bunch of minor league deals so we have some depth in Charlotte in the event of multiple injuries.  But I don’t want Venable forced into using a rotation spot on a veteran because he’s being paid $7.5M/year and we’re hoping to flip him.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If you sign a Fedde type signing, you are taking 21 starts away from the other nine options I listed short of that specific player getting injured.  And if that’s the case, I’d rather just give those starts to some combo of Nastrini, Bush, or Adams.  They are all 25 years old and need to get shots before the higher ceiling guys like Schultz, Smith, Taylor, & possibly Iriarte begin to arrive.  And if one of them hits, it’s a much better asset than what we’d likely be able to flip the Fedde type signing for at the deadline.

A Flexen type signing?  Sure, which is why I said I’d be willing to sign a cheap swingman to place in the pen.  And don’t get me wrong, I’d also do a bunch of minor league deals so we have some depth in Charlotte in the event of multiple injuries.  But I don’t want Venable forced into using a rotation spot on a veteran because he’s being paid $7.5M/year and we’re hoping to flip him.

There is no way on god's green earth that all of those guys are ready on April 1st.  None.  If by some miracle we have too much pitching, and these guys are forcing their way on to the roster, trade someone.  I can't remember the last time this actually happened though, and sure don't think it will happen in 2025.   

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, T R U said:

This is insanity, we just watched almost the exact group put up the worst season in MLB history but next season they will all be pushing 2 WAR each? No chance.

These aren’t my projections and I agree they seem optimistic, which is actually quite fascinating since projection systems like Steamer are almost always bias to the conservative side of things.  That being said, some of these guys hit very well in the minors last year and that’s being reflected in the projections for Vargas, Sosa, Baldwin, & Quero.  Vaughn surprises me the most, because that’s a huge step up for him fWAR wise, but even then it’s assuming his wOBA next year simply matches his xwOBA this past year which isn’t all that crazy.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Agreed.  I wouldn’t bet on one of those guys to have a good season.  Not even Robert due to last season and his propensity for injuries.  The Sox lineup is mostly composed of AAAA quality scrubs and borderline major leaguers at best.

Steamer is apparently a steaming pile of poop.

Getting 2.4 fWAR out of Robert over the course of a full healthy season would be horrible, so not sure how you jumped to that conclusion.  Also, while I’m not going to defend the accuracy of projection systems like Steamer, they also assume that young players get better over time and aren’t forever their rookie seasons or even their first cups of coffee.  Unfortunately, many fans lack any sort of patience and immediately write off young players who struggle early on unless they are of the top 100 type variety.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Just to add, while in general I see the concept of going with this and it's better than a bunch of Flexen signings...boy is this ever an un-heralded group.

If people actually think that Katz and Bannister are miracle workers, here's the rotation for them to show it.

If this rotation is just plain awful, the excuses are already written. "How could you expect better with so little talent in the rotation" is going to be the thing written when people try to judge them next fall.

I guess I disagree on the lack of talent.  Thorpe was a top 100 prospect heading into last season and peaked around 60th overall.  Burke is a former 3rd round pick who just popped up as a top 25 pitching prospect in a Fangraphs based projection model.  Cannon is a former 3rd pick who lacks ceiling, but offers a very high floor and has already performed well in the majors as a BOR innings eater.  Martin was a guy with some helium before getting injured and looked pretty good last year and flashed two plus secondaries.

These guys don’t have TOR potential but they could potentially solve the #3 to #5 of a decent rotation to varying degrees.  And coming off a 120 loss season and needing to buy some time before the high ceiling guys hit (Schultz, Smith, & Taylor), these are exactly the type of pitchers you give starts to.  Also, not sure what your comment about “built in excuses is referring to”.  Steamer thinks we should get 6.5 fWAR out of them next year if they each pitch 1,000 innings total.  That many innings won’t happen obviously, but I’d 100% be willing to hold Katz accountable for achieving that level of production on a per rate basis.

[Chicago White Sox]

37 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is no way on god's green earth that all of those guys are ready on April 1st.  None.  If by some miracle we have too much pitching, and these guys are forcing their way on to the roster, trade someone.  I can't remember the last time this actually happened though, and sure don't think it will happen in 2025.   

Which guys don’t you think will be ready?  Fry, Adams, & Nastrini?  The other four guys I mentioned were in the rotation already and performing well outside of Thorpe due to injury.

[southsider2k5]

19 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Which guys don’t you think will be ready?  Fry, Adams, & Nastrini?  The other four guys I mentioned were in the rotation already and performing well outside of Thorpe due to injury.

I have no idea, but odds are at least one, if not two.  Hell maybe even all three.  Growth isn't linear.

[poppysox]

17 hours ago, hi8is said:

Plan? Ya’ll think there’s a plan?? I think it’s pretty much this:

✅ Get a new manager and some new coaches 

✅ Trade the G

✅ Try to trade R

✅ Field any team that costs next to nothing 

Play ball.

I think the above...plus selling the team is the plan.  Jerry is 88 years old and is not taking some build the team from the bottom up plan of action.  Not long now would be my bet.

[T R U]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

These aren’t my projections and I agree they seem optimistic, which is actually quite fascinating since projection systems like Steamer are almost always bias to the conservative side of things.  That being said, some of these guys hit very well in the minors last year and that’s being reflected in the projections for Vargas, Sosa, Baldwin, & Quero.  Vaughn surprises me the most, because that’s a huge step up for him fWAR wise, but even then it’s assuming his wOBA next year simply matches his xwOBA this past year which isn’t all that crazy.

Also, just to be clear I wasn't calling you insane it was indeed the projections. 

I don't see any way that all happens. 

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, T R U said:

Also, just to be clear I wasn't calling you insane it was indeed the projections. 

I don't see any way that all happens. 

Outside of Quero/Montgomery, it would almost be a miracle if any of those second/third tier guys ended up at 2.0 or higher.

Maybe Baldwin could come close if he at least played a major league average SS, but that would be largely unexpected IMO.

[WhiteSox2023]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Getting 2.4 fWAR out of Robert over the course of a full healthy season would be horrible, so not sure how you jumped to that conclusion.  Also, while I’m not going to defend the accuracy of projection systems like Steamer, they also assume that young players get better over time and aren’t forever their rookie seasons or even their first cups of coffee.  Unfortunately, many fans lack any sort of patience and immediately write off young players who struggle early on unless they are of the top 100 type variety.

I mentioned Robert’s propensity for injuries and horrible season last year as to why I wouldn’t put a dollar on him putting up a 2.4 fWAR in 2025.  Also, the lineup is terrible just like last year so he will have zero protection once again.

[Lip Man 1]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-luis-robert-should-be-a-top-trade-candidate-white-sox-center-fielder-still-has-huge-upside-for-right-team/

[Bob Sacamano]

Buy-low of Brett Baty for 3B?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/mets-trade-rumors-brett-baty-starting-pitching.html

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Buy-low of Brett Baty for 3B?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/mets-trade-rumors-brett-baty-starting-pitching.html

The only challenge there is we already a bounce-back guy we need to give a look in Vargas and another near major league prospect in Ramos.  I’d rather target a post hype RF type or someone that can slot in at DH.

[Lip Man 1]

https://links.mlb.mlbemail.com/e/evib?_t=c632e003a756446c956a8e0347d00d08&_m=a75519cdc1694f36b756cd473dc6a506&_e=ZjR6ee_39t8fo-UfUlll-l2wqUG81XFmJC85vtmCjOFiTwM5Tb0LGsyKgkwaOGBu5K0ac5vovswZR9AGx5w-fw%3D%3D

[oldsox]

18 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The only challenge there is we already a bounce-back guy we need to give a look in Vargas and another near major league prospect in Ramos.  I’d rather target a post hype RF type or someone that can slot in at DH.

Vargas already got his look.

[Chicago White Sox]

46 minutes ago, oldsox said:

Vargas already got his look.

So his look is a 157 plate appearances after being traded from the eventual World Series winner to the worst team in baseball history?

[Snopek]

3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So his look is a 157 plate appearances after being traded from the eventual World Series winner to the worst team in baseball history?

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s awesome how guys like Acuna, Soto, Carroll, Merrill, etc became stars almost instantly.

But man, that has completely warped our expectations and timelines of all other prospects.