State of the farm system

[Quin]

9 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

More like 12 minutes. I agree that KW probably didn't see the value in a full investment in development, so he never went to bat with JR for it. If you're an accountant, and the boss won't let you use computers, or even calculators, it's unfair to say all the failures of that company are because of the new accountant. I'm pretty sure Getz didn't get the job, and forbid the use of statistical data or even iPads. Seeing how he's conducted his rebuild of the infrastructure, he's probably been banging his head against the wall for years trying to get these things done. 

I can definitely agree with this point after a year of watching him work.

[WhiteSox2023]

“Just win, baby!”

Still the best @greg775 quote ever.

[Quin]

3 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

“Just win, baby!”

Still the best @greg775 quote ever.

I'm sorry, this is third after betting homes and TA at catcher.

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, Quin said:

This is kind of how I view Suareo's post: "It's more calculated, complimentary, etc."

• Citing potential aces like Schultz, Smith and Taylor: The 2017 rebuild rotation was Giolito-Kopech-Lopez-Cease-Dunning. Rodon was a "maybe he comes back?" guy. Smith hasn't thrown a full year, Taylor needs health, and this is forgetting Alec Hansen's brief run of dominance in the minors. Fulmer was also in there.
• Dudes who walk: Moncada was supposed to be a high-OBP guy (he swung out looking, so, so many times). Eloy had a high OBP in the minors. Abreu was here. Anderson was the BABIP guy. Robert was the 5-tool star in the wings. Collins - again - was supposed to be a high OBP catcher. Same with Burger.
• Let fans be excited: Many were, then you had the "just win, baby!" greg types. But this go around the draft is harsher and we know Jerry won't spend on free agents, especially when he had the golden opportunity of Machado/Harper.

So that post wasn't a knock on you, but on the tweet. He's looking back on the previous rebuild with PURE hindsight and is assuming perfect health and development for this one.

I understand you're commenting on the tweet. 

I don't think Hostetler was very good at his job, even when the higher ups weren't bum rushing the war room to make his picks for him. They wouldn't commit to investing in development, so all avenues were doomed to failure beyond the rare guy who just willed himself into being a slightly better than average utility guy. 

I can only assume (and hope) that the guy who was smack in the middle of that, and fought those battles is updating the organization appropriately. The fact the the last rebuild conducted by a different regime - failed - doesn't mean that this one is doomed to fail. I like watching a rebuild progress. It's all we have right now. 

[WestEddy]

27 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

It’s annoying that some on the “rah-rah” side won’t accept that someone can think that the Crochet trade was good but that the Cease trade was mediocre, and that most of Getz’s other trades have been bad.

If I'm a "rah-rah" type, I generally accept that the Cease trade was a bit short, and the rest of his trades range from inconsequential to good. Your portrayal is that everything before the Crochet trade proved that Getz is a horrible GM, which you need to post multiple times a day, across the entire site. 

I believe the jury's out on Getz, and he's growing in his job. I don't care about a single trade of Matt Thompson for Bailey Horn. I do care that Getz is redoing scouting, development, stats analysis, ML coaching, hitting and pitching coordination. I think that's way more important than if he waived Jake Cousins too soon. 

[WhiteSox2023]

12 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

If I'm a "rah-rah" type, I generally accept that the Cease trade was a bit short, and the rest of his trades range from inconsequential to good. Your portrayal is that everything before the Crochet trade proved that Getz is a horrible GM, which you need to post multiple times a day, across the entire site. 

I believe the jury's out on Getz, and he's growing in his job. I don't care about a single trade of Matt Thompson for Bailey Horn. I do care that Getz is redoing scouting, development, stats analysis, ML coaching, hitting and pitching coordination. I think that's way more important than if he waived Jake Cousins too soon. 

I wasn’t referring to you.  I remembered that you said the Cease trade was one prospect light.  I actually don’t like that Getz traded for Fletcher and DeLoach, barely gave them much of a chance, and quickly acquired a Tauchman/Slater platoon that may mean even less playing time for Fletcher and DeLoach.  He compounded perhaps a couple bad moves with even worse moves for veterans that really serve no purpose on this team.  But we don’t even know if those initial moves (Fletcher and DeLoach) were truly bad yet because Getz didn’t give them enough of a chance.  Also, Getz was here when Colas was acquired and developing.  It’s annoying that it doesn’t seem like he will be given a shot either.  Shouldn’t these “down seasons” be used to see what young players may turn into something?  Just seems like a waste of resources.

Edited December 13 by WhiteSox2023

[Quin]

I see we're all having some sort of peace conference.

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I wasn’t referring to you.  I remembered that you said the Cease trade was one prospect light.  I actually don’t like that Getz traded for Fletcher and DeLoach, barely gave them much of a chance, and quickly acquired a Tauchman/Slater platoon that may get them even less playing time.  He compounded perhaps a couple bad moves with even worse moves.  But we don’t even know if those initial moves were truly bad yet because Getz didn’t give them enough of a chance.  Also, Getz was here when Colas was acquired and developing.  It’s annoying that it doesn’t seem like he will be given a shot either.  Just seems like a waste of resources.

I think a lot of last spring training's moves (and the first few months) can be chalked up to "in over his head" and/or hubris. But I also think they are somewhat linked to the subsequent house-cleaning of scouting. Getz inherited a horrible team, then got his budget cut. Getz scrambled, and regardless of how he was hired, I want to see how he builds this team. He's learning on the job. He slowed the Crochet talks down nicely to get what he wanted. That's a clear step up from the Fedde/Kopech debacle. 

Colas - I just remember TA7 or Elvis catching a throw from Colas, and just standing at 2B, glaring into the OF at an obviously wrong choice. Colas did that a lot, and then gets into it with other OFs over coverage, or whatnot. Sure, I'd like to see a good 3 months of the guy, but he seems relatively uncoachable, and would make a nice pairing with Benintendi as the "prospect to cover a year's salary" in a salary dump. 

I'll wait and see how pro-scouting 2.0 does with his next round of perifferal trades. 

[WestEddy]

14 minutes ago, Quin said:

I see we're all having some sort of peace conference.

In addition to a rollback on sanctions of Cristian Mena mentions, I'm willing to concede and ratchet down my description of the Fedde trade as a "debacle" in exchange for the recognition of Riley Gowens as a legitimate starting pitching prospect. 

[WhiteSox2023]

3 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

In addition to a rollback on sanctions of Cristian Mena mentions, I'm willing to concede and ratchet down my description of the Fedde trade as a "debacle" in exchange for the recognition of Riley Gowens as a legitimate starting pitching prospect. 

I don’t expect it, but I hope Vargas lights it up this year and turns the Fedde trade it into Getz’s greatest move ever.  I will gladly eat 💩 to be proven wrong on that trade.

Also, someone tell Frank to give Miguel a large supply of Nugenix.  This is no way to go through your baseball life…

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

 

How do Cannon and Thorpe have high floors? There's a good chance both those guys are out of baseball in under 4 years.

The difference between this "rebuild" and the last one is that the last one wasn't starting from zero. They had players that the young players were supplementing. Anderson, Abreu, Giolito, Rodon and Reylo were already a part of the major league club. The White Sox have to find an entire roster! They also have far fewer top 10 prospects which have a much higher success rate comparatively.

He's comparing Grant Taylor? to Giolito/Cease/Rodon? He isn't even as big a prospect as Reylo.

One similarity between this rebuild and the last one is all the white sox bloggers and insiders are telling us how "this time, these guys are smart.... these guys are doing it differently!"

Kenny Williams still catching strays in this thread when I'd give anything for a GM to have Kenny Williams level of success again.

 

Edited December 13 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[WestEddy]

13 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

I don’t expect it, but I hope Vargas lights it up this year and turns the Fedde trade it into Getz’s greatest move ever.  I will gladly eat 💩 to be proven wrong on that trade.

Also, someone tell Frank to give Miguel a large supply of Nugenix.  This is no way to go through your baseball life…

Dude looks like one of those people being freed from a Syrian prison. 

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

How do Cannon and Thorpe have high floors? There's a good chance both those guys are out of baseball in under 5 years.

The difference between this "rebuild" and the last one is that the last one wasn't starting from zero. They had players that the young players were supplementing. Anderson, Abreu, Giolito, Rodon and Reylo were already a part of the major league club. The White Sox have to find an entire roster! They also have far fewer top 10 prospects which have a much higher success rate comparatively.

He's comparing Grant Taylor? to Giolito/Cease/Rodon? He isn't even as big a prospect as Reylo.

One similarity between this rebuild and the last one is all the white sox bloggers and insiders are telling us how "this time, these guys are smart.... these guys are doing it differently!"

Kenny Williams still catching strays in this thread when I'd give anything for a GM to have Kenny Williams level of success again.

 

Okay, so no rebuild will ever work again. Conversely, your plan of signing 5 middling free agents won't work, either, because free agents have always failed upon coming to the Sox. Therefore, the Sox will continue to set the record for losses until they hit 162 sometime in the early 2030s, then never win another game again. 

Cannon and Thorpe can throw strikes, and have had limited success at the ML level. There's also a good chance they're still both pitching in 5 years. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Okay, so no rebuild will ever work again. Conversely, your plan of signing 5 middling free agents won't work, either, because free agents have always failed upon coming to the Sox. Therefore, the Sox will continue to set the record for losses until they hit 162 sometime in the early 2030s, then never win another game again. 

Cannon and Thorpe can throw strikes, and have had limited success at the ML level. There's also a good chance they're still both pitching in 5 years. 

I never said it would never work. I'm saying don't lie about what you're selling.

This rebuild is not in a better position than the last one was. Does that mean this one can't turn out better? Of course not; I understand the laws of probability. That said, don't try and tell people who are rightfully hesitant and reluctant that it's different.

The average MLB tenure for a pitcher, since 2005, is 2.85 years. A starter is slightly higher. I'd take the under on both of them easily.

[TaylorStSox]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Player Development was quite literally Chris Getz's job.

And he identified this as a hole and revamped the system. People learn. They grow. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I think we can all agree it’s relatively easy to tear down and start building up a young core but it’s what comes next that’s hardest and what truly defines a GM. Can they push their team over the hump to a title or at least a pennant? Everyone was crowning guys like Mike Elias and Ryan Poles after they only did the easy part. Said that all last winter. Their defining moment is now. Next few years will define GM Chris Getz.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I never said it would never work. I'm saying don't lie about what you're selling.

This rebuild is not in a better position than the last one was. Does that mean this one can't turn out better? Of course not; I understand the laws of probability. That said, don't try and tell people who are rightfully hesitant and reluctant that it's different.

The average MLB tenure for a pitcher, since 2005, is 2.85 years. A starter is slightly higher. I'd take the under on both of them easily.

I agree not yet. But give it another 18 months and it very well could be. We’re only 9 months into the start of this rebuild. It’s still early.

edit: guess one could argue we’re 16 months into it if you define late July 2023 as the start of the rebuild. Still early regardless.

Edited December 13 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[FriendlyNorthsider]

I think the Sox will be at least a top 3 farm by summer 2026 depending on graduations. 

On top of this group, they’ll get a haul for Robert. Personally I’d prefer they get young MLB guys like a package of CES, Noelvi Marte plus from the Reds, but regardless it’ll be a haul. 
 

theyll get a nice player at 10 this year and at least a top 4 pick in 2026 which seems to be stacked with elite prep bats. 

The big factor this year will be the emergence of Colson, the turnaround of Jacob Gonzalez, and an explosion from Wolkow. 

I really believe in Wolkow. The swing and miss is a monster concern obviously. 158 strikeouts in 337 bats is bad. But he’s turning 19 in January and was a super raw player out of Downers grove. He’s learning on the fly and shows flashes of dominance. 
 

when Judge was 18, he was still playing high school ball. At 19 he had 2 homers and 42ks in 187Abs in the WAC. Another 6’7 stud James Wood had 124ks in 323 ABs in AA at 20. He struck out only 42 times in 190 AAA ABs the next year. Spencer Jones (6’6) struck out 200 times in AA in his age 23 season in 482 ABs. 
 

My point isn’t that he’ll be like those guys. Mainly, that the Ks are going to be a thing and that he will probably never lose the swing and miss in his game. Plate Discipline and pitch recognition can develop. He led Kanny in Homers at 18 years old

when I watch him hit a few things stick out to me. 1.) his pitch recognition isn’t there yet. He watches a lot of good knee high fastballs and looks fooled on breaking stuff. It’s not that he’s chasing stuff, he just doesn’t look like he has a plan at the plate sometimes.  If he was 23 with 3 years of college and 2 of pro ball I’d be worried. But we’re a long way from that. I2.) he is swinging too hard. His head goes flying. The bat speed and exit velos are probably great, but he’s swinging like he isn’t built like a tank. 3.) the swing is beautiful. Yeah it’s too hard, but watch the cut at 3:10. He keeps his head down and lets his strength and launch angle do the work and hits the ball a mile. 4.) he’s built like a major leaguer already. Scratch that built like a tight end. His legs are massive and he looks comfortable in his size. 

Really rooting for the kid this year. As MJ said, the ceiling is the roof

[WhiteSox2023]

6 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

And he identified this as a hole and revamped the system. People learn. They grow. 

He identified himself as the hole?  Excellent awareness by our GM.

Sorry, I had to make the joke…

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I agree not yet. But give it another 18 months and it very well could be. We’re only 9 months into the start of this rebuild. It’s still early.

9 months in? Give it time? The White Sox are 102-222 in the last two years. This isn't a video game simulation, the White Sox are destroying their credibility throughout all of baseball.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

9 months in? Give it time? The White Sox are 102-222 in the last two years. This isn't a video game simulation, the White Sox are destroying their credibility throughout all of baseball.

Yes, re: this current rebuild it is still early.

[WestEddy]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I never said it would never work. I'm saying don't lie about what you're selling.

This rebuild is not in a better position than the last one was. Does that mean this one can't turn out better? Of course not; I understand the laws of probability. That said, don't try and tell people who are rightfully hesitant and reluctant that it's different.

The average MLB tenure for a pitcher, since 2005, is 2.85 years. A starter is slightly higher. I'd take the under on both of them easily.

In retrospect, we were missing one half of the acquisition engine on the international side. Paddy is out. We may not do better, but I think it would be hard to do worse than zero. 

Shirley seems to be better at the draft than Hostetler was. Also, a big factor in bad 1st round drafts seems to have left with Haber, KW and Hahn leaving, not barging into the war room to hijack the 1st round pick. KW also seems to have been a major factor in the dysfunction of the organization, what with clubhouse spies, friction with the managers and GM, getting into media feuds with players, etc. 

There also used to be a hesitance to invest in development. KW would trade guys before they got too old to be a bust. At least now, Getz is trying to get the people in place to develop the players we draft. 

So, the entire organization may not be in a better place, but it is in a different place. Previous rebuilds failing have no influence on this current rebuild. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

The Orioles were 131-253 in the first 3 seasons under Mike Elias as GM. Over a 4 year period from 2018-2021 they were 178-368. It takes time for a deep rebuild to turnaround even when you supposedly have one of the best GMs in the sport.

[southsider2k5]

24 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

And he identified this as a hole and revamped the system. People learn. They grow. 

I can't just buy that conveniently he was the only one in this organization who knew what he was doing, couldn't do anything to fix it, but now can fix everything without any issue.  That's ridiculously pollyanna. 

[TaylorStSox]

18 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

9 months in? Give it time? The White Sox are 102-222 in the last two years. This isn't a video game simulation, the White Sox are destroying their credibility throughout all of baseball.

Destroying their credibility? What does that even mean?