Elias goes with Sugano over a trade or massive FA contract for a starter...

[caulfield12]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43001588/orioles-tomoyuki-sugano-agree-1-year-13m

 

Seems that their contention window is all about "year to year flexibility," with the exception being the three year deal for Tyler O'Neill at around $50 million.

 

Baltimore has canvassed the free agent market for pitching this winter, looking to solidify its rotation with Corbin Burnes reaching free agency and right-handers Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells returning from reconstructive elbow surgeries. The Orioles head into 2025 after back-to-back postseason appearances with a rotation that includes Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and now Sugano.

Baltimore's efforts to re-sign Burnes have not abated, sources said, but the price is expected to land well beyond Chris Davis' $161 million contract -- the largest free agent deal in franchise history. The Orioles were purchased by private equity titan David Rubenstein in August after six consecutive seasons in which the team's Opening Day payroll ranked 26th or lower among MLB's 30 teams.

 

Orioles are somewhere in the vicinity of a $110 million payroll right now.

Edited December 17 by caulfield12

[Lip Man 1]

43 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43001588/orioles-tomoyuki-sugano-agree-1-year-13m

 

Seems that their contention window is all about "year to year flexibility," with the exception being the three year deal for Tyler O'Neill at around $50 million.

 

Baltimore has canvassed the free agent market for pitching this winter, looking to solidify its rotation with Corbin Burnes reaching free agency and right-handers Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells returning from reconstructive elbow surgeries. The Orioles head into 2025 after back-to-back postseason appearances with a rotation that includes Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and now Sugano.

Baltimore's efforts to re-sign Burnes have not abated, sources said, but the price is expected to land well beyond Chris Davis' $161 million contract -- the largest free agent deal in franchise history. The Orioles were purchased by private equity titan David Rubenstein in August after six consecutive seasons in which the team's Opening Day payroll ranked 26th or lower among MLB's 30 teams.

 

Orioles are somewhere in the vicinity of a $110 million payroll right now.

I understand that Burnes would like to sign with the Giants if they'll come up with the money. Don't know if he is from the West Coast or not. 

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I understand that Burnes would like to sign with the Giants if they'll come up with the money. Don't know if he is from the West Coast or not. 

Draft: Drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 4th round of the 2016 MLB June Amateur Draft from Saint Mary's College of California (Moraga, CA).

High School: Centennial HS (Bakersfield, CA)

School: Saint Mary's College of California (Moraga, CA)

 

Pretty sure Bakersfield was even a Giants' farm team in the California League, too.  Dodgers as well.

Edited December 17 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

"Sugano enters his 13th season and will play in a Camden Yards that will be less pitcher-friendly than last season. The Orioles will move the left-field wall, where home runs often went to die, by as much as 20 feet in some places. Sugano has been a heavy groundball pitcher for most of his career and induced 51.1% ground balls this year."

[nrockway]

Pretty clever. He'd probably get an Imanaga type contract if he came over before he's 35, I might've thought the Sox could be in on this type of signing. Does his groundball-producing "stuff" and his 92mph fastball translate to the MLB? I wondered that about Imanaga and he was excellent, though trending the wrong direction after an incredible start to the season. Maybe the 15-year vet with 1900 IP takes a step back though.

[almagest]

1 hour ago, nrockway said:

Pretty clever. He'd probably get an Imanaga type contract if he came over before he's 35, I might've thought the Sox could be in on this type of signing. Does his groundball-producing "stuff" and his 92mph fastball translate to the MLB? I wondered that about Imanaga and he was excellent, though trending the wrong direction after an incredible start to the season. Maybe the 15-year vet with 1900 IP takes a step back though.

With his age and the difference in MLB vs NPB? I don't see him being very successful -  probably a 4 or 5 at best. The pitchers that translate well from NPB have elite stuff. This feels more like a successful AAA journeyman getting his shot finally.

[nrockway]

32 minutes ago, almagest said:

With his age and the difference in MLB vs NPB? I don't see him being very successful -  probably a 4 or 5 at best. The pitchers that translate well from NPB have elite stuff. This feels more like a successful AAA journeyman getting his shot finally.

That's my thinking too, but I think he comps a little bit to Imanaga and his (although flyball heavy) 92 MPH fastball in this regard. I didn't think Imanaga would be any good for that reason, that he was already giving up a lot of homers and it was only going to be worse facing MLB players at Wrigley. His HR/9 was pretty bad but the rest of his peripherals were great. Fewer walks than in NPB, similar K rate. However, Imanaga struck out 9.4 batters per 9 in NPB compared to 7.7 for Sugano. Sugano is also old and his past couple seasons have been around ~6. That seems fairly significant and might suggest he won't be fooling MLB players. Senga and Yamamoto actually improved on their K rate in the MLB, but then they already had the 'big stuff' reputations and were striking out 9+ guys per 9, but they are also in their athletic primes. 

if I was an O's fan, I'd probably prefer Corbin Burnes. Doesn't seem like a great fit for them, they need star pitching, seems like a better fit for a team that might want to dangle him at the trade deadline a la Fedde. But yeah I think what you say is right, a pretty good 4 or 5 that might turn out to be a little bit better. I'm excited to watch him pitch.

Edited December 17 by nrockway

[almagest]

4 minutes ago, nrockway said:

That's my thinking too, but I think he comps a little bit to Imanaga and his (although flyball heavy) 92 MPH fastball in this regard. I didn't think Imanaga would be any good for that reason, that he was already giving up a lot of homers and it was only going to be worse facing MLB players at Wrigley. His HR/9 was pretty bad but the rest of his peripherals were great. Fewer walks than in NPB, similar K rate. However, Imanaga struck out 9.4 batters per 9 in NPB compared to 7.7 for Sugano. Sugano is also old and his past couple seasons have been around ~6. That seems fairly significant and might suggest he won't be fooling MLB players. Senga and Yamamoto actually improved on their K rate in the MLB, but then they already had the 'big stuff' reputations and were striking out 9+ guys per 9, but they are also in their athletic primes. 

if I was an O's fan, I'd probably prefer Corbin Burnes. Doesn't seem like a great fit for them, they need star pitching, seems like a better fit for a team that might want to dangle him at the trade deadline a la Fedde. But yeah I think what you say is right, a pretty good 4 or 5 that might turn out to be a little bit better. I'm excited to watch him pitch.

Yeah, Imanaga's stuff played up because his fastball is really deceptive and he has good command. He was also good at making adjustments once teams started catching on. Maybe Sugano's offspeed plays up the same way, but I doubt it. If this is the best pitching acquisition the Orioles make they're in trouble.

[caulfield12]

8 hours ago, nrockway said:

That's my thinking too, but I think he comps a little bit to Imanaga and his (although flyball heavy) 92 MPH fastball in this regard. I didn't think Imanaga would be any good for that reason, that he was already giving up a lot of homers and it was only going to be worse facing MLB players at Wrigley. His HR/9 was pretty bad but the rest of his peripherals were great. Fewer walks than in NPB, similar K rate. However, Imanaga struck out 9.4 batters per 9 in NPB compared to 7.7 for Sugano. Sugano is also old and his past couple seasons have been around ~6. That seems fairly significant and might suggest he won't be fooling MLB players. Senga and Yamamoto actually improved on their K rate in the MLB, but then they already had the 'big stuff' reputations and were striking out 9+ guys per 9, but they are also in their athletic primes. 

if I was an O's fan, I'd probably prefer Corbin Burnes. Doesn't seem like a great fit for them, they need star pitching, seems like a better fit for a team that might want to dangle him at the trade deadline a la Fedde. But yeah I think what you say is right, a pretty good 4 or 5 that might turn out to be a little bit better. I'm excited to watch him pitch.

They seem petrified by past experience with the Chris Davis FA contract to go over or near the $200 million contract mark...fwiw.

[WhiteSox2023]

25 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They seem petrified by past experience with the Chris Davis FA contract to go over or near the $200 million contract mark...fwiw.

Meanwhile, Jerry has flashback nightmares about giving Benintendi $75 million.

The Orioles will probably sign/trade for one more starter.