Draft Kings sets Sox O/U at 49.5 wins

[WestEddy]

16 minutes ago, T R U said:

Mike Tauchman being a complementary player on a good team is not the same as Mike Tauchman being arguably your best hitter sans Robert. 

I think its ridiculous to even suggest the rotation is improved with the loss of Crochet. Who is your starting 5 right now?

This is a worse team than last years team right now, I still haven't seen anyone provide any reasoning why they will be better other than hopes and dreams.

Ridiculous. Again, a random, replacement level team should win about 48 games. I can't stop you from believing that the 2025 team will win even less than 41 games, but that team was so incredibly unlucky. Do you think the 2024 White Sox were the worst, by far, assembly of players in the modern history of the game? Yet they set the record for losses. 

It's not a stretch to say that even with some regression, this is a 48 win team. 

[WhiteSox2023]

10 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Ridiculous. Again, a random, replacement level team should win about 48 games. I can't stop you from believing that the 2025 team will win even less than 41 games, but that team was so incredibly unlucky. Do you think the 2024 White Sox were the worst, by far, assembly of players in the modern history of the game? Yet they set the record for losses. 

It's not a stretch to say that even with some regression, this is a 48 win team. 

Last year’s team was unlucky now?  Huh?

Getz had an absolutely putrid offseason other than the Fedde signing and people were calling him out for it in real-time last year.

Edited Thursday at 08:31 PM by WhiteSox2023

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Ridiculous. Again, a random, replacement level team should win about 48 games. I can't stop you from believing that the 2025 team will win even less than 41 games, but that team was so incredibly unlucky. Do you think the 2024 White Sox were the worst, by far, assembly of players in the modern history of the game? Yet they set the record for losses. 

It's not a stretch to say that even with some regression, this is a 48 win team. 

The White Sox's pythagorean record last year based on runs scored/allowed was 48-114. They were 7 games worse than that and underplayed their projected record by the biggest amount in baseball. 

[Big Hurtin]

On 12/18/2024 at 11:55 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d take the over at the moment.

 

On 12/18/2024 at 11:59 AM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Nah they'll go over. It's really hard to be that bad again. 

 

On 12/18/2024 at 12:44 PM, SkokieSox said:

Over 

 

On 12/18/2024 at 1:16 PM, Buehrle>Wood said:

I think i would take the over. An even remotely competent bullpen, which can be assembled by pure luck, will beat it.

[Chicago White Sox]

38 minutes ago, T R U said:

Mike Tauchman being a complementary player on a good team is not the same as Mike Tauchman being arguably your best hitter sans Robert. 

I think its ridiculous to even suggest the rotation is improved with the loss of Crochet. Who is your starting 5 right now?

This is a worse team than last years team right now, I still haven't seen anyone provide any reasoning why they will be better other than hopes and dreams.

I don’t see how the positional group could be viewed as being worse than the one that put up -6.4 of fWAR last year.  Robert will almost certainly be better.  Tauchman/Slater is replacing a RF group that put up -2.1 fWAR.  The catching group will likely be improved vs. the one that put -2.4 fWAR.  We have a ton of options for 3B & 2B that project to be second division regulars.  And gun to head, Vaughn should be a little bit better than last year.  Hopefully Benintendi will also be a little bit better as well.

Again, this will be a bad positional group, but last year was terrible with dudes called up who were well below replacement level.

[Dick Allen]

2 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Crochet, Fedde and Flexen produced about 11 bWAR over 83 starts (427 IP). Cannon, Martin, Burke, Thorpe and Bryce Wilson were good for about 5 bWAR in 52 starts (341 IP). It doesn't really work to triple the latter numbers and say we're good for 15 bWAR in 156 starts. I think the new 5 can put up at least as much production as last year's starting rotation, even throwing in Clevenger, Soroka and Nastrini's travails. The top starters aren't as good as Crochet and Fedde, and the back end won't be as bad as Soroka, Clevenger and Nastrini. 

I would also expect Baldwin, Ramos, Vargas, Sosa, and Meidroth to put up a little more offense than the trio of Nicky, DeJong and the clown car of AAA utility infielders. Why? Growth. Higher ceilings. Regression to the mean. That alone, like the "Chicago White Sox" guy pointed out a short while ago, a team of replacement level players (AAAA) would be expected to win about 48 games. I think the top 4 of our rotation are somewhere between replacement and average ML player (0-2 WAR). 

Last year's team was uniquely bad. That's why they set the record for losses. 

You were mad at the people who said before the 2024 season started they could set the record for losses. Said is was just as ridiculous as anyone who thought they could get hot and win a WS. Odds are against this level of futility again, but never say never.  The funny thing is, if they go 55-107 some will probably be thrilled with the “improvement”.

 

 

 

say never.

[almagest]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I don’t see how the positional group could be viewed as being worse than the one that put up -6.4 of fWAR last year.  Robert will almost certainly be better.  Tauchman/Slater is replacing a RF group that put up -2.1 fWAR.  The catching group will likely be improved vs. the one that put -2.4 fWAR.  We have a ton of options for 3B & 2B that project to be second division regulars.  And gun to head, Vaughn should be a little bit better than last year.  Hopefully Benintendi will also be a little bit better as well.

Again, this will be a bad positional group, but last year was terrible with dudes called up who were well below replacement level.

Plus, every position player who carried over from 2023 regressed or stagnated. Really just the confluence of every possible thing going wrong.

[WestEddy]

8 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

You were mad at the people who said before the 2024 season started they could set the record for losses. Said is was just as ridiculous as anyone who thought they could get hot and win a WS. Odds are against this level of futility again, but never say never.  The funny thing is, if they go 55-107 some will probably be thrilled with the “improvement”.

 

 

 

say never.

Mad? 

2-3 teams are tanking and try to be bad every season. Yet, it's been 20 years since the last time somebody even approached this record. It is rare. 

[WestEddy]

9 minutes ago, almagest said:

Plus, every position player who carried over from 2023 regressed or stagnated. Really just the confluence of every possible thing going wrong.

Yes. Unlucky. 

[Dick Allen]

12 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Mad? 

2-3 teams are tanking and try to be bad every season. Yet, it's been 20 years since the last time somebody even approached this record. It is rare. 

Yeah, you were mad anyone would consider it. I didn’t, but those who did were correct.

[southsider2k5]

36 minutes ago, almagest said:

Plus, every position player who carried over from 2023 regressed or stagnated. Really just the confluence of every possible thing going wrong.

When literally everything goes wrong like that it tells me that the problems were bigger than just the players.

[Lip Man 1]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

When literally everything goes wrong like that it tells me that the problems were bigger than just the players.

Exactly, starting at the very top. 

[WhiteSox2023]

23 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

When literally everything goes wrong like that it tells me that the problems were bigger than just the players.

10 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Exactly, starting at the very top. 

Yes, a never ending stream of terrible offseason transactions and in-season roster decisions.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Exactly, starting at the very top. 

In any given year you expect some guys to be better than their norms and some others to be worse.  Even as a team you can have years where there are more bad years than you expect, but ever since the TLR hire, the entire franchise has been on a creep backwards.  I am not convinced this is just a "bad luck" thing.  I don't think I would bet on the under, but I am sure not ready to bet on the over either.

[Falstaff]

I am pushing the chips all in on 63 wins.

[Falstaff]

As bad as the Sox are I still don't loathe them like I loathe the Bears. JR might be bad but he is nowhere near as bad as the McCaskey's.

[Tnetennba]

3 hours ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Last year’s team was unlucky now?  Huh?

Getz had an absolutely putrid offseason other than the Fedde signing and people were calling him out for it in real-time last year.

They were lucky to *only* finish at 121 losses. The Sox were 33-115 on Sept 13th, and finished 8-6 thanks to playing Oak, LAA twice, at a Detroit team that punted their final two games.

 

[Texsox]

I'll be in Illinois next week. I'll take the over in a heartbeat. 

[T R U]

7 hours ago, WestEddy said:

Ridiculous. Again, a random, replacement level team should win about 48 games. I can't stop you from believing that the 2025 team will win even less than 41 games, but that team was so incredibly unlucky. Do you think the 2024 White Sox were the worst, by far, assembly of players in the modern history of the game? Yet they set the record for losses. 

It's not a stretch to say that even with some regression, this is a 48 win team. 

I don’t think they’ll win less than 41 games but they certainly haven’t done anything that makes me think they win 50+ games. Like I said, this roster is just as shitty as last seasons. 
 

[WestEddy]

I've only really paid attention to the actual win total for this convo. Twitter "influencers" are talking about "free money" and all. To me, free money would be betting $10 for a chance to win $1k. This is stupid. Why would anybody on Earth take the chance of losing $1k just to prove they're right about a win total? And the fact that they slap caps on anybody who is actually good at this makes it practically criminal. Sports betting is a tax on the stupid. 

 

Had to get a least a dime before they move it...hoping to get more #WhiteSox OVER 49.5 pic.twitter.com/0UhMIeh1F7

— BeefLoaf🥩 (@MrDelicious13) December 19, 2024

 

[southsider2k5]

9 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I've only really paid attention to the actual win total for this convo. Twitter "influencers" are talking about "free money" and all. To me, free money would be betting $10 for a chance to win $1k. This is stupid. Why would anybody on Earth take the chance of losing $1k just to prove they're right about a win total? And the fact that they slap caps on anybody who is actually good at this makes it practically criminal. Sports betting is a tax on the stupid. 

 

 

Not to mention the betting company gets to sit on your $1000 interest free for the next 9+ months.

[WestEddy]

7 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Not to mention the betting company gets to sit on your $1000 interest free for the next 9+ months.

Plus the vig if they did their job setting the line right. 

[FloydBannister1983]

On 12/18/2024 at 11:47 AM, southsider2k5 said:

5 other seasons since 1960 have ended with a team in the 40's for wins besides the White Sox last year.  No team has ever done it back to back.  Then again, no team had ever lost 121 games in one season either,  so who knows.

I do wonder how many of those teams traded their best pitcher in the offseason and were shopping their best hitter.  I think we may be in uncharted territory.

[FloydBannister1983]

On 12/18/2024 at 12:21 PM, WBWSF said:

It seems like ownership/management are losing games on purpose.

But the thing is that in over a hundred years even when teams have tried to lose they were never able to lose that many games.

[FloydBannister1983]

On 12/18/2024 at 3:34 PM, sin city sox fan said:

That's an easy under. Might not win 30 in 2025.

You picked right it last year.