Draft Kings sets Sox O/U at 49.5 wins

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm not seeing any reason to take the over. We've signed nobody and lost our best player. Who exactly is a big bounce back contender? We're utter trash. Chicago sports is pathetic.

Steamer projects our positional group to put up 14.3 fWAR next year.  That would have ranked 23rd overall last year, so still in the bottom 25% of teams. However, it does reflect a 20.6 win improvement over the -6.3 fWAR we got out of our positional group last year.  I keep seeing people saying that this roster is worse than last year, but I really doubt that is the case.  Last year’s group was the 10th least productive in baseball history per Fangraphs.  Like just getting replacement production at C, 3B, & RF is worth nearly seven wins alone.  And beyond that, there are plenty of rebound candidates, Robert being the biggest and most likely one even if he suffers through some injuries.

The pitching staff is definitely worse on paper and is only projected for 5.7 fWAR next year.  That would have ranked 29th in all of baseball last year and reflects a 4.1 win decrease from this past season for us.  When combined with the positional group, that’s a 16.5 fWAR improvement YoY despite the loss of Crochet and Fedde and no meaningful external additions.  I personally think the positional group projections are too optimistic, but again, just replacing the guys who had no business being on a major league roster with slightly above replacement level talent wil make a huge difference.

Gun to my head right now, I think this team wins 55+ games next year.  Losing Robert would change that for me, but I think a 49.5 O/U is an absolutely absurd line and everyone should be pumping the over because it’s really fucking hard to win less than 50 games in a season.

[WestEddy]

5 minutes ago, T R U said:

I don't understand your trolling here. Shane Drohan was a Rule 5 draft pick who threw a whole 9 innings for the White Sox minor leagues. You included him in your list of "legit" pitching prospects we have. 

You claimed Matthew Thompson wasn't a prospect, I corrected you because you were wrong. Please note I never said he was legit or a top prospect, only that a 23 year old in AA should be considered prospect.

Shouldn't you be lurking for SS2K5 posts to argue over?

Dude, relax. I'm not trolling you. I was just looking through the old Bailey Horn thread, and saw your comment, and figured it was notable, considering your reply on Saturday. If Matt Thompson's a "prospect", then so was Drohan. 

And, by "legitimate" I didn't mean "this dude will dominate!!!", more like, "yes, this guy will start games for the parent club". 

At the point Thompson was traded, he was no longer a "prospect" in the sense that he was a prospective major league starter. He was a depth arm. Maybe the Cubs run into a jam, and Thompson finds himself sitting in a bullpen for a few weeks, but I really think he's at his ceiling. 

I hope you're enjoying the holidays. 

[T R U]

2 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Dude, relax. I'm not trolling you. I was just looking through the old Bailey Horn thread, and saw your comment, and figured it was notable, considering your reply on Saturday. If Matt Thompson's a "prospect", then so was Drohan. 

And, by "legitimate" I didn't mean "this dude will dominate!!!", more like, "yes, this guy will start games for the parent club". 

At the point Thompson was traded, he was no longer a "prospect" in the sense that he was a prospective major league starter. He was a depth arm. Maybe the Cubs run into a jam, and Thompson finds himself sitting in a bullpen for a few weeks, but I really think he's at his ceiling. 

I hope you're enjoying the holidays. 

Yes, you are correct you could have considered Shane Drohan a prospect. The difference here is you included him on your list of good young SP prospects we have, and literally 7 days after your post the White Sox cut him. 

[WestEddy]

15 minutes ago, T R U said:

Yes, you are correct you could have considered Shane Drohan a prospect. The difference here is you included him on your list of good young SP prospects we have, and literally 7 days after your post the White Sox cut him. 

He was a Rule 5, so they were looking at having to roster him on the big league club, so yeah, with what looked like a much longer recuperation, they offered him back to the Red Sox. 

You are right. I did add him to a list of legitimate stating pitching prospects. I'm pretty sure that Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin and Sean Burke were on that list, also. 

[chitownsportsfan]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Steamer projects our positional group to put up 14.3 fWAR next year.  That would have ranked 23rd overall last year, so still in the bottom 25% of teams. However, it does reflect a 20.6 win improvement over the -6.3 fWAR we got out of our positional group last year.  I keep seeing people saying that this roster is worse than last year, but I really doubt that is the case.  Last year’s group was the 10th least productive in baseball history per Fangraphs.  Like just getting replacement production at C, 3B, & RF is worth nearly seven wins alone.  And beyond that, there are plenty of rebound candidates, Robert being the biggest and most likely one even if he suffers through some injuries.

The pitching staff is definitely worse on paper and is only projected for 5.7 fWAR next year.  That would have ranked 29th in all of baseball last year and reflects a 4.1 win decrease from this past season for us.  When combined with the positional group, that’s a 16.5 fWAR improvement YoY despite the loss of Crochet and Fedde and no meaningful external additions.  I personally think the positional group projections are too optimistic, but again, just replacing the guys who had no business being on a major league roster with slightly above replacement level talent wil make a huge difference.

Gun to my head right now, I think this team wins 55+ games next year.  Losing Robert would change that for me, but I think a 49.5 O/U is an absolutely absurd line and everyone should be pumping the over because it’s really fucking hard to win less than 50 games in a season.

Steamer is weighted towards old performance too much for my liking. We'll see what ZIPS says. We finished with negative 6.3 fWAR last year. I don't see us magically gaining 20 fWAR in regression to the "mean". The mean has changed and the true talent of guys like Robert and Benintendi has dropped.

Just one example, Steamer thinks Andrew Vaughn is a 1.2 fWAR player. Now I would take the under on that next year. Dude has been worth -.5 fWAR over his career.

[southsider2k5]

52 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

They gave 38 starts to really bad pitchers last year, and 44 to Thorpe, Cannon (after his 2nd promotion), Burke, Martin and Ky Bush. 

You're not really "losing" 8 wins between Fedde and Crochet. If they're replaced by, say, production that's on the level of Flexen, you're losing about 2.5 wins for each slot. I don't think it's a reach to make up 2-2.5 wins just by replacing the negative production in those 38 starts with one of their young starters. 

And just by positive regression on offense, you're probably making up the rest. 

The odds are near 100% that a significant amount of those guys will fail, and fail hard, very similar to last year.  They all are so young, and development isn't certain, nor linear.  

[chitownsportsfan]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The odds are near 100% that a significant amount of those guys will fail, and fail hard, very similar to last year.  They all are so young, and development isn't certain, nor linear.  

And we have the last two decades of White Sox institutional failure weighing everything down. We ain't exactly known as a draft and develop franchise.

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Steamer is weighted towards old performance too much for my liking. We'll see what ZIPS says. We finished with negative 6.3 fWAR last year. I don't see us magically gaining 20 fWAR in regression to the "mean". The mean has changed and the true talent of guys like Robert and Benintendi has dropped.

Just one example, Steamer thinks Andrew Vaughn is a 1.2 fWAR player. Now I would take the under on that next year. Dude has been worth -.5 fWAR over his career.

What was the steamer projection for White Sox position players last year?

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

What was the steamer projection for White Sox position players last year?

ZIPS, which is usually weighted a bit more conservatively, had them at 14! 😂

Couldn't find an easy STEAMER projection.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

ZIPS, which is usually weighted a bit more conservatively, had them at 14! 😂

Couldn't find an easy STEAMER projection.

So like they overprojected by 20, and the projection for this year is an improvement of 20. correct?

 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Steamer is weighted towards old performance too much for my liking. We'll see what ZIPS says. We finished with negative 6.3 fWAR last year. I don't see us magically gaining 20 fWAR in regression to the "mean". The mean has changed and the true talent of guys like Robert and Benintendi has dropped.

Just one example, Steamer thinks Andrew Vaughn is a 1.2 fWAR player. Now I would take the under on that next year. Dude has been worth -.5 fWAR over his career.

I said I think those projections are too optimistic, but the point I’m trying to make is we have better options to fill out a lineup card than we did last season.  A Tauchman / Slater platoon isn’t sexy, but it’s leagues better than playing a 1B out there and a OF who physically can’t impact a baseball at all.  Catcher will be better because no one can be worse than Maldonado was last year.

As for Vaughn, I agree that 1.2 fWAR feels like a stretch, but his production prior  to last year is impacted by being forced into the OF.  And last year, he underperformed his xwOBA by 17 points.  I don’t think a 1 win type season is completely impossible for him and would still be pretty bad overall.

[WhiteSox2023]

17 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I said I think those projections are too optimistic, but the point I’m trying to make is we have better options to fill out a lineup card than we did last season.  A Tauchman / Slater platoon isn’t sexy, but it’s leagues better than playing a 1B out there and a OF who physically can’t impact a baseball at all.  Catcher will be better because no one can be worse than Maldonado was last year.

As for Vaughn, I agree that 1.2 fWAR feels like a stretch, but his production prior  to last year is impacted by being forced into the OF.  And last year, he underperformed his xwOBA by 17 points.  I don’t think a 1 win type season is completely impossible for him and would still be pretty bad overall.

Never bet on the White Sox.  Haven’t you learned anything being a Sox fan all these years?  🤣

[ptatc]

6 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Never bet on the White Sox.  Haven’t you learned anything being a Sox fan all these years?  🤣

I made a good bit of money betting on them last year. Of course is was to lose each game.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I made a good bit of money betting on them last year. Of course is was to lose each game.

I did well betting on their bullpen to lose games, and picking HR props for who would homer against them.

[Bob Sacamano]

19 minutes ago, ptatc said:

I made a good bit of money betting on them last year. Of course is was to lose each game.

Same. Runlines and alternate runlines

[ptatc]

27 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I did well betting on their bullpen to lose games, and picking HR props for who would homer against them.

Those did well too. Got good odds early in the year when they had a lead in the 7th.

[Bob Sacamano]

4 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Those did well too. Got good odds early in the year when they had a lead in the 7th.

So many games they would go up a few runs early and still weren’t favorites to win.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

As for Vaughn, I agree that 1.2 fWAR feels like a stretch, but his production prior  to last year is impacted by being forced into the OF.  And last year, he underperformed his xwOBA by 17 points.  I don’t think a 1 win type season is completely impossible for him and would still be pretty bad overall.

I would just like to point out that Andrew Vaughn was moved out of the outfield for a full season, actually got worse, and his performance as an outfielder still is being cited to excuse him.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I would just like to point out that Andrew Vaughn was moved out of the outfield for a full season, actually got worse, and his performance as an outfielder still is being cited to excuse him.

He was a negative fWAR player in 2022 entirely due to being forced into the OF half his games and being by the far worst defensive OF in the game.  He moved out of the OF in 2023 and was at least above replacement level.  His xwOBA last year was higher than it was in both 2022 & 2023 when he was an above league average hitter.  All of this is fact based and supports the key point I was making, which is that a positive fWAR projection for him is justified.  I know you get off on trying to own people for nitpicky things, but this is really taking the cake.

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He was a negative fWAR player in 2022 entirely due to being forced into the OF half his games and being by the far worst defensive OF in the game.  He moved out of the OF in 2023 and was at least above replacement level.  His xwOBA last year was higher than it was in both 2022 & 2023 when he was an above league average hitter.  All of this is fact based and supports the key point I was making, which is that a positive fWAR projection for him is justified.  I know you get off on trying to own people for nitpicky things, but this is really taking the cake.

Aw come on man…I knew what you were saying, but literally, Vaughn has not been an OF for a year and it’s still an excuse for him!! Will we ever stop making excuses for the guy? 

[Big Hurtin]

One thing I can see from reading this thread is that JR is an expert fisherman.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Aw come on man…I knew what you were saying, but literally, Vaughn has not been an OF for a year and it’s still an excuse for him!! Will we ever stop making excuses for the guy? 

It’s an excuse for him when someone cites his career production.  And I am not a Vaughn defender, I wanted to non-tender him.  Me saying he’s likely a 0.5 win player is not really strong indictment of him.  I just think he’s one of many players who likely be better next year…even if still a very bad regular.

[chitownsportsfan]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He was a negative fWAR player in 2022 entirely due to being forced into the OF half his games and being by the far worst defensive OF in the game.  He moved out of the OF in 2023 and was at least above replacement level.  His xwOBA last year was higher than it was in both 2022 & 2023 when he was an above league average hitter.  All of this is fact based and supports the key point I was making, which is that a positive fWAR projection for him is justified.  I know you get off on trying to own people for nitpicky things, but this is really taking the cake.

The "slugger" hit for a wRC+ of 113 in the OF. He's below 100 at 1B. Maybe the "slugger" should pickup that OF glove again. He's a staggering -70 (-7 WAR roughly) runs below average as a "fielder". 

But a DH that hits league average isn't a MLB player. I'm not even really arguing with you. I just can't stand this bum. We have a lot of bums.

Edited December 28, 2024 by chitownsportsfan

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The "slugger" hit for a wRC+ of 113 in the OF. He's below 100 at 1B. Maybe the "slugger" should pickup that OF glove again. He's a staggering -70 (-7 WAR roughly) runs below average as a "fielder". 

But a DH that hits league average isn't a MLB player. I'm not even really arguing with you. I just can't stand this bum. We have a lot of bums.

He was literally the worst defensive OF in baseball and by wide margin.  I put this table together at some point during the of 2022, but he was leagues worse the next worst guy (who happened to be Gavin Sheets).

I know your comment was in just, but I do think it’s important just negative his OF glove and how insane it was that Hahn kept putting him out there.

 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

He was literally the worst defensive OF in baseball and by wide margin.  I put this table together at some point during the of 2022, but he was leagues worse the next worst guy (who happened to be Gavin Sheets).

I know your comment was in just, but I do think it’s important just negative his OF glove and how insane it was that Hahn kept putting him out there.

 

let's not bury the lede there in your presentation councilor: Gavin sheets 2nd to last. He didn't just "happen to be there" this dumbfuck org put him there, quite literally! 

Edited December 28, 2024 by chitownsportsfan