Colson Montgomery - How long until he proves he is a MLB shortstop?

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yes....leave him there until he hits 900 plus for at least 6-8 weeks.

Hell I will take 800+ for now. 

[caulfield12]

41 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Hell I will take 800+ for now. 

Charlotte for half your home games...850-925 should be the equivalent of roughly 750-800 at Birmingham.

[tray]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I have zero problems with him playing SS for a couple years until we reach a point where he’s unplayable there. I’m fine with that for now. 

I have much bigger problems rushing him up to the big leagues if he doesn’t demolish AAA pitching. If he can’t hit, he won’t be a big leaguer. If he hits enough, there will be a spot for him. The guy we saw last year was not a big leaguer, so all I ask is that he shows me he’s ready in AAA before he gets called up.

Setting aside the issue about whether he can stick at SS, his offensive numbers are a concern.  e.g, at Charlotte in 2024 after 485 ABs he was hitting .214 with a .329 OBP. Anyway, if he doesn't figure into the WSox plans for 2025,  there are other players that might - Andre Lipcius (3b), Lenyn Sosa (SS) Chase Meidroth (2B) Kyle Teel (Catcher) and Braden Montgomery (RF).  That plus Vaughn and Lenyn Sosa should be better.

 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, tray said:

Setting aside the issue about whether he can stick at SS, his offensive numbers are a concern.  e.g, at Charlotte in 2024 after 485 ABs he was hitting .214 with a .329 OBP. Anyway, if he doesn't figure into the WSox plans for 2025,  there are other players that might - Andre Lipcius (3b), Lenyn Sosa (SS) Chase Meidroth (2B) Kyle Teel (Catcher) and Braden Montgomery (RF).  That plus Vaughn and Lenyn Sosa should be better.

 

Braden Montgomery is going to take 2 1/2 years to get to the majors in all likelihood....especially since he missed his first short season assignment due to injury.

Starts 2025 in High A if he's fully recovered...then AA/AAA in 2026 and hopefully starting RF in Chicago, somewhere in Year 3.

[tray]

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Braden Montgomery is going to take 2 1/2 years to get to the majors in all likelihood....especially since he missed his first short season assignment due to injury.

Starts 2025 in High A if he's fully recovered...then AA/AAA in 2026 and hopefully starting RF in Chicago, somewhere in Year 3.

I hope you are wrong about that. He will be 22 in April and some think he will be here before Year 3.

 

[oldsox]

He hides his disappointment very well.

[46DidIt]

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Charlotte for half your home games...850-925 should be the equivalent of roughly 750-800 at Birmingham.

So the effect at Charlotte is good for a difference of 200-250 ops at home, in your estimation? Seems kinda high to me

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, 46DidIt said:

So the effect at Charlotte is good for a difference of 200-250 ops at home, in your estimation? Seems kinda high to me

Just look at how that stadium in Birmingham has historically suppressed numbers while Charlotte has provided the  almost opposite in flat ing counter point...

[southsider2k5]

12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Braden Montgomery is going to take 2 1/2 years to get to the majors in all likelihood....especially since he missed his first short season assignment due to injury.

Starts 2025 in High A if he's fully recovered...then AA/AAA in 2026 and hopefully starting RF in Chicago, somewhere in Year 3.

One of the lessons of the last decade it would be nice if the White Sox would learn it would be to quit rushing guys as a make up for horrible player development.

[tray]

6 hours ago, oldsox said:

He hides his disappointment very well.

OTOH, he will be the toast of the town if he fulfills Sox fans desire for a legitimate RFer. Chicago is a welcoming city and a beautiful one. Welcome Braden.

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

One of the lessons of the last decade it would be nice if the White Sox would learn it would be to quit rushing guys as a make up for horrible player development.

I remember back in the 90s asserting 4-5 years for a high schooler and at least 3-4 years for a power conference position player was pretty much the norm.  The White Sox seem to have cut that time table in half as they continuously rush to plug holes in the big league roster.

At any rate, someone was thinking that Braden could possibly be debuting for the Sox as early as next season.

[Balta1701]

56 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I remember back in the 90s asserting 4-5 years for a high schooler and at least 3-4 years for a power conference position player was pretty much the norm.  The White Sox seem to have cut that time table in half as they continuously rush to plug holes in the big league roster.

At any rate, someone was thinking that Braden could possibly be debuting for the Sox as early as next season.

See I’m supposed to not confuse the Montgomeries when people just randomly switch in threads. 

Anyway, simple rule - guys should even callups. 

Could we see Braden this year? High draft pick but didn’t see any time last year because of injury. If he got to BHam early in the season and torched it with a .975 OPS or something like that for 10-12 weeks, then why not? If you score a Juan Soto what’s the point of burying him in the minors for longer?

It’s probably not likely coming back from injury but with zero evidence of what he’s got, anything’s possible. 

Remarkably, the same rule works for Colson. Earn his call up and he can come up. It’s a simple concept, but it would let everyone understand where they are and what they need to do to move up.

[WestEddy]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

See I’m supposed to not confuse the Montgomeries when people just randomly switch in threads. 

Anyway, simple rule - guys should even callups. 

Could we see Braden this year? High draft pick but didn’t see any time last year because of injury. If he got to BHam early in the season and torched it with a .975 OPS or something like that for 10-12 weeks, then why not? If you score a Juan Soto what’s the point of burying him in the minors for longer?

It’s probably not likely coming back from injury but with zero evidence of what he’s got, anything’s possible. 

Remarkably, the same rule works for Colson. Earn his call up and he can come up. It’s a simple concept, but it would let everyone understand where they are and what they need to do to move up.

I would start B. Monty in K. Napolis, and let him earn his way up to B. Ham by the end of 2025. A June arrival in 2026 would work perfectly for B. Monty. A June arrival in 2025 would work for C. Monty. 

[Balta1701]

24 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

I would start B. Monty in K. Napolis, and let him earn his way up to B. Ham by the end of 2025. A June arrival in 2026 would work perfectly for B. Monty. A June arrival in 2025 would work for C. Monty. 

Scheduled times because he’s a prospect? Perfect for Hahn, literally the opposite of what I said.

[WestEddy]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Scheduled times because he’s a prospect? Perfect for Hahn, literally the opposite of what I said.

There are seventy nine thousand "opposites" of what you said. 

[hi8is]

5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

At any rate, someone was thinking that Braden could possibly be debuting for the Sox as early as next season.

Dude would have to basically be the second coming of Dansby Swanson… and past him, the only other record I could find of a similar trajectory is from 1978.

So I’m on board with you calling “someone” out. 

I’m going to call this season a win if we see growth throughout our organization, across all levels. In 2025 we really should be following 6 teams like never before.

[hi8is]

On 12/21/2024 at 5:26 AM, Timmy U said:

maybe you want to get his struggles in adjusting to the majors out of the way ASAP, while you still suck

This has worked wonderfully for years and has been a big part of contributing to our current situation… so maybe they call him up “while you still suck” and he gets buried… never to recover.

Wonder how many examples of that are in our records?

[hi8is]

Here’s the case for Colson breaking with the team, specific only to his offensive performance:

- AA (Birmingham Barons): 27.9%
- AAA (Charlotte Knights): 23.3%
- AFL (Glendale Desert Dogs): 15.8%

We know our staff now is focused in large part of cutting down strikeouts. If it is true that he was affected by some off the field issues, they may not be giving much weight to his AAA numbers…

His AFL performance could be seen as him integrating those issues while checking some of our prerequisite boxes.

With a strong spring training, they could have further confirmation and pull the trigger.

[oldsox]

4 hours ago, hi8is said:

Here’s the case for Colson breaking with the team, specific only to his offensive performance:

- AA (Birmingham Barons): 27.9%
- AAA (Charlotte Knights): 23.3%
- AFL (Glendale Desert Dogs): 15.8%

We know our staff now is focused in large part of cutting down strikeouts. If it is true that he was affected by some off the field issues, they may not be giving much weight to his AAA numbers…

His AFL performance could be seen as him integrating those issues while checking some of our prerequisite boxes.

With a strong spring training, they could have further confirmation and pull the trigger.

I sure hope that is the case. There is no one else on the team who I would like to see play shortstop on a regular basis.

[Balta1701]

5 hours ago, hi8is said:

Here’s the case for Colson breaking with the team, specific only to his offensive performance:

- AA (Birmingham Barons): 27.9%
- AAA (Charlotte Knights): 23.3%
- AFL (Glendale Desert Dogs): 15.8%

We know our staff now is focused in large part of cutting down strikeouts. If it is true that he was affected by some off the field issues, they may not be giving much weight to his AAA numbers…

His AFL performance could be seen as him integrating those issues while checking some of our prerequisite boxes.

With a strong spring training, they could have further confirmation and pull the trigger.

That’s great. Show me you can do it at Charlotte for 6 weeks.

Just like the competition is inconsistent in the AFL, it’s inconsistent in the spring and we all know this. Dead arm periods mid March for pitchers, guys working on specific techniques, guys who will be at home on the couch in June pitching the 8th inning. Go out, play everyday, and show me that you’re back to a solid player at Charlotte when everyone is trying to win or at least look good to get called Up themselves. 

None of this should be unreasonable, we’ve just gotten used to our GM being an idiot so “of course we have to call a guy up immediately” doesn’t sound as crazy as it is. 

[Timmy U]

I dispute the premise that the reason the majority of Sox prospects have failed is that they were rushed. Yes, most prospects have failed. And, yes, many of them were rushed, but hitting in the majors has gotten increasingly hard and the Sox have not been good at developing players after their ascension. If, for instance, Eloy, Moncada, and Robert were rushed, you’d expect their initial time in the majors to be a disaster. But after brief adjustment periods, they all thrived. Then, over time, the league adjusted and they did not keep up. That points to problems in the major league staff, information, preparation, etc. Even Beckham had initial success. Now, I suppose you could argue that you have to wait for a prospect to struggle in the minors, adjust, and then they will be ready. But that can easily be disproved by hundreds of players who never struggled in the minors and then excelled in the majors Trout, Soto, etc etc. going further back, the Sox rushed a bunch of guys who were later successful. Harold Baines had no business being in mlb when he was called up. Robin Ventura hit .270 with 2 HR in AA and was the opening day 3b the next year. It’s possible all of those Sox prospects ho busted just weren’t good enough and would have busted whenever they were brought up. Or the Sox are not very good at helping their players once they get to the majors. Either way, I doubt a month in Charlotte is going to matter that much to Colson one way or the other.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

I dispute the premise that the reason the majority of Sox prospects have failed is that they were rushed. Yes, most prospects have failed. And, yes, many of them were rushed, but hitting in the majors has gotten increasingly hard and the Sox have not been good at developing players after their ascension. If, for instance, Eloy, Moncada, and Robert were rushed, you’d expect their initial time in the majors to be a disaster. But after brief adjustment periods, they all thrived. Then, over time, the league adjusted and they did not keep up. That points to problems in the major league staff, information, preparation, etc. Even Beckham had initial success. Now, I suppose you could argue that you have to wait for a prospect to struggle in the minors, adjust, and then they will be ready. But that can easily be disproved by hundreds of players who never struggled in the minors and then excelled in the majors Trout, Soto, etc etc. going further back, the Sox rushed a bunch of guys who were later successful. Harold Baines had no business being in mlb when he was called up. Robin Ventura hit .270 with 2 HR in AA and was the opening day 3b the next year. It’s possible all of those Sox prospects ho busted just weren’t good enough and would have busted whenever they were brought up. Or the Sox are not very good at helping their players once they get to the majors. Either way, I doubt a month in Charlotte is going to matter that much to Colson one way or the other.

Did Robin go like 0-43 in an early stretch in his call up? And baseball is notorious for guys getting called up hot, and then the game adjusting to them and those players never developing the skills and mentality to adjust back.

[Lip Man 1]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Did Robin go like 0-43 in an early stretch in his call up? And baseball is notorious for guys getting called up hot, and then the game adjusting to them and those players never developing the skills and mentality to adjust back.

He went 0-41 to start his Major League career.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Timmy U said:

I dispute the premise that the reason the majority of Sox prospects have failed is that they were rushed. Yes, most prospects have failed. And, yes, many of them were rushed, but hitting in the majors has gotten increasingly hard and the Sox have not been good at developing players after their ascension. If, for instance, Eloy, Moncada, and Robert were rushed, you’d expect their initial time in the majors to be a disaster. But after brief adjustment periods, they all thrived. Then, over time, the league adjusted and they did not keep up. That points to problems in the major league staff, information, preparation, etc. Even Beckham had initial success. Now, I suppose you could argue that you have to wait for a prospect to struggle in the minors, adjust, and then they will be ready. But that can easily be disproved by hundreds of players who never struggled in the minors and then excelled in the majors Trout, Soto, etc etc. going further back, the Sox rushed a bunch of guys who were later successful. Harold Baines had no business being in mlb when he was called up. Robin Ventura hit .270 with 2 HR in AA and was the opening day 3b the next year. It’s possible all of those Sox prospects ho busted just weren’t good enough and would have busted whenever they were brought up. Or the Sox are not very good at helping their players once they get to the majors. Either way, I doubt a month in Charlotte is going to matter that much to Colson one way or the other.

I would admit there's no guarantees in either case. Beckham honestly I thought was handled well, minor league pitching could not get him out. Eloy was kept down longer than he should have been and that didn't help him.

With too many of the White Sox's hitters, we can see the results of poor coaching in the minors combined with rushing them. Moncada wasn't ready. Robert never learned to be coachable. Anderson was rushed. Vaughn was rushed. Madrigal was rushed. In multiple cases, the bad habits stayed with them, or at the best there was a year+ of them struggling when they could have been working in the minors. Some of them needed better techniques, some of them needed to mature, some both.

A month in the minors might not matter to Colson if he's ready to come up. BUT IF HE ISN'T READY, if last year's problems linger, then bringing him up and having things go terrible for him could break him. That's the thing I want to avoid.

[Timmy U]

19 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

He went 0-41 to start his Major League career.

I was at the game where he broke the streak with, I believe, a bunt single. Then he went yard. I seem to remember it was off pre-steroids Roger Clemens.