Vaughn and Sox avoid arbitration: $5.85 million

[WestEddy]

10 minutes ago, Snopek said:

I think it’s all relative to expectations, draft position, etc.

If Vaughn was a fourth round pick, he clearly wouldn’t be a bust. But he was a consensus top 5 pick and seen as a polished hitter who would be a difference maker offensively.

When the results are league average production after that, that’s bust territory IMO.

At this point in his career, Vaughn is definitely a disappointment. He's still a WIP, and I think it's hyperbole to call him a bust, and to claim he should have never been drafted at #3. 

 

17 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It's also worth noting that with anyone but a few teams, he probably is barely playing, and those counting numbers suffer even more.

There were a good 8 contending clubs that ran that sort of production out there at 1B, though. Anthony Rizzo, Rowdy Tellez, Rhys Hoskins, Josh Bell. All of these guys will get starting jobs, and some will be on contending clubs. Maybe Vaughn's defense drops him out of that group, but he's not a clear step below that clump of players. 

[WhiteSox2023]

10 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

At this point in his career, Vaughn is definitely a disappointment. He's still a WIP, and I think it's hyperbole to call him a bust, and to claim he should have never been drafted at #3. 

 

There were a good 8 contending clubs that ran that sort of production out there at 1B, though. Anthony Rizzo, Rowdy Tellez, Rhys Hoskins, Josh Bell. All of these guys will get starting jobs, and some will be on contending clubs. Maybe Vaughn's defense drops him out of that group, but he's not a clear step below that clump of players. 

That’s a bit of an insincere way to frame it.  All of those first basemen you listed had way worse years than expected.  And Vaughn has never had even one good season in his career, much less a season as good as what all of those 1B have had in their careers.  Plus, many of the guys you listed are at the downside of their careers.  Vaughn is sitting here at age 26 which should be the prime years of his career and is still terrible.

Edited Friday at 04:34 PM by WhiteSox2023

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

At this point in his career, Vaughn is definitely a disappointment. He's still a WIP, and I think it's hyperbole to call him a bust, and to claim he should have never been drafted at #3. 

 

There were a good 8 contending clubs that ran that sort of production out there at 1B, though. Anthony Rizzo, Rowdy Tellez, Rhys Hoskins, Josh Bell. All of these guys will get starting jobs, and some will be on contending clubs. Maybe Vaughn's defense drops him out of that group, but he's not a clear step below that clump of players. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rhys-hoskins/16472/stats?position=1B/OF

Hoskins was your classic 2 fWAR firstbaseman every year of his career until last season.

Vaughn has never approached that level.

[southsider2k5]

13 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

At this point in his career, Vaughn is definitely a disappointment. He's still a WIP, and I think it's hyperbole to call him a bust, and to claim he should have never been drafted at #3. 

 

There were a good 8 contending clubs that ran that sort of production out there at 1B, though. Anthony Rizzo, Rowdy Tellez, Rhys Hoskins, Josh Bell. All of these guys will get starting jobs, and some will be on contending clubs. Maybe Vaughn's defense drops him out of that group, but he's not a clear step below that clump of players. 

I would split that into two pieces.  #1 he was a consensus top 5 pick.  #2 he is a bust.

[joejoesox]

🤮 

[tray]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Except you don't look for your 1B to be "league average".  Their primary job is offense.  You look for "league average" hitters at non-offensive positions.  Your 1B is there to create runs.

Of 1B's last year with 400 or more PAs, his 97 RC+ ranked 29th of 36 hitters.  Factor in his below average 1B defense, he drops to 31st best at 1B.  I mean I guess you can say they picked better than 2nd round pick Gavin Sheets, who is dead last, right?

Further to your point we wanted/needed more HR from AV and our other corner infielders and outfielders.If he hit 30 bombs, we would probably not be having this conversation about his value...but he didn't.

[WestEddy]

9 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

That’s a bit of an insincere way to frame it.  All of those first basemen you listed had way worse years than expected.  And Vaughn has never had even one good season in his career, much less a season as good as what all of those 1B have had in their careers.  Plus, many of the guys you listed are at the downside of their careers.  Vaughn is sitting here at age 26 which should be the prime years of his career and is still terrible.

Now you're making excuses. Which is it, they performed worse than expected, or are they on the down side of their careers? Rizzo, Bell and Tellez are on a two year skid as replacement level production. You can also toss Jon Singleton into that group. 

You are acting like Vaughn is an unprecedented level of bad that is unique to the dysfunction here. His defense kills his numbers. His level of offense is starting at 1B for a good third of the league. Can the Sox do better? Yes. Can Vaughn do better? Maybe. But they're in a rebuild, and 1B is a position that is covered in house with a relatively cheap option for a losing season. 

I would think it the Sox load up on bats in the draft, the next couple international classes, and in the last round of trades, somebody will fail out of their position, and wind up at 1B. 

[WhiteSox2023]

5 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Now you're making excuses. Which is it, they performed worse than expected, or are they on the down side of their careers? Rizzo, Bell and Tellez are on a two year skid as replacement level production. You can also toss Jon Singleton into that group. 

You are acting like Vaughn is an unprecedented level of bad that is unique to the dysfunction here. His defense kills his numbers. His level of offense is starting at 1B for a good third of the league. Can the Sox do better? Yes. Can Vaughn do better? Maybe. But they're in a rebuild, and 1B is a position that is covered in house with a relatively cheap option for a losing season. 

I would think it the Sox load up on bats in the draft, the next couple international classes, and in the last round of trades, somebody will fail out of their position, and wind up at 1B. 

Both.  Vaughn has never had one season as good as any of those first basemen you listed.  The only reason your comparison works is because most of those guys are old and/or on the downside of their careers.  Tellez isn’t old but he was never really a good player to begin with, just like Vaughn.

If we have to contemplate whether our 26 year old former #3 overall 1B pick is worth $6 million or not, the story has already been written.  I guess the fact that he is starting at 1B in the MLB is proof that he isn’t some sort of colossal bust, but then again, he should probably be a bench player.

[WestEddy]

8 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:

Both.  Vaughn has never had one season as good as any of those first basemen you listed.  The only reason your comparison works is because most of those guys are old and/or on the downside of their careers.  Tellez isn’t old but he was never really a good player to begin with, just like Vaughn.

If we have to contemplate whether our 26 year old former #3 overall 1B pick is worth $6 million or not, the story has already been written.  I guess the fact that he is starting at 1B in the MLB is proof that he isn’t some sort of colossal bust, but then again, he should probably be a bench player.

And those guys who are old or on the downside of their careers will get starting jobs on baseball teams this year, some, on contenders. 

I'm not sure what you're arguing, really. Players who used to be better are bad, now, and because of that, they're comparable to Andrew Vaughn and that's no fair?

[southsider2k5]

24 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Now you're making excuses. Which is it, they performed worse than expected, or are they on the down side of their careers? Rizzo, Bell and Tellez are on a two year skid as replacement level production. You can also toss Jon Singleton into that group. 

You are acting like Vaughn is an unprecedented level of bad that is unique to the dysfunction here. His defense kills his numbers. His level of offense is starting at 1B for a good third of the league. Can the Sox do better? Yes. Can Vaughn do better? Maybe. But they're in a rebuild, and 1B is a position that is covered in house with a relatively cheap option for a losing season. 

I would think it the Sox load up on bats in the draft, the next couple international classes, and in the last round of trades, somebody will fail out of their position, and wind up at 1B. 

I think that is a couple of levels too far.  Andrew Vaughn in a lowest tier MLB starting 1B.  Yes other teams also have really bad 1Bs, but that doesn't mean Andrew Vaughn isn't in that bucket.  He is the type of 1B today that you are looking to upgrade if you have him.  When he was drafted, the expectation that he would carry on that Paul Konerko/Jose Abreu level of solid upper tier production.  When you draft a guy #3, the expectation is that they will turn into a 10+ year starter at the major league level, with all star/star potential.  You don't draft a guy #3 with the expectation that they are a bottom tier starter.  If they do, they have busted.  It doesn't mean they couldn't have never made it, and been a bust in that aspect, but the expectations for career are much higher at #3 are much higher than they are even for #30, let alone #300.

[WhiteSox2023]

5 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

And those guys who are old or on the downside of their careers will get starting jobs on baseball teams this year, some, on contenders. 

I'm not sure what you're arguing, really. Players who used to be better are bad, now, and because of that, they're comparable to Andrew Vaughn and that's no fair?

The point is that Andrew Vaughn was never good.  Producing a list of equally bad first basemen, most of whom are nearing retirement, doesn’t make 26 year old Vaughn look any better.

Edited Friday at 05:14 PM by WhiteSox2023

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

I get why most are done with AV. But its not like Sox have any other great options between 1B/DH after Vargas.  May as well give him one more shot to turn into a tradeable asset.  $5.85M is nothing in baseball terms.  If he sucks again, you simply non-tender for 2026 and move along. 

The problem is he only has a year left after this, so even if he’s “fixed” by Fuller he’s a limited player with limited team control.  Just another reason why playing the service time manipulation game is so important, even if will likely cause the clubhouse to implode per Balta.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

A "bust" doesn't put up league average production. Andrew Vaughn is a league average hitter. Yes, he needed to be a superstar, being drafted at #3. Calling him a complete bust is silly. 

A league average hitter at 1B is a bust for a top 5 pick.

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The problem is he only has a year left after this, so even if he’s “fixed” by Fuller he’s a limited player with limited team control.  Just another reason why playing the service time manipulation game is so important, even if will likely cause the clubhouse to implode per Balta.

Vaughn needed a year or two in the minors to not be ass with the glove. That's not even manipulation. 

[WestEddy]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

A league average hitter at 1B is a bust for a top 5 pick.

Fair enough. I'll be wrong on this one. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, WestEddy said:

Obviously. Courtney Hawkins was a bust. Zach Collins was a bust. Andrew Vaughn isn't what he's supposed to be. 

He was a top 5 selection who was supposed to be high floor and he’s basically a replacement level player.  That’s a bust in my eye.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 minutes ago, WestEddy said:

Fair enough. I'll be wrong on this one. 

All good, just sharing my opinion on the matter.  And honestly, we were hoping for an impact hitter at 1B when we took him, but he’d actually have some value with say a 120 wRC+.  That just hasn’t happened yet unfortunately.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

I believe this is correct. By avoiding arb, you're signing them to a guaranteed contract.

Same would go for Penn Murfee, who may didn't have penciled into the pen, and close to the chopping block.  Though his deal would be a much cheaper one to swallow. 

Murfee has options though and that’s just his major league contract right?  If he goes to the minors, he makes a much different salary I believe.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Ducksnort said:

Who knows, maybe he'll be a late bloomer. I doubt it, but you never know.

I think it is possible.  To be fair to AV, he was dealt a tough hand.  No minor league development due to covid.  Getting thrown into a position he hadn't played since little league at the big league level.  Dealing with failure he'd never dealt with at the big league level.  Everything that has transpired with the Sox since mid-22.  Couldn't be easy. 

I do think he has more in there.  He's probably never going to reach his draft day projections, and his lack of athleticism and defensive ability really makes him a bat only player, but I do think he's a big leaguer.  He's definitely a guy that had the Sox non-tendered him, I wouldn't be shocked at to have seen him go elsewhere and turn into .280/.335/.440 type hitter.  Could still happen after 2026 too, I suppose.  Would sure be nice to see him have a really nice first half and move him with a 1.5 seasons of control. 

[ChiSox59]

37 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The problem is he only has a year left after this, so even if he’s “fixed” by Fuller he’s a limited player with limited team control.  Just another reason why playing the service time manipulation game is so important, even if will likely cause the clubhouse to implode per Balta.

You should always plays the service time game with anyone other than fringe guys, IMO.   Will never change my position on that. 

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

You should always plays the service time game with anyone other than fringe guys, IMO.   Will never change my position on that. 

Especially when you refuse to play at the top of the market.

[ChiSox59]

32 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Murfee has options though and that’s just his major league contract right?  If he goes to the minors, he makes a much different salary I believe.

Idk for sure, to be honest.  I would assume since he signed a 1 year mlb deal, the Sox owe him his mlb salary (which is basically league min) even if he is optioned, or DFA (and not claimed). 

[Timmy U]

The interesting thing with Vaughn is how long his slumps last and how deep they are. Every year he's a pretty good player for 4/5 months, but his bad month(s) are so bad that it drags down his value. Usually it's September. Last year it was April/May. If he could shorten his slumps or hit .200 instead of .150 during them, he could become a 120 WRC+ type of guy. That would be league average for a starter at that position and make his contract a bargain. Maybe Fuller can help him with that.

[T R U]

20 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

You should always plays the service time game with anyone other than fringe guys, IMO.   Will never change my position on that. 

If they play the service game with Colson and he comes up in May and becomes Alex Rodriguez, he will never see the end of that control in a White Sox uniform as of today. I would rather take a shot at the extra draft pick for the situation we are in with the decision maker of this organization.

I agree with you though, you should always maximize the control of your high end talent (potential) but even saying that you should be locking them up long before that extra year means anything anyways. In a perfect world at least.

[southsider2k5]

12 minutes ago, T R U said:

If they play the service game with Colson and he comes up in May and becomes Alex Rodriguez, he will never see the end of that control in a White Sox uniform as of today. I would rather take a shot at the extra draft pick for the situation we are in with the decision maker of this organization.

I agree with you though, you should always maximize the control of your high end talent (potential) but even saying that you should be locking them up long before that extra year means anything anyways. In a perfect world at least.

If he comes up in April and becomes Alex Rodriguez he isn't going to see the end of those 6 years in a White Sox uniform either, so what is the difference, besides one less  year of trade value?