Chicago White Sox Posted Sunday at 07:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:04 PM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted Sunday at 07:15 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 07:15 PM That’s 13.6 fWAR projected for the positional group, which is about a 20 win improvement vs. last year. Nothing seems too crazy to me, although I would take the under on Benintendi & Vaughn. And getting ~2 wins out of that $4M RF platoon would be a solid move for Getz. Only 3.9 fWAR projected for the pitching staff, which is about a 6 win decrease vs. last year. That projection for the bullpen is very ugly despite Getz’s recent trades. I do think that the pitching staff ultimately exceeds those numbers though. I am more optimistic on the SP’s and my guess is a few relievers will end up surprising. Team will still be very bad, but I still see a ~55 win club. Pounder that over if it’s still sitting at 49.5. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:30 PM It would be surprising if none of the White Sox young starters break 2 WAR. Cannon and Davis Martin both looked like they could be shaky, but mostly solid. Thorpe, before the injury, too. Katz has his work cut out for him with that bullpen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaleAleSox Posted Sunday at 07:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:38 PM People in the comments saying they are worse than last year truly don’t understand how bad they were. It takes incredible luck to be that bad. They will still be dreadful but they will be 15 games better just by accident. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted Sunday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:52 PM 10 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said: People in the comments saying they are worse than last year truly don’t understand how bad they were. It takes incredible luck to be that bad. They will still be dreadful but they will be 15 games better just by accident. And when addressing the "unlucky". They were so bad that veterans would run into stupid, game-ending plays. Vaughn getting called for interference on an infield fly rule during a 4-run 9th to lose. DeJong forgetting how many outs to get doubled off 1st to end a 1 run game. Jankowski grabbing Vaughn's game winning home run during a late season losing streak. I truly believe there was such profound mental fatigue from the losing, it just built on itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted Sunday at 08:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:24 PM (edited) 48 minutes ago, PaleAleSox said: They will be 15 games better just by accident. I don't know about that. I don't think anybody can say the roster is any better right now than last season. Who is the Sox starting shortstop and second baseman in the year after DeBong and Nicky? Those two truly were dreadful so maybe this year's crew will be better. If Vaughn and Robert have horrible seasons there's no way they'll win more than 45 games. Cause somebody list a two-deep roster with likely starters and subs? I need to start learning some names even tho I won't be buying mlb.com again. Edited Sunday at 08:24 PM by greg775 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaleAleSox Posted Sunday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:39 PM 17 minutes ago, greg775 said: I don't know about that. I don't think anybody can say the roster is any better right now than last season. Who is the Sox starting shortstop and second baseman in the year after DeBong and Nicky? Those two truly were dreadful so maybe this year's crew will be better. If Vaughn and Robert have horrible seasons there's no way they'll win more than 45 games. Cause somebody list a two-deep roster with likely starters and subs? I need to start learning some names even tho I won't be buying mlb.com again. The roster last year was not a 41 win team. They, too, should have been closer to 55 or so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted Monday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:50 AM I thin there's a bullpen addition or two coming and probably someone in the infield before ST starts. I hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted Monday at 02:21 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:21 AM (edited) And Martin's the most likely member of that starting rotation to get traded (not to mention he's coming off TJS)...also, not exactly an optimistic projection for Thorpe. I think everyone would take a 2.0 fWAR from Luis Robert heading into the first week of July. Probably more optimistic than most. Edited Monday at 02:22 AM by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted Monday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:27 AM (edited) 43 minutes ago, Baron said: I thin there's a bullpen addition or two coming and probably someone in the infield before ST starts. I hope. Where are they going to find a REAL SS? The Tampa Bay Rays officially came to terms on Tuesday with free agent shortstop Amed Rosario, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. Per Passan on "X:" Infielder Amed Rosario and the Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a one-year, $1.5 million contract, sources tell ESPN. That was probably their last best chance at the "cheapies." Maybe Kevin Newman (looks like he's a non-roster invite in PITT), the Mets' post-season star Jose Iglesias, or former Rockies' SS Brendan Rodgers? Jon Berti? Plenty of players from the 2024 Chicago White Sox are still available in free agency. There were so many problems with the Southsiders last year that these players should get chances elsewhere. That includes Nicky Lopez, who hit .241 in 124 games playing second base and shortstop. This is another player who would be happy to sign a one-year contract with the Mariners. Even though it is so hard to hit in Seattle, Lopez would be a solid defender and has had success at T-Mobile Park. In 14 games, he has a .357 batting average with 20 hits in 56 at-bats. Getting someone who can hit in Seattle into the fold would be a great way to end the offseason. Uh-oh, can't wait to see CWS's take on this move for Seattle, haha. Suggestions for Ha Seong Kim (2/$36 million), Rizzo, Berti and Nicky Lopez to basically replace Rojas, haha. https://clutchpoints.com/mariners-top-4-bargain-bin-free-agent-targets Edited Monday at 02:34 AM by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted Monday at 02:37 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:37 AM (edited) 6 hours ago, PaleAleSox said: The roster last year was not a 41 win team. They, too, should have been closer to 55 or so. Disagree. You don't win games with an up the middle of DeBong and Nicky as well as the light stick we had at catcher. Also easily the worst pitching staff top to bottom in Sox history. And finally nobody except Beni lifting and pulling any home runs to speak of. That team deserved what it got, 41 wins. It lost blowout games, it lost 'close' games cause of the bullpen and it lost games cause of its lousy starting pitchers not named Crochet. also Fedde did OK even though he stunk as a Cardinal. Luis Robert also had an uneventful 393 at bats. Edited Monday at 02:40 AM by greg775 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zisk Posted Monday at 09:46 AM Share Posted Monday at 09:46 AM Noticed Peyton Pallette and Adler missing from bullpen estimate. I think they'll both be up by the All Star break . Maybe the pen will end up at zero. Could bump us up to 58 wins. That's the good news I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted Monday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:07 PM 3 hours ago, zisk said: Noticed Peyton Pallette and Adler missing from bullpen estimate. I think they'll both be up by the All Star break . Maybe the pen will end up at zero. Could bump us up to 58 wins. That's the good news I guess. Yes no Pallette Schoenle Adisyn Coffey...pretty sure they had P.Berroa from the Santos trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjusttyped Posted Monday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:08 PM (edited) Quote "Here’s something I don’t think I’ve ever seen from ZiPS before: There isn’t a single pitcher on the White Sox, including those who are still listed with the team but are actually free agents, who is projected to have at least a league-average ERA. That’s pretty shocking — most teams, even the absolutely horrific ones, will usually have some random middling reliever who just barely sneaks into adequacy. The lowest projected ERA here belongs to Penn Murfee, who hasn’t even been healthy since 2022. ZiPS projects the rotation to likely be above replacement level, but doesn’t see a great deal of upside outside of Drew Thorpe. It’s never been keen on Jonathan Cannon, who hasn’t really mastered minor league batters in his short professional career. Martín Pérez is just around to eat innings so that games actually end, and Davis Martin and Sean Burke are basically just-a-guys. Noah Schultz easily has the most fascinating long-term projection — at least in a good way — and could certainly have a Tarik Skubal-esque breakout, but the Sox are unlikely to push him too aggressively this season. ZiPS has long recovered from it’s mild crush on Bryse Wilson, and doesn’t see Nick Nastrini as having big league-ready command at this point. The bullpen projects… worse. Indeed, this is the worst unit that ZiPS has ever projected, but I’m not inclined to rag on a dozen org guys on a terrible team. Of the projected relief corps, Prelander Berroa is probably the name to watch — though you don’t have to watch the White Sox, I promise — as his plus fastball and slider at least could be good. Problem is, he’s definitely far more of a thrower than a pitcher at this point; his pitches often intersect with the strike zone purely by chance. As I said up top, the White Sox may win 20 more games in 2025 than in 2024, but at this point, I have very little faith that they’ve done anywhere near enough to put themselves in a position to be a good team in the future. I almost wonder if they need another record-breaking season to really turn around how the franchise is run." https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/ Edited Monday at 05:08 PM by maxjusttyped Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted Monday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:47 PM 40 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/ That last line is why sort of hoping for horrifically bad instead of 55ish wins seems the most rational thought for fans who know "open spigots" spending and a beautiful new stadium aren't ever going to be in the cards from a Reinsdorf family member. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted Monday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:52 PM 1 hour ago, caulfield12 said: That last line is why sort of hoping for horrifically bad instead of 55ish wins seems the most rational thought for fans who know "open spigots" spending and a beautiful new stadium aren't ever going to be in the cards from a Reinsdorf family member. If the zips projections are correct, we will be throwing a bunch of bodies on that pitching mound all season. Just arms, little ability to get guys out. If the pitching is way worse than last year and we win 50 games then the new manager is manager of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted Monday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:19 PM 2 hours ago, greg775 said: If the zips projections are correct, we will be throwing a bunch of bodies on that pitching mound all season. Just arms, little ability to get guys out. If the pitching is way worse than last year and we win 50 games then the new manager is manager of the year. I'd say winning more than 60 games would definitely make him a strong candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted Monday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:40 PM (edited) Just for context, here's what Zips thought the Sox would do last year (2024): http://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/White-Sox-24.png https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/ Edited Monday at 09:40 PM by WestEddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted Monday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:42 PM 4 hours ago, maxjusttyped said: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/ Season Ticket Representatives are standing by to take your call... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegner Posted Monday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:44 PM 5 minutes ago, Tony said: Season Ticket Representatives are standing by to take your call... Got a busy signal....Oh well, I will try next year I guess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted Monday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:46 PM White Sox coaching and suck breaks the ability of statistical models. We're not going to put up 13 fWAR from position players. I'd be shocked if we put up 10. Go ahead and save this post. I'll eat crow if I'm wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted Monday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:52 PM 14 minutes ago, WestEddy said: Just for context, here's what Zips thought the Sox would do last year (2024): http://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/White-Sox-24.png https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/ So they were projected for a little over 20 WAR as a team last year and this year they’re around 17-18? Awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted Monday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:55 PM 5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: So they were projected for a little over 20 WAR as a team last year and this year they’re around 17-18? Awesome. And if Robert hits 3+ he's likely traded too...not sure anyone else even approaches 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted Monday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:00 PM 10 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said: So they were projected for a little over 20 WAR as a team last year and this year they’re around 17-18? Awesome. And they underperformed that by 27 wins. 17 wins would have them in the mid-60's, which would almost call for a parade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JUSTgottaBELIEVE Posted Monday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:09 PM 11 minutes ago, WestEddy said: And they underperformed that by 27 wins. 17 wins would have them in the mid-60's, which would almost call for a parade. When’s the last time they outperformed their projections? 2021? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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