Anthony Santander signs with TOR 5/$92.5

[caulfield12]

  On 1/20/2025 at 10:05 PM, Lip Man 1 said:

That's a very valid point, but there are always die-hards (think JR in the past) that were willing to shut everything down in order to somehow break the union.

Also I'm guessing as they get closer the owners, like past times, will take out strike insurance that will help somewhat to off set losses. 

Expand  

Let's see how many AL Central teams make the post season again.

Not only are they creating a competitive imbalance...but two teams in the Mariners and Orioles that are directly affected by the White Sox level of incompetence seem to be deliberately suppressing spending in their windows.  And then you also have the Twins doing nothing the last two off seasons coming off a huge playoff breakthrough.

At least the Pohlad kids put that team up for sale, though.  They acknowledge quite honestly the impact of the RSN financial shortfalls.

Edited January 20 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I read that with the amount of deferrals in this contract the present day value is approx $70M. I don’t know, doesn’t seem that expensive to lock up a corner LHH OF spot for 4-5 years.

[caulfield12]

  On 1/21/2025 at 2:46 AM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I read that with the amount of deferrals in this contract the present day value is approx $70M. I don’t know, doesn’t seem that expensive to lock up a corner LHH OF spot for 4-5 years.

Expand  

That was the theory behind Benintendi...JR wouldn't want his kids on the hook for future financial commitments.

Edited January 21 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

  On 1/21/2025 at 3:14 AM, caulfield12 said:

That was the theory behind Benintendi...JR wouldn't want his kids on the hook for future financial commitments.

Expand  

Santander is cheaper than Benintendi in today’s dollars due to the deferrals. Benintendi’s contract if signed today would be worth ~$80M adjusted for inflation. Neither plays good defense but at least Santander can pretend to play RF for a couple years unlike Benintendi and has more power.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

  On 1/21/2025 at 2:46 AM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I read that with the amount of deferrals in this contract the present day value is approx $70M. I don’t know, doesn’t seem that expensive to lock up a corner LHH OF spot for 4-5 years.

Expand  

We’re just beating a dead horse at this point, but you continue to ignore that he will cost the first pick of the second round, $500k in international slot, and may not even be good by the time the rest of our team is good.  Steamer projects he will be a 2.7 win player next year and with a normal aging curve you’d be looking at 2.2 in 2026, 1.7 in 2027, 1.2 in 2028, & 0.7 in 2029.  Maybe he ages more graciously, but he’s not the type of player I would bet on for that.  As such, he doesn’t make any sense for a team coming off the worst season in baseball history and who won’t be competitive for quite some time.

[Snopek]

  On 1/21/2025 at 2:46 AM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I read that with the amount of deferrals in this contract the present day value is approx $70M. I don’t know, doesn’t seem that expensive to lock up a corner LHH OF spot for 4-5 years.

Expand  

I wonder how long he stays in the OF. If he ends up locked into their DH spot for the majority of the contract, they better hope his offense ages well.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

  On 1/21/2025 at 12:45 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

We’re just beating a dead horse at this point, but you continue to ignore that he will cost the first pick of the second round, $500k in international slot, and may not even be good by the time the rest of our team is good.  Steamer projects he will be a 2.7 win player next year and with a normal aging curve you’d be looking at 2.2 in 2026, 1.7 in 2027, 1.2 in 2028, & 0.7 in 2029.  Maybe he ages more graciously, but he’s not the type of player I would bet on for that.  As such, he doesn’t make any sense for a team coming off the worst season in baseball history and who won’t be competitive for quite some time.

Expand  

And that’s why you don’t sign him only. If you’re going to lose the 2nd round pick anyways, go out and sign Alonso and Pivetta as well. The longer these guys push into this year unsigned the much more likely they are to sign for reasonable contracts. 

[southsider2k5]

  On 1/21/2025 at 12:45 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

We’re just beating a dead horse at this point, but you continue to ignore that he will cost the first pick of the second round, $500k in international slot, and may not even be good by the time the rest of our team is good.  Steamer projects he will be a 2.7 win player next year and with a normal aging curve you’d be looking at 2.2 in 2026, 1.7 in 2027, 1.2 in 2028, & 0.7 in 2029.  Maybe he ages more graciously, but he’s not the type of player I would bet on for that.  As such, he doesn’t make any sense for a team coming off the worst season in baseball history and who won’t be competitive for quite some time.

Expand  

The Sox aren't going to be in the business of giving up draft picks (or even worse multiple picks for multiple players) especially in pursuit of red flag hitters after a 41 win season.

[southsider2k5]

  On 1/21/2025 at 1:33 PM, Snopek said:

I wonder how long he stays in the OF. If he ends up locked into their DH spot for the majority of the contract, they better hope his offense ages well.

Expand  

Law said pretty much this.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6076231/2025/01/20/blue-jays-anthony-santander-signing-analysis/?source=athletic_pulsenewsletter&campaign=12332137&userId=6062851

[caulfield12]

  On 1/21/2025 at 2:31 PM, southsider2k5 said:

Law said pretty much this.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6076231/2025/01/20/blue-jays-anthony-santander-signing-analysis/?source=athletic_pulsenewsletter&campaign=12332137&userId=6062851

Expand  

And playing on turf...he ages even faster.

Plus his career OPS is sub 700 in Toronto.

[WBWSF]

  On 1/20/2025 at 6:43 PM, Lip Man 1 said:

With all due respect, does it even matter?

Expand  

I don't like the present White Sox becoming the new version of the St. Louis Browns. Its obvious that ownership is happy with the low payroll and the losing teams.

[southsider2k5]

  On 1/21/2025 at 6:30 PM, WBWSF said:

I don't like the present White Sox becoming the new version of the St. Louis Browns. Its obvious that ownership is happy with the low payroll and the losing teams.

Expand  

Can I let you in on a secret?  Anthony Santander doesn't change that.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

  On 1/21/2025 at 6:32 PM, southsider2k5 said:

Can I let you in on a secret?  Anthony Santander doesn't change that.

Expand  

Santander, Alonso, and Kim starts to change the story though. Have to start somewhere and get past the one year rentals eventually.

[southsider2k5]

  On 1/21/2025 at 6:50 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Santander, Alonso, and Kim starts to change the story though. Have to start somewhere and get past the one year rentals eventually.

Expand  

So they can drop a few hundred million dollars and still lose 100 games?  Great story, all while giving up multiple draft picks.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

  On 1/21/2025 at 6:52 PM, southsider2k5 said:

So they can drop a few hundred million dollars and still lose 100 games?  Great story, all while giving up multiple draft picks.

Expand  

Over in the ZIPS projections thread people are telling me the Sox are going to win 60-62 games as currently constructed. So adding 3 all star caliber players and the team wouldn’t see any improvement from that??

I stand corrected, @WestEddy said they’re projected for mid 60 wins as currently constructed…

Edited January 21 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[southsider2k5]

  On 1/21/2025 at 7:54 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Over in the ZIPS projections thread people are telling me the Sox are going to win 60-62 games as currently constructed. So adding 3 all star caliber players and the team wouldn’t see any improvement from that??

I stand corrected, @WestEddy said they’re projected for mid 60 wins as currently constructed…

Expand  

Cool.  I don't buy that for a second.  Projection systems like ZIPS have problems with historic outliers.  Why?  Because by their very definition, they are historic.  Statistical models by their very nature regress to norms, not dealing with the worst team in 125 years history of baseball.

Literally no one, or nothing, projected 41 wins last year, and we have already significantly subtracted from that team at the major league level.  There is no real bullpen, and a AAA starting rotation, if it stays healthy.  Getting the offense back to zero would be an improvement, while adding nothing to the offense either.  Even with "regression" and luck, that isn't enough to make up 25 games.  That's a joke.

Nor do I think the idea of trying to take a shortcut around taking the time to actually build a real player development system, and not taking the short cuts that led to to Chris Getz is a good idea.  Look, if you want to sustain actually winning, you have to be cranking players out of your minor league system on a regular basis.  If you are robbing yourself of draft pick to sign 2nd and 3rd tier free agents, while robbing your minor league system to do it, you are just redoing exactly what got you here in the first place.   Once we actually show our player development team has been significantly improved by replacing Chris Getz, there will be the next group of mid tier free agents to choose from.  Our next Andrew Benitendi awaits soon enough.

[Balta1701]

  On 1/21/2025 at 7:54 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Over in the ZIPS projections thread people are telling me the Sox are going to win 60-62 games as currently constructed. So adding 3 all star caliber players and the team wouldn’t see any improvement from that??

I stand corrected, @WestEddy said they’re projected for mid 60 wins as currently constructed…

Expand  

Santander is projected at 2.7 wins, their current RF platoon is listed as 1.9. Ha-Seong Kim is 2.6, their current SS is listed as Montgomery with a 1 WAR projection, so that is a bigger upgrade but also blocks their top prospect for multiple years. For Alonso, he's projected as a 2.3 WAR player by steamer, which is a recovery over his down 2024 season a little bit, which would be a 1 WAR upgrade over Vaughn.

If you believe this team is a 65 win team right now, you've spent what, $50 million to make them a 70 win team, which is honestly about typical.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

  On 1/21/2025 at 8:13 PM, Balta1701 said:

Santander is projected at 2.7 wins, their current RF platoon is listed as 1.9. Ha-Seong Kim is 2.6, their current SS is listed as Montgomery with a 1 WAR projection, so that is a bigger upgrade but also blocks their top prospect for multiple years. For Alonso, he's projected as a 2.3 WAR player by steamer, which is a recovery over his down 2024 season a little bit, which would be a 1 WAR upgrade over Vaughn.

If you believe this team is a 65 win team right now, you've spent what, $50 million to make them a 70 win team, which is honestly about typical.

Expand  

#1 it’s not “my” money

#2 they’d still be running a team payroll well below league average even after those signings

#3 70+ wins led by a franchise player that my kids could actually feel not embarrassed to wear his jersey is a lot better than whatever they’re going to put out there this season and next

[Balta1701]

  On 1/21/2025 at 8:20 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

#1 it’s not “my” money

#2 they’d still be running a team payroll well below league average even after those signings

#3 70+ wins led by a franchise player that my kids could actually feel not embarrassed to wear his jersey is a lot better than whatever they’re going to put out there this season and next

Expand  

  Quote

ZiPS is rather lukewarm on this signing, suggesting Santander is worth five years at $70 million. There are obvious reasons why ZiPS is a bit lower on Santander: Less-than-elite sluggers who are more or less one dimensional tend to decline sharply in the early 30s. However, that doesn’t mean this is a bad deal. Toronto needed another productive bat now, and that’s exactly what Santander should be in 2025. The Blue Jays won only 74 games last year, but that win total was more likely an underperformance rather than a reflection of their true talent, so we shouldn’t use that as a baseline expectation to project what they’ll do in the upcoming season. ZiPS and Steamer both view Toronto as a middle class team, not a basement dweller.

Expand  

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-finally-get-a-free-agent-slugger-to-say-yes/

[Snopek]

  On 1/21/2025 at 8:20 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

#1 it’s not “my” money

Expand  

That's kinda the point though. It's not your money, it's the money of the guy who is very careful about how and when he spends it. 

Suppose Jerry allows the signings of Alonso, Santander and Kim (the first two of which aren't likely to age all that well). Great. They've forced their way to a 72 win team by Jerry doing something very uncomfortable (for him) with his money.

Do you really feel like he'll then add even more payroll to continue supplementing the roster as the younger talent develops? And then add even more after that to help offset the declines of Alonso and Santander?

[southsider2k5]

  On 1/21/2025 at 8:23 PM, Balta1701 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-finally-get-a-free-agent-slugger-to-say-yes/

Expand  

Translation:  By the time that we may actually need a Santander, Santander probably won't be a Santander anymore, and more like a Chris Davis.

[southsider2k5]

  On 1/21/2025 at 8:38 PM, Snopek said:

That's kinda the point though. It's not your money, it's the money of the guy who is very careful about how and when he spends it. 

Suppose Jerry allows the signings of Alonso, Santander and Kim (the first two of which aren't likely to age all that well). Great. They've forced their way to a 72 win team by Jerry doing something very uncomfortable (for him) with his money.

Do you really feel like he'll then add even more payroll to continue supplementing the roster as the younger talent develops? And then add even more after that to help offset the declines of Alonso and Santander?

Expand  

These guys will not make this a 72 win team.  There is not 30 games of improvement to be had with this pitching staff let alone a very mediocre offense, at best, with those guys.

[Snopek]

  On 1/21/2025 at 8:40 PM, southsider2k5 said:

These guys will not make this a 72 win team.  There is not 30 games of improvement to be had with this pitching staff let alone a very mediocre offense, at best, with those guys.

Expand  

It's true. I was trying to be generous for the sake of argument. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

  On 1/21/2025 at 8:38 PM, Snopek said:

That's kinda the point though. It's not your money, it's the money of the guy who is very careful about how and when he spends it. 

Suppose Jerry allows the signings of Alonso, Santander and Kim (the first two of which aren't likely to age all that well). Great. They've forced their way to a 72 win team by Jerry doing something very uncomfortable (for him) with his money.

Do you really feel like he'll then add even more payroll to continue supplementing the roster as the younger talent develops? And then add even more after that to help offset the declines of Alonso and Santander?

Expand  

I’ve conceded that they will never be a real contender as long as Jerry owns the team so I’m not worried about future hypotheticals. Under that premise, at least give me a few players my kids can cheer for today and a non embarrassing mlb product. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

  On 1/20/2025 at 6:53 PM, WestEddy said:

Unless they're traded, one of Cannon, Martin, Thorpe or Burke will be the go to guy, opening day, 2026. 

Expand  

I'd give Schultz a decent chance . But I can understand not being the #1 guy that soon. They'll still likely be handling him delicately. Hope he and Hagen Smith both are healthy and lights out this year, along with the Montgomery Twins. Then things will start to heat up .