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southsider2k5

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  On 2/16/2025 at 3:27 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I just think this was very unrealistic in hindsight. The offers for 4 years of Luis Robert coming off a 38 homer season would’ve needed to be astronomical. They would’ve gotten more than they’d get now but nobody expected the 2024 he had. Getz would’ve been crucified for trading Robert during his first winter in charge because regardless of the return, it wouldn’t have been enough for 4 years of a superstar. 

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Jimmy I always respect your opinion but you can't call it 4 years. In reality you're talking a minimum of 2 years and a maximum of 4 years if by after 2025 the trading team deems his options worth picking up. His injury history alone was reason to get whatever you could for him.

No GM should care whether he's crucified by the fan base as long as your getting a good deal.

Based on the fact that his injury history vs his output in 2023 still favors him getting hurt again  over putting up another good season in 2024 a trade seemed immediately prudent. Also 1 5.0 War season does not justify calling him a superstar. This has always been when fan bases get overzealous about value. The same thing happened in the long Cease thread with the Orioles fans even though he had a down year in 2023 and Getz traded him which further indicated it was a rebuild. You don't hold onto Robert praying for him to buck the odds of getting injured again.Maybe those extra 2 years of options gets you slightly more but his injury history needed to be taken into major consideration. Plus the Sox were and still are in desperate need of position player prospects especially in CF or SS. Trading Robert shouldve taken precedent over trading Cease. If you were going to hold one of them to try to get a better deal , the much healthier Cease coming off a bad year was the better bet to stay healthy and improve his value. Then you have Crochet,Cease and Fedde in this alternate universe since trading Robert but keeping Cease still freed up money to afford Fedde.

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Regardless of the past - in my mind the answer is clear - you got to gamble on him having a good half - if he does - they will get a much better return and if he doesn’t than you aren’t that much worse off down the road. 
 

Right now they aren’t getting a high impact prospect so in my mind don’t move him unless you take on a contract to facilitate getting real talent. 
 

If they sell him low that just isn’t a good outcome. This isn’t the same as Cease. I am somewhat hopeful a fresh offseason and fresh start can do wonders for him. But I never thought he would have a year where his production was that low (his tools are just too good). 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 6:35 PM, Chisoxfn said:

Regardless of the past - in my mind the answer is clear - you got to gamble on him having a good half - if he does - they will get a much better return and if he doesn’t than you aren’t that much worse off down the road. 
 

Right now they aren’t getting a high impact prospect so in my mind don’t move him unless you take on a contract to facilitate getting real talent. 
 

If they sell him low that just isn’t a good outcome. This isn’t the same as Cease. I am somewhat hopeful a fresh offseason and fresh start can do wonders for him. But I never thought he would have a year where his production was that low (his tools are just too good). 

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We should 100% gamble on him having a good 1H rather than dump him for 50 cents on the dollar, but it seems that Getz and team feel differently.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 5:11 PM, Snopek said:

For me, rebuilding is all about going for upside that aligns with your timeline of competing. Robert very much does not fit that timeline and therefore he’s of less use to the Sox than what they can get in return for him.

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As some have suggested, the market for Robert may increase later, so no reason to trade now unless the return is great.In addition, it might make sense (again depending on possible return) to dangle one of our catchers (Korey Lee(a proven ML catcher) or Thaiss (age 30 in May)) and Andrew Vaughn (considering other available options at 1B) in the trade market, targeting teams looking for catching or a first basemen. I would like to keep Teel and Quero.

As far as the concept of rebuilding, it seldom works. There are many more examples of failed rebuilds than those that worked out. Given the low payroll the Sox have and very few players that have much trade value, there is no reason to capitulate much further. At some point, it is time to enter the FA market and recapture some of the fan excitement lost the past few seasons. Some claim Reinsdorf will never add FA talent so it is up to JR and his current ownership team to prove them wrong.

I , for one, am looking forward to watching this 2025 team because of eventual stellar starting pitchers, Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith, and a few other likely starters (i.e. Cannon, Iriarte, Martin Perez, Davis Martin, ). Historically there have been teams that have competed because of a few dominant starters (remember Randy Johnson), a decent rotation and bullpen, and decent defense. You do not necessarily need a line-up that is an offensive force to compete. It is axiomatic in baseball terms that pitching and defense can win a lot of games. So, the question is, will Sox pitching make a difference this year?

Regarding our pitching check this interview with Katz out:

 

Edited by tray
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  On 2/16/2025 at 5:18 PM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Jimmy I always respect your opinion but you can't call it 4 years. In reality you're talking a minimum of 2 years and a maximum of 4 years if by after 2025 the trading team deems his options worth picking up. His injury history alone was reason to get whatever you could for him.

No GM should care whether he's crucified by the fan base as long as your getting a good deal.

Based on the fact that his injury history vs his output in 2023 still favors him getting hurt again  over putting up another good season in 2024 a trade seemed immediately prudent. Also 1 5.0 War season does not justify calling him a superstar. This has always been when fan bases get overzealous about value. The same thing happened in the long Cease thread with the Orioles fans even though he had a down year in 2023 and Getz traded him which further indicated it was a rebuild. You don't hold onto Robert praying for him to buck the odds of getting injured again.Maybe those extra 2 years of options gets you slightly more but his injury history needed to be taken into major consideration. Plus the Sox were and still are in desperate need of position player prospects especially in CF or SS. Trading Robert shouldve taken precedent over trading Cease. If you were going to hold one of them to try to get a better deal , the much healthier Cease coming off a bad year was the better bet to stay healthy and improve his value. Then you have Crochet,Cease and Fedde in this alternate universe since trading Robert but keeping Cease still freed up money to afford Fedde.

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I’m legitimately stunned by the discourse on this. It’s all hindsight. There’s no reason that a team would’ve seen that deal as a two year with two options. He looked like a total bargain after 2023. The Sox would’ve needed two top 50 prospects in baseball, another org top ten and another good prospect and it probably would’ve been seen as light in December 2023. 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:03 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I’m legitimately stunned by the discourse on this. It’s all hindsight. There’s no reason that a team would’ve seen that deal as a two year with two options. He looked like a total bargain after 2023. The Sox would’ve needed two top 50 prospects in baseball, another org top ten and another good prospect and it probably would’ve been seen as light in December 2023. 

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God, I would have killed for that return. Organization would be in a much better position today if they had pulled that off.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:16 PM, GreenSox said:

I've switched to the "trade Robert prior to season for best offer" camp.    My reason is completely circular:  the Sox seem hell-bent on moving him ASAP, so there must be a reason (beyond just an underwhelming 2024 performance).

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We already know the answer to this — the guy can’t stay healthy and that’s definitely what the Sox fear most.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:31 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

We already know the answer to this — the guy can’t stay healthy and that’s definitely what the Sox fear most.

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But really, if Robert rakes in 3 weeks of spring training, how much better are offers going to be after a boffo 1st half? I really believe that anybody trading for him is trading for this season. The injury concerns will always be baked into his value. So, while there's 3 years of "control", it comes with 2 winters of front offices holding their breath. 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:03 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I’m legitimately stunned by the discourse on this. It’s all hindsight. There’s no reason that a team would’ve seen that deal as a two year with two options. He looked like a total bargain after 2023. The Sox would’ve needed two top 50 prospects in baseball, another org top ten and another good prospect and it probably would’ve been seen as light in December 2023. 

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That's a thought, but the actions of Chris Getz tell a different story.  He acted like a guy who was thinking he could win again sooner than later, the Robert non-trade being of them.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:03 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I’m legitimately stunned by the discourse on this. It’s all hindsight. There’s no reason that a team would’ve seen that deal as a two year with two options. He looked like a total bargain after 2023. The Sox would’ve needed two top 50 prospects in baseball, another org top ten and another good prospect and it probably would’ve been seen as light in December 2023. 

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It's hindsight to plenty of fans who overvalued him.  It never was about his contract.Trading him after a great season with his injury history would've been done by an organization like the Rays .Selling high is paramount in baseball . Look what Crochet got after his lone  good season eason as a starting pitcher.

I think if you pulled up the thread in the 2023 off-season you see a lot thinking calling him a superstar and overvaluing him . I'm on record as saying he wasn't a superstar back then so it's not hindsight to me.

Also the Sox were selling everything in sight.

What was it about Roberts career path and the Sox 2023 season that makes you think 2024 didn't have a good chance of being a train wreck for both the Sox and Robert ?

I seem to remember @WestEddy arguing that Robert, Moncada and Eloy getting hurt was a deciding factor in 2024 being historically bad and Soxtalkers mocking him like expecting them to stay healthy was stupid since they were always injured.

I'm sure plenty of them were the same people telling us that Robert was a superstar and it was impossible to get fair value for him back in the 2023 off-season.

 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:23 PM, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

God, I would have killed for that return. Organization would be in a much better position today if they had pulled that off.

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They didn't even need that great of a deal to be much better off than they are today. He wasn't nor was he ever worth all that based on one season and 4 years $70 million left on his contract. He was only worth that if he had 2 or more seasons like that in a row. All his injuries always prevented him from being worth as much as all that.  

Unfortunately that was proven in 2024. Even a return like the Crochet trade and they would've still been much better off. Sure fans would've bitched about it but then realized  if he got injured with his new team in 2024 how lucky we would've been to have made that trade.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 3:27 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I just think this was very unrealistic in hindsight. The offers for 4 years of Luis Robert coming off a 38 homer season would’ve needed to be astronomical. They would’ve gotten more than they’d get now but nobody expected the 2024 he had. Getz would’ve been crucified for trading Robert during his first winter in charge because regardless of the return, it wouldn’t have been enough for 4 years of a superstar. 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 3:41 PM, southsider2k5 said:

Either he knew this was a rebuild and kept Robert, or he thought he could do something in 2024 and the immediate future that made keeping Robert worth it.

Either one isn't good.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 3:45 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

It’s not this easy. They gambled that Robert would be good in 2024 so they could more realistically get a trade return with 3.5 years of control. Now they have 3 years of control. What type of package would you have needed in the winter of 2023 to trade Robert with 4 years of control? 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 3:52 PM, PaleAleSox said:

That's not true at all. The actual real third option was he still had too much time left on his contract and would have been really hard to get actual value. Everyone would have lost their mind if they traded him for "less than" and no team would have given up the farm for him.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:03 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I’m legitimately stunned by the discourse on this. It’s all hindsight. There’s no reason that a team would’ve seen that deal as a two year with two options. He looked like a total bargain after 2023. The Sox would’ve needed two top 50 prospects in baseball, another org top ten and another good prospect and it probably would’ve been seen as light in December 2023. 

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From 2021-2023, Robert missed 36% of games due to injury. Let’s not pretend the risk of injury was something new to Robert in 2024.

He had a fantastic 2023, a career year to this point. (Also the only season is 5 career seasons he’s had over 400 AB’s) 

As everyone is familiar with, Jerry said the reason they hired Getz is because they “didn’t want to waste a year.” Now, in theory that can be interpreted a few different ways (all of them look bad for the Sox) but best case, it was Jerry saying they wanted someone to come in with a plan right away and start executing on their long term vision. 

Given what we have seen from Getz thus far, this is a complete tear down to the studs. If that’s the case, and has been from the start, then trading Robert after 2023 shouldn’t have been out of the question, at all. There was always going to be an inherent risk in holding on to Robert, and given his history on the DL, as well as value being removed every year because of control. 

When you talk about “value” for Robert in the winter of 2023…you take the best offer you receive, if it meets your internal criteria for what would be needed. That’s up to the Sox to set. You may feel like it’s not “proper” value for what a player should have with 4 years of control, but that’s meaningless if you project he’ll never have as high of a value as he does in 2023. It’s simply about how they project Robert. If they truly believed Robert would put up better numbers in 2024 and 2025 than he did in 2023, along with being able to stay healthy for a full season…that seems like a risky proposition. 

This is a very long way of saying at this point…they gambled and lost on Robert. It could still be changed, but if you don’t feel like a package  that was offered in December of 2023 will never be offered again for Robert, then they made a mistake. 

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I was in the keep Robert camp, but I didn’t anticipate 121 losses. That’s 40 under being average which would mean you are at least 2 or 3 years from actually competing . 3 or 4 least year, and if he played like the star he could be, there is no way JR would pay him. So you would have him for 1 year of contention at most, and Chris Getz said after the fact that 110 losses in 2024 wouldn’t have surprised him, so he knew the score or is lying.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:54 PM, Tony said:

 

 

 

 

From 2021-2023, Robert missed 36% of games due to injury. Let’s not pretend the risk of injury was something new to Robert in 2024.

He had a fantastic 2023, a career year to this point. (Also the only season is 5 career seasons he’s had over 400 AB’s) 

As everyone is familiar with, Jerry said the reason they hired Getz is because they “didn’t want to waste a year.” Now, in theory that can be interpreted a few different ways (all of them look bad for the Sox) but best case, it was Jerry saying they wanted someone to come in with a plan right away and start executing on their long term vision. 

Given what we have seen from Getz thus far, this is a complete tear down to the studs. If that’s the case, and has been from the start, then trading Robert after 2023 shouldn’t have been out of the question, at all. There was always going to be an inherent risk in holding on to Robert, and given his history on the DL, as well as value being removed every year because of control. 

When you talk about “value” for Robert in the winter of 2023…you take the best offer you receive, if it meets your internal criteria for what would be needed. That’s up to the Sox to set. You may feel like it’s not “proper” value for what a player should have with 4 years of control, but that’s meaningless if you project he’ll never have as high of a value as he does in 2023. It’s simply about how they project Robert. If they truly believed Robert would put up better numbers in 2024 and 2025 than he did in 2023, along with being able to stay healthy for a full season…that seems like a risky proposition. 

This is a very long way of saying at this point…they gambled and lost on Robert. It could still be changed, but if you don’t feel like a package  that was offered in December of 2023 will never be offered again for Robert, then they made a mistake. 

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Sometimes you need to explain it all out. There was nothing in what the Sox were doing at the time or Roberts career trajectory that said Luis Robert is going to stay healthy and be productive for 2 years in a row or that this wasn't a near rock bottom path the Sox were on.

It was all wishful thinking and delusions of a mind-blowing trade based on outlandish fair value by fans.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:16 PM, GreenSox said:

I've switched to the "trade Robert prior to season for best offer" camp.    My reason is completely circular:  the Sox seem hell-bent on moving him ASAP, so there must be a reason (beyond just an underwhelming 2024 performance).

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Maybe they know there are other reasons as to why he can't stay healthy like work ethic, chemical enhancements, extent of previous injuries etc. 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:55 PM, Dick Allen said:

I was in the keep Robert camp, but I didn’t anticipate 121 losses. That’s 40 under being average which would mean you are at least 2 or 3 years from actually competing . 3 or 4 least year, and if he played like the star he could be, there is no way JR would pay him. So you would have him for 1 year of contention at most, and Chris Getz said after the fact that 110 losses in 2024 wouldn’t have surprised him, so he knew the score or is lying.

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The problems for Robert Jr. and his agent were that he had the hand injury sliding into second and the fact that he has never been on a contending team where he was a final part to the puzzle. JR or any owner would pay for a star player on a contending team, like JR paid Michael Jordan and the championship Bulls. It is just hard to start spending on FA now, at least until the team shows some signs of life.  Never forget, hindsight is always 20/20 so just look ahead now.

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The Sox lost the gamble after 2023.  You are now gambling that if he has a good start to the year and doesn't get hurt, you might get 60-70 percent of value instead of 50 percent.  If he starts bad or gets hurt, then you are at 20-30 percent of value.  Since the thread started with Sox asking for multiple top prospects, 50 percent might be one good prospect- 50FV.  If he is good, maybe two 50FV or a 55 and a 50 if you get a bit of a bidding war.  20-30 percent probably a prospect who is older /hurt and has lost luster or a 45 value.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 6:41 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

We should 100% gamble on him having a good 1H rather than dump him for 50 cents on the dollar, but it seems that Getz and team feel differently.

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I've also said they should hold him and I'm not sure Getz or the team feels differently.

I do think that they like Taylor's defensive and base running skill set and  acquiring him is more of an insurance policy in case they get a better than expected trade offer before he opens the season in the OF.

Taylor's defense will give Robert a day off once every 15 days or so especially if they can give him 2 days off in a row with an off day in  the schedule with Taylor in CF on the preceding day or day after the open day on the schedule. Taylor's not likely to be facing any soft tossing RHP . He'll get the much tougher RHP that Robert likely wouldn't want to face.

 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 8:20 PM, ptatc said:

Maybe they know there are other reasons as to why he can't stay healthy like work ethic, chemical enhancements, extent of previous injuries etc. 

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You think if that was going on with Robert then they definitely should have traded him after the 2023 season unless they thought he had conquered those demons .

However even if you were model citizen there were still those injuries and now add the 2024 injury to that long list.

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MLB.com had 11 players to watch for Rookie of the Year consideration. Montgomery wasn't on the list but this guy was:

Chase Meidroth, INF, White Sox
230 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, .702 OPS, 1.1 WAR

Meidroth led the Minors with 105 walks and produced a .435 on-base percentage last season at Triple-A Worcester while in the Red Sox system. In December, he was part of a Sox swap, going from Boston to Chicago in the Garrett Crochet blockbuster. Meidroth doesn't have many standout tools, but given his highly advanced bat-to-ball skills, he could be on the White Sox active roster immediately as a reserve infielder. Steamer states that he will play 57 big league games this year and have a .356 on-base percentage thanks to a robust 13.7% walk rate.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 7:55 PM, Dick Allen said:

I was in the keep Robert camp, but I didn’t anticipate 121 losses. That’s 40 under being average which would mean you are at least 2 or 3 years from actually competing . 3 or 4 least year, and if he played like the star he could be, there is no way JR would pay him. So you would have him for 1 year of contention at most, and Chris Getz said after the fact that 110 losses in 2024 wouldn’t have surprised him, so he knew the score or is lying.

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No one anticipated 121 losses but you traded Cease .You also signed Fedde who apparently no on wanted to give a better offer to and you had Crochet who no one thought could stay healthy or pitch as long and as effectively as he did. They were both big question marks.

Everything was in shambles after an 101 loss season and trading away most of your assets. Your bullpen was gone, your prospects weren't ready. 110 losses seemed pretty likely even with Crochet and Fedde pitching well because the rest of the starting pitching and bullpen, offense and defense was garbage once Robert, Moncada and Eloy all took the year off torpedoing any trade value you were hoping to regain.

But Robert should've been traded .He was the one guy you were sure was worth a good return,  not a great return because of injuries. That isn't hindsight or revisionist history.  As I've said Tampa Bay in the same situation trades him. You get the money off the books and you get good prospects perhaps at least 1 really good one and a 2nd pretty good one near MLB ready and some lower level 45 level players too. Money gone and good new blood helps the rebuild tremendously. Then you still have Cease and Crochet to trade.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 9:34 PM, Lip Man 1 said:

MLB.com had 11 players to watch for Rookie of the Year consideration. Montgomery wasn't on the list but this guy was:

Chase Meidroth, INF, White Sox
230 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, .702 OPS, 1.1 WAR

Meidroth led the Minors with 105 walks and produced a .435 on-base percentage last season at Triple-A Worcester while in the Red Sox system. In December, he was part of a Sox swap, going from Boston to Chicago in the Garrett Crochet blockbuster. Meidroth doesn't have many standout tools, but given his highly advanced bat-to-ball skills, he could be on the White Sox active roster immediately as a reserve infielder. Steamer states that he will play 57 big league games this year and have a .356 on-base percentage thanks to a robust 13.7% walk rate.

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I just got done saying Meidroth was their most MLB ready prospect based on AAA seasons .

Unfortunately Sosa is likely to get 1st shot at 2nd base. And If Vargas or he produces offensively one of them is likely the new 1st baseman to replace Vaughn.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 6:41 PM, tray said:

As some have suggested, the market for Robert may increase later, so no reason to trade now unless the return is great.In addition, it might make sense (again depending on possible return) to dangle one of our catchers (Korey Lee(a proven ML catcher) or Thaiss (age 30 in May)) and Andrew Vaughn (considering other available options at 1B) in the trade market, targeting teams looking for catching or a first basemen. I would like to keep Teel and Quero.

As far as the concept of rebuilding, it seldom works. There are many more examples of failed rebuilds than those that worked out. Given the low payroll the Sox have and very few players that have much trade value, there is no reason to capitulate much further. At some point, it is time to enter the FA market and recapture some of the fan excitement lost the past few seasons. Some claim Reinsdorf will never add FA talent so it is up to JR and his current ownership team to prove them wrong.

I , for one, am looking forward to watching this 2025 team because of eventual stellar starting pitchers, Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith, and a few other likely starters (i.e. Cannon, Iriarte, Martin Perez, Davis Martin, ). Historically there have been teams that have competed because of a few dominant starters (remember Randy Johnson), a decent rotation and bullpen, and decent defense. You do not necessarily need a line-up that is an offensive force to compete. It is axiomatic in baseball terms that pitching and defense can win a lot of games. So, the question is, will Sox pitching make a difference this year?

Regarding our pitching check this interview with Katz out:

 

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I know this wasn't the point you were trying to make, but I think calling Korey Lee a proven ML catcher is a bit of a stretch

 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 9:46 PM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I just got done saying Meidroth was their most MLB ready prospect based on AAA seasons .

Unfortunately Sosa is likely to get 1st shot at 2nd base. And If Vargas or he produces offensively one of them is likely the new 1st baseman to replace Vaughn.

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I don’t ever see enough offensive ceiling from Sosa to be a good 1B.  We need to strive higher than that from a power position.

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