Cubs sign Justin Turner

[almagest]

"Great pivot" to sign a 40 year old with a .383 SLG instead of an actual good player like Bregman.

[WhiteSox2023]

When your top prospect is a 3B, it also doesn’t make much sense to give Bregman 3-years and $120 million dollars.  They just added veteran coverage and a good bench bat in case Matt Shaw falters as a rookie.

Edited February 18 by WhiteSox2023

[caulfield12]

There’s not much left though.

Veteran presence/leadership.  Combined 2023/24 for 1.1 and 1.2 fWAR seasons…at least three full years since he was still a really dangerous hitter.

Maybe he has a Pujols-esque final run in him, and it might be a case where he starts the year and Shaw is the relief guy at third if he just can’t get going out of the starting gate this year at 40.

[PaleAleSox]

  On 2/18/2025 at 5:02 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

When your top prospect is a 3B, it also doesn’t make much sense to give Bregman 3-years and $120 million dollars.  They just added veteran coverage and a good bench bat in case Matt Shaw falters as a rookie.

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Turner played 3rd only 13 times in the last two years, though.

[almagest]

  On 2/18/2025 at 5:02 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

When your top prospect is a 3B, it also doesn’t make much sense to give Bregman 3-years and $120 million dollars.  They just added veteran coverage and a good bench bat in case Matt Shaw falters as a rookie.

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It makes a lot of sense to sign a sure thing free agent and have infield depth, as we just saw in our failed rebuild. Shaw hasn’t accomplished anything yet, and you only have Kyle Tucker for one year right now. It’s pretty unlikely Shaw comes anywhere close to what Bregman does this year, and if he’s bad (which rookies often are), you press full-decline Turner into full time play.

So, instead of having a damn good third baseman for a few years and sprinkling Shaw in at 3B, 2B and DH, you’re relying on a rookie and a 40 year old in the only season you’re likely to have Tucker.

 

Edited February 18 by almagest

[Snopek]

I imagine they'll have him spell Busch at 1B too. I'd say if they don't end up needing more than ~400 plate appearances from him, it's probably fine. Not exactly an inspiring move, but I don't think Bregman was a great fit for them either.

[WhiteSox2023]

  On 2/18/2025 at 5:21 PM, almagest said:

It makes a lot of sense to sign a sure thing free agent and have infield depth, as we just saw in our failed rebuild. Shaw hasn’t accomplished anything yet, and you only have Kyle Tucker for one year right now. It’s pretty unlikely Shaw comes anywhere close to what Bregman does this year, and if he’s bad (which rookies often are), you press full-decline Turner into full time play.

So, instead of having a damn good third baseman for a few years and sprinkling Shaw in at 3B, 2B and DH, you’re relying on a rookie and a 40 year old in the only season you’re likely to have Tucker.

 

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They also have Jon Berti as additional mediocre veteran depth at 3B.  Not that impressive but with Turner, they do have some fallback options.  Better than Madrigal at least.

Regardless, Shaw is rated #19 in MLB’s top 100 and #13 recently by FanGraphs.  At some point, it doesn’t make sense to give a free agent 3B $40 million a year when you have a guy like that.

Would you hold the Sox to these same expectations when and if they are good again?  Because they wouldn’t sign Bregman either if they were in the same situation as the Cubs with Shaw waiting in the wings.

Edited February 18 by WhiteSox2023

[almagest]

  On 2/18/2025 at 5:33 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

They also have Jon Berti as additional mediocre veteran depth at 3B.  Not that impressive but with Turner, they do have some fallback options.  Better than Madrigal at least.

Regardless, Shaw is rated #19 in MLB’s top 100 and #13 recently by FanGraphs.  At some point, it doesn’t make sense to give a free agent 3B $40 million a year when you have a guy like that.

Would you hold the Sox to these same expectations when and if they are good again?  Because they wouldn’t sign Bregman either if they were in the same situation as the Cubs with Shaw waiting in the wings.

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Jon Berti is not good. If the Cubs are relying on him at third base, they have absolutely failed.

You're also completely missing the point. I'll say it again - the Cubs have Kyle Tucker for ONE YEAR. They cannot assume he'll sign an extension, or resign with them as a free agent. They just spent good prospect capital for him and need to maximize that resource. They are relying on a rookie to produce near or at Bregman's level - I don't care how highly Shaw is ranked, because rookies struggle in their first season all the time. You don't rely on them as equivalent for a major producer like Bregman. If you sign Bregman and Shaw hits well, then great! That opens up a trade for Hoerner, or maybe it lets the Cubs get some relief from that Swanson deal, shifting Hoerner to short, where IIRC he's been decent.

[PaleAleSox]

  On 2/18/2025 at 5:56 PM, almagest said:

Jon Berti is not good. If the Cubs are relying on him at third base, they have absolutely failed.

You're also completely missing the point. I'll say it again - the Cubs have Kyle Tucker for ONE YEAR. They cannot assume he'll sign an extension, or resign with them as a free agent. They just spent good prospect capital for him and need to maximize that resource. They are relying on a rookie to produce near or at Bregman's level - I don't care how highly Shaw is ranked, because rookies struggle in their first season all the time. You don't rely on them as equivalent for a major producer like Bregman. If you sign Bregman and Shaw hits well, then great! That opens up a trade for Hoerner, or maybe it lets the Cubs get some relief from that Swanson deal, shifting Hoerner to short, where IIRC he's been decent.

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They for sure aren't resigning him if they are so scared of deferred money, which is being reported. They just won't beat other offers.

[WhiteSox2023]

  On 2/18/2025 at 5:56 PM, almagest said:

Jon Berti is not good. If the Cubs are relying on him at third base, they have absolutely failed.

You're also completely missing the point. I'll say it again - the Cubs have Kyle Tucker for ONE YEAR. They cannot assume he'll sign an extension, or resign with them as a free agent. They just spent good prospect capital for him and need to maximize that resource. They are relying on a rookie to produce near or at Bregman's level - I don't care how highly Shaw is ranked, because rookies struggle in their first season all the time. You don't rely on them as equivalent for a major producer like Bregman. If you sign Bregman and Shaw hits well, then great! That opens up a trade for Hoerner, or maybe it lets the Cubs get some relief from that Swanson deal, shifting Hoerner to short, where IIRC he's been decent.

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I called Berti a mediocre backup vet 3B and compared him to Madrigal.

I see your point.  The Cubs definitely aren’t as good with Tucker and Shaw/Turner rather than Tucker and Bregman.  But I think if they had signed Bregman for 3/$120 and would have already been paying him $40 million a season, they would have zero shot at resigning Tucker next offseason.  It will still be difficult but I think they actually have a chance to re-sign him.  With Bregman’s additional salary, not a chance.

Edited February 18 by WhiteSox2023

[WestEddy]

  On 2/18/2025 at 5:59 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

I see your point.  The Cubs definitely aren’t as good with Tucker and Shaw/Turner rather than Tucker and Bregman.  But I think if they had signed Bregman for 3/$120 and would have already been paying him $40 million a season, they would have zero shot at resigning Tucker next offseason.  It will still be difficult but I think they actually have a chance to now.

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And if Bregman's good, he's gone after the year. I guess I'm saying they should have gone all in on Bregman for that deal (if that's how Boras was guiding them) and then lean into more rookies for 2026. 

[almagest]

  On 2/18/2025 at 5:59 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

I called Berti a mediocre backup vet 3B and compared him to Madrigal.

I see your point.  The Cubs definitely aren’t as good with Tucker and Shaw/Turner rather than Tucker and Bregman.  But I think if they had signed Bregman for 3/$120 and would have already been paying him $40 million a season, they would have zero shot at resigning Tucker next offseason.  It will still be difficult but I think they actually have a chance to re-sign him.  With Bregman’s additional salary, not a chance.

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$20 million is deferred per year on Bregman's salary. They could definitely afford Bregman and Tucker, especially if they can get out of some of Swanson's money. The Cubs are allergic to deferred money apparently, though, which is really silly, given how that franchise prints money.

As it is right now, they will have neither of them.

[WhiteSox2023]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:02 PM, WestEddy said:

And if Bregman's good, he's gone after the year. I guess I'm saying they should have gone all in on Bregman for that deal (if that's how Boras was guiding them) and then lean into more rookies for 2026. 

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Sure, and that’s reasonable.  But while we are talking about Colson Montgomery playing this year in the majors, he’s actually a few months younger than Shaw and Shaw has totally out produced Colson with the bat to the tune of a .906 lifetime OPS in the minors.  None of us would be looking to sign Bregman if the Sox were in the very same position with a prospect like Shaw basically major league ready.

[WhiteSox2023]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:08 PM, almagest said:

$20 million is deferred per year on Bregman's salary. They could definitely afford Bregman and Tucker, especially if they can get out of some of Swanson's money. The Cubs are allergic to deferred money apparently, though, which is really silly, given how that franchise prints money.

As it is right now, they will have neither of them.

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I heard this on sports radio last week — the Cubs definitely don’t like deferred money after the Lester and Heyward signings, so that makes sense.

I still wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Cubs look wise for not upping their offer to Bregman with Shaw killing the ball by later this season.  We would all be a lot more excited about Colson this season if he hit like Shaw did in the minors.

Edited February 18 by WhiteSox2023

[almagest]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:15 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

Sure, and that’s reasonable.  But while we are talking about Colson Montgomery playing this year in the majors, he’s actually a few months younger than Shaw and Shaw has totally out produced Colson with the bat to the tune of a .906 lifetime OPS in the minors.  None of us would be looking to sign Bregman if the Sox were in the very same position with a prospect like Shaw basically major league ready.

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I don't think Colson is ready for the majors, but the Sox have the ability to not care about him playing poorly at the MLB level at least. Cubs don't have that.

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:19 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

I heard this on sports radio last week — the Cubs definitely don’t like deferred money after the Lester and Heyward signings, so that makes sense.

I still wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Cubs look wise for not upping their offer to Bregman with Shaw killing the ball by later this season.

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I don't think so - if Shaw is great, Bregman and Shaw is still better because it gives them options with Hoerner and Swanson. The Dodgers do this better than anyone, and it seems like other teams just haven't caught on yet.

The Cubs should be fine with deferred money on Lester and Heyward, because it brought them a World Series win and like 5 years of sustained playoff success.

[WhiteSox2023]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:24 PM, almagest said:

I don't think Colson is ready for the majors, but the Sox have the ability to not care about him playing poorly at the MLB level at least. Cubs don't have that.

I don't think so - if Shaw is great, Bregman and Shaw is still better because it gives them options with Hoerner and Swanson. The Dodgers do this better than anyone, and it seems like other teams just haven't caught on yet.

The Cubs should be fine with deferred money on Lester and Heyward, because it brought them a World Series win and like 5 years of sustained playoff success.

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I disagree with this.  The Sox need Colson to pan out like the majority of their prospects for this rebuild to have a chance.

I agree with the rest of what you said, but not every team is going to spend like the Dodgers, even the Cubs.

However, rather than acquiring Bregman, what if they trade for Cease instead?  That’s what fathom thinks is going to happen.

[WestEddy]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:15 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

Sure, and that’s reasonable.  But while we are talking about Colson Montgomery playing this year in the majors, he’s actually a few months younger than Shaw and Shaw has totally out produced Colson with the bat to the tune of a .906 lifetime OPS in the minors.  None of us would be looking to sign Bregman if the Sox were in the very same position with a prospect like Shaw basically major league ready.

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Bregman would have moved to 2B. And isn't Nico Hoerner returning from injury? Good problems to have. 

[WhiteSox2023]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:28 PM, WestEddy said:

It really isn't. And he didn't. (FYI, you want to say "he implied". Imply puts the conveyance of the meaning on the speaker. Infer puts the interpretation of the meaning on the listener.) I understand you react strongly to accusations of racism and other bigotry. Just because you don't want to acknowledge it doesn't mean it doesn't exist. 

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Hinted and inferred work just fine as well.  Check your dictionary again.  But keep putting words in other’s mouths.  History has proven Jerry to be cheap.  It has nothing to do with anything else.  But keep telling me how this means I don’t want to acknowledge that racism exists.  And with that, I will bow out of this discussion because the absolute stupidity of it will probably get the thread closed.

Edited February 18 by WhiteSox2023

[almagest]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:28 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

I disagree with this.  The Sox need Colson to pan out like the majority of their prospects for this rebuild to have a chance.

I agree with the rest of what you said, but not every team is going to spend like the Dodgers, even the Cubs.

However, rather than acquiring Bregman, what if they trade for Cease instead?  That’s what fathom thinks is going to happen.

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Of course the Sox need Colson to succeed long term. If he struggles this year it's not a big deal, though. They can absorb the struggles for the future payoff. The Cubs can't absorb any struggles from Shaw because they're in win now mode with Tucker only being signed for a year.

Teams don't have to spend like the Dodgers, but they should embrace depth at multiple positions via free agent signings with deferred money and retaining impact prospects.

I'd be on board for a Cease trade for them, mostly because I'd like to see them trade and acquire him. I was thinking Hoerner could be in a deal for a starter, which probably relied on Bregman signing. I wouldn't trade Hoerner now. Not sure what the Padres are asking for, but I'd imagine it's MLB ready players, so I don't know how well the Cubs match up.

 

[WhiteSox2023]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:30 PM, WestEddy said:

Bregman would have moved to 2B. And isn't Nico Hoerner returning from injury? Good problems to have. 

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Bregman has played 9 games at 2B in his career.  I guess it’s a good problem to have if you think he can play there.  But we might see it happen since Devers is saying that 3B is his position.

[southsider2k5]

Since speaking bluntly isn't really working, I just deleted the crap out of this thread.  If people want ACTUAL quality discussions, a great place to start would be the topic at hand, and not dragging crap from one thread to the next.

[WhiteSox2023]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:38 PM, almagest said:

Of course the Sox need Colson to succeed long term. If he struggles this year it's not a big deal, though. They can absorb the struggles for the future payoff. The Cubs can't absorb any struggles from Shaw because they're in win now mode with Tucker only being signed for a year.

Teams don't have to spend like the Dodgers, but they should embrace depth at multiple positions via free agent signings with deferred money and retaining impact prospects.

I'd be on board for a Cease trade for them, mostly because I'd like to see them trade and acquire him. I was thinking Hoerner could be in a deal for a starter, which probably relied on Bregman signing. I wouldn't trade Hoerner now. Not sure what the Padres are asking for, but I'd imagine it's MLB ready players, so I don't know how well the Cubs match up.

 

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I don’t see the Cubs trading Hoerner.  He’s a 4 to 5 WAR player making $11.5 million this season and $12.5 million in 2026 for his age 28 and 29 seasons.  Definitely worth his contract with the price of players these days.  Also, wouldn’t the Padres prefer younger cheaper players with several years of control for Cease rather than 2 years of Hoerner?  They would probably ask for Shaw first.  The Cubs would have to at least throw a package of prospects (Horton, Caissie, etc.) at the Padres for Cease if they want to keep Shaw.

Edited February 18 by WhiteSox2023

[almagest]

  On 2/18/2025 at 8:55 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

I don’t see the Cubs trading Hoerner.  He’s a 4 to 5 WAR player making $11.5 million this season and $12.5 million in 2026 for his age 28 and 29 seasons.  Definitely worth his contract with the price of players these days.  Also, wouldn’t the Padres prefer younger cheaper players with several years of control for Cease rather than 2 years of Hoerner?  They would probably ask for Shaw first.  The Cubs would have to at least throw a package of prospects (Horton, Caissie, etc.) at the Padres for Cease if they want to keep Shaw.

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They're definitely not going to trade Hoerner now. My thought was he could be used to acquire a front line starter if they had Bregman at 3rd and if they thought Shaw was ready at 2nd. Shaw has played some 2nd in the minors. Not sure I'd use Hoerner for Cease anyway, though, since Cease only has a year left. Hypothetically, that'd probably be a 1 for 1 deal, with maybe a couple low minors guys going to the Cubs.

Not sure what the Padres want, and I don't think I've seen any rumored Cease deals. They're built to win now, so I'd assume they'd look to upgrade at 2B/LF/DH with major league talent, and maybe grab some lower level lotto tickets to develop, which they seem to be very good at.

[Bob Sacamano]

  On 2/18/2025 at 9:22 PM, almagest said:

They're definitely not going to trade Hoerner now. My thought was he could be used to acquire a front line starter if they had Bregman at 3rd and if they thought Shaw was ready at 2nd. Shaw has played some 2nd in the minors. Not sure I'd use Hoerner for Cease anyway, though, since Cease only has a year left. Hypothetically, that'd probably be a 1 for 1 deal, with maybe a couple low minors guys going to the Cubs.

Not sure what the Padres want, and I don't think I've seen any rumored Cease deals. They're built to win now, so I'd assume they'd look to upgrade at 2B/LF/DH with major league talent, and maybe grab some lower level lotto tickets to develop, which they seem to be very good at.

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Padres might as well gamble on Verdugo. Of course, they have that platoon in LF now.

If they wanted to add position players and try to catch lightning in a bottle, they might as well have gone Verdugo and JDM at LF and DH.

[GreenSox]

  On 2/18/2025 at 6:28 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

I disagree with this.  The Sox need Colson to pan out like the majority of their prospects for this rebuild to have a chance.

.

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But the Sox have time to let him pan out....he doesn't have to be immediately productive.

The Sox need 4 or 5 of their prospects to be studs and another half dozen become useful players.  They can build around that.  Montgomery would be a great start - lord knows the Sox are due for some production from young players.

Edited February 18 by GreenSox