2025 Bold Predictions

[PaleAleSox]

  On 3/18/2025 at 3:58 PM, chitownsportsfan said:

Bold prediction is we threaten our season long futility pace in the first half before becoming a bad but not historically bad team in the last two months to finish around 55-107.

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I think the, "Oh they might break the record again" stuff will be out the window somewhat quickly. Instead of starting 3-22 they'll be more like 8-14. Finish between 55-60 wins.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:24 PM, Quin said:

If we're going as far as including Dave Wells, then you should give the Sox their flowers for having an insane run of health from 2001-2016.

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This message board is so toxic, that I remember someone posting articles from Eaton or some other bum ripping Hermie and saying he was the worst in baseball. The guy had basically 2 decades as, by far, the goat for maintaining health, but his routines were bad or archaic or some nonsense. 

I'll still stand on the reason Chris Sale is still around today was because of how the Sox and Herm managed his shoulder and arm. 

I don't care if you thought Schneiders programs were from the stone age, results are undeniable. 

Since he's left too, we've been a dumpster fire.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

That said:

Bold prediction:

West Eddy will say something critical of Getz and WSox and ss2k will not derail the thread in which west eddy does so.

[WestEddy]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:31 PM, PaleAleSox said:

I think the, "Oh they might break the record again" stuff will be out the window somewhat quickly. Instead of starting 3-22 they'll be more like 8-14. Finish between 55-60 wins.

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Even taking Crochet and Fedde into account, I think they enter '25 with a stronger and more reliable rotation (1-5) than they did in '24. 

[ptatc]

  On 3/18/2025 at 3:44 PM, WhiteSox2023 said:

It happened a few times/injuries with Deng though, not just the meningitis diagnosis.  How often does it have to happen before it is a running theme due to failure, rather than a one off incident?

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If its always the one player, I would suspect it's more the player not listening or not being honest or accurate with the symptoms. This doesn't mean the player is faking or intentionally being dishonest.

There are many factors that go into diagnosis, evaluation and treatment. It always starts with the patient subjective reports of incident and symptoms. That's what we have to base things on. Then we do our physical tests to determine what is going on from there. After that it's imaging to see if it conform what we found. 

If the patient isn't accurate it can lead away from the actual issue. There is referred pain where the reported pain has nothing to do with the actual issue. This can mislead the evaluation.

A classic example is foot pain. Foot pain can be anything from structures in the foot to back issues and anything in between. The evaluation starts with the patient report.

The example is always use is a golfer named Jose Maria Olazabal. He was having chronic foot pain and had two surgeries by world renowed physicians. He was going to retire due the pain and failed surgeries. He went to a physiotherapist recommended by a friend. They found a back issue, fixed him and he return to golf.

He never, ever had back issues.

How many people do you know who had back surgery and their issues went away. Happens a lot. Many times the back wasn't the issue and we can help them.

 

Edited yesterday at 05:48 PM by ptatc

[WestEddy]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:47 PM, ptatc said:

If its always the one player, I would suspects it's more thevplayer not listening or not being honest or accurate with the symptoms. This doesn't mean the player is faking or intentionally being dishonest.

There are many factors that go into diagnosis, evaluation and treatment. It always starts with the patient subjective reports of incident and symptoms. That's what we have to base things on. Then we do our physical tests to determine what is going on from there. After that it's imaging to see if it conform what we found. 

If the patient isn't accurate it can lead away from the actual issue. There is referred pain where the reported pain has nothing to do with the actual issue. This can mislead the evaluation.

A classic example is foot pain. Foot pain can be anything from structures in the foot to back issues and anything in between. The evaluation starts with the patient report.

The example is always use is a golfer named Jose Maria Olazabal. He was having chronic foot pain and had two surgeries by world renowed physicians. He was going to retire due the pain and failed surgeries. He went to a physiotherapist recommended by a friend. They found a back issue, fixed him and he return to golf.

He never, ever had back issues.

How many people do you know who had back surgery and their issues went away. Happens a lot. Many times the back wasn't the issue and we can help them.

 

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Isn't the premise of the TV show House that every patient lies? 

[caulfield12]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:44 PM, WestEddy said:

Even taking Crochet and Fedde into account, I think they enter '25 with a stronger and more reliable rotation (1-5) than they did in '24. 

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Who is the Cy Young candidate worth two top 30ish and 40-60 prospects?

Who else will finish in the top 15-20 for fWAR like Fedde did?

If you could add the Big 3 in and count them, sure...but all will be closely monitored and still on innings and pitch count limits for at least parts of this season.

May 2026 seems more likely unless Ishbia is taking over much earlier than we are aware about.

[fathom]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:50 PM, WestEddy said:

Isn't the premise of the TV show House that every patient lies? 

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I thought it was that the first three diagnosis made are wrong, and then a tidbit from another patient helps you realize the initial diagnosis was correct?

[ptatc]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:52 PM, fathom said:

I thought it was that the first three diagnosis made are wrong, and then a tidbit from another patient helps you realize the initial diagnosis was correct?

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There is some truth to this.

[Jerksticks]

Kyle Teel .300/.400/.500

[46DidIt]

Arrogance can turn any man into a functional retard

[Lip Man 1]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:47 PM, ptatc said:

If its always the one player, I would suspect it's more the player not listening or not being honest or accurate with the symptoms. This doesn't mean the player is faking or intentionally being dishonest.

There are many factors that go into diagnosis, evaluation and treatment. It always starts with the patient subjective reports of incident and symptoms. That's what we have to base things on. Then we do our physical tests to determine what is going on from there. After that it's imaging to see if it conform what we found. 

If the patient isn't accurate it can lead away from the actual issue. There is referred pain where the reported pain has nothing to do with the actual issue. This can mislead the evaluation.

A classic example is foot pain. Foot pain can be anything from structures in the foot to back issues and anything in between. The evaluation starts with the patient report.

The example is always use is a golfer named Jose Maria Olazabal. He was having chronic foot pain and had two surgeries by world renowed physicians. He was going to retire due the pain and failed surgeries. He went to a physiotherapist recommended by a friend. They found a back issue, fixed him and he return to golf.

He never, ever had back issues.

How many people do you know who had back surgery and their issues went away. Happens a lot. Many times the back wasn't the issue and we can help them.

 

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I have lower disc issues that fortunately haven't reached the point where surgery is needed. I've asked folks who have had it how it went for them. Some said it was the best thing they ever did, some said it was the worst.

I hope I don't ever have to make that decision.

That's why to me, Montgomery having back issues at so young of an age is concerning. 

[WestEddy]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:51 PM, caulfield12 said:

Who is the Cy Young candidate worth two top 30ish and 40-60 prospects?

Who else will finish in the top 15-20 for fWAR like Fedde did?

If you could add the Big 3 in and count them, sure...but all will be closely monitored and still on innings and pitch count limits for at least parts of this season.

May 2026 seems more likely unless Ishbia is taking over much earlier than we are aware about.

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When I refer to the entire rotation "1-5", I believe I'm indicating that I'm adding in the "big 3". 

When you've pulled Brad Keller off the waiver wire, and you're starting him on May 3, I think that's a textbook definition of "the worst possible scenario". The 2024 rotation fell apart quickly and was a mess until maybe September. 

For as "Cy Young competitive" as you think Crochet was, he was a good 2+ bWins behind the leaders. I understand that he never started the 5th inning after June 30th. 

I don't think any of these guys will reach the 5.5 bWAR that Fedde did, but I wouldn't think it crazy for 1-2 of Martin, Perez, Burke and Cannon to reach 3.5 bWAR. Chris Flexen threw up 1.6, for heaven's sake. 

It's reasonable to say that maybe Perez and Cannon are allowed to maintain a pace to reach 140 IP by the end of the year (pace, because Perez will probably be traded). If Martin, Burke and Shane Smith are "managed", Thorpe, Nastrini, Iriarte, Eder, White, Gilbert, Dunn, Wikelman, Eder, Mason Adams (after June) are there to throw innings in the 2nd half. 

I don't know what May 2026 is in reference to. I'm comparing the 24 rotation to the possible 25 rotation. 

[Lip Man 1]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:40 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This message board is so toxic, that I remember someone posting articles from Eaton or some other bum ripping Hermie and saying he was the worst in baseball. The guy had basically 2 decades as, by far, the goat for maintaining health, but his routines were bad or archaic or some nonsense. 

I'll still stand on the reason Chris Sale is still around today was because of how the Sox and Herm managed his shoulder and arm. 

I don't care if you thought Schneiders programs were from the stone age, results are undeniable. 

Since he's left too, we've been a dumpster fire.

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There is one thing that I think Getz should be given credit foe (assuming it was his decision) the Sox are now starting to take seriously issues like biomechanics (they hired a person for that position last year), sleep schedules things like that. 

Welcome to the 21st century as I was told by an individual, “The Sox play checkers where others teams play chess” where it comes to these issues.

Maybe it will start to pay off, time will tell. 

[PaleAleSox]

There is also absolutely no way the bullpen can be as bad as it was last year just because of dumb luck.

[Lip Man 1]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:18 PM, PaleAleSox said:

There is also absolutely no way the bullpen can be as bad as it was last year just because of dumb luck.

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Maybe, we'll see. But they did have 27 games where they took a lead into the 7th inning or later and lost the game last year. That's pretty hard to top. 

[ptatc]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:14 PM, Lip Man 1 said:

I have lower disc issues that fortunately haven't reached the point where surgery is needed. I've asked folks who have had it how it went for them. Some said it was the best thing they ever did, some said it was the worst.

I hope I don't ever have to make that decision.

That's why to me, Montgomery having back issues at so young of an age is concerning. 

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I would agree with all of this. 

Part of the complexity of back issues is that just because you have a discussion issue on imaging doesn't mean they are causing problems.

They've done studies on disc imaging of people who have never had back issues and about 40% find disc's issues. 

As we age there is normal degeneration in the spine and related structures that cause no issues.

While imaging is helpful, it should not be used without the physical exam and even then as you pointed out, the back is so complex it's really hard to evaluate and treat properly.

 

[southsider2k5]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:14 PM, Lip Man 1 said:

I have lower disc issues that fortunately haven't reached the point where surgery is needed. I've asked folks who have had it how it went for them. Some said it was the best thing they ever did, some said it was the worst.

I hope I don't ever have to make that decision.

That's why to me, Montgomery having back issues at so young of an age is concerning. 

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Look, breaking a bone is never great, but it seems preferential to a back injury like this.  It just doesn't seem to go away, and only gets worse.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:14 PM, WestEddy said:

When I refer to the entire rotation "1-5", I believe I'm indicating that I'm adding in the "big 3". 

When you've pulled Brad Keller off the waiver wire, and you're starting him on May 3, I think that's a textbook definition of "the worst possible scenario". The 2024 rotation fell apart quickly and was a mess until maybe September. 

For as "Cy Young competitive" as you think Crochet was, he was a good 2+ bWins behind the leaders. I understand that he never started the 5th inning after June 30th. 

I don't think any of these guys will reach the 5.5 bWAR that Fedde did, but I wouldn't think it crazy for 1-2 of Martin, Perez, Burke and Cannon to reach 3.5 bWAR. Chris Flexen threw up 1.6, for heaven's sake. 

It's reasonable to say that maybe Perez and Cannon are allowed to maintain a pace to reach 140 IP by the end of the year (pace, because Perez will probably be traded). If Martin, Burke and Shane Smith are "managed", Thorpe, Nastrini, Iriarte, Eder, White, Gilbert, Dunn, Wikelman, Eder, Mason Adams (after June) are there to throw innings in the 2nd half. 

I don't know what May 2026 is in reference to. I'm comparing the 24 rotation to the possible 25 rotation. 

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The top four starters for the White Sox this year are projected for 4.6 total fWAR (and that's with all with > 120 IP projected!)

Garrett Crochet was worth 4.7 fWAR last year. Fedde and Crochet were worth 8.1 fWAR combined.

[WestEddy]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:24 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The top four starters for the White Sox this year are projected for 4.6 total fWAR (and that's with all with > 120 IP projected!)

Garrett Crochet was worth 4.7 fWAR last year. Fedde and Crochet were worth 8.1 fWAR combined.

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Those are projections. I don't think anybody buys into Fangraphs' projection of 63 wins for the Sox. 

Chris Flexen was worth 1.3 fWAR last season. That projection assumes that 4 of their starters will be worse than Chris Flexen, and the 5th will be worth less than 0 fWAR. 

[ptatc]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:21 PM, southsider2k5 said:

Look, breaking a bone is never great, but it seems preferential to a back injury like this.  It just doesn't seem to go away, and only gets worse.

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Backs are messy. Too many moving parts. Fractures bones are mostly straight ward. Unless it's a comminuted fracture with many pieces they tend to heal well in the young athletic population unless there are co-morbidities like diabetes.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:28 PM, WestEddy said:

Those are projections. I don't think anybody buys into Fangraphs' projection of 63 wins for the Sox. 

Chris Flexen was worth 1.3 fWAR last season. That projection assumes that 4 of their starters will be worse than Chris Flexen, and the 5th will be worth less than 0 fWAR. 

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Do you have any statistical reason as to why the projections are wrong?

The projections aren't assuming anything, you are. I know how bad the rotation is projected to be, and even though I made a prediction that Burke and Smith will be average MLB starters, it's very unlikely that this rotation outperforms last years.

Where the Sox should be better, I'd hope, is on the position player side.

[pcq]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:47 PM, ptatc said:

a

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[ptatc]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:43 PM, pcq said:

 

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Sorry I get a little wordy and times. The professor in me.

[caulfield12]

Cannon and Martin Perez are definitely going to regress…Perez due to a weaker defense behind him and switching out Petco at night for GRF in the summer.