2025 Bold Predictions

[46DidIt]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:14 PM, WestEddy said:

When I refer to the entire rotation "1-5", I believe I'm indicating that I'm adding in the "big 3". 

Expand  

He's referring to Schultz, Hagen and Taylor. Major league team doesn't have a big three

[southsider2k5]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:24 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The top four starters for the White Sox this year are projected for 4.6 total fWAR (and that's with all with > 120 IP projected!)

Garrett Crochet was worth 4.7 fWAR last year. Fedde and Crochet were worth 8.1 fWAR combined.

Expand  

This right here is important.  While I think we might be a bit better and more stable on the back end, we are going to be giving up a legitimate one and two on the front end.  The same game we might have been able to squeak 3-2 last year during a Fedde/Crochet start, turns into a 5-3 loss this year on the front end, while the game we lost 10-2 last year maybe turns into a 5-2 loss this year.  While advanced stats see the pitching production at the "same" by balancing out the loss of the most horrible starts with the loss of the best wins, with the complete lack of offense, I don't think it will translate into as many wins as it would if we had an offense that could score runs with other teams in MLB.  The only games we were really in last year were those quality starts. 

And I definitely don't think those guys survive the season in tact anyway.  There will definitely be periods of time where we get a lot of bad starts in a row, just like we saw last year as some of these guys through growing pains.  Injuries are going to happen for sure, as will some big ups and downs.

I am also still not convinced that the bullpen will be substantively better than last year, and with as many innings as they will be covering, there will still be a lot of really bad pitchers throwing a lot of innings.  This isn't going to be a lot of 7 innings and hand it to our 2 best pitchers to close (whoever those are this year).

[WestEddy]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:43 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Do you have any statistical reason as to why the projections are wrong?

The projections aren't assuming anything, you are. I know how bad the rotation is projected to be, and even though I made a prediction that Burke and Smith will be average MLB starters, it's very unlikely that this rotation outperforms last years.

Where the Sox should be better, I'd hope, is on the position player side.

Expand  

I don't think the projections are wrong. They're snapshots of probabilities based on what players have done in the past, with small adjustments taking development into consideration as players age towards one's peak, or regression as they age away. People who run the simulations don't enter "started throwing a new kick-change" into the formula, or "dude dominated in 10 spring training innings". 

Being a fan means hoping that Martin Perez can revert more towards his 2022 production, rather than continue to perform worse than his 2024 stats. (Do I need to show statistical proof of that before I can "hope" it?) Or that Davis Martin and Sean Burke can produce in ways that prospect evaluation people think they can, instead of what their minor league and limited major league numbers spit out in 1000 simulations. 

All of Soroka, Flexen, Cannon and Nastrini were disasters in their first trips through the rotation. I feel confident that the 3-4-5 starters in 2025 will fare better. 

 

[WestEddy]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:58 PM, 46DidIt said:

He's referring to Schultz, Hagen and Taylor. Major league team doesn't have a big three

Expand  

Oh. Why would anyone be referring to prospects that are at least a year away when talking about the initial 2025 starting rotation. Maybe I'm just being "Caulfielded". 

[caulfield12]

  On 3/18/2025 at 7:06 PM, WestEddy said:

Oh. Why would anyone be referring to prospects that are at least a year away when talking about the initial 2025 starting rotation. Maybe I'm just being "Caulfielded". 

Expand  

No I genuinely thought the ONLY you could possibly argue this rotation was equal or better was by including them in the second half of the season…at least Schultz and maybe Taylor if he continues evolving.

And this coming from a “huge massive immense” Shane Smith fan.

There’s just no way they are better after subtracting Crochet and Fedde.

That’s way too much high quality production to replace…without dipping into the Big 3 for corresponding talent.

 

A number of posters here have argued they see Schultz up in 2025.  I happen to personally disagree due to it still being a JR-led operation as far as we all know.

Your listing of all the AAA and AA starters plus Eder isn’t going to mean any of them will be of quality.  Skepticism on Iriarte abounds.  Nastrini has a tick or two higher velo.  We shall see soon enough.

Edited Tuesday at 07:15 PM by caulfield12

[WestEddy]

  On 3/18/2025 at 6:58 PM, southsider2k5 said:

This right here is important.  While I think we might be a bit better and more stable on the back end, we are going to be giving up a legitimate one and two on the front end.  The same game we might have been able to squeak 3-2 last year during a Fedde/Crochet start, turns into a 5-3 loss this year on the front end, while the game we lost 10-2 last year maybe turns into a 5-2 loss this year.  While advanced stats see the pitching production at the "same" by balancing out the loss of the most horrible starts with the loss of the best wins, with the complete lack of offense, I don't think it will translate into as many wins as it would if we had an offense that could score runs with other teams in MLB.  The only games we were really in last year were those quality starts. 

And I definitely don't think those guys survive the season in tact anyway.  There will definitely be periods of time where we get a lot of bad starts in a row, just like we saw last year as some of these guys through growing pains.  Injuries are going to happen for sure, as will some big ups and downs.

I am also still not convinced that the bullpen will be substantively better than last year, and with as many innings as they will be covering, there will still be a lot of really bad pitchers throwing a lot of innings.  This isn't going to be a lot of 7 innings and hand it to our 2 best pitchers to close (whoever those are this year).

Expand  

I think the 2025 bullpen will be a little better prepared with long men than 2024's. 

[caulfield12]

  On 3/18/2025 at 7:12 PM, WestEddy said:

I think the 2025 bullpen will be a little better prepared with long men than 2024's. 

Expand  

When that much veteran talent is off the roster from a year ago and Clevinger is your closer…color me skeptical.

Edited Tuesday at 07:16 PM by caulfield12

[Bob Sacamano]

Luis Robert has a great couple of months and is traded (potentially this year's Luis Arraez and traded early in season.

Davis Martin pitches great. Represents team at the All Star game.

Vargas has a surprisingly nice season.

Teel comes up and has a good showing for a first call up.

Sox trade Robert, Perez, B. Wilson, Murfee, one of the older lefties (Booser, Gilbert or both) and Tauchman. No one else.

Clevinger pitches decent out of pen. Other teams continue to want nothing to do with him.

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 07:36 PM by Bob Sacamano

[Snopek]

F*ck it. All Star Miguel Vargas.

[WhiteSox2023]

  On 3/18/2025 at 7:33 PM, Snopek said:

F*ck it. All Star Miguel Vargas.

Expand  

[WestEddy]

  On 3/18/2025 at 7:10 PM, caulfield12 said:

No I genuinely thought the ONLY you could possibly argue this rotation was equal or better was by including them in the second half of the season…at least Schultz and maybe Taylor if he continues evolving.

And this coming from a “huge massive immense” Shane Smith fan.

There’s just no way they are better after subtracting Crochet and Fedde.

That’s way too much high quality production to replace…without dipping into the Big 3 for corresponding talent.

Expand  

Crochet and Fedde had nothing to do with starts 3, 4 and 5 of the rotation. 

We ARE in a thread called, "Bold Predictions Thread". 

[TheBooneLoganEra]

I think this team was being crushed under the weight of the "worst team ever" last season in the 2nd half. I think there might be an early season bounce in performance just not playing with that weight. I think they flirt with .500 here and there in the first half before ultimately plunging mid season. And a second half bump from Schultz, Quero, Colson callups might provide some fun. 

It's probable to see wins in the 60s but if a lot goes right they could approach 70. If all goes wrong mid 50s. I'm choosing optimism at 70 W's. Commence throwing trash at me.

[Texsox]

Not so bold. 

Every time a Sox player is mentioned we'll think who? 🤔 

[T R U]

  On 3/18/2025 at 8:03 PM, TheBooneLoganEra said:

I think this team was being crushed under the weight of the "worst team ever" last season in the 2nd half. I think there might be an early season bounce in performance just not playing with that weight. I think they flirt with .500 here and there in the first half before ultimately plunging mid season. And a second half bump from Schultz, Quero, Colson callups might provide some fun. 

It's probable to see wins in the 60s but if a lot goes right they could approach 70. If all goes wrong mid 50s. I'm choosing optimism at 70 W's. Commence throwing trash at me.

Expand  

I think a bold prediction is they win 60 games. That would be a 19 game swing with arguably just as bad of a roster as they had in 2024. That would be pretty incredible.

[ptatc]

  On 3/18/2025 at 8:19 PM, T R U said:

I think a bold prediction is they win 60 games. That would be a 19 game swing with arguably just as bad of a roster as they had in 2024. That would be pretty incredible.

Expand  

Agreed, although i think the pitching will be better overall this year and that will help the win total.

Edited Tuesday at 08:27 PM by ptatc

[Quin]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:40 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This message board is so toxic, that I remember someone posting articles from Eaton or some other bum ripping Hermie and saying he was the worst in baseball. The guy had basically 2 decades as, by far, the goat for maintaining health, but his routines were bad or archaic or some nonsense. 

I'll still stand on the reason Chris Sale is still around today was because of how the Sox and Herm managed his shoulder and arm. 

I don't care if you thought Schneiders programs were from the stone age, results are undeniable. 

Since he's left too, we've been a dumpster fire.

Expand  

Re: Sale, I don't think it's a coincidence that the Red Sox put him out there with no restraints and he suddenly blew out.

It got them a World Series and I'm sure Sale thought he could handle it, but they may have been able to win more.

[zisk]

Andrew Benintendi ends up with a positive WAR. Maybe as high as 1.8. La Pantera stays healthy until traded.

Teel is called up early and does well. Sox end up winning more games than one other team.

[PaleAleSox]

  On 3/18/2025 at 8:19 PM, T R U said:

I think a bold prediction is they win 60 games. That would be a 19 game swing with arguably just as bad of a roster as they had in 2024. That would be pretty incredible.

Expand  

I don't think the roster was as bad ON PAPER to be the worst team ever last year. I think they had a horrendous start and the worst manager of all time trying to get them out of it with zero answers.

[WestEddy]

  On 3/18/2025 at 8:48 PM, PaleAleSox said:

I don't think the roster was as bad ON PAPER to be the worst team ever last year. I think they had a horrendous start and the worst manager of all time trying to get them out of it with zero answers.

Expand  

AND the top 3 offensive players were out for extended periods after 11 games. Somehow, we keep forgetting that. 

[T R U]

  On 3/18/2025 at 8:48 PM, PaleAleSox said:

I don't think the roster was as bad ON PAPER to be the worst team ever last year. I think they had a horrendous start and the worst manager of all time trying to get them out of it with zero answers.

Expand  

The 2024 team was dead last in runs scored, the second to worst team was almost 100 runs BETTER than the White Sox. Only the Marlins and Rockies had a worse team ERA than the Sox. 

They had a horrendous 3-22 start, and then went on to lose 21 games in a row several months later.. they were horrendous, consistently, all season long. They really were that bad.

[Johno]

55 wins

[southsider2k5]

  On 3/18/2025 at 5:40 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This message board is so toxic, that I remember someone posting articles from Eaton or some other bum ripping Hermie and saying he was the worst in baseball. The guy had basically 2 decades as, by far, the goat for maintaining health, but his routines were bad or archaic or some nonsense. 

I'll still stand on the reason Chris Sale is still around today was because of how the Sox and Herm managed his shoulder and arm. 

I don't care if you thought Schneiders programs were from the stone age, results are undeniable. 

Since he's left too, we've been a dumpster fire.

Expand  

Him and Don Cooper not pushing guys to go 100% with every pitch.

[southsider2k5]

  On 3/18/2025 at 8:53 PM, WestEddy said:

AND the top 3 offensive players were out for extended periods after 11 games. Somehow, we keep forgetting that. 

Expand  

And still haven't been replaced.

[southsider2k5]

  On 3/18/2025 at 8:48 PM, PaleAleSox said:

I don't think the roster was as bad ON PAPER to be the worst team ever last year. I think they had a horrendous start and the worst manager of all time trying to get them out of it with zero answers.

Expand  

Sure, but the overall talent on the roster is decently worse.

[tray]

IMO, Braden Montgomery will be up sometime this season. He looks like he has all the tools.