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Opening Day Angels/Sox 3/27...


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  On 3/27/2025 at 2:01 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

They will win 50+ games barring incredibly bad injury luck (which can happen)

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I mean, idk. This team is quite a bit worse on paper than last year's and anyone that plays over replacement level is and should be traded.  I think 50 wins is likely the ceiling, but as I said, I sure hope to see some watchable baseball and be pleasantly surprised - at least at the start of the season. 

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  On 3/27/2025 at 2:07 AM, Texsox said:

This is easily the least looked forwarded to opening day in my life. 

But with low expectations comes the opportunity of fun

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Before my time 1968 opener right after MLK riots before a sparse crowd and playing games in Milwaukee strikes me as worst year ever, with the team tanking after a painful lost pennant race in 1967. 

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  On 3/27/2025 at 2:14 PM, ChiSox59 said:

I mean, idk. This team is quite a bit worse on paper than last year's and anyone that plays over replacement level is and should be traded.  I think 50 wins is likely the ceiling, but as I said, I sure hope to see some watchable baseball and be pleasantly surprised - at least at the start of the season. 

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Everyone saying this team is worse on paper needs to remember the manager is on paper too. We don't know how Wil will be yet, but I think he will be heads and shoulders above Grifol. It's quite impossible to be worse. 

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  On 3/27/2025 at 2:36 PM, TheBooneLoganEra said:

Everyone saying this team is worse on paper needs to remember the manager is on paper too. We don't know how Wil will be yet, but I think he will be heads and shoulders above Grifol. It's quite impossible to be worse. 

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Also for as bad as the team was on paper last year, they peformed far worse than they were supposed to. There is almost zero chance Benintendi/Vaughn repeat their first half performances. Also Robert will hopefully not be injured.

Starters are worse, bullpen should be better. 

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  On 3/27/2025 at 2:14 PM, ChiSox59 said:

I mean, idk. This team is quite a bit worse on paper than last year's and anyone that plays over replacement level is and should be traded.  I think 50 wins is likely the ceiling, but as I said, I sure hope to see some watchable baseball and be pleasantly surprised - at least at the start of the season. 

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I think any interesting baseball played by the Sox is going to happen in August and September, when there are much more intriguing players on the roster. 

I personally have zero interest in the game today, or anything really related to the 26 man roster as currently constructed. Just nothing to get excited about, or make me feel like I'm watching a single player that is going to make an impact with the Sox in 3-4 years. 

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  On 3/27/2025 at 2:14 PM, ChiSox59 said:

I mean, idk. This team is quite a bit worse on paper than last year's and anyone that plays over replacement level is and should be traded.  I think 50 wins is likely the ceiling, but as I said, I sure hope to see some watchable baseball and be pleasantly surprised - at least at the start of the season. 

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I know people keep repeating "luck", but after dumping two of the best pitchers in baseball, I don't think our "luck" is going to get any better.  It looked like bad baseball, by bad players to me, and I don't see anyone on the roster right now that really is going to change that appreciably.  Some guys will be up, but we still lack major league starters at almost every single position on the field, and that only gets worse when the inevitable loss of Luis Robert happens to either trade or injury.  We may start to get some interesting players as the season goes on, but it will be fighting wildfires with a garden hose.

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  On 3/27/2025 at 3:01 PM, southsider2k5 said:

I know people keep repeating "luck", but after dumping two of the best pitchers in baseball, I don't think our "luck" is going to get any better.  It looked like bad baseball, by bad players to me, and I don't see anyone on the roster right now that really is going to change that appreciably.  Some guys will be up, but we still lack major league starters at almost every single position on the field, and that only gets worse when the inevitable loss of Luis Robert happens to either trade or injury.  We may start to get some interesting players as the season goes on, but it will be fighting wildfires with a garden hose.

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My son's select 17U team played a team last Fall that, due to injuries or other reasons, had to field and pitch players from its 12U/13U teams.

I feel the White Sox season will go about the same way as it did for that team.

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  On 3/27/2025 at 3:16 PM, RibbieRubarb said:

My son's select 17U team played a team last Fall that, due to injuries or other reasons, had to field and pitch players from its 12U/13U teams.

I feel the White Sox season will go about the same way as it did for that team.

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I can help but thinking most of these algorithms are written with smoothing techniques which have problems with outliers.  It is a pretty common issue with statistical modeling.  Because models don't have an example of any of an extreme of an outlier as the Sox last season, they assume it can't happen again, but with a little bit more consideration to maybe it could, and will spit out a result that is still probably too optimistic based on what has actually happened with this team in the last season in terms of boots on the ground.  This was a 121 loss team, which season over season, has seen a pretty decent outflow of talent.

Your example in terms of talent actually isn't a bad comparison to what the Sox are seeing.  They are fielding a team that models probably can't really comprehend when compared with all of the other examples the model has to base it's historical analysis on.  It wouldn't expect 12 year old on a 17 year old team, just like it wouldn't expect what happened last year to the Sox to happen again, even though on paper, today, this team is worse overall.

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  On 3/27/2025 at 3:23 PM, southsider2k5 said:

I can help but thinking most of these algorithms are written with smoothing techniques which have problems with outliers.  It is a pretty common issue with statistical modeling.  Because models don't have an example of any of an extreme of an outlier as the Sox last season, they assume it can't happen again, but with a little bit more consideration to maybe it could, and will spit out a result that is still probably too optimistic based on what has actually happened with this team in the last season in terms of boots on the ground.  This was a 121 loss team, which season over season, has seen a pretty decent outflow of talent.

Your example in terms of talent actually isn't a bad comparison to what the Sox are seeing.  They are fielding a team that models probably can't really comprehend when compared with all of the other examples the model has to base it's historical analysis on.  It wouldn't expect 12 year old on a 17 year old team, just like it wouldn't expect what happened last year to the Sox to happen again, even though on paper, today, this team is worse overall.

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Image of you use your tongue prettier than a $20 whore.

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