caulfield12 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 2:37 AM, southsider2k5 said: Expand IF ONLY the White Sox could actually spend that $173.8 million on improving their team and/or infrastructure...but we're stuck waiting on Ishbia. And maybe that money has to be invested into a new stadium project instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 2:37 AM, southsider2k5 said: Expand Ah, poor babies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegner Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 2:07 AM, Look at Ray Ray Run said: If he stays healthy he's worth 300+ million easily. Expand That's a pretty big If imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 2:40 AM, chitownsportsfan said: Ah, poor babies. Expand I'm confused by that tweet. Wouldn't it be worse if they traded those players AND only had crochet for 2 years? @wegner, i actually don't think Crochet has much in additional risk comparatively to most other arms. The velocity is the risk, but his motion has him moving downhill so aggressively, one could probably argue that limits the stress on the arm a bit. Everyone is risky. In his mid 20s, wheeler was considered a big injury risk and in his late 20s and 30s he's been the most durable arm in the game. Injuries are so unpredictable. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 2:48 AM, wegner said: That's a pretty big If imo. Expand Yeah, I will be the first to saying it. Even after coming this close to what it would take to extend Garrett, I am also glad we don't have to keep him healthy going forward. Give me the return we got, plus the ability for FNG to spend post Jerry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCalChiSox Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Good for him. He cashed in at the right time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Max Fried got more than that and Crochet's a better pitcher than Fried. But, Crochet has never pitched an unencumbered full-season; Crochet may have been able to get more by waiting but there is risk to doing that and even last year, Crochet was wanting to sign an extension. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 3:18 AM, southsider2k5 said: Yeah, I will be the first to saying it. Even after coming this close to what it would take to extend Garrett, I am also glad we don't have to keep him healthy going forward. Give me the return we got, plus the ability for FNG to spend post Jerry. Expand Don't think FNG is quite as well known (yet) with the locals in Chicago as Guggenheim in LA or The Carlyle Group in Baltimore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 1:39 AM, chitownsportsfan said: Feels like he left a lot of money on the table. That's a 2019 type extension... Quick maths say he puts up a conservative 15 WAR over the next 6 years that's still only like $13/million per win over replacement. If he balls out and puts up like 25 WAR Red Sox have one of the best ace contracts in baseball. Expand It is buying out some years though and there is quite some injury risk. It could easily turn into a big bargain if crochet holds up but 170 m is serious money, that is not likely that Scott kingery extension back then where he got 20 m and you say who cares if he busts. It basically is an insurance for crochet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
46DidIt Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 2:11 AM, Look at Ray Ray Run said: The amazing thing is garrett only has to be healthy for about 3 years at his level of talent to be worth his contract. Expand You're telling me 4 WAR seasons are worth 56 million per now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 (edited) On 4/1/2025 at 7:21 AM, 46DidIt said: You're telling me 4 WAR seasons are worth 56 million per now? Expand No, merely that three 7-8 fWAR seasons and the rest of the contract Crochet out for medical reasons would still technically be worth the return on investment. Obviously that's a Cy Young bar to reach though. Kind of similar to what the Red Sox faced with the Chris Sale contract. Don't think he had 21-24 fWAR for them, though. Something like 20.5. Edited April 1 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
46DidIt Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 1:39 AM, chitownsportsfan said: that's still only like $13/million per win over replacement. Expand So someone like Jose Quintana should be make around 35 million a year? Not sure where youre getting your maths. If I had twenty six 1 WAR players, I'd have a 330 million dollar payroll and a 74 win team, according to WAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
46DidIt Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 7:25 AM, caulfield12 said: No, merely that three 7-8 fWAR seasons and the rest of the contract Crochet out for medical reasons would still technically be worth the return on investment. Obviously that's a Cy Young bar to reach though. Kind of similar to what the Red Sox faced with the Chris Sale contract. Don't think he had 21-24 fWAR for them, though. Expand Where you getting 7-8 WAR from? His career high is 4.1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
46DidIt Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Sale never even had a 7 WAR season, but he had many seasons significantly better than any Crochett has had Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 (edited) On 4/1/2025 at 7:30 AM, 46DidIt said: Where you getting 7-8 WAR from? His career high is 4.1 Expand That's what he would have to do...pitching 180-210 innings per season at his 2024 ratios to reach those elite production numbers. I think it's probably more realistic to argue 4 years of elite/Cy Young production and three years on the shelf with injuries to justify the deal...or a WS title. 5.5-7.0 fWAR for those four seasons. Edited April 1 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiSox59 Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 1:57 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: You can either take $170M or risk it all while you make $20M combined (maybe) in 2025 and 2026 and if you have a major injury in that time you lose a huge chunk of change .Not sure what his Arb salaries would have been for those 2 yrs. This is when smart players who don't get too greedy get out the scales and say yeah I'll take $170M right now thank you. Expand Crochet is making $3.6M this year. He won't make more than $10M next year even if he wins the Cy. If his arm blows up over his next 65 starts, which is extremely likely IMO, he's never even coming close to sniffing that kind of money. I think this is a great deal for Garrett and one with significant risk for the Red Sox. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bighurt574 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 (edited) Seems like a reasonable deal for both sides. There’s obviously injury risk but BOS is getting an ace level pitcher in his prime years for around $30M/year on the extension. We’re going to have to give out similar contracts at some point here (after Jerry is gone) if we ever want to compete. Edited April 1 by bighurt574 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hogan873 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Seems like a good deal for Crochet, and a good deal for Boston if he stays healthy. There's obviously an injury risk, but he's a damn good pitcher when healthy. Good for him. On paper, the trade looked good for the Sox, so this might actually end up being a win/win. That is, until Teel and/or Montgomery are budding superstars and traded for prospects in a few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestEddy Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 (edited) On 4/1/2025 at 7:29 AM, 46DidIt said: So someone like Jose Quintana should be make around 35 million a year? Not sure where youre getting your maths. If I had twenty six 1 WAR players, I'd have a 330 million dollar payroll and a 74 win team, according to WAR. Expand I believe you can figure it on a sliding scale. The first win should be worth about $7M. Depending on the FA year, subsequent wins can be worth $9M to $13M. And bringing up Quintana, that's why it's being said that age is the new market inefficiency. You can pick up these 35 year old guys who are still perfectly serviceable for low salaries. Edited April 1 by WestEddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 7:21 AM, 46DidIt said: You're telling me 4 WAR seasons are worth 56 million per now? Expand Crochet is/was worth about 6.5 war per 200 IP. That's worth roughly 70 million a year. If you want to get conservative, let's say 180 innings and 5.8. That's worth about 60 million. He does that 3 times and he has a 10 million dollar surplus. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 7:29 AM, 46DidIt said: So someone like Jose Quintana should be make around 35 million a year? Not sure where youre getting your maths. If I had twenty six 1 WAR players, I'd have a 330 million dollar payroll and a 74 win team, according to WAR. Expand WAR values don't scale normally. 1 war isn't worth 10 million but 5 war is worth 50 million due to scarcity of players at that level. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
46DidIt Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 2:38 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said: WAR values don't scale normally. 1 war isn't worth 10 million but 5 war is worth 50 million due to scarcity of players at that level. Expand Yeah that was kind of my point in that response, that it wouldn't be a linear value as stated in post I replied to. (13m/WAR) Still not buying that 5 WAR is worth 50 million a year though. If the Sox signed a 5 WAR player to 50 million a year, would that result in an extra 50+ million in yearly revenue? I have my doubts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joejoesox Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 yeah it's way too soon to extend him at 28+mil a year, I wouldve waited until like September at the earliest good for him though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
46DidIt Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 2:36 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said: Crochet is/was worth about 6.5 war per 200 IP. That's worth roughly 70 million a year. If you want to get conservative, let's say 180 innings and 5.8. That's worth about 60 million. He does that 3 times and he has a 10 million dollar surplus. Expand Wouldn't the value be based on the actual performance rather than a hypothetical rate. I'd think you'd have to actually pitch those 200 innings for them to have value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Look at Ray Ray Run Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 On 4/1/2025 at 3:30 PM, 46DidIt said: Wouldn't the value be based on the actual performance rather than a hypothetical rate. I'd think you'd have to actually pitch those 200 innings for them to have value Expand Well, last year was his first year starting and he threw 150 innings. The team signing him certainly expects more than that going forward. Additionally, if he'd done this three years in a row this contract wouldn't be happening anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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