Winter Meetin Predictions

[DBAHO]

Guess what? Not much on us! Suprised?

 

One general manager predicts that this weekend's winter meetings will be "wild," a madcap bazaar of trades and free-agent signings.

 

 

 

The G.M.'s reasoning: "Nothing has happened yet." And he makes that point knowing that Derrek Lee, Curt Schilling and Richie Sexson already have been traded.

 

 

Wacky New Orleans is a fitting setting for a frenzied baseball convention. Agents will prowl the lobby of the host hotel, looking to place a dizzying number of free agents. General managers will experience a unique form of torture, pulling all-nighters without ever seeing the French Quarter.

 

 

The owners need not worry: A spending orgy isn't about to occur in a rigged -- er, depressed -- free-agent market. But virtually every team is motivated to satisfy budgetary goals, competitive impulses or both. In forming these predictions, I came to realize that even the most outlandish possibilities no longer seem far-fetched.

 

 

A-Rod will be traded. The Red Sox already have improved significantly by adding Curt Schilling as a co-ace. A trade for Alex Rodriguez would make him their best player since Ted Williams, and the team would reap an addition-by-subtraction benefit with the departures of clueless slugger Manny Ramirez and clubhouse downer Nomar Garciaparra.

 

I've got a dollar bet with a general manager that a Rodriguez trade will happen, though I may need to accept a deferred payment because the G.M. is with a low-revenue club. Rodriguez even could polish his image by restructuring his $252 million contract to ease the Red Sox's burden, though Mike Hampton didn't sacrifice a cent when he escaped Colorado.

 

 

The Rangers want payroll relief. The Red Sox want Ramirez relief. And Rodriguez wants to win. The Sox will need to cut corners in other areas if they add Rodriguez and take back a salary for Garciaparra. Given their needs for a closer and second baseman, they figure to be active even if the trade collapses.

 

 

The Yankees' payroll will exceed $200 million. Is there any doubt? The bullpen alone figures to be a $25 million ensemble. And once the Yankees are finished re-signing Andy Pettitte and/or trading for the Dodgers' Kevin Brown, owner George Steinbrenner will run out of zeroes on his calculator.

 

The Marlins' upset of the Yankees in the World Series prompted the latest Steinbrenner rampage, and the Red Sox's acquisition of Schilling ensured that it would reach epic proportions. Free-agent relievers Tom Gordon and Paul Quantrill were coveted by several clubs. The Yankees scooped them up like appetizers.

 

 

Look at the bright side: The Yankees' penalty for exceeding the luxury-tax threshold next season might be higher than the Brewers' payroll.

 

 

The Brewers will keep left fielder Geoff Jenkins. The trade of Sexson enables the Brewers to afford Jenkins, who will be paid $8.25 million next season. General manager Doug Melvin will attempt to sign Jenkins to an extension, then explore trades at midseason if no deal is reached. Moving Jenkins now, Melvin says, "would tear our big club apart."

 

The Brewers failed to land any of the Diamondbacks' top youngsters for Sexson, but the six players they acquired could form 24 percent of their roster -- an impressive coup, considering that teams rarely get value for high-priced stars entering their walk years. The Expos, for example, have traded ace pitchers Bartolo Colon and Javier Vazquez the past two offseasons for little more than first baseman Nick Johnson.

 

 

If the Brewers make another trade, it likely will involve second baseman Junior Spivey. Melvin would move Spivey for an affordable, productive outfielder such as the Indians' Jody Gerut or the Orioles' Larry Bigbie, but neither is available.

 

 

The Scott Boras show will be canceled. Never again will the Lex Luthor of agents secure megadeals for the likes of Chan Ho Park. Even though he represents some of the biggest names on the market -- Ivan Rodriguez, Greg Maddux and Kevin Millwood -- Boras isn't going to fulfill his grandiose expectations the way he has in the past.

 

The climate is much different than when Boras crafted his A-Rod masterpiece three years ago. The luxury-tax threshold inhibits the spending of some clubs. The sputtering economy limits others. And the owners are controlling the market as never before, flooding it with players and in most cases dictating terms.

 

 

Rodriguez wanted to stay with the Marlins, but the team balked at his request for a four-year, $40 million contract. The Marlins began at two years with a reduction in salary (Rodriguez made $10 million last season.) Maddux likely will take a significant cut from his $14.75 million salary in a short-term deal, and Millwood won't command the five-year contract Boras is seeking.

 

 

The Orioles will snap out of it. Never mind that owner Peter Angelos has a history of obstructing deals, that executive vice president Jim Beattie irritates some G.M.s and agents with his inflexibility and that free agents routinely shun Baltimore for better options.

 

The Orioles have at least $30 million to spend and outfielder Vladimir Guerrero and catcher Javy Lopez are two of their primary free-agent targets. Six straight losing seasons have produced six straight years of declining attendance. Maybe the Orioles can't become contenders next season, but they need to start winning back their fans.

 

 

The O's have numerous holes, but there is no excuse for this team not to markedly improve.

 

 

The Mariners will sign Miguel Tejada. The Tigers want Tejada, but they're about as desirable a suitor as Hannibal Lecter. The Mariners, offering a three-year contract, are Tejada's best option. His signing would placate fans who question the Seattle ownership's commitment and would deliver a painful blow to the division rival A's.

 

The Mariners ranked 18th in the majors last season in on-base/slugging percentage (OPS) at shortstop. Assuming they purge third baseman Jeff Cirillo, think of how much better they would be with Tejada at short, Carlos Guillen at third and free-agent addition Raul Ibanez playing left field.

 

 

The Cardinals will trade outfielder J.D. Drew. What choice does St. Louis have? G.M. Walt Jocketty has talked about reconfiguring his payroll so he can spend more on pitching. He discussed trading center fielder Jim Edmonds, a center fielder, earlier this offseason, but the possibility of moving Edmonds, who is owed $34 million over the next three seasons, no longer is realistic because he recently underwent shoulder surgery.

 

Drew's injury history is its own deterrent, raising questions about his reliability. He will be paid about $5 million next season, then become a free agent. The Braves like him but might prefer to sign a free agent rather than lose talent in a trade. The Diamondbacks offered closer Matt Mantei for Drew, but the Cardinals wouldn't bite. The Expos probably will keep Livan Hernandez now that they've traded Vazquez.

 

 

Jocketty faces a daunting challenge: He needs to restock his entire pitching staff. The rotation -- headed by Matt Morris, Woody Williams and Chris Carpenter -- isn't nearly good enough.

 

 

Serviceable players will emerge in the Rule 5 draft. Teams crave affordable talent, and the Rule 5 draft is one of the best places to find minimum-salary bargains. Last year's draft was especially productive: Eight of the pitching selections combined for a 4.46 ERA in 587 innings, almost all in relief. Luis Ayala was the Expos' best reliever; Aquilino Lopez the Blue Jays'.

 

A player becomes eligible for the draft when his team fails to protect him on its 40-man roster. Rule 5 picks cost only $50,000 but must remain on the 25-man major league roster all season or be offered back to their original clubs for $25,000.

 

 

The Orioles' best young hitter, Jay Gibbons, was a Rule 5 pick in 2000.

 

 

The Twins will remain favorites to win the A.L. Central. Perhaps no team was in as difficult a spot as the Twins entering last Sunday's deadline for offering salary arbitration to their free agents. The Twins had to trade catcher A.J. Pierzynski and lefthander Eric Milton and let reliever LaTroy Hawkins sign elsewhere just to create the opportunity to re-sign left fielder Shannon Stewart.

 

Then again, the White Sox also face significant defections, and the Royals are trying to patch with aging veterans. The Twins need at least one starting pitcher, but the depth of talent in their organization gives them the option to trade right fielder Jacque Jones and/or first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz.

 

 

G.M. Terry Ryan already has shown that he isn't afraid to make tough decisions.

 

 

The party won't stop in New Orleans. December 20 is the deadline for teams to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible players. Mariners pitcher Freddy Garcia, Marlins outfielder Juan Encarnacion and Expos catcher Michael Barrett are among the players who could become free agents on that date, further swelling the market.

 

Clubs can wait until January and even February and still sign accomplished veterans. Consider this list of position players who remain secondary choices for most teams:

 

 

Catcher: Brent Mayne. First base: Travis Lee, Scott Spiezio.

 

Second base: Pokey Reese, Eric Young. Shortstop: Rich Aurilia.

 

Third base: Tony Batista, Chris Stynes. Outfielders: Jeromy Burnitz, Carl Everett, Juan Gonzalez.

 

Designated hitters: Ellis Burks, Ruben Sierra. Starting pitchers: Wilson Alvarez, Cory Lidle, Darren Oliver, Rick Reed, Kenny Rogers.

 

Relievers: Armando Benitez, Mike DeJean, Roberto Hernandez, Kerry Ligtenberg, Steve Reed.

 

And he's a dumbass for puttin Lightenberg on his list as well.