Jackson scouting report

[southsider2k5]

I know this was one of the possible guys mentioned in the possible LA leg of the Maggs trade. This is the scouting report on him from baseball america. If anyone is a subscriber, could they post the report on Miller? Thanks.

 

Top Prospect: Edwin Jackson, RHP

 

Age: 20 Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 190 Bats: R Throws: R

Drafted: HS—Columbus, Ga., 2001 (6th round)

Signed by: Lon Joyce/Jim Lester

 

Background: First spotted by Dodgers scouts Jim Lester (now with the Pirates) and Lon Joyce when he was a center fielder at Shaw High in Columbus, Ga., Jackson also was the No. 3 starter behind Nick Long, now an Expos prospect, and Steven Register, now Auburn’s closer. Jackson reached 91 mph at the time, but Joyce’s first instinct was to make the most of his athleticism and bat potential in the outfield. The Dodgers weren’t sure which direction his career would head, so they allowed him to DH when he wasn’t pitching during in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2001. They abandoned any thoughts of developing him as an outfielder the following spring, and his career took off. After beginning 2002 in extended spring training, Jackson jumped to low Class A South Georgia. He carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his first start and fell seven innings short of qualifying for the South Atlantic League ERA title, which he would have won. Jackson skipped another level to start the 2003 season as one of the youngest pitchers in Double-A. He became the youngest pitcher since Dwight Gooden to win his major league debut when he beat Randy Johnson in September.

 

Strengths: Jackson’s picturesque delivery, clean arm action and premium athleticism aid him in making 98 mph fastballs look effortless. He sits between 91-97 and can maintain his velocity deep into games. His slider and changeup both have come a long way since he made the full-time conversion to pitching, and while he’s not consistent with his secondary pitches he flashes above-average potential with both offerings. Each of his three pitches features plus life, with his fastball boring up into the zone, his slider showing hard bite and depth at times, and his circle changeup fading and sinking. Jackson demonstrates an advanced feel for pitching too, not afraid to pitch inside or double up on sliders and changeups. The Dodgers have done a fine job limiting Jackson’s workload. He was limited to around 100 pitches a start, and he was scratched from the Arizona Fall League to avoid putting more innings on his arm.

 

Weaknesses: Jackson has been unfazed by his rapid ascent. He still needs to gain consistency and confidence with his slider and changeup. Like many strikeout pitchers, he can amass lofty pitch counts. With three potential out pitches and plus command, that shouldn’t be an issue for long.

 

The Future: Jackson is the complete package, and fits the profile of a top-of-the-line starting pitcher to a tee. He established himself as one of the elite prospects in baseball even before his September callup, and his performance all but guaranteed him a spot in the Los Angeles rotation for 2004. He’s the best homegrown pitching prospect the Dodgers have developed since Pedro Martinez, and they don’t plan on letting this one get away.

[mmmmmbeeer]

wow, that is very attractive.

Which is precisely why we'd never pry him away from LA.

[Chisoxfn]

Folks him and Miller would be the best pitching prospects the Sox have seen in the past 10 years, mark my words on that.

 

They are like 2 levels above Honel if you ask me. The ball just jumps out of Jackson's hand and when you see him pitch your just like oh s***.

[LostInBoston]

Screw Nomah - I want this guy...

[Gene Honda Civic]

Me likey --- I just want this ARod/manny deal to go down so it frees up options for us.

[israel4ever]

Chisxfn:

 

Better than Ruffin and Ruffcorn???

 

[BrandoFan]

Jason, would you settle for Jackson AND Miller for Magglio? It's clear they ain't giving up Mota, unless it's for Honel and Cotts and Sox are in NO position to give away their best, cheap talent for a 31-yo reliever with only ONE non-terrible year in his career.

[whitesox61382]

Jason,  would you settle for Jackson AND Miller for Magglio? It's clear they ain't giving up Mota, unless it's for Honel and Cotts and Sox are in NO position to give away their best, cheap talent for a 31-yo reliever with only ONE non-terrible year in his career.

Miller and Jackson for Maggs would be an unbelievable deal. Not only do the Sox get possible 2 of the top 5 pitching prospects IN BASEBALL, but they would free up ALL of Maggs 14M, which could then be sent on other needs. Any Sox fan that wouldn't do that deal is semi-retarded. The only problem is that there is no way that LA would even THINK about doing that deal, thats how one sided it is. If the Sox are lucky they will get Perez and one of Miller/Jackson for Maggs/Nomar. That Perez, Mota, and 2 top prospects(one being either Jackson/Miller) was pure speculation/wishful thinking from local papers/fans. LA would probably laugh at such of a deal.

[MurcieOne]

wow, that is very attractive.

You think thats attractive... wait till you see him in tighty-whities!

[chosk8]

2. Greg Miller, lhp

 

Age: 19. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 190.

Drafted: HS—Lakewood, Calif., 2002 (1st round supplemental).

Signed by: Scott Groot.

 

Background: Several Dodgers scouts say Miller is even better than Edwin Jackson. After going 2-2, 5.03 in his first six starts, Miller dominated the high Class A Florida State League and earned a promotion to Double-A Jacksonville as an 18-year-old.

 

Strengths: Miller’s velocity has increased from the mid-80s in high school to the low 90s, and he regularly hit 95 mph in 2003. His power curveball is among the best in the organization, and he added a cutter that has morphed into a nasty slider. His average changeup gives a fourth pitch with which to attack hitters. He completes the package with command, intelligence and uncanny poise.

 

Weaknesses: Miller’s season ended with shoulder bursitis, and some wonder if the stress of throwing a slider contributed to his problems. Other than staying healthy, he has little to work on.

 

The Future: Though the Dodgers opted for Jackson when Hideo Nomo got hurt, Miller got serious consideration for a September spot start. He’ll be given an outside chance to make the big league rotation in the spring, but most likely will return to Double-A.

[Cerbaho-WG]

I am a subscriber to BA, but only the print edition. I'll type out what it says:

 

Greg Miller - LHP, Age 19 as of Opening Day 2004, B-T: L-L, Wt: 190, 1st Round out of Lakewood, Calif. HS.

 

Went 2-2 5.03 ERA after his first six starts, then became almost unhittable. Went to AA as an 18 year old.

 

Can hit 95 MPH on his fastball, although it sits in the low 90s. Has the best curveball and slider in the Dodgers organization. Has an average changeup, but it's effective.

 

Ended the season with shoulder bursitis, so there is some worry.

 

Came close to being called up over Jackson last year.

 

Stats:

Hi A- 21 GS 116 IP 103 H 41 BB 111 SO 2.49 ERA .240 OBA

AA- 4 GS 27 IP 15 H 7 BB 40 SO 1.01 ERA .156 OBA

[BrandoFan]

Miller and Jackson for Maggs would be an unbelievable deal. Not only do the Sox get possible 2 of the top 5 pitching prospects IN BASEBALL, but they would free up ALL of Maggs 14M, which could then be sent on other needs. Any Sox fan that wouldn't do that deal is semi-retarded. The only problem is that there is no way that LA would even THINK about doing that deal, thats how one sided it is. If the Sox are lucky they will get Perez and one of Miller/Jackson for Maggs/Nomar. That Perez, Mota, and 2 top prospects(one being either Jackson/Miller) was pure speculation/wishful thinking from local papers/fans. LA would probably laugh at such of a deal.

I understand that Evans would be raped big time on the deal, BUT:

 

1. We can do him a favor and take the overrated Perez and his arbitration salary off his hands.

 

2. I have heard way too much about "can't miss prospects" in the last 5 years, and other than Mark Prior, Josh Beckett and maybe Kerry Wood, none of them blew my socks off. So let's say it's 5 out 25 that have fullfilled their "front-line starter" potential. 20% odds? And it's way more than 25 (more like 00) pitchers that have been tagged with "front-line stuff" label from when they were in their high-teens in that span.....

 

3. Miller is 19 and Jackson is 20. Health concerns aside, the former had very human numbers in A-ball while the latter is yet to throw in AAA and still has WAYS to go before his slider, change and command are that of a good major leaguer......How many pitchers do you know who could come in the MAJORS before they were 22 and have a sub-4.00 ERA RIGHT AWAY.........Prior? Sabathia? Chances are, netiher Jackson and especially Miller will able to help the Sox in ANY way shape or form not only in 2004 but very possibly in 2005 as well........I am sorry, but Sox are kinda in a MUST-WIN-NOW situation, we can't be looking to 2006 or we won't have any fans/cash flow left by then...........Meanwhile, time is running out on Danny Evans as well and Vlad Guerrero is sure AIN'T coming in 2004........Qauntrill is gone, so is Kevin Brown, Alvarez is a HUGE question mark, all kinds of problems with LaDuca, Jordan, McGriff, Ventura, Henderson, Green....... and Perez? Puhlease, of this dude puts up a Garland-esque 4.25 ERA for the Sox, we'll be lucky.

 

4. There is always a chance we throw older (read: cheap bullpen help if anything else) Diaz and Pacheco or Wing in as well, so Maggs for Perez, Jackson and Miller, while certainly on the crazy side, is not TOO crazy if you look at the bigger picture.

 

Incidentally, I don't think Mota is Mariano Rivera, either.

[Chisoxfn]

Jason,  would you settle for Jackson AND Miller for Magglio? It's clear they ain't giving up Mota, unless it's for Honel and Cotts and Sox are in NO position to give away their best, cheap talent for a 31-yo reliever with only ONE non-terrible year in his career.

Yes I would. These guys are legit studs. Its not like the overhyped stuff we have had. Some prospects are overhyped, others aren't. KW doesn't overhype prospects so I don't believe we have any prospect overhyped right now.

 

And ya, they are way better then Ruffcorn...these guys stuff is flat out electric. You could seriously compare Miller to Randy Johnson (Minus the height) in the terms of the kind of pitcher he could become.

 

I'm not one to overhype prospetcs, I think Rauch is mediocre and I think a lot of the Sox prospects are mediocre.

[israel4ever]

Chisoxfn...I was just messin' with ya...for years the Sox have always claimed to have these great pitching prospects, that never amount to nothing. See Ruffin, Ruffcorn, Baldwin, Parque, Sirotka, all servicable (at best) pitchers!

 

:fthecubs

[BrandoFan]

You could seriously compare Miller to Randy Johnson (Minus the height) in the terms of the kind of pitcher he could become.

 

1. If you take 5mph off his fastball, he is Randy Johnson alright.

 

2. Randy Johnson was s*** until at least mid-20s.....does this mean Miller will be a stud by 2008? Nevada White Sox will be happy to hear that.

[Chisoxfn]

1. If you take 5mph off his fastball, he is Randy Johnson alright.

 

2. Randy Johnson was s*** until at least mid-20s.....does this mean Miller will be a stud by 2008? Nevada White Sox will be happy to hear that.

I was comparing him to Johnson soley in the fact that he's the most dominant lefty I can think of. His velocity is a bit better then Zito and Mulder so I didn't want to mention there names. He's dominant in another fashion, although I could care less if my pitcher is craft dominant or nasty dominant...one has hard stuff and dominates, the other softer stuff.

 

He could be a front line lefty, which is really difficult to find and my fascination will Edwin Jackson is there. This guy will be absolutely dynamite. His fastball just jumps at ya and his secondary pitches have some exceptional movement as well.

[whitesox61382]

I understand that Evans would be raped big time on the deal, BUT:

 

1.  We can do him a favor and take the overrated Perez and his arbitration salary off his hands. 

 

2.  I have heard way too much about "can't miss prospects" in the last 5 years, and other than Mark Prior, Josh Beckett and maybe Kerry Wood, none of them blew my socks off. So let's say it's 5 out 25 that have fullfilled their "front-line starter" potential.  20%?

 

3.  Miller is 19 and Jackson is 20.  Health concerns aside, the former had very human minbers in A-ball while the latter is yet to throw in AAA and still has WAYS to go before his slider, change and command are that of a good major leaguer......How many pitchers do you know who could come in the MAJORS before they were 22 and have a sub-4.00 ERA RIGHT AWAY.........Prior?  Sabathia? Chances are, netiher Jackson and especially Miller will able to help the Sox in ANY way shape or form not only in 2004 but very possibly in 2005 as well........I am sorry, but Sox are kinda in a MUST-WIN-NOW situation, we can't be looking to 2006 or we won't have any fans/cash flow left by then...........Meanwhile, time is running out on Danny Evans as well and Vlad Guerrero is sure AIN'T coming in 2004........Qauntrill is gone, so is Kevin Brown, Alvarez is a HUGE question mark, all kinds of problems with LaDuca, Jordan, McGriff, Jordan, Ventura....... and Perez?  Puhlease, of this dude puts up a Garland-esque 4.25 ERA for the Sox, we'll be lucky.   

 

4.  There is always a chance we throw older (read: cheap bullpen help if anything else) Diaz and Pacheco or Wing in as well, so Maggs for Perez, Jackson and Miller, while  certainly on the crazy side, is not TOO crazy if you look at the bigger picture.   

 

Incidentally, I don't think Mota is Mariano Rivera, either.

I am not a huge fan of Perez either, and do think he is overrated, but he still has a decent shot of being a solid middle of the rotation starter next year. I base this on his raw stuff and decent overall numbers(H/IP, BB/IP, SO/IP, ect.).

 

There have been few can't miss prospects of Miller and Jackson's calibur. Most scouts feel that both are going to be similar to Prior with their ability to come into the majors and dominate from day 1(even at 20, 21, 22). You need to follow the majors a little more closely, because Jackson actually pitched in the majors last year and is right now scheduled to be in the starting rotation, so I don't know where you are pull this they won't help in any way for 2004. Furthermore, in a small sample size, Jackson was pure dominating in his couple of starts at the end of the year(a sign of things to come). He could easily win the 5th starters job and put together a very impressive season. Miller was also considered being called up at the end of last year before they decided to call up Jackson instead. Miller probably needs a little time in the minors, but he certainly does have the stuff and command to play a major role sometime in 2004. Please don't let their age fool you. That is one of the reasons that these two are unique cant miss prospects and compare favorable to Prior.

 

There is no way that Evans gives up both Miller and Jackson at this point. Prospects are unproven potential, but prospects of these calibur are very rare, especially in a deal that could net you a player for only one year.

 

Mota is a great pitcher. Sure it took him a while to develop, and it was his first great year, but if you have seen this guy pitch you would understand why Evans doesn't want to give him up and why KW is pushing hard to get him. You might find a couple of scouts that would argue that Mota's stuff is actually better then Rivera.

[BrandoFan]

You need to follow the majors a little more closely, because Jackson actually pitched in the majors last year and is right now scheduled to be in the starting rotation

 

I know he got a cup of coffee when Dodgers were out of it. No pressure and his WHIP was was still roughly 1.30, which is NOTHING special given the circumstances. Trust me, he has WAYS to go (check out his AA numbers that are far from spectacular either) to hone his command and breaking repertoir......before he even has a CHANCE to realize his potential. The hype is sickening.

 

It's laughable to think either of these two studs will do ANYTHING in 2004 to help the Sox and most likely in 2005 as well. Where I come from there is such a thing as a learing curve, an adjustment and maturation period; even Pedro didn't become "Pedro" until about 25-26yo, and other than Prior and Wood (one was 22 and the other 21, not 19 and 20), NOBODY comes into the league, especially such a merciless place as LA and dominates right off the bat. Look how much trouble Rich Harden ran into when called up without having polished breaking stuff, and he absolutely BLEW everybody away in the minor leagues (none of that 3.80 ERA in AA nonsense Jackson put out or nearly as many hits as innings pitched that Miller had in SINGLE A in 2003)........I am looking at it from the Sox short-term perspective as well, and perspective of waiting till 2006 doesn't thrill me.

 

Does history not teach you anything? Look at Shilling, Pedro, Brown, Hudson, Maddux, Mulder, Unit, Beckett, Clemens, Zito, Mussina, Prior-- they were ALL anywhere from 22 to 26 when they realized their "front-line starter" potential. Not 19. Not 20..........And those 12 pitchers I mentioned, mind you, are absolute CREAM of the crop of the last 2 decades, and it's HIGHTLY unlikely either Jackson OR Miller will touch them EVER....94 mph fastball or not. Simplistic arguement you say? Perhaps, but truth is often very simple.

 

Besides, I agreed with you that it's way out there to think we can get both of them.

 

31yo Guillermo Mota is a "great pitcher" now? You don't mince words do you?

[whitesox61382]

I know he got a cup of coffee when Dodgers were out of it. No pressure and his WHIP was was still roughly 1.30, which is NOTHING special given the circumstances. Trust me, he has WAYS to go (check out his AA numbers that are far from spectacular either) to hone his command and breaking repertoir......before he even has a CHANCE to realize his potential.  The hype is sickening.

 

It's laughable to think either of these two studs will do ANYTHING in 2004 to help the Sox and most likely in 2005 as well. Where I come from there is such a thing as a learing curve, an adjustment and maturation period; even Pedro didn't become "Pedro" until about 25-26yo, and other than Prior and Wood (one was 22 and the other 21, not 19 and 20), NOBODY comes into the league, especially such a merciless place as LA and dominates right off the bat.  Look how much trouble Rich Harden ran into when called up without having polished breaking stuff, and he absolutely BLEW everybody away in the minor leagues (none of that 3.80 ERA in AA nonsense Jackson put out or nearly as many hits as innings pitched that Miller had in SINGLE A in 2003)........I am looking at it from the Sox short-term perspective as well, and perspective of waiting till 2006 doesn't thrill me.

 

Does history not teach you anything? Look at Shilling, Pedro, Brown, Hudson, Maddux, Mulder, Unit, Beckett, Clemens, Zito, Mussina, Prior-- they were ALL anywhere from 22 to 26 when they realized their "front-line starter" potential. Not 19.  Not 20..........And those 12 pitchers I mentioned, mind you, are absolute CREAM of the crop of the last 2 decades, and it's HIGHTLY unlikely either Jackson OR Miller will touch them EVER....94 mph fastball or not.    Simplistic arguement you say?  Perhaps, but truth is often very simple.

 

Besides, I agreed with you that it's way out there to think we can get both of them.

 

31yo Guillermo Mota is a "great pitcher" now?  You don't mince words do you?   

I love how you look at only the one semi-bad stat and point to that. Besides, a 1.27 WHIP is more then respectable(quite a bit better then Buehrle's WHIP for comparison). Anyone can make an arguement based on selective use of stats. Why didn't you mention his 2-1 record, or his 2.45 ERA, or only giving up 17 hits in 22 innings, or his 19 SO in 22 innings, or only giving up 2 HR's in 22 IP, or his 19:11 SO:BB ratio. Granted it was a very small sample size, but it certainly showed that he would probably have little trouble putting up decent numbers in the majors as early as next year. His number at AA as a 19 year old kid were the following:

 

7-7 3.70 ERA 148.1 IP 121 H 9 HR 54 BB 157 SO

 

What is not spectacular about those numbers, especially by a 19 year old kid at AA? Most prospects that are 19 are in rookie ball. His ERA is a little higher then expected, but if you look at the overall stats, than you will notice that it will most likely come down. He only gave up 121 hits in 148.1 IP, he only gave up 9 HR in 148.1 IP, he had a pretty solid 1:3 BB:IP ratio, he had a solid 3:1 SO:BB ratio, and he had more SO(157) then innings pitched(148.1). If those aren't spectacular numbers, than I don't know what it. Furthermore, he is almost guaranteed to start the year in the rotation, and is the best pitching prospect out of LA since Perdo. Could the kid use a little more time to work on his command and breaking pitches, probably, but that doesn't mean that he still can't come into the majors and pitch well, if not dominate. One of the best things about him is his smooth, effortless deliver(ala Prior), which should help keep a constant release point(very important for youngsters) and keep from putting too much stress on his arm.

 

There is a learning curve for most young players, but you are blind if you don't realize that there are a few guys that come into the league and dominate, and even more that come into the league and perform well(but not quite dominate) from day 1. You need to check your stats on Perdo again. In his 1st full year in the majors at the age of 22 he put up the following stats, mostly from the pen:

 

10-5 2.61 ERA 107 IP 76 H 5 HR 57 BB 119 SO

 

I don't know about you, but those are some pretty dominating stats, and he continued the following year and so on. I don't think it is out of the question that Jackson, possible even Miller, could put up those kind of stats as a rookie. The point that I am trying to make about them being effect and helping the Sox in 2004 isn't that I think they are going to put up numbers that would yield them the CY Young, but that they can come in and put up respectable numbers from the 5th starters spot. For example, I think the following stats would be more then realistic for either next year:

 

10-8 4.20 ERA 150 IP 140 H 15 HR 65 BB 130 SO

 

The point that I am trying to make is that the Sox got the following numbers from the 5th starters spot last year:

 

3-11 6.75 ERA 122.1 IP 139 H 21 HR 75 BB 74 SO

 

I am agruing that at the very least they can put up better numbers than that, and could even put together a great year. Getting a solid year out of them from the 5th starters spot would more then help this team in 2004 and be a drastic improvement over 2003. They could also help out in the pen as well, similar to Pedro when he was 22 in his 1st full year. So saying that neither of these guys would help in 2004 is simple untrue. They may not dominate from day 1, although they could, but they could probably put up solid numbers and help this team if 2004.

 

In regards to the age factor, you must not be reading my post that carefully. I am not suggesting that they will come in and be dominating #1 starters from day 1. The arguement I am making is that they have to stuff NOW to pitch in the majors, and could put up solid numbers in either the 5th spot in the rotations or the bullpen. Most of the guys you listed put up solid numbers in the first full year, and I am merely suggesting that either Jackson or Miller could also do the same, and eventual develop into front of the rotation starters with time.

 

Brando, you are looking at this issue from a very one-sided point of view. Yes it is possible that neither could live up to their hype, or struggle their 1st couple of years, or not be read at this point, but there is also some evidence supporting the other side of the arguement that I have shown you yet you fail to accept. You say that the truth is often very simple, but the fact remains that in life there is no certain truth.

[greasywheels121]

I hope we can make some kind of deal w/ LA this offseason....I'm so glad that this Arod trade is out of the picture for now.

[Rex Hudler]

the former had very human numbers in A-ball

 

I am a bit skeptical of Miller only because he he has really only been pitching for one full year. He had been promoted to Jacksonville when they came to Barons, but unfortunately he wasn't scheduled to pitch. He pitched VERY WELL in High A before dominating in four AA starts at the age of 18. He will play the entire 2004 season at 19 years old, not turning 20 until November.

 

Brando, I understand your desire to win now and respect that. I agree that there is no way we get both Jackson and Miller from the Dodgers as well. But if you want to call the numbers below "human", then you are way off. Those are eye-popping numbers for a kid who should have still been in High School.

 

CAREER PITCHING RECORD

YR CLUB        LG    Class W-L    .PCT   ERA  G GS CG SHO GF SV    IP   H  AB TBF   R  ER HR SH SF HB  BB IB  SO WP BK  AVG AGAINST   

02 Great Falls PIO     R   3-2   .600  2.37 11  7  0   0  0  0  38.0  27 136 152  14  10  1  0  1  2  13  0  37  2  0     .199     

03 Vero Beach  FSL     A  11-4   .733  2.49 21 21  1   0  0  0 115.2 103 430 478  40  32  5  6  1  0  41  0 111  3  0     .240     

   Jacksnville SOU    AA   1-1   .500  1.01  4  4  0   0  0  0  26.2  15  96 103   5   3  1  0  0  0   7  0  40  2  0     .156     

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   MINOR LEAGUE TOTALS    15     .682  2.25    32      0     0       145     733      45     6     2      0      7

                             7              36     1      0    180.1     662      59      7     2     61    188     0

[BrandoFan]

Brando, you are looking at this issue from a very one-sided point of view

 

Correction: an admittedly one-side point of view. OF COURSE Dodgers get hosed on it, but their semi-desperation may play into our hands (and vice versa), especially if we toss a prospect or two of our own their way. I am worried about 2004 mostly, and about 2005 a little too. If Sox won't win the division and attract big crowds in the that timespan....god help us.

 

For example, I think the following stats would be more then realistic for either next year: 10-8 4.20 ERA 150 IP 140 H 15 HR 65 BB 130 SO

 

.....and adjusting for our park and DH-ridden league, that's, what, 4.50 ERA, would you say? Pretty average numbers if you ask me. Also, there is NO way in HELL Greg Miller pitches in the majors in 2004, which means you probably have to project similar numbers for him for 2005....which in turn means we must postpone his superstardom until at least 2006 when he will be all of....TWENTY TWO??? What a lucky kid.

 

Pedro (an exception to all exceptions, you do realize?) did post excellent numbers as a 22yo reliever, you're right......and then proceeded to regress over the next 3 years as a starter......until he finally became what he is now in 1997 as a 26yo. But, again, this is Pedro.

 

You say that the truth is often very simple, but the fact remains that in life there is no certain truth.

 

Fair enough.

 

In any case, we agree more than you think we do, especially with respect to our ghastly #5 starters......but I will hold my reservations about Miller and Jackson for another year or two until I see more of them.

[Rex Hudler]

The Barons handled Jackson pretty well in 2003. His first start against them was at home and he tossed 7 shutout innnings. After that, he was pretty "human". His stats against the Barons were:

 

            W- L- S   ERA GP    IP   H   AB   AVG  TBF   R  ER HR  BB  SO WP BK

TOTALS      2- 1- 0  4.55  5  29.2  26  111  .234  122  16  15  3   8  27  1  0

 

You could see potential with him, but obviously those numbers weren't as good as the rest of the season, so I didn't see much in terms of results.

[BrandoFan]

Vero Beach  FSL     A  11-4   .733  2.49 21 21  1   0  0  0 115.2 103 430 478  40  32  5  6  1  0  41  0 111  3  0     .240    

 

For someone who is one of the best prospects to ever come down the pipe and was supposedly "almost" scheduled to pitch in the MAJORS when Dodgers fell out of contention this year, the above numbers are nowhere NEAR mind-blowing.

 

Ryan Wing, who you will agree is not a phenom by a long shot, put up BETTER numbers (ok, not better but close) in A-ball. I am not sure about Cotts, but Honel and Malone too excelled on that level too, didn't they? And neither of those two is/was "comparable to Prior". Ever.

 

There are a ton of pitchers who can post 3.70 ERA in AA and almost as many who can post 2.50 ERA in AA......all the while having similar "stuff": low-90s fastball, nasty curve, developing change, etc. Of course, Miller and Jackson are a year ahead of their peers, they wouldn't be "special" if they weren't.

 

It's just that what they can do FOR White Sox in the next couple of years is all I care about.

[whitesox61382]

Correction:  an admittedly one-side point of view.  OF COURSE Dodgers get hosed on it, but their semi-desperation may play into our hands (and vice versa), especially if we toss a prospect or two of our own their way.    I am worried about 2004 mostly, and about 2005 a little too. If Sox won't win the division and attract big crowd in that span....god help us.

 

 

 

.....and adjusting for our park and DH-ridden league, that's, what, 4.50 ERA, would you say?  Pretty average numbers if you ask me. Also, there is NO way in HELL Greg Miller pitches in the majors in 2004, which means you probably have to project similar numbers for him for 2005....which in turn means we must postpone his superstardom until at least 2006 when he will be all of....TWENTY TWO??? What a lucky kid.

 

Pedro (an exception to all exceptions, you do realize?) did post excellent numbers as a 22yo reliever, you're right......and then proceeded to regress over the next 3 years as a starter......until he finally became what he is now in 1997 as a 26yo. But, again, this is Pedro. 

 

 

 

Fair enough.

 

In any case, we agree more than you think we do,  especially with respect to our ghastly #5 starters......but I will hold my reservations about Miller and Jackson for another year or two until I see more of them.

My whole point is that I believe Jackson could put up good numbers as a 5th starter next year or possible a key right handed reliever. In either case he would probably drasticly help this team win. I do agree that the lose of Maggs(and possible Nomar if they got him and then traded him) would hurt from a PR standpoint, but if the Sox make the right moves and spend the money that they save wisely, than all of that could go out the window with a winning team that is contending for the division.

 

Those sample numbers were adjusted to the AL and a better hitters park, but even if Jackson posted a 4.50 ERA in the 5th starters spot, is that not a drastic improvement from the 6.75 ERA that the Sox got from the 5th starters last year? Wouldn't that make the Sox a better team in comparison to last years team? Furthermore, if you did some reseach, I did some a while back, you will find that the average 5th starter in the AL posts an ERA in the mid-5's, so Jackson's 4.50 would be quite a bit better then the league average as well. To take it a step further, I think the Sox will be hard pressed to find better numbers/option in the 5th spot from within the organization or through the signing of a veteran bottom of the rotation starter. So I would argue that he would improve the team from that standpoint as well.

 

The Sox need to make moves for the present AND near future. Adding Jackson and Miller would address those needs. The Sox don't have pitching prospects that compare to Jackson or Miller(not Cotts, not Honel, not Rauch). Furthermore, these guys are advanced past their age. Both of these guys are 20 or younger, and both could be pitching in the majors next year(Jackson already did so last year). The one area this organization is weak in is talent in the upper minors, and getting these two would drasticly improve that. These two guys are possible 2 of the top 5 pitching prospects in baseball. They are almost the sole reason why the Dodgers system is ranked in the top 5. I am normally reserved when it comes to prospects, because I usually use a prove it to me approach, and until they prove themselves at the major league level they have little use to the Sox(besides possible trades). However, with these two I might change my approach. Thats how good they are, and I haven't even seen Miller pitch in person. As far as your guarantee that Miller won't be in the majors next year, you could turn out to be very wrong. You do realize that the Dodger almost called Miller to the majors last year, and decided to go with Jackson because he was a little more advanced? While Miller might benefit more from a full season in the minors, the fact is that he is advanced past his age, and that he has the stuff to pitch in the majors right now. Furthermore, if he dominates for half a year in AA, than I think the odds are in his favor that he will get a taste of the majors at some point in 2004. The Dodgers might even keep in out of ST if they feel he is ready, although that isn't likely.

 

If you look at Pedro's numbers as a starter, than you will see that they were still pretty impressive. Once again I will state that my point isn't that Miller and Jackson will come into the majors from day 1 and dominate, however, I am arguing that it is certainly possible based on their numbers/stuff/development that they could come in and put up very solid numbers that would improve this team. I do think it will take some time before they develop into true aces, if they ever do.