Score a big win for MLB & a big loss for the union

[JUGGERNAUT]

The MLBPA union is out of control.

 

Good luck in 2007 when every baseball fan will look upon the Winter of 2003 as the year the MLBPA told A-Rod, "No you can not accept less pay to go to a BETTER team." If they had any fan support in the last CBA, they will have none now.

 

http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/ds.../pro/191sd1.htm

 

Rodriguez offered to reduce salaries in his contract by $12 million in exchange for increased marketing and logo use rights, agent Scott Boras said. Plus, Rodriguez would have the right to become a free agent after the 2005 season.

 

The proposal from the Red Sox that the players' association rejected a day earlier would have cost Rodriguez $28 million, according to the team's evaluation, and $30 million, according to the union's analysis, Boras said.

 

"The players' association's intransigence and the arbitrary nature of its action are responsible for the deal's demise today," Lucchino said.

After Rodriguez and Boston reached an agreement Wednesday, the union refused to approve it, saying it reduced the value of the contract, the highest in professional sports history.

 

If the blockbuster deal had gone through, Boston probably would have traded longtime shortstop Nomar Garciaparra, possibly to the White Sox.

<<<

 

What I don't understand is why didn't Boston just package that 12MIL into an 8th yr?

A-ROD is young enough to where he can be expected to play beyond 7 more yrs.

All BOSTON has to do is pkg the 12MIL into a buyout for an optional 8th yr. It's like BOSTON guaranteeing A-ROD a min of 12MIL in 2011 no matter where he plays but still allows BOSTON to match/beat any other offer.

 

Maybe Boras is only smart when it comes to greed, but dumber than a box of rocks when it comes to improving a client's work situation.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Rodriguez offered to reduce salaries in his contract by $12 million in exchange for increased marketing and logo use rights, agent Scott Boras said. Plus, Rodriguez would have the right to become a free agent after the 2005 season.

Here's what I don't understand.

 

It makes sense to me that If ARod give up a little money ($12MIL), yet he gains martketing and licsensing right, plus an earlier out year, how is that not a benefit to the player???

[Chisoxfn]

Well Schilling was very upset as well and he's a big Union guy so it will be very interesting to see what happens because of this.

[Dick Allen]

Here's what I don't understand.

 

It makes sense to me that If ARod give up a little money ($12MIL), yet he gains martketing and licsensing right, plus an earlier out year, how is that not a benefit to the player???

Normally, I would agree with you, but the market is depressed. The Yankees and the Red Sox, and maybe the Mets are really the only 3 teams who could conceivably bid on him, and those last few years of his contract, his salary is something like $32 million a year. No way he would get that. Hicks outbid everybody by $100 million for ARod. If he doesn't want to , or can't afford to pay him what he agreed, then he shouldn't look for Boston to take the contract, and pay a portion of Ramirez' contract. I don't blame the union, I blame Tom Hicks.

[Soxfest]

Players want it both ways , not the way it works to change ONLY when it is to players advantage

[JUGGERNAUT]

The owner of the Manny trade was dumber than the owner of the A-Rod trade:

 

All we ever hear about is A-ROD & 252. Clearly Hick's was a dumb arse in offering to pay approx 7mil/yr than the next best offer that year, but when you compare A-ROD's value as the best player of the game vs big salary players it doesn't look so

bad.

 

Looking back, I found an article to where A-ROD discusses the other teams in contention. Boston & Seattle were mentioned & A-ROD denied rumors of a 4th team

that Boras circulated. The next best offer appears to have come from the Braves : 128/7. A little over 18mil/yr.

 

A-ROD will likely never see the 252MIL as he will probably take the mutual out clause after 7 yrs & sign elsewhere. So Hicks will have paid 171/7 or 24.5mil/yr. Now let's assume that Hicks had to beat ATL to get A-ROD. To be honest, for one of the worst teams in the league at the time to acquire the games best player probably would have required an offer paying more than 20mil. So in reality, Hicks probably over paid A-ROD no more than 3mil/yr more than he should have. Would 3mil/yr have made much difference? Yes. Being a door mat affords the Rangers higher picks. Having a few million more to make offers to those picks makes all the difference in the world.

 

So what should Boston have offered & what should the union have accepted?

Simple. A contract guaranteeing A-ROD to be the highest paid player for the next 7 yrs. There is 7mil left on the signing bonus. Ramirez is owed 97.5mil over the next 5 yrs. Making him the 2nd highest paid player. Now A-ROD was willing to shave 12MIL off the value of the contract which Boras estimates reduces the value by 28MIL. The Union of course padded this to 30 & said no way.

 

Here's where Boston needs to be creative & realize what they are getting.

They owe Manny 97.5mil. We are essentially talking a 1-dim player who is likely to play DH in the last 2 yrs of the remaining 5. Now what's it worth to Boston to exchange that money for A-ROD play & $$$ in those 5 yrs? Because that's really what we are talking about.

 

Let's put it this way:

Manny actually finished ahead of A-ROD in the RPG rankings. Manny was 2nd only to

Delgado & A-ROD was 3rd. But here's where A-ROD's value becomes apparent.

Jeter & Tejada finished 19th & 39th in the rankings. Yet Jeter is an 18mil/yr SS, & now Tejada is a 12mil/yr SS. In otherwords the league pays a premium on solid hitting middle IFers.

 

Putting this another way, A-ROD's RPG was 8.17, Jeter's was 6.55, & Tejada's was 5.58. That means that A-ROD was 25% more productive than Jeter. If A-ROD was deserving of 25% more pay than Jeter that would put him at 20mil. He made 22mil.

That's the way Boston should have approached the contract renegotiations. Not seeking to reduce the total payout but rather defer the total payout. I would rather have A-ROD at an avg of 25% more than Jeter over the next 7 yrs that Manny at an avg of 25% over Bonds for the next 5.

 

NYY owes Jeter a total of 145mil/7 yr. A-Rod is due 179/7 or roughly 23% more.

A-Rod's had 4% more AB's than Jeter in the last 4 yrs. A-Rod's had a WHOPPING 22.5% more AB's than Manny in that time. A-Rod played all of those ab's at SS, whereas Manny played a WHOPPING 800 ab's at DH in that time. That's over 40% of his ab's in that time. No one should be surprised why Texas is asking for more.

 

What Boston should offer A-Rod is 145/7 structured like Jeter & defer the remainder of the 34mil in 2011-2021 plus interest so that it does not diminish the total value of the contract. The union should accept that.

 

So let's think of what A-ROD really means to Boston:

Over 20% more production than Jeter, & over 20% more ab's than Manny each yr.

I would say that's worth more than 20% of Manny's current contract.

That would be equal to 117/5 or 23.4mil. Extending that out to 7 yrs, & the total comes to 163.8mil. The 252mil doesn't look so bad now.

 

Now for trading the game's best player for the games best DH what should Texas get in return? If I'm Texas I ask for Nomar & Manny & Boston to pick up Nomar's 2004 salary. To suggest that Texas has a SS in waiting is crazy. They certainly don't have one with ML experience. For Texas to be competitive in 2004 they will need a real ML SS. Now if they want to save more $, they can still ship Nomar to the White Sox or LA or whomever. But for 2004 they get both Nomar & Manny for a price less than A-ROD. That's a pretty good upgrade with a rent a player & we're done with it.

Texas of course should ship Boston an OF with ML experience. They have several good ones to choose from.

 

Have we all forgotten that Boston placed Manny on waivers earlier this year? Does that not tell you how horrible that deal has become? Texas is in the drivers seat & Boston needs to realize that there maybe no better opportunity to erase that deal than this. Every yr that Manny gets older the worse that deal will become. If he's at 40% of ab's at DH now, is 60% over the next 4 yrs unrealistic?

 

When you consider all the factors in this trade it's hard to believe it won't get done.

 

 

>>>

http://cp.yahoo.net/search/cache?va=%2bTex...rangers/tue.htm

Rodriguez said his final choice came down to a $128 million, seven-year offer from the Braves, who wouldn't give him a no-trade clause, and a deal from the Mariners that guaranteed him $48 million for three years.

 

 

 

If Texas doesn't file for Chapter 11 first, Rodriguez will bring home a mere $21 mil per year through 2004, a respectable $25 mil in '05 and '06, and then an it's-about-time $27 mil in the final four years of the contract (there is a mutual out clause after 7 yrs, & clause in the final 2 guaranteeing that A-ROD is the highest paid player in the game). It’s never mentioned but there is a 10mil/10yr signing bonus as well.

 

Incidentally prior to the contract signing, A-Rod visited with the Rangers previously but was reportedly disinterested. In fact, he claimed he hadn't given much thought to playing for Texas at all.

<<<

[BrandoFan]

Hicks outbid everybody by $100 million for ARod

 

Yep.

 

But hey, the publicty he got out of it was worth it

[BrandoFan]

The owner of the Manny trade was dumber than the owner of the A-Rod trade:

 

All we ever hear about is A-ROD & 252.  Clearly Hick's was a dumb arse in offering to pay approx 7mil/yr than the next best offer that year, but when you compare A-ROD's value as the best player of the game vs big salary players it doesn't look so

bad.

 

Looking back, I found an article to where A-ROD discusses the other teams in contention.  Boston & Seattle were mentioned & A-ROD denied rumors of a 4th team

that Boras circulated. The next best offer appears to have come from the Braves : 128/7.  A little over 18mil/yr. 

 

A-ROD will likely never see the 252MIL as he will probably take the mutual out clause after 7 yrs & sign elsewhere.  So Hicks will have paid 171/7 or 24.5mil/yr.  Now let's assume that Hicks had to beat ATL to get A-ROD.  To be honest, for one of the worst teams in the league at the time to acquire the games best player probably would have required an offer paying more than 20mil.  So in reality, Hicks probably over paid A-ROD no more than 3mil/yr more than he should have. Would 3mil/yr have made much difference?  Yes.  Being a door mat affords the Rangers higher picks.  Having a few million more to make offers to those picks makes all the difference in the world.

 

So what should Boston have offered & what should the union have accepted?

Simple.  A contract guaranteeing A-ROD to be the highest paid player for the next 7 yrs.  There is 7mil left on the signing bonus. Ramirez is owed 97.5mil over the next 5 yrs.  Making him the 2nd highest paid player. Now A-ROD was willing to shave 12MIL off the value of the contract which Boras estimates reduces the value by 28MIL.  The Union of course padded this to 30 & said no way.

 

Here's where Boston needs to be creative & realize what they are getting.

They owe Manny 97.5mil.  We are essentially talking a 1-dim player who is likely to play DH in the last 2 yrs of the remaining 5. Now what's it worth to Boston to exchange that money for A-ROD play & $$$ in those 5 yrs?  Because that's really what we are talking about. 

 

Let's put it this way:

Manny actually finished ahead of A-ROD in the RPG rankings.  Manny was 2nd only to

Delgado & A-ROD was 3rd.  But here's where A-ROD's value becomes apparent.

Jeter & Tejada finished 19th & 39th in the rankings.  Yet Jeter is an 18mil/yr SS, & now Tejada is a 12mil/yr SS.  In otherwords the league pays a premium on solid hitting middle IFers. 

 

Putting this another way, A-ROD's RPG was 8.17, Jeter's was 6.55, & Tejada's was 5.58.  That means that A-ROD was 25% more productive than Jeter.  If A-ROD was deserving of 25% more pay than Jeter that would put him at 20mil. He made 22mil.

That's the way Boston should have approached the contract renegotiations.  Not seeking to reduce the total payout but rather defer the total payout.  I would rather have A-ROD at an avg of 25% more than Jeter over the next 7 yrs that Manny at an avg of 25% over Bonds for the next 5.

 

NYY owes Jeter a total of 145mil/7 yr.  A-Rod is due 179/7 or roughly 23% more.

A-Rod's had 4% more AB's than Jeter in the last 4 yrs.  A-Rod's had a WHOPPING 22.5% more AB's than Manny in that time. A-Rod played all of those ab's at SS, whereas Manny played a WHOPPING 800 ab's at DH in that time.  That's over 40% of his ab's in that time. No one should be surprised why Texas is asking for more.

 

What Boston should offer A-Rod is 145/7 structured like Jeter & defer the remainder of the 34mil in 2011-2021 plus interest so that it does not diminish the total value of the contract.  The union should accept that. 

 

So let's think of what A-ROD really means to Boston:

Over 20% more production than Jeter, & over 20% more ab's than Manny each yr.

I would say that's worth more than 20% of Manny's current contract.

That would be equal to 117/5 or 23.4mil.  Extending that out to 7 yrs, & the total comes to 163.8mil.  The 252mil doesn't look so bad now. 

 

Now for trading the game's best player for the games best DH what should Texas get in return?  If I'm Texas I ask for Nomar & Manny & Boston to pick up Nomar's 2004 salary.  To suggest that Texas has a SS in waiting is crazy. They certainly don't have one with ML experience.  For Texas to be competitive in 2004 they will need a real ML SS. Now if they want to save more $, they can still ship Nomar to the White Sox or LA or whomever.  But for 2004 they get both Nomar & Manny for a price less than A-ROD.  That's a pretty good upgrade with a rent a player & we're done with it.

Texas of course should ship Boston an OF with ML experience.  They have several good ones to choose from.   

 

Have we all forgotten that Boston placed Manny on waivers earlier this year?  Does that not tell you how horrible that deal has become?  Texas is in the drivers seat & Boston needs to realize that there maybe no better opportunity to erase that deal than this. Every yr that Manny gets older the worse that deal will become.  If he's at 40% of ab's at DH now, is 60% over the next 4 yrs unrealistic?

 

When you consider all the factors in this trade it's hard to believe it won't get done.

 

 

>>>

http://cp.yahoo.net/search/cache?va=%2bTex...rangers/tue.htm

Rodriguez said his final choice came down to a $128 million, seven-year offer from the Braves, who wouldn't give him a no-trade clause, and a deal from the Mariners that guaranteed him $48 million for three years.

 

 

 

If Texas doesn't file for Chapter 11 first, Rodriguez will bring home a mere $21 mil per year through 2004, a respectable $25 mil in '05 and '06, and then an it's-about-time $27 mil in the final four years of the contract (there is a mutual out clause after 7 yrs, & clause in the final 2 guaranteeing that A-ROD is the highest paid player in the game).  It’s never mentioned but there is a 10mil/10yr signing bonus as well.

 

Incidentally prior to the contract signing, A-Rod visited with the Rangers previously but was reportedly disinterested. In fact, he claimed he hadn't given much thought to playing for Texas at all.

<<<

Damn JAUGS. Damn.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Neyer is an idiot. Has any one read his column on how he thinks Nomar+Manny is pretty much the same as A-Rod+Ordonez? It's blatantly obvious he's not considering ab's in that equation & he's not looking at the $$$ stats.

 

Here are the numbers for the past 3 yrs:

Maggs: 1789 abs, 308r, 347rbi, 562h, 199w

Manny: 1534 abs, 294r, 336rbi, 499h, 275w

diff : 255 abs, 14r, 11rbi, 63h, -76w

 

A-Rod: 1863 abs, 382r, 395rbi, 569h, 290w

Nomar: 1376 abs, 234r, 233rbi, 419h, 105w

diff : 487 abs, 148r, 162rbi, 150h, 185w

 

Now maybe I'm not a student of Neyer baseball math but it would seem to me that

a net gain of over 700abs, 162r, 173rbi, 213h, 109w is pretty significant.

It's like getting the production of 3 guys out of 2. Since Manny at 611 abs at DH it's even a bigger gain on the field.

 

So this is the deal:

Nomar+Manny+cash to pay Nomar's salary to Texas for A-Rod, & OF with ML experience.

 

Now the trade potential with the SOX blossoms:

A free Nomar to SOX for a Val + cash to pay his salary & a potential starter.

The SOX offer the 30yr old Nomar a 60/5 contract.

If he accepts great, if not then we ship him to either ANA or LAD for pitching.

 

For those who think Nomar isn't worth it, think again.

Sag's Runs Per Game avg 00-03:

Nomar: 9.08, 5.77(DL), 6.40, 6.33(IR),

Jeter: 7.67, 6.73, 5.97, 6.55,

Maggs: 7.10, 7.20, 7.88, 7.34,

Tejada: 5.92, 5.34, 6.31, 5.58

 

The only one who broke through & experienced an MVP yr was Nomar.

Maggs has the highest RPG av over the past 3 yrs.

But clearly, Nomar appears to be the best hitter of the 3 SS's.

His biggest knock his is health & it's an important one.

 

Despite his recent health history Nomar is still a fan favorite & a marquee player

that can increase attendance. I think that alone is worth the risk of trying to sign him long-term.

 

If the Rangers are smart, they wouldn't trade Nomar but instead over him 60/5.

Now you're looking at Nomar+Manny production over the next 5 yrs at a total cost of 157.5mil. Still less than you were paying A-Rod. With the extra 20mil you might be able to entice a pitching rich team to take Manny+10mil off your hands. That still gives you Nomar's production + major pttching upgrades for about 70mil/5. Not a bad way to build a contender in the ALW at a time when Oak is likely to loose star talent to FA, & ANA is likely to spend themselves into a firesale. The M's will be competitve for some time to come.

 

So if we assume Nomar's out of the picture what else is there left in Boston for the SOX to trade for?

 

How about this?

Millar, Williamson, Damon for Maggs,Koch,Konerko.

Salary wise that's 13mil for 28mil, but Maggs alone is worth the difference.

The SOX fill their CF need, get a young but reliable 1B, & a decent relief pitcher

plus a savings of probably 10mil after arbit prices for Millar & Williamson.

 

Boston replaces Manny's prod with Maggs, & just needs to find a suitable replacement for Damon. Much easier shoes to fill. In addition they've got the possibility that Koch can nail the closer job with Foulke has the setup guy. That could become the best 1-2 finish in the league.

 

With the 10mil, we can go & sign a reliable starter like Rogers, Ponson, & a few relievers.

 

With 30SB, & an OBP of .345 Damon becomes our Lead off hitter:

 

CF-Damon

SS-Crede/Valentin

LF- Carlos Lee

DH-Frank Thomas

1B- Kevin Millar

3B- Joe Crede

RF- Joe Borchard

C- Alomar/Olivo

2B- Willie Harris/Uribe

 

I like this because you have lots of speed at the bottom as well as good speed at leadoff. So if any body gets on for Damon, it's going to put major pressure on opposing pitchers.

 

Assuming KW goes the cheap route & uses the 10MIL saved on rent a players:

Starters:

1) Buehrle

2) E-Lo

3) Rogers

4) Garland

5) Schow/Estes/FA/Wright/Cotts/Rauch

 

Relief:

Williamson

Wunsch

Wright

FA (Schow)

FA

 

Closer:

Marte

 

I think we can win the division with that team, & if KW can pick another E-LO out of the mix maybe more.

[BrandoFan]

Neyer is an idiot. Has any one read his column on how he thinks Nomar+Manny is pretty much the same as A-Rod+Ordonez?

 

 

Rob is gettin' down like it's 1999.

 

 

No seriously, in 1999 Nomar was easily as good as A-Rod and Manny was much better than Maggs....Since then, the former two regressed while the latter-- improved.

[YASNY]

I think Juggernaut has too much time on his hands.

[BrandoFan]

Millar, Williamson, Damon for Maggs,Koch,Konerko

 

You think Red Sox want ANY part of 14.3 Mill worth of Konerko and Koch?

[Rex Hudler]

I don't blame the union, I blame Tom Hicks.

 

I blame both. The union for seeing things with blinders on and not doing what is good for both their player and the game in a unique situation. And Hicks for making such a ridiculous demand that says saving $80 million in the deal is not enough and demanding cash back in the trade.

 

I have said this before and will reiterate here.....

 

I think the best thing that can happen for the game of baseball in terms of player contracts is to let ARod rot in last place in Texas for the next 7 years. I like ARod as a player, but unfortunately he gets to be a poster child about all that is wrong in regards to stupid owners and greedy agents. Let Hicks own a last place team for 10 years. Make the player who signed the contract wallow in last place (albeit in mucho cash) for 10 years. Maybe next time an agent/owner get into a high stakes game of poker, both sides will think a little heavier about the long term implications, since they have an example in front of them.

[supernuke]

I blame both.  The union for seeing things with blinders on and not doing what is good for both their player and the game in a unique situation.  And Hicks for making such a ridiculous demand that says saving $80 million in the deal is not enough and demanding cash back in the trade.

 

I have said this before and will reiterate here.....

 

I think the best thing that can happen for the game of baseball in terms of player contracts is to let ARod rot in last place in Texas for the next 7 years.  I like ARod as a player, but unfortunately he gets to be a poster child about all that is wrong in regards to stupid owners and greedy agents.  Let Hicks own a last place team for 10 years.  Make the player who signed the contract wallow in last place (albeit in mucho cash) for 10 years.  Maybe next time an agent/owner get into a high stakes game of poker, both sides will think a little heavier about the long term implications, since they have an example in front of them.

Players and owners thinking, a novel concept but I think you might be asking to much of them.

[TLAK]

The union can't afford to give an inch on this. If any crack were to appear where owners could renegotiate a contract downward it would be open season on players coming off a bad year or injury. They would find a way to squeeze Billy Koch, Moe Vaughn and the like, costing them the millions they earned with prior performance.

 

There are smart signings and dumb signings. I bet Loiza wishes he didn't give the Sox a $4Mil option for '04, I think he could easily double it as a free agent. But Esteban has to live up to his contract and so do the owners.

[JUGGERNAUT]

Well more facts have surfaced & now I really question Red Sox management.

I think it was a matter of the team thinking they could sell A-Rod to a major reduction.

 

As I understand, A-Rod was willing to lop off 25-35 million off his contract to be a Red Sox. This of course made Boras unhappy but he just wanted to be done with this.

That would have enabled the Red Sox to meet Hicks demands of paying 20mil towards Manny's contract. The union came back & offered a 13 million reduction in exchange for Red Sox logo rights in merchandising for A-Rod. The Red Sox emphatically said no.

 

What surprises me about this is that this was not deferred money. The Red Sox were seeking to reduce the overall value of the contract. The 13mil was not deferred either, but the union felt the logo rights would make up the difference when A-Rod markets himself as a Red Sox. Of course the union did add the stipulation that A-Rod could become a FA after 2005.

 

It's that last part that has me really scratching my head with Red Sox ownership.

Did the Red Sox not put Manny Ramirez on waivers a few months back? We're they not willing to part with his talent & receive nothing in return for the sake of saving 97.5 mil? Yet here they have a chance to get A-Rod for as low a minimum of 2 yrs at a cost of 60mil (payment to Rangers incl) for that same player & they turn it down.

 

I don't think they realize what's at stake. They need to come up with a min of 50MIL to re-sign Nomar & Pedro if they can't dump Manny. The A-Rod trade makes sense because you get Manny's production at Nomar's position. A-Rod is in his prime & Manny is tailing. So here's the way the Red Sox should have looked at this from the start. To keep both Manny + Nomar will cost 35mil. To get A-Rod will cost 30mil.

I even heard that the Rangers were willing to accept only 10mil+Manny, which would drop the cost to 27mil. Getting someone to play LF better than Manny & match Nomar's RECENT production will cost a few mil a yr. So trading for A-Rod saves the Red Sox a little more $ in the future.

 

Not making the trade means putting Manny on waivers every yr for the next 5 in hopes that someone will pick up a 20MIL DH/LF. I really think this is Boston's last change to dump the worst contract in MLB & if they don't do it, you could see an Albert Belle think happening before the contract ends.

[Guest Hex Rudler]

The last thing I would ever want to do is to say something even remotely complimentary about Hicks. But his GM John Hart might be on the right track for improving that team. They have two of the best young hitters in the game in Blaylock and Texiera, plus A-Rod, second sacker Young and some great pitching prospects thanks to the Marlins and the White Sox. It would not surprise me at all to see them overtake the Sox in a year.