Diamond Mind on Valentin as a Fielder

[C.Rector]

From an article in Diamond Mind at http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/gg2003.htm by Tom Tippett entitled "2003 Gold Glove Review":

 

 

His chief rivals in 2003 were Anaheim's David Eckstein, who was very reliable and showed more range than Rodriguez but played only 116 games, and Chicago's Jose Valentin, who got to an awful lot of balls but made 20 errors. Eckstein didn't play enough to be a serious candidate, so I'll focus on Valentin.

 

Valentin is somewhat error-prone, there's no question about that. His fielding percentage has lagged the league average every year he's been in the majors, sometimes by quite a bit. Since 2001, however, he's gotten better, making only 2-3 more errors per season than the average shortstop.

 

But Valentin has also been consistently better than the league in range during his career. In 2003, he led all major-league shortstops in net plays made and adjusted range factor, and he was second (behind Eckstein) in the STATS zone rating. Depending on which of these measures you prefer to go with, Valentin made somewhere between 20 and 56 more plays than the average shortstop. Taking the strengths and weaknesses of each of these measures into account, I'd put his contribution somewhere in the range of 30-35 plays.

 

This would make it his best defensive year, but it's not too far above the level he's set in previous years. Problem is, his tendency to make errors has occasionally cost him a full-time job, so we don't have a lot of recent history to go on. But if you extrapolate his part-time 2001 and 2002 seasons into full years, and if you adjust for all the errors he made in 2000, Valentin has consistently shown the ability to reach about 20 more balls per season than the average shortstop.

 

So my vote goes to Valentin, though not by a big margin. Rodriguez is a very solid choice, and I'm not knocking his game in any way, but Valentin has improved his error rate enough to convert his superior range into real value.

[103 mph screwball]

Read farther down about C. Lee. I thought his defence had improved. Just a couple of years ago, I remember laughing at him and hoping he'd be traded. Now, I can't think of anyone on the team who hustles harder. I'm glad we signed him.

[FlaSoxxJim]

You you won't find a Jose-hating post in here from me, though I know I'm in the minority. I wish we were paying him a million or so less this year, but that certainly is not the biggest waste on money on the team right now.

[witesoxfan]

You you won't find a Jose-hating post in here from me, though I know I'm in the minority.  I wish we were paying him a million or so less this year, but that certainly is not the biggest waste on money on the team right now.

Agreed 100% on everything in the post.

 

Sums up my feelings exactly regarding Jose.

[Chisoxrd5]

I'm openly Jose Hater...

 

Nothing anyone can tell me can make me validate picking up his $5 million dollar club option...I'm VERY set in my Jose Valentin Ways...

 

As long as he insists on switch hitting, I insist on disliking him...

 

Who will break first???

[Pastime]

Look at the 1994 July Baseball Digest section called "Here They Come - The Big League Rookies of 1994."

 

If you look under shortstops, you wil find Jose Valentin. Basically, he was praised for his DEFENSE. According to that issue, "Jose hit. 240 in AAA, and will never be a high-average hitter in the majors," "Jose might hit for average power in the major leagues," "Jose makes errors on plays that other shortstops can only dream of making," and "Jose is a gifted defensive shortstop with a great range, glove, and arm. His hitting might pose a problem, though."

 

So I guess we shouldn't be so surprised that he's never hit much (except his .273 in 2000). However, for a player whose "main claim to fame" or "strength" was his glove, he's quickly fading. He should be playing at 1B, 3B, or DH for someone. However, he has to play SS for us, since we're overloaded at the other spots.

[YASNY]

Look at the 1994 July Baseball Digest section called "Here They Come - The Big League Rookies of 1994." 

 

If you look under shortstops, you wil find Jose Valentin.  Basically, he was praised for his DEFENSE.  According to that issue, "Jose hit. 240 in AAA, and will never be a high-average hitter in the majors," "Jose might hit for average power in the major leagues," "Jose makes errors on plays that other shortstops can only dream of making," and "Jose is a gifted defensive shortstop with a great range, glove, and arm.  His hitting might pose a problem, though." 

 

So I guess we shouldn't be so surprised that he's never hit much (except his .273 in 2000). However, for a player whose "main claim to fame" or "strength" was his glove, he's quickly fading.  He should be playing at 1B, 3B, or DH for someone.  However, he has to play SS for us, since we're overloaded at the other spots.

Hmmm. Let's see here. Diamond Mind said he should have won the Gold Glove in 2003, gets to between 30 - 35 more plays than the average shortstop and made 20 errors last year. If you take the "average" shortstop and, for the sake of arguement, assume Mr. Average made no errors, then Valentin still "made" 10 -15 more plays than his counterpart, Mr. Average. How does "quickly fading" enter into this equation?

[Pastime]

Yas,

 

By simple math, Jose is getting older. We all hate that, but he is doing what we all do. Getting older. His reflexes are going to slow down - it's life's equation and life's decision, not mine. Plus, imagine Jose next to Willie Harris. Any bad throw, or any "close throw" will now be handled by a novice at the 2B position. And we all know that the SS gets charged with at least 10 decisions that he shouldn't be blamed for.

 

Jose is getting older, and I just doubt that his range is what it used to be. Yes, he has good range, but can he still do it at his age? Well, we're stuck with him either way so let's hope for the best. But, believe me, he's not even a shadow of what he was in Milwaukee. I saw too many Brewers games in that time, but he had the range of no SS I've ever seen. That's fading, and slowing down. Let next year's stats prove that since you still think he's "all that."

[YASNY]

Sure Pastime, that happens to all of them. But as long he's still performing better than the average shortstop, which the most recent stats verify, then you have to give him the benefit of the doubt. At least until he shows he cannot be at least average, overall, defensively.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

From an article in Diamond Mind at http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/gg2003.htm  by Tom Tippett entitled "2003 Gold Glove Review":

 

 

His chief rivals in 2003 were Anaheim's David Eckstein, who was very reliable and showed more range than Rodriguez but played only 116 games, and Chicago's Jose Valentin, who got to an awful lot of balls but made 20 errors. Eckstein didn't play enough to be a serious candidate, so I'll focus on Valentin.

 

Valentin is somewhat error-prone, there's no question about that. His fielding percentage has lagged the league average every year he's been in the majors, sometimes by quite a bit. Since 2001, however, he's gotten better, making only 2-3 more errors per season than the average shortstop.

 

But Valentin has also been consistently better than the league in range during his career. In 2003, he led all major-league shortstops in net plays made and adjusted range factor, and he was second (behind Eckstein) in the STATS zone rating. Depending on which of these measures you prefer to go with, Valentin made somewhere between 20 and 56 more plays than the average shortstop. Taking the strengths and weaknesses of each of these measures into account, I'd put his contribution somewhere in the range of 30-35 plays.

 

This would make it his best defensive year, but it's not too far above the level he's set in previous years. Problem is, his tendency to make errors has occasionally cost him a full-time job, so we don't have a lot of recent history to go on. But if you extrapolate his part-time 2001 and 2002 seasons into full years, and if you adjust for all the errors he made in 2000, Valentin has consistently shown the ability to reach about 20 more balls per season than the average shortstop.

 

So my vote goes to Valentin, though not by a big margin. Rodriguez is a very solid choice, and I'm not knocking his game in any way, but Valentin has improved his error rate enough to convert his superior range into real value.

My favorite thing about this whole situation is how all these same haters actually loved Valentin when we had Royce "The Choice" Clayton playing shortstop.

 

Sure he's overpaid at 5 Mil he hustles his ass off, is a big time force in the locker room, and provides timely, if not consistent, hitting. I, for one, will miss him dearly and I think we'll all come to appreciate him as we go through this next season.

[elrockinMT]

I have always been a Valentin supporter. We need more of his hustle and enthusiasm for the game from our other star players. Maybe it will give them that extra step to first and avoid the GIDP plague. I also have to say that Jose has made some great defensive plays so his ranking by "the diamond" doesn't surprise me. I hope we keep him in a Sox uniform.

[BrandoFan]

However, for a player whose "main claim to fame" or "strength" was his glove, he's quickly fading. He should be playing at 1B, 3B, or DH for someone

 

Nobody argues that he no longer has his old range, arm and quickness. But as players age, they become BETTER fielder in terms of reliability (this has been proven by Bill James among others), so whatever Jose loses in terms of agility and ability to make a spectacular play, he will partly gain back by making fewer and fewer errors still. Just turned 34, still has a couple of good years left in him, which is all Sox ask.

 

As for the Gold Glove article, a few things:

 

1. It doesn't measure the outs in terms of bases, so when Jose starts a tough double play or gets off a quick throw to just get the force out at 2nd/3rd on a play an average SS either goes to 1st or maybe even sticks in his pocket.

 

2. It doesn't adjust for errors that lead to runs scored. Just like nobody would dispute that a single with runner at 2nd is more "important" than a single with noone on, one should accept that an error with runner(s) on base with no outs is "worse" than an error with 2 outs and bases empty.........At the end, both in 2000 and to some extent 2003, Jose's errors led to LESS runs than they should have given the 55 errors.........UNless you wanna argue that Sox pitchers somehow perform harder after Jose makes an error in order to make him look better, you cut Jose some slack on his errors. I am amazed how SITUATIONAL defense never gets a mention while hitting and pitching do. For instance when he leapt up to take away Doug Jones's liner into the gap off Colon that would scored 2 runs and brough Twins into the very important Sept. game, he basically "saved" 2 runs. And it was only one play in 162 games.

 

3. So does #1-2 not solidify Jose even further as a GG'er? No, not really. The article is somewhat off in how many "plays" better Jose is than an average SS. I don't have the statistical proof (if I am wrong, I am happy to be wrong as it would finally shut "Jose is a horrible fielder" crew for good), but my instincts tell me it's more like 15-20 than 30-35. So, it wouldn't put Jose in Vizquel or A-Rod's class just yet. I think Jose blongs together with Garciappara, Berroa, Uribe and Tejada as a second echelon fielder.

 

So Jose haters (cwsox, Molto, Chisoxfn, Dick Allen, you know who you are) may breathe a sigh of relief-- it's not really true; the only time Jose has ever fielded like a true Gold Glover was a 4-month period between May and Septemper of 2003, so forgive me if I consider the sample too small. I consider Val an average-fielding SS until proven otherwise.

 

Next year will be a true test for Jose and Coach Santana to see if the new technique they implemented since May truly sticks and Jose can keep error total under 20. Time will tell.

 

The writer of the arcicle (and many similar articles throughout baseball history) does get something right though: there is more to life than error totals. We must remember that even Ozzie Smith Himself had 5 or 6 seasons with 20+ errors.

[cwsox]

My favorite thing about this whole situation is how all these same haters actually  loved Valentin when we had Royce "The Choice" Clayton playing shortstop.

 

Sure he's overpaid at 5 Mil

Nuke, I am virgin pure here.

 

I was a fan of Royce, in fact, I was Royce's only fan. I also felt that he had to go since his presence was divisive and no longer productive.

 

I have tried to cheer for Jose a lot - he has given us some great moments - but I also spent too much time in 2000 wincing every time the ball was hit his way. I still wince when he has to make a routine play - the tough plays he can handle, it is the routine plays he will botch. If you sat with me a game, all you would audibly hear is cheering for Jose - I always cheer for our players - but I sure do wish we'd get rid of him too and find ourselves a real shortshtop.

 

There was no doubt after 2000 we needed a shortstop - everyone agreed. We got all excited about getting ARod but Texas obscenely outbid us so we got the guy who ARod replaced.

 

If we don't get Nomar, we have to have a shortstop somewhere.

 

Brandofan will now respond with the a pro StJosE6 post - that's ok, last May he was still promsing the Sox would win 60% of all the games that Jose played I still remember that, brando - brando's loyalty is commendable - I think we need a new shortstop. Near the end of the 2002 season is my hope we'd lose both Royce and StJosE6 and I still hope the rest of that comes true.

 

And he is way, way, way overpaid at $5 million

[BrandoFan]

Brandofan will now respond with the a pro StJosE6 post - that's ok, last May he was still promsing the Sox would win 60% of all the games that Jose played  I still remember that, brando - brando's loyalty is commendable -

 

 

Loyalty? It's called f***ing "BASEBALL REALITY", why don't you check into it instead of spouting all this simplistic "he has no glove" crap. What's next? Are you gonna come back with the laughable "Even clayton out-hit Jose in 2002"? I mean he did have a slighly higher BA, so it must be true.......Oh and read my f***ing "pro-Valentin" reply.

 

And he is way, way, way overpaid at $5 million

 

Gee, ya think? I've only said it a couple of dozen times myself.

 

And as far as "guaranteeing" .600 record, it was clearly tongue-in-cheek, but the fact still remains: Sox HAVE been a .600 team in the past when Jose started at SS AND they were about .540 team in 2003 when he did, not that it proves anything.

 

I do agree that Jose needs to knock off this RH-hitting s*** as it dilutes his production and hurts the team.

[cwsox]

clayton out-hit Jose in 2002

[BrandoFan]

       

You have angered and disappointed me.

 

But I also won't let it affect the way I feel about your overall merits as a top poster. I only have 12 posting days left, I don't wanna spend them fighting with you.

[cwsox]

why only 12 days left -

 

and everyone knows I am just silly about the shortstop situation so don;t be disappointed

 

you must mean you have 121,121 postings days left - I enjoy your posts, you can't go

[BrandoFan]

why only 12 days left -

 

It's on page 10 or 11 in Post your props thread in Sox awards forum.

[cwsox]

It's on page 10 or 11 in Post your props thread in Sox awards forum.

making me look????

 

ok I will

 

but I want Nomar starting at SS in April

[BrandoFan]

but I want Nomar starting at SS in April

 

And I want Mota, Miller and Jackson.

 

I also want for Nomar's wrist to never have been f***ed up in the first place and that he hits better away from Fenway/at USCF.

 

And that Willie Harris has a 360 OBP.

 

And that Garland develops a dangerous breaking pitch.

 

And Jerry Reindorf bestows upon us a freshly-minted 75 Mill payroll.

 

Etc.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

       

That's probably because Valentin was benched or shuffeled around by Uncle Jerry the entire season until Roycie finally proved even to Uncle Jerry what a s***bag he was.