Borchard on the BA Prospect List

[bigred3535]

7.Anderson(love his raw power and excellent speed...then again..hopefully he dosent turn out like borchard)

 

I think Anderson and Sweeney are much better prospects than Borchard was at this point simply because they both read the strike zone better than Joe ever has. Remember that Joe was a top prospect in the pre-"Moneyball" days...

 

Also, Nanita may sneak on the list even though he probably is not a great "prospect" simply because he had an such an outstanding season.

[Chisoxfn]

Joe always was supposed to have a good eye for the strikezone, he just had a very long swing with a big hole and that hole has never been fixed.

[winninguglyin83]

exactly right on Borchard.

 

He's never been able to shorten his swing to put the ball in play. The most disturbing thing about his career is that his command of the strike zone got worse, not better, during his second season at AAA. That suggests that pitchers figured out how to adjust to him, but Borchard could not adjust to pitchers.

 

That's not a good sign.

 

Anderson, from what I've read, will never have the power or athleticism of Borchard, but he has a chance to end up being a better baseball player.

 

And from what I've read about Reed, the prospect mavens never fawned over him because he does not have extraordinary tools.

 

But he can hit and it certainly seems like he knows how to play the game.

 

Take a guy like that ANY TIME.

 

Bring him on. Jeremy Reed's arrival could be the most exciting thing we have to look forward to this summer.

[MnSoxFan]

I am hoping Anderson is a better athlete than Borchard, I was not impressed with Borchard as an athlete, he is just big. Just cause he played QB does not mean he was an athlete, he is somewhat stiff and not all that fast or quick.

[DBAHO]

Joe always was supposed to have a good eye for the strikezone, he just had a very long swing with a big hole and that hole has never been fixed.

If he can work on that swing all season and make it shorter, I think he can still definitely make it with us.

[SoxAce]

Bring him on. Jeremy Reed's arrival could be the most exciting thing we have to look forward to this summer.

I love your thinking :bringonreed

[SuperSteve]

I love your thinking    :bringonreed 

Problem is it would probably be the most exciting thing because we are so far back and we are letting the kids play. I don't see Reed playing much unless we are out of it (barring injuries too).

[winninguglyin83]

If Reed starts the season hitting, he'll be in Chicago -- and quick.

 

You can count on that.

 

We need a left-handed hitter. And the sox love to sell the future.

 

As for Borchard, he's got $5 million of Jerry Reinsdorf's dollars.

 

He'll get every chance to sink or swim.

[SoxAce]

Problem is it would probably be the most exciting thing because we are so far back and we are letting the kids play. I don't see Reed playing much unless we are out of it (barring injuries too).

I don't think we'll be far out of it if he plays. It can also bare a trade if we make one. Who knows. We shall see if he beats out Rowand or starts another way by the start of the season. If he tears up AAA, and is drawing twice as many walks as k's I wouldn't want him stuck there the rest of the year. If Reed was in the vote as Cabrera and Harden (look what they've done) i'm sure reed can hang in the majors.

[SuperSteve]

I don't think we'll be far out of it if he plays. It can also bare a trade if we make one. Who knows. We shall see if he beats out Rowand or starts another way by the start of the season. If he tears up AAA, and is drawing twice as many walks as k's I wouldn't want him stuck there the rest of the year. If Reed was in the vote as Cabrera and Harden (look what they've done) i'm sure reed can hang in the majors.

I'd love him to be up, but unless Mags is gone, I do not see him being here (atleast at the get go).

[SoxAce]

I'd love him to be up, but unless Mags is gone, I do not see him being here (atleast at the get go).

Who knows man. Rowand should have been starting for us 3 seasons ago. Freak accidents happen to him. (figuratively and literally)

[whitesox61382]

After the top 3(Reed, Honel, and Cotts) the rest of the top 10 propsect list gets tricky and thats why you didn't see the same top 10 list. Some posters like certain prospects better then others. Some posters rate them by "potential" while others rate them by "performance". Here are some of the things that I look at before throwing together a top 10 list(in no particular order of importance).

 

1) I have a firm role that a player CAN NOT be over the age of 25 to be considered a prospect. This is my own rule, although most "expert" rankings take into consideration a similar role. I think a line needs to be drawn between prospect and career minor leaguer/failed prospect. One reason I picked 26 or older was because there is a strong correlation between making the majorsbefore 26 and becoming solid major league players. Rarely do you see guys make the majors after 25 and become solid players.

 

2) Upper minors over the lower minors. I put more stock in guys in the upper minors(Rauch, Diaz, and Borchard) than guys in the lower minors(Anderson, Sweeney, and Valido). The guys in the lower minors might have more "potential", but there is a long way between rookie ball and the majors, and on the long road a lot of things could happen(struggles, injuries, ect). I would say that the 2 rookie ball teams have the most raw talent, but I would argue that more then half the guys that put up good numbers(in rookie ball) will never even make it to the majors. Because of this I reward players in the upper minors because they have survived the lower minors and are very close to the majors, and in the end the only thing that matters is major league production. Its also hard to project how prospects in rookie ball are going to develop, especially after only half a season.

 

3) Consistancy. I like it when a prospect is consistant from level to level in the minors. Honel is a perfect example of this, and his consistancy is why I have him rated higher then a pitcher with arguable more "potential" who has been inconsistant(Cotts).

 

4) Age. A guy could be putting up dominating numbers, but if he is 24 in low A ball that really hurts his value. A good example of this is Meaux. Conversely, if a 21 year old is putting up good numbers in AAA, than that helps his value. I follow a pretty basic step rull when it comes to figuring ages for certain levels.

 

Rookie Ball - 21

low A - 22

high A - 23

AA - 24

AAA - 25

 

If a prospect is older then the listed age at that level, than I take that into consideration.

 

5) Numbers. I look at a lot of numbers, but two stats I really look at for both pitchers and hitters is BB and SO. I love good plate disipline in young hitters(one of the reasons I am high on Reed and why he was #8 on my list at the start of last year) and I love pitchers with good BB:SO ratios. Hitters with plate disipline as a young hitter are generally more likely to develop, and pitchers with good control and high strikeout totals are generally more likely to develop. I look at all of the stats for a player, but in most cases I weigh BB and SO the highest.

 

6) Injuries. Has a player had a major injury that might affect his progress? Unfortunately, pitchers like Rauch and Stumm that have had major surgury on their pitching arm are fair less likely to make the majors then guys that have a clean bill of health.

 

These are the major catogories that I look at when it comes to ranking prospects. With that said, here is my top 10 list.

 

1) Reed - Everywhere this guy has been he has hit. His plate disipline is amazing for a kid his age. After his big year he has to be #1.

 

2) Honel - Consistancy. This kid has consistantly put up good numbers from day 1(fewer hits than IP, close to a 1:1 SO:IP ratio, very good BB:SO ratio, ect)

 

3) Cotts - I normally wouldn't rank Cotts that high, because guys with his control problems, despite his good raw stuff and numbers, generally don't suceed in the majors. However, the Sox system is very weak right now, especially in the upper minors.

 

4) Rauch - I was very surprised that he didn't get a shot last year and I believe that he will be the favorite to win a spot if the Sox give a rotation spot to a youngster. He put together a solid year last year in AAA including a dominating second half.

 

5) Diaz - I am a huge fan of this guy. He has a good combination of raw stuff and good(consistant) minor league numbers. He is also coming off a good year in winter ball. I have a feeling that he will play an important role next year either in the pen or rotation.

 

6) Wing - A lefty with plus stuff and good numbers has him at #6, however, his control is a bit of an issue as he reaches the higher minors.

 

7) Borchard - I have never been a huge fan of Borchard, but his potential along with either a good ST or 2-3 months in AAA could have him playing an important role in the majors next year.

 

8) Anderson - If he can stay healthy, he has the raw tools to climb the minors very fast. Like I mentioned before, I go to the U of A, so I got to see him play in person. He is a true 5 tool player, however, I am a little cautious because his junior year was his 1st big year, and he sometimes strikesout a little too much.

 

9) Sweeney - The steal of the 2003 draft. I have become a huge fan of this guy(in only half a year). This guy has unlimited potential and could surpass Anderson(along with a few other on this list) in the very near future.

 

10) Munoz - Even after a so-so year in AAA, I still think this guy has good potential. One of the things that I like about him is his age. Most guys his age are in A ball, but he was pitching in AAA. He has a plus arm and after the 1st couple of weeks he put together a pretty solid year.

 

Guys just missing the list(in no particular order):

Majewski - Still young, and put a solid year together in AAA.

Pacheco - 1st good year, and the fact that he will be 25 prevents him from making the list.

Malone - Came back from an injury and pitched well. Next year will be a big year for him.

Yan - His speed is hard to ignore, but unless he can get on base consistantly he won't be in the majors.

Castro(Julio and Fabio) - Both of them put up some impressive number.

Phillips - Young lefty with good control.

Tisch - Big righty with a plus arm and solid number.

LaMura - Might have the best "raw" stuff of all the Sox pitchers

Valido - The only true middle infield prospect. Has a chance to be very good.

Young - 5 tool outfielder who had a great year. His strikeouts are a little high.

Lopez(Orionny) - I am a huge fan of this guy and he put together his 2nd solid year in rookie ball.

Nanita - Came out of nowhere to put a great year together. Is a little old and needs to show same potential in higher minors.

Bounds - He is a little old for rookie ball, but his numbers are hard to ignore.

King - After a slow start, finished the year hitting over .300.

McCarthy - Big righty with an outstanding BB:SO ratio.

 

Sorry for the length.

[aboz56]

Nanita is 22, he's from a Juco school and he'll move up the ladder quickly if he continues to hit like he did last year. I really wouldn't consider 22 "a little old," but hey, your rankings are your rankings my friend.

[winninguglyin83]

22 is old for the level of ball he played

 

Nanita will need play well Kannapolis and probably make the jump to Winston Salem by the end of the season.

 

at 22, he was playing against a lot of pitchers two or three younger than him last summer. A number were just out of high school

 

That's an advantage that disappears as you move up the system.

[whitesox61382]

Nanita is 22, he's from a Juco school and he'll move up the ladder quickly if he continues to hit like he did last year.  I really wouldn't consider 22 "a little old," but hey, your rankings are your rankings my friend.

Thank you Ugly. Thats exactly what I meant when I said he was a little old. 22 is very old for rookie ball, especially when you are facing a lot of inconsistant 18-19 year old pitchers right out of high school. I love the numbers that he put up, but to be considered for MY top 10 list he will have to continue to put up good numbers in the higher minors against players his own age.

[aboz56]

Thank you Ugly. Thats exactly what I meant when I said he was a little old. 22 is very old for rookie ball, especially when you are facing a lot of inconsistant 18-19 year old pitchers right out of high school. I love the numbers that he put up, but to be considered for MY top 10 list he will have to continue to put up good numbers in the higher minors against players his own age.

Fair enough.

[Rex Hudler]

Sox61382, I don't say this often, but I agree with everything you said.

 

Personally, I don't believe in "hard rules" but i completely agree with the premise behind each one of yours.

 

The list you saw posted earlier is what I think BA will list as our Top 10. It is not far off from mine (I don't think any of our lists are a lot different), but my intention was to take a shot at what BA will do.

 

On my own list, I would probably drop some of the younger guys a little, but not too much because I think that is where the Sox strength lies. The sheer volume of guys last year that put up great numbers gives me hope that several will break through and be good Major Leaguers. Obviously not all of them will. One reason why I think some of the younger guys will make the list is the Pioneer League was very strong this year. I am told it was deeper than it had been in the recent memory of several people.

 

I didn't put as much stock in Rauch and Diaz as you only because I think they have somewhat spun their wheels in AAA. I was also never really sold on Rauch as a top-notch starter so there is that doubt in the back of my head, regardless of how he was affected by the injury and the Sox mishandling. Diaz has potential, but he needs to step up now. He is still young for his experience level, but you don't see many top prospects spend three years at the same level, which he will do this year unless he steps up.

 

The easiest thing to do is to become enamored by the young guys with one good season, but that is risky in predicting he future for all of the reasons you mentioned.

 

I'm not sure when we will agree so completely again, but hey, I'll enjoy it while it lasts. LOL

[Rex Hudler]

In the FWIW department.......

 

I had a nice talk with my dentist on Monday and we talked a lot about Jeremy Reed. He is a big baseball guy who has followed both Major and Minor League ball for many years and seen many more players than I ever have come up through the ranks.

 

In our discussion about Reed, he said that Jeremy really reminds him of Rafael Palmeiro when he first came up. If you recall, the Cubs traded him because no one thought he would ever hit for any power, yet he had a sweet swing. He said Reed has a similar swing.

 

I'm not predicting that Reed will become a 50 HR guy (nor was he) but I found it interesting.

[aboz56]

Just to point this out, I was looking at some of BA's reports from back in October and I think Valido will be included in the top 10. On their draft analysis, look at where they rated Valido on some of their lists from the entire draft.

 

High School Players

 

1. Ian Stewart, 3b, Rockies (1)

2. Xavier Paul, of, Dodgers (4)

3. Robert Valido, ss, White Sox (4)

4. Eric Duncan, 3b, Yankees (1)

5. Chris Lubanski, of, Royals (1)

 

BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER

 

1. Matt Pagnozzi, c, Cardinals (8)

2. Justin Ruchti, c, Mariners (9)

3. Anthony Gwynn, of, Brewers (2)

4. Robert Valido, ss, White Sox (4)

5. Tony Giarratano, ss, Tigers (3)

 

High School Players Closest To The Majors

 

1. Delmon Young, of, Devil Rays (1)

2. Jeff Allison, rhp, Marlins (1)

3. Chad Billingsley, rhp, Dodgers (1)

4. Robert Valido, ss, White Sox (4)

5. Xavier Paul, of, Dodgers (4)

 

Looks like they love Valido and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the BA top 10.

[YASNY]

Just to point this out, I was looking at some of BA's reports from back in October and I think Valido will be included in the top 10.  On their draft analysis, look at where they rated Valido on some of their lists from the entire draft.

 

High School Players

 

1. Ian Stewart, 3b, Rockies (1)

2. Xavier Paul, of, Dodgers (4)

3. Robert Valido, ss, White Sox (4)

4. Eric Duncan, 3b, Yankees (1)

5. Chris Lubanski, of, Royals (1)

 

BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER

 

1. Matt Pagnozzi, c, Cardinals (8)

2. Justin Ruchti, c, Mariners (9)

3. Anthony Gwynn, of, Brewers (2)

4. Robert Valido, ss, White Sox (4)

5. Tony Giarratano, ss, Tigers (3)

 

High School Players Closest To The Majors

 

1. Delmon Young, of, Devil Rays (1)

2. Jeff Allison, rhp, Marlins (1)

3. Chad Billingsley, rhp, Dodgers (1)

4. Robert Valido, ss, White Sox (4)

5. Xavier Paul, of, Dodgers (4)

 

Looks like they love Valido and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the BA top 10.

You mean the White Sox actually have a decent SS prospect? I'm flabbergasted.