C.Rector Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 A great many of you have expressed the belief that the Cubs are a lock to improve on their 2003 just 5 outs from the World Series performance. Well, a Cincinnati Reds fansite has done a team by team preview of the 2004 National League Central Division race and has predicted that the Cubs will finish in 3rd place. http://redsbaseball.blogspot.com/2004_01_1...ll_archive.html 2004 Outlook The Cubs are roughly the same team they are last year, with a couple of key additions. Derrek Lee should make a difference with an offense that has struggled to produce runs in large quantities, and La Troy Hawkins makes a solid bullpen top notch. The Cubs roster took a hit losing Kenny Lofton and Randall Simon, and the people who will be sitting on the Cubs bench don't inspire confidence. Todd Walker will be the best of the bunch, but after him there's nothing but mediocrity. Tom Goodwin, Ramon Martinez, and Todd Hollandsworth should make Cubs fans a little worried. The Cubs are probably the least injury proof of any of the top three teams in the NL Central. They lose Sammy Sosa? They're done. Prior? Done. Wood? Done. Lack of depth will have to catch up with them at some point. I honestly see last season as a fluke. Houston should have won the division, and handily, but luck was the Cubs friend for once. I don't see it happening again, in fact I see them finishing no better than third. The Cubs are my pick for flop of the season, and I fully expect many "What's wrong with the Cubs?" articles as we progress into the season. They won't be terrible, but I don't see them being much better than the team that won 88 games last season. I expect another year with a win total in the low to mid-80's, but that's not going to be enough this season. (Thanks to Northside Baseball for pointing out my mistake in having Hawkins as closer as opposed to Borowski, and for pointing out my mistake with Ohman as well. Both have been corrected.) Cubs Blog: The Cub Reporter My early NL Central Predictions: 1. Houston 2. St. Louis 3. Chicago 4. Cincinnati 5. Milwaukee 6. Pittsburgh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slick03 Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 good article, i dont think thell finish third, but it will definitley be closer than last year's central race :fthecubs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBAHO Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 Can't see da Caridnals beatin da Cubbies unless sum1 like Wainwright comes up from da minors and pitches really well for em. They need Morris and Woody Williams to win at least 35 games as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slick03 Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 Can't see da Caridnals beatin da Cubbies unless sum1 like Wainwright comes up from da minors and pitches really well for em. They need Morris and Woody Williams to win at least 35 games as well. agreed, but houston is sure going to give em hell this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Rector Posted February 3, 2004 Author Share Posted February 3, 2004 Some time later in response to criticism from Cubs fans, the Cincinnati fan posted the following: http://redsbaseball.blogspot.com/2004_01_2...ll_archive.html Neyer Handicaps the NL Central Rob Neyer just posted a column discussing something I'd intended to discuss tonight. I took a lot of flack on a Cubs message board for my NL Central predictions recently. Here were my predictions: 1. Houston 2. St. Louis 3. Chicago 4. Cincinnati 5. Milwaukee 6. Pittsburgh I based those predictions on Houston badly underperforming their pythagorean record last year, and on how many more runs St. Louis scored than Chicago and Houston. Houston has only gotten better, and their runs scored differential had them at 95 wins last season. I think its very likely that they'll end up in the mid 90s in wins, with St. Louis in the high 80s, and Chicago in the mid 80s. Neyer on the NL Central race: Here's a salient fact: in 2003 the Cardinals scored 876 runs, which was 71 more than the Astros scored and 151 more than the Cubs scored. Yes, the Cubs had better pitching than the Cardinals ... but it wasn't that much better. It wasn't better enough to offset the difference in their runs scored. So (you might be asking) how did the Cubs beat out the Cardinals by three games in the standings? Simple: one-run games. The Cubs were 27-17 in one-run games (in the National League, only the Giants were better), and the Cardinals were 14-25 in one-run games (only the Mets were worse). There is one, and only one, legitimate explanation for those one-run records, and that explanation is blind luck. I know many of you believe that one-run records are determined largely by bullpens and/or "chemistry," but there simply isn't any evidence that either of those plays a significant factor in one-run games. Last year in one-run games, the Tigers had a winning record (19-18) and the Braves had a losing record (17-25). If you accept the truth -- that the outcomes of one-run games are heavily freighted with luck -- then you also have to acknowledge the possibility that the Cardinals were actually better than the Cubs last season. After all, the Cards outscored their opponents by 80 runs, the Cubs by only 42. Yes, the Cubs have improved this winter, with the addition of Derrek Lee and the presumed additions of full seasons from Corey Patterson and Aramis Ramirez. But Lee replaces Eric Karros (who was actually pretty decent last season), and Patterson's healthy days replace Kenny Lofton's productive fill-in time. Of course, I'm simplifying for the sake of my argument. Full seasons of Lee, Patterson, and (especially) Ramirez represent real upgrades for the Cubs. And just getting Shawn Estes out of the rotation, no matter who takes his place, will help. Too, the Cardinals haven't exactly made a big splash this winter, their big moves consisting of signing Jeff Suppan and Reggie Sanders. So yes, the Cubs are ahead of the Cardinals in the Hot Stove Derby. Not by a lot, though. They haven't separated themselves from the Cardinals. And they're still behind the Astros. Here's what I said last Monday about St. Louis: Minor quibbles aside, the Cardinals should have one of the best lineup's in the game, and could very well score the most runs in the National League. And yet no one seems to be mentioning them when it comes to the NL Central race. Analysts have all but written off the race as a Cubs/Astros only affair, and if I was a Cardinal fan, I'd be a little annoyed. Runs Scored 2003 Cardinals: 876 Astros: 805 Cubs: 725 Obviously that doesn't mean the world, as the actual standings last season finished in inverse order compared to the runs scored standings, but if the Cardinals score 150 more runs than the Cubs again this year, we may see a different result. The Cubs and Astros simply don't have as much margin for error as the Cardinals. St. Louis can beat other teams to death... Barring the normal deviations like injuries and unexpected trades and acquisitions, I don't really see how Houston loses the division this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slick03 Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 i believe also that the cards had the most or close to it blown saves in the mlb last year, if im not mistaken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 Unless Maddux signs with the Cards, they will not finish ahead of the Cubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Critic Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 Like it or not, I think the Cubs will win their division. Not entirely sold on the two Spankees pitching in a bandbox instead of that Death Valley in left-center at Spankee Cemetary. The Astros have similar offense compared to the Cubs, Dotel is unproven as a closer ( although I think he'll be great ) and the Cubs have superior pitching in my opinion. I'd like to be wrong, but I can't see the Cubs NOT winning that division. The Cardinals will be a non-factor - their pitching is weak, and their rotation stands to be REALLY bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YASNY Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 Unless Maddux signs with the Cards, they will not finish ahead of the Cubs. I'll take a piece of that. I say St Louis finishes above the Cubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 I'll take a piece of that. I say St Louis finishes above the Cubs. You're on Yas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 i would love to see scrubs finish last. :fthecubs but think they'll finish second behind houston and at best get into playoffs via wild card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 I don't even want to talk about the cubs.. :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrimsonWeltall Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 Sammy Sosa, on the orders of Optimus Prime, is going to start using an aluminum bat, allowing him to hit 93 HRs all solo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted February 3, 2004 Share Posted February 3, 2004 Like it or not, I think the Cubs will win their division. Not entirely sold on the two Spankees pitching in a bandbox instead of that Death Valley in left-center at Spankee Cemetary. The Astros have similar offense compared to the Cubs, Dotel is unproven as a closer ( although I think he'll be great ) and the Cubs have superior pitching in my opinion. I'd like to be wrong, but I can't see the Cubs NOT winning that division. The Cardinals will be a non-factor - their pitching is weak, and their rotation stands to be REALLY bad. This is what I was going to say, but you got to it first and said it better. Sure the Cubs lost Lofton and Simon, but replaced them with Derrek Lee and will get Corey Patterson back. That is atleast a wash if not an improvement for the Cubs. Their s***ty bullpen has been strengthened quite a bit by just the one move. Also, I do not see Sosa having another crappy year. The Cubs rotation will once again be a big strength for them, and I expect Clement to rebound and have a good year, with Zambrano being the one who maybe regresses a little. While Houston's rotation has gotten better, their bullpen took a huge hit. Sure they added Pettitte and Clemens, but they lost Billy Wagner. That is something you can't replace. That would be comparable to us losing Marte, who is the best lefty in the game not named Wagner. Also, what one of the articles doesn't mention when referring to the Cubs 27-17 record in 1-run games is that the Cubs had the best team suited to do that kind of thing. Winning 1-run games is not a matter of luck. Their team is built to win those types of games, and the Twins is as well. The White Sox are not built that way, the Astros are not built that way, and the Cardinals are not built that way. You CANNOT depend on the home run to win close games, and that is something the White Sox, Astros, and Cardinals did last year....and something the Twins and Cubs did not. Do you notice which two teams made the playoffs out of those 5 teams? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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