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winninguglyin83

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I think we can tell how the season will go after the first 6 weeks. If the 3-5 spots in the rotation are getting shellacked, if the baserunning is comical, if the bullpen is blowing leads, and if the hitting is spotty, then we all know it's just another bad start and a potentially bad season.

 

I think a manager can affect a team - TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. He can't hit for them, pitch for them, or throw for them, but he can make the right moves and decisions which could help the team win games that they might have lost under another manager - "borderline" games that could go either way.

 

My only worry is that Ozzie's "fiery" attitude and enthusiasm will wear thin and burn out at some point in the season. Some players get tired of that "rah rah" stuff really quickly.

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I think we can tell how the season will go after the first 6 weeks.  If the 3-5 spots in the rotation ar getting shellacked, if the baserunning is comical, if the bullpen is blowing leads, and if the hitting is spotty, then we all know it's just another bad start and a potentially bad season. 

 

I think a manager can affect a team - TO A CERTAIN EXTENT.  He can't hit for them, pitch for them, or throw for them, but he can make the right moves and decisions which could help the team win games that they might have lost under another manager - "borderline" games that could go either way. 

 

My only worry is that Ozzie's "fiery" attitude and enthusiasm will wear thin and burn out at some point in the season.  Some players get tired of that "rah rah" stuff really quickly.

You make a good team and you can only hope that the Sox dont start like that. Man would we be in for a long one if they started that poorly. What we need is quality pitching outings from Garland and Scho to start off.

 

Also you have to worry about Frank and Ozzie. They could potentially end up getting the worst of each other and thus creating a mess in the clubhouse or they could get the best of each other. It all depends on how there love/hate relationship works out.

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All we need is a fast start. Last couple years we've gotten off to a slow start when we played the royals.Then at the end of the season were scrapping to get into first place. I think with Ozzie at the helm he will bring much needed energy to this team. Theres a lot of ifs involved but i think it can be done.

All we need is a fast start, a fast middle, and a fast finish ..... after which, we need to really get hot.

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KC has the best bullpen by default??? Are you crazy??? Have you even looked at the stats??? Do you realize that KC had the worst bullpen, by far(2nd worst bullpen ERA in AL was 4.84), in the majors last year?

 

- KC 2003 bullpen ERA 5.55

 

Key Additions

Sullivan(Cincy/Sox) 64 IP 3.66 ERA 0 SV

Leskanic(full year) 52.2 IP 2.22 ERA 2 SV with KC: 26 IP 1.73 ERA 2 SV

Cerda(Mets) 32.1 IP 5.85 ERA 0 SV

 

Key Subtractions

Levine 21.1 IP 2.53 ERA 1 SV

 

Analysis - The Royals bullpen should be better, if for no other reason because it can't get much worse. They have made some decent personal improvements. Adding Sullivan will give them a solid right handed set up pitcher. They also get a full year out of Leskanic, however those two alone won't make the majors worst bullpen into the strongest in the AL Central. If I had to make a prediction, than I would guess their bullpen will have an ERA in the high 4's, with the best case scenerio being the mid 4's

one key point to add against the royals having a good bullpen...none of those guys you mentioned is a lefty...they have ZERO lefties right now...darrel may or one of their lefty starters from last year will have to convert to the pen..thats a huge question mark for them..especially when they play the twins...unfortunately it wont matter too much against the sox since we have the same problem in our batting order for the 4th year in a row now :angry:

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KC has a killer first two months, if they can survive it and by within 5 games of 1st watch out.

 

Minny on the other hand, if they have a good West coast trip in May could break out to a 2000 Sox type lead by July 1st. They do have a brutal August but KC and the Sox may have already white flagged it by then.

 

IMO the Sox best chance rest with Koch and whether he regains his velocity, we should know that in less than 10 days.

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one key point to add against the royals having a good bullpen...none of those guys you mentioned is a lefty...they have ZERO lefties right now...darrel may or one of their lefty starters from last  year will have to convert to the pen..thats a huge question mark for them..especially when they play the twins...unfortunately it wont matter too much against the sox since we have the same problem in our batting order for the 4th year in a row now  :angry:

That depends if Affeldt is in the rotation or pen, if he's in the rotation then yea they still need a lefty.

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The Royals I believe look the best on paper, just because they have added a lot over the winter, guys like Gonzo, Graff, and Sullivan, while the Sox and Twins have done nothing but hurt themselves.

Scott Sullivan? I went to 10 games last season and every time I saw him pitch he walked a lot of batters and gave up runs and was booed off the field more than once. Am I missing something here?

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Scott Sullivan?  I went to 10 games last season and every time I saw him pitch he walked a lot of batters and gave up runs and was booed off the field more than once.  Am I missing something here?

Your impression of Sullivan is right on target.

 

However, a lot of the other posters take the knee-jerk attitude that if a player either leaves the Sox for Free Agency or is traded away, then he is a valuable player who the Sox management stupidly let go.

 

Another example of this is Aaron Miles. When he was here, folks hardly cared about him at all. The moment he was traded for Juan Uribe, Miles all of a sudden became the great player who was traded away in a fit of insanity by KW.

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Your impression of Sullivan is right on target.

His numbers don't look that bad to me:

 

(I tried using spaces, but it wouldn't show up in the preview so I am trying this way to make the stats more readable.)

 

Team

CHA

 

G GS W L SV CG SHO

15 0 0 0 0 0 0

 

IP H R ER HR

14.1 9 6 6 2

 

BB K ERA WHIP BAA

6 13 3.77 1.05 .184

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Your impression of Sullivan is right on target.

 

However, a lot of the other posters take the knee-jerk attitude that if a player either leaves the Sox for Free Agency or is traded away, then he is a valuable player who the Sox management stupidly let go. 

 

Another example of this is Aaron Miles.  When he was here, folks hardly cared about him at all.  The moment he was traded for Juan Uribe, Miles all of a sudden became the great player who was traded away in a fit of insanity by KW.

alot of us have ben talking about miles for 2 years now...you can go back and check the archives if you want proof...hsc, myself , afew other (maybe yasny) were pleading last year to give miles the 2nd base job over jimenez...

 

 

hsc was a huge supportrer of aaron miles...she was the first to notice him when she saw him play in birmingham

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alot of us have ben talking about miles for 2 years now...you can go back and check the archives if you want proof...hsc, myself , afew other (maybe yasny) were pleading last year to give miles the 2nd base job over jimenez...

 

 

hsc was a huge supportrer of aaron miles...she was the first to notice him when she saw him play in birmingham

Still is, she basically b****ed out Kenny for trading him for Uribe at the Q&A.

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Scott Sullivan?  I went to 10 games last season and every time I saw him pitch he walked a lot of batters and gave up runs and was booed off the field more than once.  Am I missing something here?

That's because you were watching him at the Cell.

 

His splits at the Cell: 9 innings, 7 hits, 6 runs allowed(all earned), 2 homers allowed, 6 walks and 8 K's. ERA of 6.00, WHIP of 1.44, though opponents hit just .219 against him.

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Boog:

 

I decided to crunch some numbers to compare these two offenses based on OPS (I know that no single state describes how good an offense is, but OPS is a good benchmark). I made OPS projections based on recent performance (last three years) with an emphasis on the most recent years.

 

I made some assumptions in coming up with these estimates, including:

 

- Uribe will get sigificant AB's, sharing time with Harris and Valentin.

 

- Rowand will get the vast majority of time in CF, but will share it somewhat with Harris.

 

- Valentin won't be platooned more than he was last season (unless and until Ozzie says it's going to happen, then I'm not going to presume that Ozzie is going to give a veteran middle infielder less playing time).

 

- Gonzo won't play a full season due to injury (for the sake of argument, I used 400 AB's which is what some Sox fans estimated before the Royals signed him)

 

- Stairs and Harvey will primarily be used in platoon roles (as the Royals GM and manager have said), until Gonzalez is hurt, at which time both players AB's will increase and the opportunity for them to platoon will decrease

 

Let me know which numbers you disagree with, but I would respectfully suggest that if you disagree with a particular prediction that you look at their stats over the last three years, with a particular emphasis on 2003 stats (and splits where appropriate) before countering with a counter-prediction. Anyway, here are the numbers:

 

Chicago White Sox

PLAYER - AB - OPS

Rowand - 500 - 780

Valentin - 475 - 765

Thomas - 550 - 940

Ordonez - 600 - 930

Lee - 600 - 825

Konerko - 550 - 805

Crede - 575 - 780

Olivo - 450 - 675

Harris - 350 - 600

S. Alomar - 125 - 685

Uribe - 300 - 665

Reed - 225 - 705

UI - 150 - 575

UO - 125 - 630

TOTAL - 5575 - 778

 

Kansas City Royals

PLAYER - AB - OPS

Guiel - 550 - 800

Beltran - 600 - 910

Sweeney - 525 - 940

Gonzalez - 400 - 900

Randa - 550 - 770

Berroa - 575 - 815

Santiago - 425 - 750

Harvey - 400 - 800

Relaford - 425 - 720

Stairs - 425 - 850

Graffanino - 225 - 760

Stinnett - 200 - 650

UO - 150 - 625

UI - 125 - 575

TOTAL - 5575 - 808

 

maggsformayor

 

Boogs, as always this post is completely flawed. The reason that both teams overall OPS is higher than it will actually be is because you give too many AB's to the top 12. I know that you assume that both teams will stay relatively healthy, but last year the Royals had 493 AB's and the Sox had a wooping 1000+ AB's by players that weren't in the top 12. The Sox total leads me to believe that their is room for improvement, ie I think the Sox will get more AB's from their top 12 which should help their overall OPS. I will give my predictions and reasons why they are more accurate :)

 

Sox

Player-AB's-OPS

Rowand 450 .750 - I think you are a bit optimistic with Rowand

Valentin 450 .775 - I think he will play mostly against righties

Thomas 550 .920 - I think you are optimistic with Thomas also

Ordonez 600 .930 - You Ordonez predictions are accurate IMO

Lee 600 .835 - You really don't like Lee

Konerko 550 .810 - I think he will rebound, but not completely

Crede 550 .770 - Builds on his strong finish

Olivo 400 .670 - Slight improvement

Harris 400 .600 - I think your Harris prediction is accurate

Alomar 150 .675 - DL "alomar" will hopefully teach Olivo

Uribe 250 .665 - Platoon with Valentin against lefties

Reed 150 .725 - Won't get called up until mid-season

Other 450 .600 - Injuries and other role players

Total 5550 .770

 

KC

Player-AB's-OPS

Guiel 450 .775 - Career minor leaguer that posted a .634 OPS in 2002

Beltran 575 .910 - Pretty accurate and one of my favorite non-Sox

Sweeney 500 .920 - Decrease in AB's the last 3 years

JuanGone 400 .875 - I have to stick with my prediction when the Sox were after him

Randa 550 .780 - Quitely puts together solid years

Berroa 575 .810 - Small improvement ala Crede/Olivo

Santiago 400 .740 - I would how much is left in the 39 year old

Harvey 400 .730 - Ugliest swing the majors, you drasticly overrate him

Relaford 450 .710 - Right around his career averages

Stairs 325 .830 - Decent against righties

Graffy 250 .740 - Around career averages

Stinnett 200 .650 - Below average catcher

Other 475 .600 - Injuries and other role players

Total 5550 .785

 

I think this is more realistic. KC will probably have a higher OPS, although that doesn't necessarily mean that they will score more runs(see 2003 Sox vs Royals). The Royals do have an advantage, but I question how much a decrease in BA with runners in scoring position will have.

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