Greenspan testimony

[southsider2k5]

It was pretty interesting to watch personally. I am sure to most it was like watching paint dry. But some of the highlights were as follows

 

-Called Bush's figure of 2.6 million new jobs in 2004 feasible, but it depends on sustained higher growth rates. Also quoted the figure that 1 million people are hired for jobs every week, and an almost equal number either quit or lose their jobs. That saids a lot about the volitility of the job market. He also addressed the issue of foreign outsourcing of jobs saying it was inevitable happening, but that the US economy has always found a way to replace those jobs with higher paying work, because US income has continued to rise.

 

-Said that foreign capital flight isn't as much of an issue as I personally thought it would be. Because most of the US debt held by foreign central banks is in shorter term notes that the affect on interest rates would be minimal, and that foreign capital was still a net huge inflow even with the depreciation of the US dollar abroad.

 

-He actually addressed full employment for the first time I can ever remember, and the chair of my econ department was wrong Greenspan said that this economy could move to an unemployment rate of about 4% without seeing inflation. Because of that and higher than formerly projected growth rates, he sees no need for raise in the interest rates in the short term.

 

-He said that the deficit isn't a big issue short term, but it has to be addressed long term, and that he supports the reinstituition of spending caps (as do I, as no one seems to be able to do it themselves)

 

That is what I remember right now... I am trying to find a transcript so that I can pull out somemore info, if anyone else is interested.

[southsider2k5]

These are his prepared remarks, I can't find a transcript that you don't have to pay for.

 

Greenspan prepared remarks

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

It was pretty interesting to watch personally.  I am sure to most it was like watching paint dry.  But some of the highlights were as follows

 

-Called Bush's figure of  2.6 million new jobs in 2004 feasible, but it depends on sustained higher growth rates.  Also quoted the figure that 1 million people are hired for jobs every week, and an almost equal number either quit or lose their jobs.  That saids a lot about the volitility of the job market.  He also addressed the issue of foreign outsourcing of jobs saying it was inevitable happening, but that the US economy has always found a way to replace those jobs with higher paying work, because US income has continued to rise.

 

-Said that foreign capital flight isn't as much of an issue as I personally thought it would be.  Because most of the US debt held by foreign central banks is in shorter term notes that the affect on interest rates would be minimal, and that foreign capital was still a net huge inflow even with the depreciation of the US dollar abroad.

 

-He actually addressed full employment for the first time I can ever remember, and the chair of my econ department was wrong Greenspan said that this economy could move to an unemployment rate of about 4% without seeing inflation.  Because of that and higher than formerly projected growth rates, he sees no need for raise in the interest rates in the short term.

 

-He said that the deficit isn't a big issue short term, but it has to be addressed long term, and that he supports the reinstituition of spending caps (as do I, as no one seems to be able to do it themselves)

 

That is what I remember right now... I am trying to find a transcript so that I can pull out somemore info, if anyone else is interested.

Basically he was saying that despite all the leftist hysteria about the economy that things are going to be alright. Not that I was worried anyway.

[Queen Prawn]

Basically he was saying that despite all the leftist hysteria about the economy that things are going to be alright.  Not that I was worried anyway.

Someone should tell that to Brian's company. They are very close to closing their doors right now...

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Someone should tell that to Brian's company.  They are very close to closing their doors right now... 

I hate to sound insensitive but one company does not an economy make.

[southsider2k5]

Basically he was saying that despite all the leftist hysteria about the economy that things are going to be alright.  Not that I was worried anyway.

I'd hardly call it leftist hysteria. When it comes to economy I am about as conservative as they come, and this jobless recovery has really had me worried. This has been one of the slowest coming recoveries since the great derpression. It just seems the phsycology of recovery has taken hold enough, that investment and hiring might actually be starting to happen.

[kapkomet]

You can't build an economy based on information. And all the "hands on jobs" are leaving this country for . Gee? I wonder why there's no job growth?

[southsider2k5]

You can't build an economy based on information.  And all the "hands on jobs" are leaving this country for .  Gee?  I wonder why there's no job growth?

According to Greeny it is the rises in productivity outpacing production, making it unnecesary for hiring to take place.

 

According to me, the focus on stock price has led to hiring to be less and less of an investment priority because you want to keep costs as low and flexible as possible to keep good earnings reports flowing out.

 

I wish one of these pretencious assholes would ask Greenspan an intelligent question like my theory so that I could hear what he thinks, instead of putting on a show for their constituents. You have the premier economic mind of the 20th century sitting and answering questions, and they are too busy trying to trash/reelect Bush to ask an insightful question.

[Queen Prawn]

I hate to sound insensitive but one company does not an economy make.

I already went through a layoff, my mom's company is looking like it's gonna fold, I know several others who lost their jobs through layoffs and still can't find jobs.

 

Oh well.

[kapkomet]

According to Greeny it is the rises in productivity outpacing production, making it unnecesary for hiring to take place.

 

According to me, the focus on stock price has led to hiring to be less and less of an investment priority because you want to keep costs as low and flexible as possible to keep good earnings reports flowing out.

 

I wish one of these pretencious assholes would ask Greenspan an intelligent question like my theory so that I could hear what he thinks, instead of putting on a show for their constituents.  You have the premier economic mind of the 20th century sitting and answering questions, and they are too busy trying to trash/reelect Bush to ask an insightful question.

Well no sh*t, Greeny. It's because companies that are around are piling on the work with what they have. Every damn place I work for wants to do the job with 5 people instead of the 7 or 8 that it takes to do it right. And there are rises in productivity.

 

Kapkomet's Theory of USA economy:

 

Same work + more layoffs = less people to do the same crap (Greenspeak for higher productivity).

 

This is not rocket science.

[southsider2k5]

Well no sh*t, Greeny.  It's because companies that are around are piling on the work with what they have.  Every damn place I work for wants to do the job with 5 people instead of the 7 or 8 that it takes to do it right.  And there are rises in productivity. 

 

Kapkomet's Theory of USA economy:

 

Same work + more layoffs = less people to do the same crap (Greenspeak for higher productivity).

 

This is not rocket science.

The problem is that is cannot go on indefinately because the productivity of such work cannot be sustained. People breakdown, feel they are underpaid, pout, find higher paying work that pays them what they are due, etc.

 

I am sure much of the short term productivity gains are due to that, but long term technology is the pusher of gains. More and more companies are turning to machines, computers, robots, etc to do human jobs. Those productivity gains are constant and sustainable, putting twice as much work on a human isn't.

[southsider2k5]

One of the highlights of today's testimony is that Alan thinks the tax cuts should be made permanent and we should instead look at spending cuts.

 

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle....storyID=4347576

[kapkomet]

The problem is that is cannot go on indefinately because the productivity of such work cannot be sustained.  People breakdown, feel they are underpaid, pout, find higher paying work that pays them what they are due, etc.

 

I am sure much of the short term productivity gains are due to that, but long term technology is the pusher of gains.  More and more companies are turning to machines, computers, robots, etc to do human jobs.  Those productivity gains are constant and sustainable, putting twice as much work on a human isn't.

Sure it is. That's part of the problem right now. Look at unions. Why do you think that all these jobs go elsewhere? Because they can get productivity somewhere else for less money. And then all those union people get displaced, and at some point, they go back to work, working their ass off for less money. It's a big ol' cycle. And productivity #'s will continue to rise because there are so many people that are not working that eventually they have to go back and work their ass off for less money.

 

There's always someone willing to step into a job when a person gets sick of it. And 90% of the time, when person A leaves a job, person B is hired for a lot less and still expected to do the same job performace as person A.

 

It's all BS, smoke and mirrors. There will not be a job explosion anytime soon because of some of these reasons.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Basically he was saying that despite all the leftist hysteria about the economy that things are going to be alright.  Not that I was worried anyway.

It's Greenspan's job to enstill confidence in the economy. He says the same thing 8 times a year.

 

If inflation is high, He says it's under control, and within the norms.

If jobs are down, " "

 

 

Greenspan is the political monkey wrench that presidents use to get thier agendas passed.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

It's Greenspan's job to enstill confidence in the economy. He says the same thing 8 times a year.

 

If inflation is high, He says it's under control, and within the norms.

If jobs are down,      "                                      "

 

 

Greenspan is the political monkey wrench that presidents use to get thier agendas passed.

Political monkey? That man has forgot more about macroeconomics in 5 seconds than you will ever know in your lifetime. I tend to trust his opinion more.

[southsider2k5]

It's Greenspan's job to enstill confidence in the economy. He says the same thing 8 times a year.

 

If inflation is high, He says it's under control, and within the norms.

If jobs are down,      "                                      "

 

 

Greenspan is the political monkey wrench that presidents use to get thier agendas passed.

Don't kid yourself with that Howard Dean-speak. Greenspan isn't politically motivated. The Bush's hated him for a long time for what they believed was his inaction that prolonged the 90-91 recession. Greenspan has also been a vocal opponent of the spending habits of this particular congress, which is republican dominated. He also was very clear on supporting the tax cuts only with the contingency that spending be accordingly cut.

 

And that is off the top of my head. I know the guy is no ones puppet.

[Gene Honda Civic]

Political monkey?  That man has forgot more about macroeconomics in 5 seconds than you will ever know in your lifetime.  I tend to trust his opinion more.

Nuke, I'm not discouting a word he said...

 

I'm saying the man backs up presedential agenda no matter of party line. That makes him a political tool.

 

For that reason you should take all of his comments with a grain of salt. Whether there be Democrat or republican in office.

 

He's the Most Powerful man in the US, when it comes to the economy. Saying anything bad about the Economy, or in fighting with a presidential agenda, would ultimately, damage the economy and cost jobs, Including his own.

[southsider2k5]

Nuke, I'm not discouting a word he said...

 

I'm saying the man backs up presedential agenda no matter of party line.  That makes him a political tool.

 

For that reason you should take all of his comments with a grain of salt.  Whether there be Democrat or republican in office.

 

He's the Most Powerful man in the US, when it comes to the economy.  Saying anything bad about the Economy, or in fighting with a presidential agenda, would ultimately, damage the economy and cost jobs, Including his own.

Umm I am sure that you remember "irrational exuberance" don't you? He trashed the overvaluations of the stock markets repeatedly as the tech bubble grew out of control in 99-00. He has made plenty of public statements over the years that disagreed with important tenants of Presidental platforms.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Nuke, I'm not discouting a word he said...

 

I'm saying the man backs up presedential agenda no matter of party line.  That makes him a political tool.

 

For that reason you should take all of his comments with a grain of salt.  Whether there be Democrat or republican in office.

 

He's the Most Powerful man in the US, when it comes to the economy.  Saying anything bad about the Economy, or in fighting with a presidential agenda, would ultimately, damage the economy and cost jobs, Including his own.

I'm confused. First you say you are not discounting his word yet in the next sentence you say he just rattles off the party line and we should take what he says with a grain of salt.

[NUKE_CLEVELAND]

Umm I am sure that you remember "irrational exuberance" don't you?  He trashed the overvaluations of the stock markets repeatedly as the tech bubble grew out of control in 99-00.  He has made plenty of public statements over the years that disagreed with important tenants of Presidental platforms.

He was defenitely vindicated when the bubble burst and several TRILLION dollars of paper wealth were wiped out. This man knows his stuff and should be listened to.