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Vegas Odds for Team Wins


kane0730

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You explain to me how/where the cubs have "the goods"!

 

Their catching sucks.

Their first baseman is great.

They are weak at 2B.

They are weak at SS.

Their 3B can't play defense.

Their LF is not durable, can't last the entire season.

Their CF is coming off of a major injury...definie question mark!

Their RF...a "one-tool player".

 

Team defense is awful.

 

Team will strikeout 1300-1400 times.

 

No team speed.

 

Dusty is an idiot!

 

No leadoff hitter.

 

Great starters, above-average bullpen. THAT'S IT!

 

If you can dispute these elements, please try to do so!

Well you have to start with arguable the best rotation in baseball. Look at the Dodgers last year. They had the worst offense in baseball with a so-so defense, yet they still won 85 games because of their pitching and I would argue that the Cubs have a better pitching staff than the Dodgers(not to mention an offense that is 10x better).

 

Their offense is also one of the best in NL(maybe baseball). Here is a comparison of the Sox 3-6 hitters(Thomas, Maggs, Konerko, and Valentin) versus the Cubs 3-6 hitters(Lee, Sosa, Alou, Ramirez)

 

Sox - 2099 AB 310 R 561 H 126 2B 117 HR 343 RBI 254 BB 352 SO .267 BA .437 SLG .350 OBP .787 OPS

Cubs - 2228 AB 348 R 613 H 120 2B 120 HR 392 RBI 255 BB 440 SO .275 BA .496 SLG .354 OBP .850 OPS

 

The Cubs 3-6 is SIGNIFICANTLY better based on last years stats. You have to assume that Konerko will be better, but even if Konerko gets close to his career averages that alone won't make up the .063 difference in OPS. The fact is that the Cubs have one of the best 3-6 hitters in the game. The combination of the best staff in baseball and one of the best middle of the orders in baseball is a deadly combination. Few people understand how good DLee really is. I would argue that he was the best pickup this offseason(I am not forgeting ARod).

 

Their defense isn't as bad as you make it out to be.

 

- Barrett is an above average defensive catcher.

- DLee is a GG 1B.

- Grudzielanek/Walker are both below average, but not terrible defensively.

- Gonzalez is a GG calibur defensive SS.

- Ramirez is below average at 3B.

- Alou is decent in LF.

- Paterson is above average in CF.

- Sosa is terrible in RF.

 

There defense isn't among the best in baseball, but it is around the league average with an even mixture of above average and below average defensive players. Furthermore, the Cubs defense is probably the least used in baseball. Their rotation had the most strikeouts in the majors BY FAR(Cubs -1404 and the 2nd highest - 1291), so even if they had a weak defense it isn't a significant problem.

 

Average bullpen? If they have an average bullpen, than I would love to see what you think a great bullpen is? Like the Cubs defense(not being as important when compared to other teams), the Cubs bullpen is similar considering that all 5 of the Cubs starters threw for over 200 IP last year(a pretty impressive stat). That means their bullpen will be used less than most teams, however, I would ask you to find me a better 1-4 bullpen than the Cubs(Hawkins, Borowski, Farnsworth, and Remlinger). These 4 combined to put up the following stats:

 

291 IP 229 H 26 HR 109 BB 316 SO 2.85 ERA

 

Those are some pretty impressive stats if you ask me. Only 229 hits against in 291 IP, more SO(316) than IP(291), and a very impressive ERA(2.85). Like I said, I would like you to show me a better 1-4 bullpen than the Cubs. The fact is that the Cubs have one of the better pens in baseball to go with their great rotation.

 

Team speed and strikeouts are overrated stats in todays game. The fact is that the Cubs dangerous 3-6 hitters will provide plenty of offense to offset the lack of speed and high strikeout totals. Their top of the order should be pretty solid with Patterson healthy and Grudzielanek, and if Grudzielanek struggles they have Todd Walker who is very good offensively and was one of the better bargains this offseason(I wish the Sox weren't so cheap and would have given him 1.5M to play 2B for them).

 

The fact is that the Cubs won 88 games last year, and they drasticly improved their team. Having Maddux as their 5th starter instead of Estes/Cruz is a drastic improvement. Having DLee instead of Karros/Choi is a drastic improvement. Having Ramirez for a full season is a drastic improvement over the revolving door that they had before he arrived. Having Hawkins in the pen is an improvement over guys like Guthrie/Alfonseca/Veres. They also improved their bench with the additions of Hollandsworth and Walker. Its clear that this team is probably the best team in the NL. You can continue to ignore this with your Cub hatred that blinds you from reality. If you are foolish enough to bet that the Cubs won't win more than 84 games, than I will be happy to take your money. A fool and his gold are easily seperated.

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You explain to me how/where the cubs have "the goods"!

 

Their catching sucks.

Their first baseman is great.

They are weak at 2B.

They are weak at SS.

Their 3B can't play defense.

Their LF is not durable, can't last the entire season.

Their CF is coming off of a major injury...definie question mark!

Their RF...a "one-tool player".

 

Team defense is awful.

 

Team will strikeout 1300-1400 times.

 

No team speed.

 

Dusty is an idiot!

 

No leadoff hitter.

 

Great starters, above-average bullpen. THAT'S IT!

 

If you can dispute these elements, please try to do so!

If you think the Cubs are good for 80-85 wins with that team, what do you think the Sox are good for 65-70 wins?

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I will be in Las Vegas in 3 weeks on spring break. I have a $50 bill sitting in my wallet, and I will take that to the sportsbook that gives me the best odds of the Sox winning the division. I will also place a bet that the Sox make the ALCS.

 

If I lose, it's not so bad, since I lose in Vegas every time I go there anyways.

 

Well, not EVERY time. I did win $700 at the Mirage BlackJack table in 2002, but I digress.

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