Koch will close

[witesoxfan]

Lest we forget,  Uncle Tom blew 5 saves in 14 attempts for us last year.  Puts things in perspective.

Brando, you're killing me.

 

Damaso Marte also blew 7 saves(11 for 18), while not even closing most of the time. He also was 4-2 1.58 ERA 1.05 WHIP 2.18 K-BB ratio(which seems a tish low and is a slight cause of concern, considering it was 3.60 in 2002, but nothing I'm panicking about). At times, SV% and, moreso then even SV%, blown saves, can be misleading. If a guy has been a setup guy at some point in any season(which Gordon was with us for April and May), he will have blown saves that are not actually blown saves but to be stated more correctly, blown holds.

 

For the record, 4 of Gordon's 5 blown saves came when he was a setup man(he was 0 for 4 in SVO in April and May, his main 2 months as a setup man). In June, July, August, and September, he was 12 of 13, which is a 92.3% save conversion rate. That's also not bad.

 

I never liked Billy Goat's ERA, but he was always a pretty good reliever before 2003, a ballsy dude -- he would make you sweat it out by stranding a GW run at 2nd in quite a few 1-run saves.   A 96-100 mph heater helped.    

 

And in 2003, his 96-100 MPH fastball lost 5 MPH, and in turn, led to a 5.77 ERA, as well as being embarrassed by Carl f***ing Crawford in Tampa Bay. I know for a fact that 40% of Crawford's homers from 2003 were of the walk-off variety, and that number may be larger too. Then again, he only hit 5 homers all year.

 

Anyways, I always thought Koch was tough as nails, and he could hurt you. However, I started to dislike him when he blew it for the A's in the 2002 ALDS by giving up that 3-run homer to AJ Pierzynski in the top of the 9th of game 5. That pretty much sealed the team with the score being 5-1 at the time, and then knowing that Mark Ellis would hit a 3-run homer in the top of the 9th, only to go home and watch Anaheim completely destroy Minnesota in the ALCS hurt me a little bit, and made me dislike Koch a little more.

 

And then we traded for him.

 

What will he do now?

 

Well, if he doesn't have his high-heater to work with, let's hope he retires until he remembers where he had it last. If he does have it, girls will probably be yelling, "Koch, I wanna suck your ________" at the ballpark this year(fill in the blank, it's a madlib).

[BrandoFan]

For the record, 4 of Gordon's 5 blown saves came when he was a setup man(he was 0 for 4 in SVO in April and May, his main 2 months as a setup man). In June, July, August, and September, he was 12 of 13, which is a 92.3% save conversion rate. That's also not bad.

 

I didn't know games in June-September counted more than games in April and May.

 

Nobody would accuse Damaso of being great under pressure. That's why I never put him in the Gagne/Rivera category.

 

We won't miss Uncle Tom nearly as much as we think we will.

[BrandoFan]

If he does have it, girls will probably be yelling, "Koch, I wanna suck your ________" at the ballpark this year

 

I think a girl's gotta be 21 to be able to shout that.

[WillieHarris2]

I think a girl's gotta be 21 to be able to shout that.

lol or should it be 18 cuz thats when ur a legal adult

[Queen Prawn]

lol or should it be 18 cuz thats when ur a legal adult

Let me tell ya from experience, being a legal adult is no fun. Maybe I need to try being an illegal adult for more fun. lol

[WillieHarris2]

well if not being an adult is more fun the being one i better enjoy myself for a little while longer.

[witesoxfan]

I didn't know games in June-September counted more than games in April and May.

 

Nobody would accuse Damaso of being great under pressure. That's why I never put him in the Gagne/Rivera category. 

 

We won't miss Uncle Tom nearly as much as we think we will.

I'm not saying that at all.

 

All I'm saying is that as a closer, Gordon did not blow 5 saves. He blew 4 of those saves as a setup man, so really, they could be considered blown holds, but they do not have a statistical category for blown holds, just blown saves.

 

And with my Marte point, all I was suggesting is that just because a setup man blows 5+ saves, it does not mean that he was not very good, because Marte was very good. With setup men, blown saves are overrated, because the offense still has atleast another chance to come back and get the win, while with closers, this is a lot of times not the case.

 

Another thing, I do agree we won't miss Gordon....in fact, I personally think he could end up on the DL within a month....however, I'm more worried about replacing his production, especially from June-September when he was actually pitching well(I don't think he got his ERA down into the 3.00's until late May, and I know he started out April very s***tily). We'll have to get his numbers from somewhere, and whether that be Politte, Shingo, Koch, Wright, or all of the above(or none of the above), I really don't care. It needs to be replaced somehow though.

However, like I have said before, I'm very glad we did not resign Gordon, especially for the money he got.

 

BTW, about the little fill-in-the-blank thing...I think the age limit was probably common sense...I don't know too many 10 year olds yelling that, let alone most 15-18 year olds.

[BrandoFan]

With setup men, blown saves are overrated, because the offense still has atleast another chance to come back and get the win, while with closers, this is a lot of times not the case.

 

Sorry, can't let Gordon off the hook.

 

There is clutch hitting (and some of it unquestionably has to do with luck) and there is clutch relief pitching -- give up 6 ER with an 7-run lead, but 1-2-3 them with a 1-run lead..

 

I mean, Marte? His ERA is excellent enough that I can overlook blown slaves (Chip Carey, I am look at you, lol).

 

But You gotta penalize Uncle Tom at some point for the 5 blown saves.

 

You say 8th inning.....have you checked out how many times a team comes back after trailing at the end of 8th inning? Not often.

 

Gordon, White, Koch and Marte were blowing games left and right early in the season and as you know we could never really recover from that. Marte I can forgive, but the other 3 have some 'splaining to do.

 

Besides....Marte close quite a few games last season -- as in 2002, it was by commiitee fo most of the year. I don't believe in characterizing them as set-up men/closerts. But even if you insist I do so, fine....look at other "good" set-up men in the game and tell me how many of them have 5-8 blown saves. Compare their blown (house)HOLDS if you must. I am curious where Sox pitchers would stack up.

 

I am not saying Marte wasn't very good - he was. But he comparing him to Gagne and Rivera would not be right IMO. And Gordon? Because of his blown slaves, his impressive 3.20 ERA is closer to 4.00 if you classify "clutch" ER given up as more "important" than non-clutch.

[WillieHarris2]

I'm not sayin Tom is to blame for us not making the playoffs but think about what 5 more games in the win column would have done for us. Makes more of a difference then most think.

[whitesoxfan99]

Sorry, can't let Gordon off the hook.   

 

There is clutch hitting (and some of it unquestionably has to do with luck) and there is clutch relief pitching -- give up 6 ER with an 7-run lead, but 1-2-3 them with a 1-run lead..

 

I mean, Marte? His ERA is excellent enough that I can overlook blown slaves (Chip Carey, I am look at you, lol).

 

But You gotta penalize Uncle Tom at some point for the 5 blown saves.

 

You say 8th inning.....have you checked out how many times a team comes back after trailing at the end of 8th inning?  Not often.

 

Gordon, White, Koch and Marte were blowing games left and right early in the season and as you know we could never really recover from that.    Marte I can forgive, but the other 3 have some 'splaining to do.

 

Besides....Marte close quite a few games last season -- as in 2002, it was by commiitee fo most of the year.  I don't believe in characterizing them as set-up men/closerts.    But even if you insist I do so, fine....look at other "good" set-up men in the game and tell me how many of them have 5-8 blown saves. Compare their blown (house)HOLDS if you must. I am curious where Sox pitchers would stack up.

 

I am not saying Marte wasn't very good - he was.  But he comparing him to Gagne and Rivera would not be right IMO.  And Gordon?  Because of his blown slaves, his impressive 3.20 ERA is closer to 4.00 if you classify "clutch" ER given up as more "important" than non-clutch.

You forget that setup men also have to deal with inherited runners scoring too. If the come in with the bases loaded and nobody out in a one run game and they only allow the tying run that still goes down as a blown save. Thats something most closers very rarely if ever deal with.

[witesoxfan]

You say 8th inning.....have you checked out how many times a team comes back after trailing at the end of 8th inning? Not often.

I believe that would also work in the 7th inning as well. IIRC, you can get holds in the 7th and 8th, and can (obviously) get a save in the 9th and if you are the visiting team, you can also get a save in extra innings.

 

And as I believe I pointed out very briefly, but wsf99 also brings up is inherited runners. They have a 1-run lead, come in with the bases loaded, give up 1 run and get out of the inning and they have done their job(atleast I feel they have done their job)....they got out of the inning without letting things get out of control. However, this is also a blown save, when really this pitcher should be credited with getting out of the inning and should be praised. JMO

 

Gordon, White, Koch and Marte were blowing games left and right early in the season and as you know we could never really recover from that.    Marte I can forgive, but the other 3 have some 'splaining to do.

 

To me, you are contradicting yourself in letting Marte go while including Gordon in the group with explaining to do. As I pointed out, Gordon was not closing until June and on, and 4 of his 5 blown saves came in the first two months, and while that's not good, he didn't do it while closer, and to me, that's the big thing. He blows 5 saves as a closer out of 17 and he is doing a very s***ty job, which is exactly why Koch's season last year was so bad.

 

 

BTW, just so you know, from June-Sep, Gordon's 4 months as closer, he went 5-2 2.94 ERA in 49 innings with a 1.16 WHIP, a K-BB ratio of 3.35, and a K-BB+H(walks and hits combined) of exactly 1(57 strikeouts, 57 walks and hits combined in those last 4 months), as well as about 10.5 K/9, as well as the commonly seen 12 of 13 in save chances(which as said before is 92.3%). That's just to throw a few numbers at you to prove that he was actually quite good down the stretch when closing.

 

Koch's explanation/excuse is probably something about how he lost a MPH or two early on because he gave up a homer, got whiplash, and then lost 5-10 MPH because of the whiplash. Something like that. Or maybe it was the evil lawn gnomes or gargoyles or whatever the hell they were that were in his house...or maybe it is a torn labrum/f***ed up elbow and he'll need some surgery and will be gone for the year.

 

White's explanation is that he sucks ass.

 

But even if you insist I do so, fine....look at other "good" set-up men in the game and tell me how many of them have 5-8 blown saves. Compare their blown (house)HOLDS if you must.

 

LaTroy Hawkins, now with the Cubs, last year with the Twins, went 2 for 8 in save opportunities used primarily as a setup guy. He also went 9-3 with a 1.86 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09. Arthur Rhodes, in his worst statistical year since 2000, had only 3 blown saves this year but also went 3-3 with a 4.17 ERA and a WHIP of 1.31. In 2002, probably his second best year, he went 10-4 with a 2.33 ERA with a WHIP of 0.83, but blew 5 saves(2 of 7). In 01, he went 8-0 with a 1.72 ERA with a WHIP of 0.85, but blew 4 saves(3 of 7). In 00, he blew all 7 save opportunities that were presented to him(yes, 0 for 7 in save opportunities). Paul Quantrill blew 4(1 of 5) saves this past year, going 2-5 1.75 WHIP of 0.98. Felix Rodriguez only blew 1(2 of 3) save this past year, but blew 6(0 for 6) in 02, and blew 3(0 for 3) in 01 along with 5(3 for 8) in 00. K-Rod for Anaheim blew 4(2 of 6) saves this year. All are pretty good setup men.

 

There are probably others I did not cover who also blew saves, but there are some who did not blow very many "saves"(Octavio Dotel, quite possibly the best in the MLB as a setup guy, went something like 4 for 6 this year in saves, and went 6 of 10 in 02...that will all change as he will almost undoubtedly close now for Houston with Wagner gone to Philly). In general, I would say that using save opportunities for guys who have been setup guys is not the best way to judge them. Closers, yes, but not really setup guys. It can be misleading at times.

 

I am not saying Marte wasn't very good - he was.  But he comparing him to Gagne and Rivera would not be right IMO.  And Gordon?  Because of his blown slaves, his impressive 3.20 ERA is closer to 4.00 if you classify "clutch" ER given up as more "important" than non-clutch.

 

No question about it. Rivera and Gagne are the elite relievers in the game right now, and Wagner is the elite lefty. Right now, as far as how good they are or how they stack up at the moment, the only one of our pitchers you can compare to Gagne is Koch, and that is for monetary reasons alone(the fact that Koch will make $6 mill this year and Gagne will make $5 mill is obsurd, as has been pointed out several times on this board). Otherwise, there are no comparisons whatsoever(however, people are hoping Danny Wright can pull an Eric Gagne and go from a mediocre to bad starter into a good to great to elite reliever, but that has not happened yet, and in what I have said, I'm talking strictly about what has happened or what will happen for a fact, and for a fact, Koch will make more then Gagne this year)

 

And all I gotta say about Gordon is up above.

[baggio202]

You forget that setup men also have to deal with inherited runners scoring too.  If the come in with the bases loaded and nobody out in a one run game and they only allow the tying run that still goes down as a blown save.  Thats something most closers very rarely if ever deal with.

good point...set up man often face tougher situations than closers....closer always start the inning so any mess they cause is their own making...not the case with set up men

[BrandoFan]

I believe that would also work in the 7th inning as well.  IIRC, you can get holds in the 7th and 8th, and can (obviously) get a save in the 9th and if you are the visiting team, you can also get a save in extra innings. 

 

And as I believe I pointed out very briefly, but wsf99 also brings up is inherited runners.  They have a 1-run lead, come in with the bases loaded, give up 1 run and get out of the inning and they have done their job(atleast I feel they have done their job)....they got out of the inning without letting things get out of control.  However, this is also a blown save, when really this pitcher should be credited with getting out of the inning and should be praised.  JMO

 

 

 

To me, you are contradicting yourself in letting Marte go while including Gordon in the group with explaining to do.  As I pointed out, Gordon was not closing until June and on, and 4 of his 5 blown saves came in the first two months, and while that's not good, he didn't do it while closer, and to me, that's the big thing.  He blows 5 saves as a closer out of 17 and he is doing a very s***ty job, which is exactly why Koch's season last year was so bad. 

 

 

BTW, just so you know, from June-Sep, Gordon's 4 months as closer, he went 5-2 2.94 ERA in 49 innings with a 1.16 WHIP, a K-BB ratio of 3.35, and a K-BB+H(walks and hits combined) of exactly 1(57 strikeouts, 57 walks and hits combined in those last 4 months), as well as about 10.5 K/9, as well as the commonly seen 12 of 13 in save chances(which as said before is 92.3%).  That's just to throw a few numbers at you to prove that he was actually quite good down the stretch when closing. 

 

Koch's explanation/excuse is probably something about how he lost a MPH or two early on because he gave up a homer, got whiplash, and then lost 5-10 MPH because of the whiplash.  Something like that.  Or maybe it was the evil lawn gnomes or gargoyles or whatever the hell they were that were in his house...or maybe it is a torn labrum/f***ed up elbow and he'll need some surgery and will be gone for the year.

 

White's explanation is that he sucks ass.

 

 

 

LaTroy Hawkins, now with the Cubs, last year with the Twins, went 2 for 8 in save opportunities used primarily as a setup guy.  He also went 9-3 with a 1.86 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09.  Arthur Rhodes, in his worst statistical year since 2000, had only 3 blown saves this year but also went 3-3 with a 4.17 ERA and a WHIP of 1.31.  In 2002, probably his second best year, he went 10-4 with a 2.33 ERA with a WHIP of 0.83, but blew 5 saves(2 of 7).  In 01, he went 8-0 with a 1.72 ERA with a WHIP of 0.85, but blew 4 saves(3 of 7).  In 00, he blew all 7 save opportunities that were presented to him(yes, 0 for 7 in save opportunities).  Paul Quantrill blew 4(1 of 5) saves this past year, going 2-5 1.75 WHIP of 0.98. Felix Rodriguez only blew 1(2 of 3) save this past year, but blew 6(0 for 6) in 02, and blew 3(0 for 3) in 01 along with 5(3 for 8) in 00.  K-Rod for Anaheim blew 4(2 of 6) saves this year.  All are pretty good setup men. 

 

There are probably others I did not cover who also blew saves, but there are some who did not blow very many "saves"(Octavio Dotel, quite possibly the best in the MLB as a setup guy, went something like 4 for 6 this year in saves, and went 6 of 10 in 02...that will all change as he will almost undoubtedly close now for Houston with Wagner gone to Philly).  In general, I would say that using save opportunities for guys who have been setup guys is not the best way to judge them.  Closers, yes, but not really setup guys.  It can be misleading at times.

 

No question about it.  Rivera and Gagne are the elite relievers in the game right now, and Wagner is the elite lefty. Right now, as far as how good they are or how they stack up at the moment, the only one of our pitchers you can compare to Gagne is Koch, and that is for monetary reasons alone(the fact that Koch will make $6 mill this year and Gagne will make $5 mill is obsurd, as has been pointed out several times on this board).  Otherwise, there are no comparisons whatsoever(however, people are hoping Danny Wright can pull an Eric Gagne and go from a mediocre to bad starter into a good to great to elite reliever, but that has not happened yet, and in what I have said, I'm talking strictly about what has happened or what will happen for a fact, and for a fact, Koch will make more then Gagne this year)

 

And all I gotta say about Gordon is up above.

A lead is a lead is a lead. For a closer, for a set-up man, it doesn't matter.

 

Closers come in with bases loaded too. Often.

 

Teams do not come back after trailing after 8th inning as often as some think. So when Tom Gordon gives up a 2-run double in the 8th to put our opponent up by a run, the way we hit last yeat when it mattered, you might have as well ended those games after 8th.

 

Marte was good in 2002 in dividing himself between set-up/closer duties. Only 2 blown saves. His ERA was much higher, but he "made up for it" by getting the job DONE when it mattered most.

 

And I let Marte off the hook because his overall ERA in was 2003 simply too good. I wouldn't put him in Gagne, Smotz or Rivewra's league because of this BS business -- consider the excellent overall numbers a mitigating circumstance if you will. With Gordon, 3.20 ERA while way above average is not that great for a reliever, and given how many times he blew a close games (5 in 14), I don't think he was nearly as good as advertised. Good, but replaceable.

 

But see, that's the thing: Gordon was awful as a set-up man, so his greatness as a closer gets diluted. Had he not done so much damage early on, I wouldn't say he was overrated last year. But he HAD blown game after game in April and May and you can't change that. Glossing that over is like ignoring a hitter's lack of clutch hitting in the first two months from a 5th spot and only concentrating on his good clutch hitting the rest of the year from the 3rd spot in the line-up.

 

Can it be misleading? Yes. Is blowing 8 saves in 17 attempts "good" for anyone? Not even close. If you want to use blown holds AND blown saves, fine....but ignoring how a pitcher peforms with game on the line (2 run lead or less or a tie game or even a 1-run deficit in some cases) is not wise. Similarly, avg. with RISP can be misleading as hell, but totally ignoring it is not right, either.

 

Somewhat OT: do we realize that 1 of Konerko, Koch, Wright and White having a "typical" year would have probably meant a ALC crown last year? Just a couple of game swing that results from added produciton and we probably hold on to the lead till the end. Which makes you wonder: just WHICH one of the current "role" players (Shingo, Show, Rauch, Wright, Uribe, Rowand) will decide our fate in a close pennant race, one way or another, in this upcoming season

 

 

Even more OT: the BLOWN SLAVES reference was to Chip Caray messing up in the heat of passion a few years ago. Absolutely priceless.

[baggio202]

Somewhat OT: do we realize that 1 of Konerko, Koch, Wright and White having a "typical" year would have probably meant a ALC crown last year? Just a couple of game swing that results from added produciton and we probably hold on to the lead till the end.

you make a good point here..and it makes you wonder about management...3 of the 4 who are responsible for the teams demise by your theory are still on the team...if this is the case wouldnt it have made sense to make more of an effort to keep last years team in tact????...pretty much all we would need was the same production out of most of the guys from last year (loiaza was the only one who would have to repeat a career year) and then only 1 of the remaining 3 (wright , koch , konerko) would have to bounce back from a sub par year to put us back in the diver's seat...seems like that one question mark between those 3 guys would be a much safer bet then all the question marks we now have going into this season...

[YASNY]

Brando, I think you are being a little closed minded on this blown save issue. Set up men are going to be put into more difficult situations than a closer would. Closers are "protected" by the fact that usually come in and pitch a complete 9th inning and get their save. Set up guys come in, usually with runners on base, and if the give up the lead it's called a BS. If they hold the lead, then the closer comes in and gets the save so the setup guy will not get credit for a save opportunity. Therefore, a setup guy's blown save percentage is almost certainly going to be higher than a closer's.

[Pastime]

Named Koch the closer?????? What was the point of this.

 

Maybe Ozzie is trying to inject a vote of confidence into Koch's already shaky mindset by saying that. In other words, relax, Billy - the job is yours.

 

I heard something on Chicago sports radio Monday evening from George Offman of the Score 670AM - so take it for what it's worth. He said that from what he observed Monday afternoon watching a pitching session, Koch was hitting anywhere from 94-96 on the radar gun.

 

That's lower than the velocity of his "best years," but higher than his velocity of last year. Hopefully, if Offman's report is true, Koch will continue to stretch and condition his arm in Spring Training, and will be popping near or at triple-digits on the radar gun come April. Will he or won't he? I don't know - who does?