BA on Reed and Honel

[False Alarm]

FWIW, excerpts on reed and honel from a BA chat about their top 100 list:

 

--Reed--

WLingo:

i think jeremy reed could be similar. will he do what he did in 2003 every year?

 

JCallis:

I say no on Jeremy Reed.

 

JCallis:

I like the guy, respect his hitting ability, but that .400 average in Double-A is going to get him overrated temporarily.

 

JCallis:

We still don't know if he's a long-term CF, if he's going to hit more than 15 HR, if he can steal bases at a productive rate.

 

WLingo:

me too. and i thought i would have him lower than anyone else and had him highest. i hate it when that happens!

 

JManuel:

His track record with the bat has been very steady, though. His offensive potential was depressed at Long Beach State.

 

JBoyd:

I agree with Jim on Greinke--but Greinke is so smart on the mound and he has the arm strength to throw 95, I thought he was one of the toughest guys to rank accurately.

 

JManuel:

Masked by a big ballpark.

 

JCallis:

And I'll bet he doesn't hit .373 every year.

 

JManuel:

No, he won't. Your point is a good one, he'll be temporarily overrated.

 

JBoyd:

Good bet.

 

JCallis:

One thing that gets me a little, and again, I'm nitpicking Greinke here, is that I like top pitching prospects to miss bats. And Greinke missed a good number, but not a ton.

 

JBoyd:

It's interesting how Reed when from underrated to overrated.

 

 

--Honel--

WLingo:

here's a guy john and josh can argue about: kris honel. ranked 50+ spots apart

 

JCallis:

I don't know what to make of Guthrie, and I think I ranked him lower than everyone at No. 81.

 

JManuel:

Honel and Macay McBride (who didn't make the list) I did the same thing:

 

JManuel:

they've shown less velo than in HS, but they've learned to pitch without the velo.

 

JManuel:

if it comes back (and I guess what I have read made me think it can) they'll be that much better for it

 

JBoyd:

Good point John, and both have outstanding breaking balls.

 

JCallis:

Honel's frame would indicate that he should add velocity, too. He's five inches taller than McBride, who is a lefty. And of course, you don't have to be tall to be good.

 

JBoyd:

I may have been light on them, but I think McBride ends up in the pen, where he can be really effective and I think neither is more than a No. 3 starter

 

JCallis:

And that brings up a good point, actually two.

 

JManuel:

McBride's delivery is the key to his velo; if he stays high in his delivery he's 90-93, and I think he'll be a very solid starter in Atlanta.

 

JCallis:

1. When we call someone a No. 3 starter, that doesn't mean we don't like him. A good No. 3 starter is a pretty good big leaguer.

 

JManuel:

Excellent point

 

JBoyd:

oh, man, I get so many e-mails telling me I'm a hater when i call someone a no. 3 starter

 

JCallis:

2. The Top 100 isn't 100 superstars or 100 all-stars. When you get into the 40s, we're essentially tabbing guys who most likely will have long careers but not be great.