Puts things into perspective

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Spring stats don't tell whole picture

 

Spring stats don't tell whole picture

Success or failure in March lies outside the numbers

By Scott Merkin / MLB.com

 

TUSCON, Ariz. -- The next time Frank Thomas picks up a stats' sheet and looks at his Cactus League batting average will be ...

Well, it will be the first time Thomas has looked at his Spring Training batting average in a very long time. For the 15-year veteran, three or four hits on any given day aren't always as important as a long fly ball to the opposition's left fielder, with the proper swing in tact.

 

"I judge myself by how hard I hit the ball," said Thomas, who entered Tuesday hitting .310 with one home run and five RBIs in 29 at-bats. "If I hit a line drive once per day, I'm very happy. You need to get your work in and do it right. You need to get quality at-bats and not get caught up in trying to get too many hits.

 

"Our core hitters hit .400 last year here (in Arizona). During the first two months of the season, we were all in a slump. Hits here don't mean much."

 

There's an age-old question as to how important gaudy spring numbers, ranging from batting averages hovering around .400 to ERA's just below 2.00, really mean to a player's overall chance for regular season success. For a player such as Thomas or Paul Konerko or Magglio Ordonez, hitting .150 or .450 in Arizona really doesn't matter.

 

They not only have a spot on the roster secured but also figure prominently in the team's everyday lineup. For someone like Kelly Dransfeldt, scrapping in every at-bat and every appearance in the field to earn the team's final roster spot, work ethic remains crucial but getting a few hits won't hurt his cause either.

 

It's tough to judge when those hits come, though. Are those doubles in the gap and triples down the line produced against opposing pitchers who could be in a Major League starting rotation or against young hurlers who will begin the year in a small minor league town in North Carolina? The Arizona heat also slightly skews averages, with routine fly balls clearing short fences from Tucson to Surprise.

 

"I'll tell you what. I've seen some whacky Spring Training numbers," said Thomas with a laugh. "Guys hit .400 or .450 and then don't get a hit during the regular season until May.

 

"It's great to get off to a solid start, especially if you are trying to impress people and make the team. But it doesn't have much benefit for a veteran. If you hit the ball hard but line out, be happy because you accomplished something."

 

The White Sox are run by a general manager in Ken Williams who is not a numbers guy. He began in the organization as a scout and has worked extensively in player evaluation.

 

With a relatively fixed budget, Williams has mentioned on a number of occasions that he relies on old-fashioned Scouting 101 to find players.

 

It was that process which brought right-handed pitcher Esteban Loaiza to the White Sox as a non-roster invitee in 2003. It also added outfielder/infielder Ross Gload, a career minor leaguer with minimal Major League time who has worked his way toward a spot on the 25-man active roster during the current Spring Training. Actually, Gload has hit since the first day the team signed him to a minor league deal last season.

 

Williams is all for the White Sox trying to win every game during their Cactus League schedule. A young Kansas City Royals squad posted the top 2003 record in Arizona and carried that momentum and confidence into a three-game sweep of the White Sox to start the season. The Royals quickly became an American League contender and carried that success right down to the final weeks of September.

 

But Williams would rather have young standouts such as Ryan Sweeney, Brian Anderson or Pedro Lopez gain valuable playing time, sometimes at the expense of winning seven or eight in a row during Cactus League action. His philosophy is much like the one Thomas espouses in that lofty spring numbers are far from the lone indicators of success.

 

"I don't take much stock in wins and losses here," said Williams, whose team stood at 8-11 before playing Arizona on Tuesday but had lost six or seven during the final three innings with minor leaguers in the game. "As far as averages, I can't tell you who is hitting what. It's the furthest thing from my mind.

 

"On a day-to-day basis, I can recap every at-bat everyone has had in my head, as to how they approach the at-bats and what the result was in terms of hard-hit balls and contact. For instance, Willie (Harris) has had a number of quality at-bats where he's seen seven or eight pitches and then made an out. I'm OK with that. He can be 1-for-10 all he wants, as long as he gets better prepared for the season.

 

"I'm just not a numbers guy, maybe looking at them two or three times per year," Williams added. "I look at other clubs' numbers more than our own guys."

 

For the record, Willie Harris is hitting .235 over 34 at-bats this spring. Juan Uribe, his main competition at second, has slipped recently to .222 but has three home runs and six extra-base hits. The right-handed hitting Uribe could end up at second during the first two games in Kansas City against left-handed starters, after Harris was given the everyday job at the start of spring. But it's manager Ozzie Guillen's gut feeling, more than Uribe's production, which could put Uribe on the field.

 

Konerko hit .407 during 59 Cactus League at-bats in 2003, with four home runs and 11 RBI. He hit .238 in April to start the regular season and .181 in May. Konerko's troubles were linked more to mechanical problems with his swing, since altered with the help of hitting coach Greg Walker and leading to a strong second half of 2003 for the White Sox first baseman.

 

Currently, Konerko is hitting .300 in 40 spring at-bats. It really doesn't predict success or failure for the upcoming year. It just shows he's getting some all-important work, while finding his comfort zone and timing.

 

"You have so few at-bats that when you hit in a little tough luck, that average can be misleading," Walker explained of Spring Training numbers. " I would rather guys build their confidence and focus on their mechanics and approach.

 

"We hit a little dead period offensively recently, with about three weeks to go in Spring Training. But when we see the light at the end of the tunnel coming from the start of the regular season, we will all be ready. It's where we are when we leave that's really important."

Scott Merkin is a reporter for MLB.