How's the economy doing?

[KipWellsFan]

This is a pretty broad question but I'm interested in knowing how your economy is doing going into the election?

[1549]

This is a pretty broad question but I'm interested in knowing how your economy is doing going into the election?

It has good weeks and bad weeks, but the general trend is good.

 

It is still not as strong as it was in the late 90's, but it is considerably strong.

 

Unemployment seems to be the one stagnant statistic, but it is coming around.

 

To sum it up: It is strong, but not strong enough to guarrantee Bush a second term.

[southsider2k5]

I have a few theories about this since you asked. We are in the midst of a jobless recovery. Companies are pushing their exsisting employees harder because of the costs of hiring people. Remember it isn't just a salary that gets paid, but the average worker makes costs more than his salary in benefits and insurances, on top of his salary. (maybe kapkomet can give you a little more real world numbers there). I also think it is because most of the economy is stagnent, which leads me to my next conclusion.

 

The majority of the recovery is based on the increased spending from the military and security complex. Think of all of the extra spending in those areas. "Defense" spending is about about 50% since 2001.

 

Inflation is on the horizion, poised to breakout later this fall to winter. Many, many commodities are at long term highs. For example- Gas all time real dollar high. Soybeans 15 year high. Gold 20 year highs. Crude Oil 10 year highs. Steel 30 year high. Need I go on?

 

So in whole, the economy is OK. Jobs are basically flat. It should be recovering enough to send a signal to the rest of the economy to send the illusion of full recovery, which would kick it into a real recovery.

[Rex Kickass]

In my neck of the woods - 2000+ jobs to be lost at end of the year when a plant closes near GR. The jobs are being moved to Mexico. Another plant is shutting down in Holland - 880 jobs lost. Another one may be dropping anywhere between 400 to 1100 jobs this week.

 

General unemployment may not be so bad - but in the states that will hinge the election - - unemployment is on the increase in most of those states.

[kapkomet]

I have a few theories about this since you asked.  We are in the midst of a jobless recovery.  Companies are pushing their exsisting employees harder because of the costs of hiring people.  Remember it isn't just a salary that gets paid, but the average worker makes costs more than his salary in benefits and insurances, on top of his salary.  (maybe kapkomet can give you a little more real world numbers there).  I also think it is because most of the economy is stagnent, which leads me to my next conclusion.

 

The majority of the recovery is based on the increased spending from the military and security complex.  Think of all of the extra spending in those areas.  "Defense" spending is about about 50% since 2001.

 

Inflation is on the horizion, poised to breakout later this fall to winter.  Many, many commodities are at long term highs.  For example- Gas all time real dollar high.  Soybeans 15 year high.  Gold 20 year highs.  Crude Oil 10 year highs.  Steel 30 year high.  Need I go on?

 

So in whole, the economy is OK.  Jobs are basically flat.  It should be recovering enough to send a signal to the rest of the economy to send the illusion of full recovery, which would kick it into a real recovery.

Some random thoughts:

 

Most of the time in a presidential election year, people don't spend a lot of money, they await the results of an election before doing any major purchashing (except for me, we go and build a house, but that's another discussion - like, I'm doing my part to help the economy, hehe). Monetary policy doesn't change much in an election year.

 

Salary costs - right now, it's true, benefits cost about 25-30% more then the base salary on average, and this can be much higher depending on medical history of the people at the company.

 

Productivity - companies are doing more with less people, the exception being small companies that carve out a niche market and grow (I've personally hired two people for my department in the last 60 days).

 

As a hiring manager, it's rough out there, people are starting to get antsy and want more $$ but the economy has not given back enough jobs to make the rates available for pay to rise much - we're still in the mode of there's enough talent out there to pay people less.