Gene Honda Civic Posted April 10, 2004 Share Posted April 10, 2004 This was from a few days ago, but I didn't see it appear here. Baseball Prospectus Chicago White Sox Small-Ball Bugbear: "He told me to run, run, run," said Willie Harris about the green light given him by Ozzie Guillen this year, consequences be damned. "He told me if I get thrown out, who cares? Be aggressive." There has been a lot of talk--and fear--this spring about Guillen's desire to turn his Gashouse Gorillas into a bunch of waterbugs, but that's not the case. What he wants is a team that can score by putting pressure on the defense when the bats are cold. He expects Harris to be his catalyst, his own Juan Pierre. While Guillen might have said that aggressiveness is a good thing even if it gets Harris thrown out sometimes, the stolen base is a tactical weapon only if you can succeed on well more than two-thirds of your attempts. If you get thrown out as often as, say, Luis Castillo did last year, you have crossed the point of diminishing returns. If you can't be successful at least 70% to 75% of the time, the play might not be worth your trouble, and the danger is even higher on a club that has as much power as the White Sox. With most of the lineup posing substantial extra-base threats, there's less reason to press for the extra base. Better to just wait and see if your teammates can pick you up. In the minor leagues Harris ran often and was pretty good at it. Here are his numbers over the last four seasons: Year Level SBA per PA Success 2000 Single-A 10.62 72% 2001 Double-A 8.15 77% 2002 Triple-A 8.54 70% 2003 Triple-A 9.75 75% Over 1,644 minor league plate appearances (not including times hit by a pitch), Harris attempted a steal once every nine times up. That's not quite as often as Juan Pierre but it's busier than Ray Durham has ever been. In fact, it's pretty close to how often Luis Aparicio ran. Harris' overall minor league success rate of 73% is within the range of acceptable risk, especially since he had two seasons of being safe on three of every four attempts. He has played about a half season at the major league level, and while he didn't run as often under Jerry Manuel as he did in the minors, when he did run he more than proved he was worthy of Guillen's confidence. In 319 major league plate appearances Harris has been safe on 20 of 22 attempts, a 91% success rate. So what does this mean for 2004? PECOTA projects Harris to be a part-time player, with only 250 pate appearances. If that bears out and Harris runs at his customary pace, he'll try for about 25 steals and be successful 19 times. Not bad but not exactly the catalyst of a cold offense. But it appears as though Harris has reclaimed his second base job after a slow start this spring. If he gets 500 plate appearances this year and runs like he did in the minors, he should have about 50 stolen base attempts, and if he runs as well as he has, he'll finish the year with about 35 steals, which would have been good enough for fourth in the American League last year. He might lose some OBP, but if he Guillen cuts him loose he'll still get his chances. The key will be how much above that 70% rate he can muster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonkeyKongerko Posted April 10, 2004 Share Posted April 10, 2004 Heh I just read this and was gonna make a post about it. Good article I thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted April 10, 2004 Author Share Posted April 10, 2004 Heh I just read this and was gonna make a post about it. Good article I thought. Yeah I thought it was a pretty good article... Though I think willie will be stealing more times per PA. around 1 every 7-8 (with ozzie givin' him the perpetual green light)... Those numbers work out like this.... 500/7 = 71 SBA -- 500/8 = 62 75% of 71 = 53 SB -- 70% of 62 = 43 SB My numbers have him stealing between 43 and 53 bags. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandoFan Posted April 10, 2004 Share Posted April 10, 2004 Speed on the pads is WAY more than just SB's. Years of watching Sox having to come up with 3 consecutive hits to get Konerko or Thomas home from 1st would tell you that. Obvisouly, Willie needs AT LEAST a 320 OBP to remain in the lead-off spot. But in order to be effective with that OBP, he'd have to swipe 40 bases in 48 or 50 attempts to really make an impact and justify Ozzie's philosophy. Hell, Paul O'Neil stole 22 in 25 att as a 37yo in 2001. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted April 10, 2004 Share Posted April 10, 2004 As Hawk and Dj said.. Willie Harris is going to be just fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AssHatSoxFan Posted April 10, 2004 Share Posted April 10, 2004 willie will be good for at least 40 steals if he can get on enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 10, 2004 Share Posted April 10, 2004 I LOVED him bunting the ball in his first AB today. He needs to do that at least once to twice a game. That is his future. Otherwise he won't be long for the majors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted April 10, 2004 Author Share Posted April 10, 2004 I LOVED him bunting the ball in his first AB today. He needs to do that at least once to twice a game. That is his future. Otherwise he won't be long for the majors. Why haven't we challenged A-rod with a bunt yet??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted April 10, 2004 Share Posted April 10, 2004 Why haven't we challenged A-rod with a bunt yet??? Damn good question. Although I will have to say that Willie's bunt was a PERFECT drag bunt. Just past the pitcher, away from the first baseman, and makes the secondbaseman make an impossible play. Now I would like to see someone like Jose test ARod. BTW killer Av Cheaty!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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